A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Betts was 2 years older at the start of his extension than Soto will be at the start of his contract.

But that sure doesn't account for a $300 million difference, does it

  

True, but Soto might get 14-15 years. Soto has two more years in prime, but both contracts may end up around the same age on the back end.

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Betts was 2 years older at the start of his extension than Soto will be at the start of his contract.

But that sure doesn't account for a $300 million difference, does it

  

(((365x1.65)/12)X14) =702.625 

 

it’s perfectly in balance.

 

1.65 is 5 years of MLB player inflation 

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Even if we sign Soto, I won't be able to avoid asking, "Why didn't we just extend Betts for half that cost?"

Because betts wanted to leave 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Because betts wanted to leave 

He wanted to test free agency and sign with the highest bidder, even if it was Boston.

[harmony]

On 11/28/2024 at 8:14 AM, moonslav59 said:

I agree, and of course, more will be needed to offset the negative value Yoshida has, but those two are in negative territory, as well.

As much as BTV says Luis Castillo is negative, I'm not buying it. I do think SEA can sign someone like him for the same AAV, but they have no use for Yoshida, even if we take back Haniger and Garver, as well.

I'm not sure AZ or STL have "use," either.

AZ wants to shed salary, so I'm not sure taking Yoshida saves them what they want.

Arendado is blocking other players, and it's not so much about money for STL, but they would have to like getting out from the $74M/3 owed him (32>27>15). Yoshida is owed  $55.8M/3 ($18.6M x 3.)

The worst part for the Sox is the added $12M to the lux tax budget x 3 years.

The suggested deal that brings us Helsley with Arenado, looks too good to be true, and of course, it does not include Yoshida, but it does include $15M.

Arenado, Helsley, Graceffo & $15M for Cespedes and Fitts.  Maybe tweak it to Arenado, Helsley and no cash or Graceffo for Cespedes, Fitts, Yoshida and Teel. (We can sign Higgy.)

Baseball Trade Values has announced that its valuation numbers have been updated to "correlate more closely with what we"ve been seeing in the market."

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

All five Seattle starting pitchers received valuation boosts.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, harmony said:

Baseball Trade Values has announced that its valuation numbers have been updated to "correlate more closely with what we"ve been seeing in the market."

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/

All five Seattle starting pitchers received valuation boosts.

So, they are still messed up, then.

LOL.

 

[Larry Cook]

Messenger and pham look like good rule 5 bullpen candidates for us. 

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He wanted to test free agency and sign with the highest bidder, even if it was Boston.

But then signed an extension with the Dodgers before free agency? I'm not sure what the truth is around the whole thing, but there's a lot of guesswork that's stated as fact around this topic.

As an aside, Zach Scott (former vice president of baseball research and development - who eventually served as assistant general manager), said: 

“We only signed Sale once we knew we couldn’t sign Mookie,” Scott shared.

“We made our best and final [offer] to Mookie in spring 2019, and once it was clear it wasn’t happening, we almost immediately pivoted to Sale. I guess all that cash was burning a hole in someone’s pocket."

 

Two f*** ups in one. 

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, Zack Scott has been talking a lot about the Mookie situation.  One thing I seized on is that he seemed to confirm that the final offer to Mookie was close to, but under, $300 million.  He confirmed the $200 million offer and then said the next year they offered "almost $100 million more."

This supports Mookie's claim that their offers never got to $300 million.     

[Hugh2]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, Zack Scott has been talking a lot about the Mookie situation.  One thing I seized on is that he seemed to confirm that the final offer to Mookie was close to, but under, $300 million.  He confirmed the $200 million offer and then said the next year they offered "almost $100 million more."

This supports Mookie's claim that their offers never got to $300 million.     

I've been following Zack Scotts twitter and listening to his dialogue. 

He really really really makes it sound like the Sox wanted and tried to extend Mookie but gave up after 2019.

[Hugh2]

53 minutes ago, Hitch said:

But then signed an extension with the Dodgers before free agency? I'm not sure what the truth is around the whole thing, but there's a lot of guesswork that's stated as fact around this topic.

As an aside, Zach Scott (former vice president of baseball research and development - who eventually served as assistant general manager), said: 

“We only signed Sale once we knew we couldn’t sign Mookie,” Scott shared.

“We made our best and final [offer] to Mookie in spring 2019, and once it was clear it wasn’t happening, we almost immediately pivoted to Sale. I guess all that cash was burning a hole in someone’s pocket."

 

Two f*** ups in one. 

There was this little thing called Covid that year that may of had an impact on thought processes. 

$360 million dollars in a world filled with much more uncertainty is worth a lot more than $360 in a more predictable world. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I've been following Zack Scotts twitter and listening to his dialogue. 

He really really really makes it sound like the Sox wanted and tried to extend Mookie but gave up after 2019.

Agreed.  But he also confirmed they had a number they were unwilling to exceed, and that was non-negotiable.  And in retrospect, their number was clearly too low.  So it still works out to they screwed up hugely.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

There was this little thing called Covid that year that may of had an impact on thought processes. 

$360 million dollars in a world filled with much more uncertainty is worth a lot more than $360 in a more predictable world. 

Maybe all the more reason the Sox should have kept Mookie, if it was thought that prices might be affected by COVID.

And when you look at the basket of crap they got back for him...

Not enough lipstick in the world to cover this pig.

[Hugh2]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Agreed.  But he also confirmed they had a number they were unwilling to exceed.  And in retrospect, their number was clearly too low.  So it still works out to they screwed up hugely.

There's also a difference between paying someone $300 million when they're about to hit FA vs. a lesser figure when you're buying out more team controlled years. 

Some guys take the money, some guys bet on themselves.   That's the way it is. 

Take this group of players: Casas/Duran/Crawford/Anthony/Mayer/Teel/Campbell. 

One of those guys is going to be a star and sign a team friendly extension early. 

One of those guys is going to be a star and hold off no matter what. Kind of like when Soto turned down $440 million dollars in 2022 two years before he hit free agency, which would be closer to $585 dollars in 2025 money.  He bet on himself and it looks like it's going to pay off for him big time. 

Sox probably could have resigned Mookie, but it would have been at market value after he hit free agency.  Had he stayed in Boston when Covid hit and the world became a more uncertain place and Henry put $360 million dollars down in front of him could things of turned at differently? perhaps. 

But the dynamics that played out before that were not new or unusual. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe all the more reason the Sox should have kept Mookie, if it was thought that prices might be affected by COVID.

And when you look at the basket of crap they got back for him...

Not enough lipstick in the world to cover this pig.

Dude, nobody knew how crazy things were going to get on February 10th 2020.  

[Duran Is The Man]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe all the more reason the Sox should have kept Mookie.

And when you look at the basket of crap they got back for him...

Not enough lipstick in the world to cover this pig.

the Dodgers front office is run by talented professionals. the Red Sox FO....not so much.

[Bellhorn04]

With Mookie it all has to be viewed through the lens that he was and is one of the best ballplayers in history - a truly complete player, which is really hard to find.  You can't lump him in with regular good players.

Soto is great and yet he's not as good as Mookie.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Dude, nobody knew how crazy things were going to get on February 10th 2020.  

Are you really trying to use COVID as an excuse for losing Betts?

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Are you really trying to use COVID as an excuse for losing Betts?

what? lol I literally just said that at the time of the Betts trade nobody knew what type of impact Covid would have, must people didn't even know about it then. 

He was traded on Feb 10th, 2020 and most of the discussion probably took place the month BEFORE that. 

I speculate that Mookies decision to sign an extension with the Dodgers may have been impacted by that, which happened well into 2020 when the world turned to s***. 

[Hugh2]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Soto is great and yet he's not as good as Mookie.

Soto 25 Career 36.3 Fwar

Betts in Boston 26 34.9 Fwar. 

If Mookie Betts was born 5 years younger and they both hit free agency this year there would be a very strong argument that Soto is better.  He's literally just entering his prime and could be even better than he's been.  

[Hugh2]

I don't understand this we f***ed up on Mookie so why are we signing Juan Soto logic?

I mean, why not go further back.  We messed up with Babe Ruth so we should never have a good team again. 

I hope Soto happens, and I hope you all eat your words of defiance, and we are here celebrating winning seasons again and fighting over more superficial things. 

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

what? lol I literally just said that at the time of the Betts trade nobody knew what type of impact Covid would have, must people didn't even know about it then. 

He was traded on Feb 10th, 2020 and most of the discussion probably took place the month BEFORE that. 

I speculate that Mookies decision to sign an extension with the Dodgers may have been impacted by that, which happened well into 2020 when the world turned to s***. 

OK, well, it's all speculation, I get that.

But we also have to keep in mind that the Dodgers were an attractive destination in many ways, and that must have factored in as well.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't understand this we f***ed up on Mookie so why are we signing Juan Soto logic?

I mean, why not go further back.  We messed up with Babe Ruth so we should never have a good team again. 

I hope Soto happens, and I hope you all eat your words of defiance, and we are here celebrating winning seasons again and fighting over more superficial things. 

I appreciate your positivity.  I'm just venting.  The Chapman signing bummed me out and made me question the judgment of our front office all over again.  

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, well, it's all speculation, I get that.

But we also have to keep in mind that the Dodgers were an attractive destination in many ways, and that must have factored in as well.

Boston was a lot more attractive back in 2020 as well.  Just won a world series, most championships in this century la de dah dah dah. 

If anything I hope Mookie Betts taught Henry a lesson, and next time he gets a chance to sign young elite talent long term he jumps on it.  If he lands Soto, he's earned my respect back. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I appreciate your positivity.  I'm just venting.  The Chapman signing bummed me out and made me question the judgment of our front office all over again.  

I mean, it's $10 million 1 year.  That's pretty much what a good bench bat makes nowadays. 

If that's all they do for the pitching I'll be pissed too.

I think they get another reliever and an elite starter.  Also Chapman has a reputation of being very good with younger Latino players and that might be a very positive thing with guys like Bello/Rafaela/Abreu and even Devers around. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Boston was a lot more attractive back in 2020 as well.  Just won a world series, most championships in this century la de dah dah dah. 

Except things went to s**t in 2019, with the firing of Dombrowski a clear indicator that all was not well at the top.

The bottom line is they didn't make an offer that was attractive enough.  

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He wanted to test free agency and sign with the highest bidder, even if it was Boston.

Not according to Zack Scott if you want to believe a former Assistant GM of the Sox. He would have signed with the Sox for less than LA's number, the Sox just didn't get there. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, Zack Scott has been talking a lot about the Mookie situation.  One thing I seized on is that he seemed to confirm that the final offer to Mookie was close to, but under, $300 million.  He confirmed the $200 million offer and then said the next year they offered "almost $100 million more."

This supports Mookie's claim that their offers never got to $300 million.     

Mookie would never lie to us. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Mookie would never lie to us. 

I never understood why he would.  He basically threw out the challenge to the media to follow up on it, and we got crickets.

[Duran Is The Man]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mookie would never lie to us. 

it is very easy for me to believe Mookie, considering how disingenuous the Sox front office has been since that time.