A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why sign Soto if you're only going to give him a mediocre starting rotation? Wouldn't you want Soto AND at least one of Fried/Burnes. 

Well it wont be a 1yr deal for Soto, but sure.  And I can see them improving the rotation via trade if they pay big for Soto and dont want a second huge cash outlay in the same offseason.

Also, pitching is less projectable.  Burnes is more likely to go to crap or get hurt than an equivalent bat.  Likewise, one of our 15 #3/4 starters is more likely to figure it out than an equivalent (average) starting hitter.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well it wont be a 1yr deal for Soto, but sure.  And I can see them improving the rotation via trade if they pay big for Soto and dont want a second huge cash outlay in the same offseason.

Also, pitching is less projectable.  Burnes is more likely to go to crap or get hurt than an equivalent bat.  Likewise, one of our 15 #3/4 starters is more likely to figure it out than an equivalent (average) starting hitter.

I think they got lightning in a bottle with Houck last season. I wouldn't expect it again this year. Trading for pitching without also providing that pitcher an immediate extension is a waste of farm resources IMO. 

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why sign Soto if you're only going to give him a mediocre starting rotation? Wouldn't you want Soto AND at least one of Fried/Burnes. 

I agree, but would this be enough?

Soto, Crochet, Scott & Higgy?

Soto, Pivetta, Holmes & Jansen?

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but would this be enough?

Soto, Crochet, Scott & Higgy?

Soto, Pivetta, Holmes & Jansen?

Pivetta? Really? 

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pivetta? Really? 

I'll take that as a resounding, "No."

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but would this be enough?

Soto, Crochet, Scott & Higgy?

Soto, Pivetta, Holmes & Jansen?

If you had made it Pivetta, Martin & Jansen, at least it would be funny.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'll take that as a resounding, "No."

The pitching needs to get better, not simply moonwalk into next season.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If you had made it Pivetta, Martin & Jansen, at least it would be funny.

Nasty Nate, Pivetta, Martin, Jansen, Kelly & Kimbrel

Play all the hits. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The pitching needs to get better, not simply moonwalk into next season.

I'm not saying I'd be happy with that plan.

I was just trying to see at what level you'd say no.

You did not answer about Soto, Crochet, Scott & Higgy.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not saying I'd be happy with that plan.

I was just trying to see at what level you'd say no.

You did not answer about Soto, Crochet, Scott & Higgy.

Crochet is decent, but it would depend on what they traded for him. That team is an improvement on last year, but isn't going to win the WS. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Pivetta? Really? 

You are Mr. xFIP man, right?

2023-2024 250+ IP

18. Pivetta 3.52

19. Nola 3.54

20. Gallen 3.54 & Ragans

22. Kirby 3.60

25. Flaherty 3.64

26. Burnes 3.67

28. Nate 3.70

30. Cole 3.72

Others below this: Cease, Houck, Castillo, Lugo...

(I'm not saying I want to bring back the same rotation + Gio, but if we spend on Soto and the pen, I'm not sure how much JH will give to a SP'er.

Nick has a 3.92 xFIP over the last 4 seasons, while ranking 23rd in IP.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Crochet is decent, but it would depend on what they traded for him. That team is an improvement on last year, but isn't going to win the WS. 

We won't be trading any starters, except maybe Abreu.

Let's say the trade is Mayer for Crochet. We also add Soto, Scott and Higgy.

I'd say we'd be a top 6-8 team, on paper.

- O'Neall

+ Gio & Hendriks and the 4 players listed above.

I won't mention full seasons by Story, casas, Slaten and others, as there will be other injuries in 2025.

I'm not a big Crochet fan. He's only gone over 65 IP, once in his whole baseball career, including college.

If we also added Holmes, Hoffman or Estevez, I might say we are top 4-6 in MLB.

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You are Mr. xFIP man, right?

2023-2024 250+ IP

18. Pivetta 3.52

19. Nola 3.54

20. Gallen 3.54 & Ragans

22. Kirby 3.60

25. Flaherty 3.64

26. Burnes 3.67

28. Nate 3.70

30. Cole 3.72

Others below this: Cease, Houck, Castillo, Lugo...

(I'm not saying I want to bring back the same rotation + Gio, but if we spend on Soto and the pen, I'm not sure how much JH will give to a SP'er.

Nick has a 3.92 xFIP over the last 4 seasons, while ranking 23rd in IP.

With Nick, his xFIP looks great because of his k/bb ratio, but he's getting hit hard (10th percentile barrel, 6th percentile GB rate). A lot of metrics surrounding Pivetta limit his ceiling to 3rd starter at best and we've seen that since 2020. 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With Nick, his xFIP looks great because of his k/bb ratio, but he's getting hit hard (10th percentile barrel, 6th percentile GB rate). A lot of metrics surrounding Pivetta limit his ceiling to 3rd starter at best and we've seen that since 2020. 

Where are 700hitter and iortiz?  Would love their thoughts on Pivetta possibly getting $20 million a year.

😄 

[mvp 78]

50 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We won't be trading any starters, except maybe Abreu.

Let's say the trade is Mayer for Crochet. We also add Soto, Scott and Higgy.

I'd say we'd be a top 6-8 team, on paper.

- O'Neall

+ Gio & Hendriks and the 4 players listed above.

I won't mention full seasons by Story, casas, Slaten and others, as there will be other injuries in 2025.

I'm not a big Crochet fan. He's only gone over 65 IP, once in his whole baseball career, including college.

If we also added Holmes, Hoffman or Estevez, I might say we are top 4-6 in MLB.

Top 6? No. I'm not sure these moves get them to 90 wins (7 teams won 90 games last year). Gio might not have a full season in him and is coming off TJS. I don't know if anyone should expect anything significant out of Hendriks. Does a part time 35 year old catcher that has had one good offensive season largely due to his particular home field (665 OPS away, park factor is 7th for RHB HR's) have that much of an effect? 

[moonslav59]

Say we sign Soto, and not Burnes or Fried, what would it take to make us top 4-6 contenders?

Two SP'ers from Nate, Flaherty, Manaea (one along with Severino or Pivetta?)

Two RP'ers from Scott, Hoffman, Esteves and Holmes.

Is 3 from these lits enough, assuming we add a catcher, too?

Which 3?

I suppose we could trade for someone like Crochet and subtract a FA signing.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Top 6? No. I'm not sure these moves get them to 90 wins (7 teams won 90 games last year). Gio might not have a full season in him and is coming off TJS. I don't know if anyone should expect anything significant out of Hendriks. Does a part time 35 year old catcher that has had one good offensive season largely due to his particular home field (665 OPS away, park factor is 7th for RHB HR's) have that much of an effect? 

Top 6 or 8, yes.

Do more and maybe top 4-6.

On adding a catcher, I'm looking for a defensive upgrade not offense.

[drewski6]

IMO, we'd absolutely have a chance at a playoff spot with the aforementioned player combos. Of course, things would need to break in the right direction (like usual), e.g. Story staying healthy, one or more prospect playing well, Houck showing last year was no fluke...

You add Soto, Story, and one or 2 pitchers (Fried and Crochet for example) along with some pen help, and it would be hard not to be excited for next year.

Certainly not a team that should be throwing in the towel before the season opens

[drewski6]

This is baseball, did anyone expect the WS to be Rangers vs Dbacks 2 years ago?

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With Nick, his xFIP looks great because of his k/bb ratio, but he's getting hit hard (10th percentile barrel, 6th percentile GB rate). A lot of metrics surrounding Pivetta limit his ceiling to 3rd starter at best and we've seen that since 2020. 

I'm not a huge FIP fan, but it has some value. I agree, Pivetta has been about a #3 or #4 for us. At times, he pitched like a 2 and others like a 5.

I will say, I'd rather have him starting than Bello or Crawford and probably even Giolito, but I do not like the idea of trying to improve the rotation by upgrading the #3, slightly. I'm not for signing Pivetta.

We need and ace, because I'm not sure Houck can even be a #2, next year. I think we have to hope he can be, or someone else jumps up a slot or two.

I'd prefer Fried. I'd like to get Fried and Crochet/Castillo/Lopez vis trade and then sign Scott and a catcher, but that's a dream.

It is likely too much to ask for Soto, Fried, Holmes and D Jansen, with maybe an Abreu trade for another RP'er.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

This is baseball, did anyone expect the WS to be Rangers vs Dbacks 2 years ago?

This about where we might look, on paper. That usually assumes normal injuries to all teams, and I like our bench.

The return of Story is a big need, unless Mayer/Campbell shine.

Seeing what Gio and hendriks can do might make a difference.

Fulls years from Casas, Slaten, Devers and others might be a big boost, but we know someone will get hurt.

I'd still like to see someone else at 3B, with Devers and Casas sharing 1B-DH duty. Abreu or prospects + Yoshida + for Arenado is one solution, but maybe Campbell/Mayer/Grissom/Meidroth can cobble together to handle 3B in 2025.

I do think this could be a top 4-6. COULD.

Fried, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford (Criswell/Priester/Fitts/Dobbins)

Scott, Holmes, Whitlock, Slaten, Hendriks, Wink, Guerrero, Wilson/Bernardino

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Casas Dh/1B

4. Devers 1B/DH (Refsnyder)

5. Story SS

6. Anthony RF

7. Campbell 2B (DHam/Grissom)

8. Arenado 3B

9. Wong- D Jansen

You may say I'm a dreamer...

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This about where we might look, on paper. That usually assumes normal injuries to all teams, and I like our bench.

The return of Story is a big need, unless Mayer/Campbell shine.

Seeing what Gio and hendriks can do might make a difference.

Fulls years from Casas, Slaten, Devers and others might be a big boost, but we know someone will get hurt.

I'd still like to see someone else at 3B, with Devers and Casas sharing 1B-DH duty. Abreu or prospects + Yoshida + for Arenado is one solution, but maybe Campbell/Mayer/Grissom/Meidroth can cobble together to handle 3B in 2025.

I do think this could be a top 4-6. COULD.

Fried, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford (Criswell/Priester/Fitts/Dobbins)

Scott, Holmes, Whitlock, Slaten, Hendriks, Wink, Guerrero, Wilson/Bernardino

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Casas Dh/1B

4. Devers 1B/DH (Refsnyder)

5. Story SS

6. Anthony RF

7. Campbell 2B (DHam/Grissom)

8. Arenado 3B

9. Wong- D Jansen

You may say I'm a dreamer...

I dont think Yoshi is going anywhere.  But I think with Soto and one of Burnes, Crochet, Fried....Play freaking ball!  Im not sure if thats top 4 or top 6 or top 8 .... But its certainly a much improved team when you consider that likely one of Story,Campbell,Anthony is going to stay healthy and be a significant addition. And you are still adding Gio an Im sure they wont just stop and Soto and 1 SP either.

[drewski6]

Id rather do Yoshida, Casas and Abreu for Vladdy.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

This is baseball, did anyone expect the WS to be Rangers vs Dbacks 2 years ago?

No, the new Wild Card setup has increased the crapshoot factor a lot.  Every year is different, of course.  This year was not so much a crapshoot.  

The 2022-2024 Rangers pulled a 2012-2014 Red Sox-outhouse to penthouse and back to outhouse.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I admit I will be blown away if Soto signs with Boston. And let me say it first: if it happens, Rafael Devers will be so happy -- even if he moves to first base -- he'll have a career year with the bat.

But adding Soto and only one new starting pitcher (like some of the projections here) might boost the Red Sox to a wild card, but it's not enough to win a ring. More potential rookies in the starting line-up will be exciting, but Boston still needs to add at least two established guys each to both the rotation and the bullpen to make it real.

The trap every fan falls for every offseason is expecting all returning players to be at least as good as they were the previous year -- and that's never the case, because of regression, opponents' books exploiting weaknesses, and certainly injuries.

So please add multiple starting pitchers, beyond a Fried or Crochet; there are plenty of #2s available out there to stockpile. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think Yoshi is going anywhere.  But I think with Soto and one of Burnes, Crochet, Fried....Play freaking ball!  Im not sure if thats top 4 or top 6 or top 8 .... But its certainly a much improved team when you consider that likely one of Story,Campbell,Anthony is going to stay healthy and be a significant addition. And you are still adding Gio an Im sure they wont just stop and Soto and 1 SP either.

Soto was a 9 fWAR guy, this year.

Burnes or Fried were at about 3.5.

Scott, ____, Hendriks & Fulmer replacing Jansen & Martin might not add much.

Get a defensive catcher and add Crochet or someone like him and why not think 15+ wins more is possible?

[moonslav59]

Higgy signs for $13.5M/2 with the Rangers. (That includes the the $1M buyout for the year three $10M option.)

I kinda liked him as an option to bridge to Teel, but I'm not sure how good he is on defense, and that is what we need.

[Larry Cook]

One of the publications had crochet as 4.1 guy next year. Seems like a serious number 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

One of the publications had crochet as 4.1 guy next year. Seems like a serious number 

STEAMER projects 4.9 fWAR (He was 4.7, last year.)

Maybe, I'm too hung up on the risk of trading for a guy who has only pitched over 65 innings once, including college and the minors.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/1/2024 at 10:50 AM, harmony said:

A Seattle defensive outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles and Wilyer Abreu has some attraction (with Randy Arozarena moving to designated hitter and Luke Raley to first base). However, Abreu is not worth the price of an established, cost-controlled starting pitcher.

Marcelo Mayer is a fine prospect who, like all prospects, incuding Seattle's, face risky attrition rates.

why should we consider trading Mayer for Castillo.??  We can get Sasaki for nothing but $$ and keep our SS of the future.  No chance in the world I make that trade.