A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

I'm not a big fan of Arenado, but if we can, somehow, pull off a Yoshida plus ____ for Arenado and Helsley, I'd be thrilled. The money would be more for us, but see below. We'd add a RHB for a LHB. We'd greatly improve our defense. I'm not sure what else we'd have to add to make this happen, but I'd be willing to overpay.

Helsley only has one year left (about $7M last arb.)

Arenado makes $37M, $27M and $15M with an AAV of $30.6M, but COL is paying $5M for 2025 and 2016, so the Arenado part would come to $64M/3 vs $55M/3 for Yoshida. The savings on Helsley vs a top 4 FA RP'er would make up a big chunk of that.

Add a defensive catcher and we could go from a bottom 5 defense to a top 10 defense, assuming Story is healthy.

C: Add (Wong)

1B: Devers & Casas (improved but not good)

2B: Campbell and DHam (a plus defense at 2B)

SS: Story (plus, plus)

3B: Arenado (Devers) Plus

LF: Duran (Ref) Plus

CF: Rafaela (Duran/Anthony) Plus

RF: Abreu (Anthony) Plus

DH: Casas/Devers/Ref

Only 1B would be a below average defense. (Maybe Devers could be average after a couple months. His biggest negative is his inaccurate arm.)

[notin]

20 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

domino 6 - tell free agent pitchers they can even get some ABs and green lights to swing away (if they want) once a month, when we rest all our DHs. 

Barnum and Bailey are still ex-pitchers, and remember the days from Little League through high school when pitchers also played shortstop when they weren't on the mound, and batted clean-up.

How many times do you think Chaim thought of that when he was the flea markets?

Chaim drafted position players over pitchers because position players succeed more often.  Baseball Prospectus openly states they devalue “pitching prospects” because they don’t work out as often for a larger range of reasons, and abloom (along with former Astros GM James Click) is a former BP contributor.  And this approach worked very well.  The Sox had 3 prospects in the MLB.com top ten and four in the top 25.  Yes, none are pitchers.  But they have plenty of top prospects they can now deal for pitchers.  Andhad they spent more high draft picks on pitching for the sake of drafting pitching, they likely would not have so many quality position prospects (and also might have the same number of pitching prospects.  Go figure.)

Bloom’s approach might not have been popular among fans, but it absolutely has worked…

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Chaim drafted position players over pitchers because position players succeed more often.  Baseball Prospectus openly states they devalue “pitching prospects” because they don’t work out as often for a larger range of reasons, and abloom (along with former Astros GM James Click) is a former BP contributor.  And this approach worked very well.  The Sox had 3 prospects in the MLB.com top ten and four in the top 25.  Yes, none are pitchers.  But they have plenty of top prospects they can now deal for pitchers.  Andhad they spent more high draft picks on pitching for the sake of drafting pitching, they likely would not have so many quality position prospects (and also might have the same number of pitching prospects.  Go figure.)

Bloom’s approach might not have been popular among fans, but it absolutely has worked…

100%

It's also much easier to value pitchers that have been in the minors and majors for a few years vs HS and college. Sure, trades for pitchers can blow up, too, but not as often as high draft pick pitchers do.

It is a winning strategy. We have resisted trading high bat prospects for pitching, since the Sale trade, but we might be due for one, this winter. We may also end up trading Abreu for a pitchers, only because we have prospect Anthony loudly  knocking on the MLB door.

The best argument is a look at our draft history or top 50 pitching picks:

Abe Alvarez '03- 49th pick

Craig Hansen '05-26th, Clay Buchholz '05- 42nd, Michael Bowden '05- 47th

After 2005, it's been horrific....

Daniel Bard '06-28th, Kris Johnson 40th, Caleb Clay 44th

Casey Kelly '08-30th, Bryan Price 45th

Anthony Ranaudo '10 39th

Matt Barnes '11- 19th, Henry Owens 36th

Brian Johnson '12-31st, Pat Light 37th

Trey Ball 7th, T Stankiewicz 43

Michael Kopech 33rd

Jay Groome 12th

Tanner Houck 24th

Payton Tolle '24 -50th

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

100%

It's also much easier to value pitchers that have been in the minors and majors for a few years vs HS and college. Sure, trades for pitchers can blow up, too, but not as often as high draft pick pitchers do.

It is a winning strategy. We have resisted trading high bat prospects for pitching, since the Sale trade, but we might be due for one, this winter. We may also end up trading Abreu for a pitchers, only because we have prospect Anthony loudly  knocking on the MLB door.

The best argument is a look at our draft history or top 50 pitching picks:

Abe Alvarez '03- 49th pick

Craig Hansen '05-26th, Clay Buchholz '05- 42nd, Michael Bowden '05- 47th

After 2005, it's been horrific....

Daniel Bard '06-28th, Kris Johnson 40th, Caleb Clay 44th

Casey Kelly '08-30th, Bryan Price 45th

Anthony Ranaudo '10 39th

Matt Barnes '11- 19th, Henry Owens 36th

Brian Johnson '12-31st, Pat Light 37th

Trey Ball 7th, T Stankiewicz 43

Michael Kopech 33rd

Jay Groome 12th

Tanner Houck 24th

Payton Tolle '24 -50th

League-wide this happens.  If you look at the drafts on B-R.com and count the picks without hyperlinks (the ones without MLB overview pages) from 2010-2015, in the first round alone there are 72 players who never made their debut.  32 of them (44%) were pitchers.  And that’s just ones who didn’t debut.  Plenty did debut and flopped, like #1 overall pick Mark Appel.  Others were not as successful as the players drafted around them. For example, Jameson Taillon was taken at #2 overall, after Bryce Harper and before Manny Machado.  He’s had a decent MLB career, but he isn’t going to Cooperstown like the players chosen on both sides of him…

[moonslav59]

Trey Ball & Jay Groome.

Nuff said.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Trey Ball & Jay Groome.

Nuff said.

The dangers of drafting high school pitchers in the first round! 

[moonslav59]

Sign: Soto, Fried, Scott and Higgy.

Trade: Abreu, Cespedes, Fitts and Yoshida for Arenado & Helsley.

Rotation: Fried,  Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito (AAA: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins)

Pen: Scott, Helsley, Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks, Winckowski, Guerrero, Wilson

(AAA: Bernardino, Fulmer, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Campbell, Booser, Mata)

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Casas DH (1B)

4. Devers 1B (DH)

5. Story SS

6. Anthony RF

7. Campbell 2B

8. Arenado 3B

9. Higgy-Wong C

Bench: Rafaela, DHam, Refsnyder,  Wong/Higgy

(AAA: Teel, Gasper, Grissom, Romy, Mayer, Meidroth, Valdez, Sogard, Zavala)

[Larry Cook]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sign: Soto, Fried, Scott and Higgy.

Trade: Abreu, Cespedes, Fitts and Yoshida for Arenado & Helsley.

Rotation: Fried,  Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito (AAA: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins)

Pen: Scott, Helsley, Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks, Winckowski, Guerrero, Wilson

(AAA: Bernardino, Fulmer, Penrod, Kelly, Weissert, Campbell, Booser, Mata)

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Casas DH (1B)

4. Devers 1B (DH)

5. Story SS

6. Anthony RF

7. Campbell 2B

8. Arenado 3B

9. Higgy-Wong C

Bench: Rafaela, DHam, Refsnyder,  Wong/Higgy

(AAA: Teel, Gasper, Grissom, Romy, Mayer, Meidroth, Valdez, Sogard, Zavala)

That is a quality team! The bullpen got some serious juice 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

That is a quality team! The bullpen got some serious juice 

I was going to get greedy and add a trade for Crochet, but I'm already beyond the "realistic."

[Duran Is The Man]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was going to get greedy and add a trade for Crochet, but I'm already beyond the "realistic."

that would be a nice lineup. and i wouldn't be surprised if Bloom took that trade.

[harmony]

Everyone has a trade proposal for the Red Sox:

https://fansided.com/this-red-sox-mariners-trade-would-be-winning-backup-plan-for-boston-luis-castillo

😀😀😀

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

Everyone has a trade proposal for the Red Sox:

https://fansided.com/this-red-sox-mariners-trade-would-be-winning-backup-plan-for-boston-luis-castillo

😀😀😀

I'm a huge Jh Garcia fan, but I think I'd trade Abreu, Jh Garcia & Meidroth for Luis Castillo + 1/3 his contract (about $8M x 3 years.) It would lower Castillo's tax number to $13.6M.

I wonder what the trade would be like with no money involved- maybe drop García or Meidroth?

(I gotta say it: take away the money and add Yoshida and Garver- done deal.)

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm a huge Jh Garcia fan, but I think I'd trade Abreu, Jh Garcia & Meidroth for Luis Castillo + 1/3 his contract (about $8M x 3 years.) It would lower Castillo's tax number to $13.6M.

I wonder what the trade would be like with no money involved- maybe drop García or Meidroth?

(I gotta say it: take away the money and add Yoshida and Garver- done deal.)

Seattle has five SPs.  Apparently this time of year that’s considered an excess to be deadly from…

[Bellhorn04]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Trey Ball & Jay Groome.

Nuff said.

Casey Kelly?

[harmony]

9 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Casey Kelly?

Casey Kelly was 28 years old when this poster witnessed the right-hander getting shelled in a Triple A game (at the 2025 home of the A’s):

https://www.milb.com/gameday/aces-vs-river-cats/2018/04/28/543354/final/box

[Duran Is The Man]

59 minutes ago, notin said:

Seattle has five SPs.  Apparently this time of year that’s considered an excess to be deadly from…

they are definitely loaded with pitching talent. and i think Emerson Hancock and maybe Taylor Dollard and Logan Evans will eventually make it.

[notin]

52 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

they are definitely loaded with pitching talent. and i think Emerson Hancock and maybe Taylor Dollard and Logan Evans will eventually make it.

They’ll need them all, and more.  Most teams easily use 10+ starting pitchers over a 162 game season.

Seattle certainly could deal a SP more so than most other teams, but they’re really not likely to unless they want to shed Castillo’s salary, like in this deal.

[Larry Cook]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm a huge Jh Garcia fan, but I think I'd trade Abreu, Jh Garcia & Meidroth for Luis Castillo + 1/3 his contract (about $8M x 3 years.) It would lower Castillo's tax number to $13.6M.

I wonder what the trade would be like with no money involved- maybe drop García or Meidroth?

(I gotta say it: take away the money and add Yoshida and Garver- done deal.)

Castillo and garver for abreau, Meredith Garcia and yoshida solves a lot of problems for both teams!!! 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Castillo and garver for abreau, Meredith Garcia and yoshida solves a lot of problems for both teams!!! 

What problems does it solve for Seattle?

[Larry Cook]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

What problems does it solve for Seattle?

They get an immediate infielder upgrade and abreau improves their offense against right handed pitchers! Garcia gives them a nice prospect with some power. (Something they lack)

 And yoshida should help them with ticket sales as there is a large Asian population out there. 

plus they unload garver !!!!

win-win 

[vjcsmoke]

Red Sox signed a new pitcher. Justin Wilson from the Reds. The ERA and WHIP are terrible. I'm guessing this is a reclamation project on cheap money.

The 37-year-old posted a 5.59 ERA, 1.456 WHIP and 9.8 K/9 in 60 appearances (46 2/3 innings) for Cincinnati in 2024.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

What problems does it solve for Seattle?

Last year, their RF'er, Haniger, batted .620 and their DH, Garver, batted .627. Their overall numbers at those two positions were better (.716 & .673,) but adding a bat like Abreu to RF, while improving their RF defense would be a major boost. Yoshida is better than Haniger and Garver, their two primary DH's in 2024.

I'm not sure, if Meidroth wins the 3B job, but the Mariners had a .643 OPS at 3B in 2024.

I'm super high on Jh Garcia, but he's a year or two away.

The money part could be adjusted by us adding some cash going to the M's, but they do save some by swapping Castillo's deal for Yoshida's. $22.75M x 3 vs $18M x 3. While $17M does not seem like much, it might be enough to sign a RP'er for $9M x 2. If we add $5-10M in the deal, they could sign someone like Holmes and break even.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

They get an immediate infielder upgrade and abreau improves their offense against right handed pitchers! Garcia gives them a nice prospect with some power. (Something they lack)

 And yoshida should help them with ticket sales as there is a large Asian population out there. 

plus they unload garver !!!!

win-win 

Per Roster Resource, which admittedly is not official, their infield features Raley/Garver at 1b, Dylan Moore at 3b, and some guy named Ryan Bliss at 2b.  I’m not sure Chase Meidroth is an upgrade.  Meidroth strikes me as the type of player most teams already have, and the Mariners do have better infield prospects they can use.  Yoshida might be an upgrade at DH over Haniger, but only in the durability department, and that’s compromised by his recent surgery.   Plus is he really a draw for Asian fans? He’s not Ichiro, Shohei, Darvish or even Daisuke when it comes to being a Japanese icon.  
 

Abreu is an upgrade over Robles, as Mariner fans are more likely to see why the Nats let him go then see him continue the pace he set in Seattle.  But does that upgrade make this deal worth it when it ignores their weak infield?

[notin]

10 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

Red Sox signed a new pitcher. Justin Wilson from the Reds. The ERA and WHIP are terrible. I'm guessing this is a reclamation project on cheap money.

The 37-year-old posted a 5.59 ERA, 1.456 WHIP and 9.8 K/9 in 60 appearances (46 2/3 innings) for Cincinnati in 2024.

$1.5 mill and I’d lay money down he doesn’t finish the season in Boston…

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Per Roster Resource, which admittedly is not official, their infield features Raley/Garver at 1b, Dylan Moore at 3b, and some guy named Ryan Bliss at 2b.  I’m not sure Chase Meidroth is an upgrade.  Meidroth strikes me as the type of player most teams already have, and the Mariners do have better infield prospects they can use.  Yoshida might be an upgrade at DH over Haniger, but only in the durability department, and that’s compromised by his recent surgery.   Plus is he really a draw for Asian fans? He’s not Ichiro, Shohei, Darvish or even Daisuke when it comes to being a Japanese icon.  
 

Abreu is an upgrade over Robles, as Mariner fans are more likely to see why the Nats let him go then see him continue the pace he set in Seattle.  But does that upgrade make this deal worth it when it ignores their weak infield?

Would SEA do Mayer & Yoshida for Castillo and $15M?

Would BOS?

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Would SEA do Mayer & Yoshida for Castillo and $15M?

Would BOS?

Maybe in Seattle.  Mayer fits a need and certainly has more potential than Abreu.  Not sure Boston is up for that.

 

Witjout checking, I think that deal heavily favors Seattle on BTV…

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Maybe in Seattle.  Mayer fits a need and certainly has more potential than Abreu.  Not sure Boston is up for that.

 

Witjout checking, I think that deal heavily favors Seattle on BTV…

Castillo is a negative on BTV, but we all think that is wrong. I guess we could change the $15M to $24 or $27M to help even it out, but BTV frowns on that, too.

Maybe SEA could add another piece in the return, even if just a prospect.

How about Mayer, Meidroth & Yoshida for Castillo and Andres Munoz?

[harmony]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Per Roster Resource, which admittedly is not official, their infield features Raley/Garver at 1b, Dylan Moore at 3b, and some guy named Ryan Bliss at 2b.  I’m not sure Chase Meidroth is an upgrade.  Meidroth strikes me as the type of player most teams already have, and the Mariners do have better infield prospects they can use.  Yoshida might be an upgrade at DH over Haniger, but only in the durability department, and that’s compromised by his recent surgery.   Plus is he really a draw for Asian fans? He’s not Ichiro, Shohei, Darvish or even Daisuke when it comes to being a Japanese icon.  
 

Abreu is an upgrade over Robles, as Mariner fans are more likely to see why the Nats let him go then see him continue the pace he set in Seattle.  But does that upgrade make this deal worth it when it ignores their weak infield?

Boston fans pine for Seattle players more than Seattle fans pine for Boston players.

FWIW Steamer projects Wilyer Abreu with a 2025 WAR of 1.7 in 113 games and Victor Robles with a 2025 WAR of 2.1 in 130 games.

This year second baseman Ryan Bliss posted 0.4 fWAR in only 33 MLB games. In 2023 Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 26 HR, 110 R, 86 RBI with 55 SB across Double A and Triple A.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

Boston fans pine for Seattle players more than Seattle fans pine for Boston players.

C'mon harms.  Boston fans pine for pitching, that's all.  

And Seattle fans probably wouldn't object to getting one of the Sox big 4 prospects, I don't think. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, harmony said:

Boston fans pine for Seattle players more than Seattle fans pine for Boston players.

FWIW Steamer projects Wilyer Abreu with a 2025 WAR of 1.7 in 113 games and Victor Robles with a 2025 WAR of 2.1 in 130 games.

This year second baseman Ryan Bliss posted 0.4 fWAR in only 33 MLB games. In 2023 Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 26 HR, 110 R, 86 RBI with 55 SB across Double A and Triple A.

We know you think every SEA starter is better than our starters.

Sox fans probably overvalue SEA pitchers due to park factors inflating their stats.

When looking at a trade that involves Castillo and Yoshida, I think the expected further decline of Castillo should be considered. I also think figuring the money saved by SEA would be used to upgrade another area of need should be considered.

I know you do not value Mayer & Meidroth as highly as Sox fans or BTV, but having him on your roster would improve it and possibly allow you to trade an IF prospect or player to make room for them. (Neither need to be on the 40, which is a benefit, although not for 2025, if the plan is to play one or both.)