A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

The Sox have two players who both led the league in something in 2023 and 2024. Who are they and what did they lead in?

Hint: both are pitchers and are under team control for 2025.

[Nick]

MassLive had an article on Luis Guerrero who spent last 24 days with the Sox. His 4 seam fastball averaged 97.5 mph, placing him in top 94th percentile. 

The club was 25th in average fastballs in 2023 and made it priority to improve in this area for 2024. But their ranking only improved to 20th this year.

The article states Luis has chance to open with the Sox in 2025.

What other bullpen arms do we have with elite fastballs?

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Nick said:

MassLive had an article on Luis Guerrero who spent last 24 days with the Sox. His 4 seam fastball averaged 97.5 mph, placing him in top 94th percentile. 

The club was 25th in average fastballs in 2023 and made it priority to improve in this area for 2024. But their ranking only improved to 20th this year.

The article states Luis has chance to open with the Sox in 2025.

What other bullpen arms do we have with elite fastballs?

 

 

 

I think Slaten can hit 99 mph, but I'm not sure I'd say he's elite, just yet.

Penrod hits 98, but he has a lot to prove. Whitlock touched 97 and has some nasty complimentary pitches.

We have a bunch of pen arms in the 93-96 range, including Wink & Kelly, but they all seem far from elite.

I'm really low on our 5-8 slot RP'ers. I think they'd all make very nice 9-12 slot guys in AAA.

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, Nick said:

MassLive had an article on Luis Guerrero who spent last 24 days with the Sox. His 4 seam fastball averaged 97.5 mph, placing him in top 94th percentile. 

The club was 25th in average fastballs in 2023 and made it priority to improve in this area for 2024. But their ranking only improved to 20th this year.

The article states Luis has chance to open with the Sox in 2025.

What other bullpen arms do we have with elite fastballs?

Just because it's fast, doesn't mean it isn't hittable. Joe Kelly throws hard, punches hard and gets hit hard in many years (2015-2019, 2024).

[Nick]

Obviously location and movement factors in. Supposedly, Guerrero's 4 seamer tend to rise into right handed batters. He wants to throw it up high in the strike zone.

[moonslav59]

Our 100% healthy, pre-additions 13 man pitching staff could look like this:

SP: Houck, Giolito, Bello, Crawford, Fitts (Criswell)

RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Criswell, Wink, Fulmer, Guerrero, Penrod

C: Wong & Gasper (I think we add a back-up)

1B: Casas

2B: Grissom & DHam

SS: Story & Romy

3B: Devers

LF: Duran

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu & Refsnyder (Maybe Anthony & an Abreu or Yoshida trade)

DH: Yoshida

AAA Depth at or near ML ready:

SP: Priester, Dobbins, Gambrell, Wikelman, Drohan, I Coffey

RP: Weissert, Kelly, I Campbell, Bernardino, Booser, Shugart, Horn,  Mata

C: Teel (Hickey) 1B: B Gonzalez, 2B: Campbell, SS: Mayer, 3B: Meidroth, OF: Anthony, Sogard, Rosier, DH: EValdez/Binelas

 

[Randy Red Sox]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Like maybe...

Yoshida ($54M/3), $10M cash and Abreu for Gausman ($44M/2)

Gausman is clearly on the decline

[mvp 78]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Gausman is clearly on the decline

His 4 seamer and split finger are still plus pitches per statcast. He tried using a sinker this year that he hadn't thrown since 2017 and it went very poorly. His slider is a below average pitch a well. Hard to really say if it's a decline or just one bad year. 

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His 4 seamer and split finger are still plus pitches per statcast. He tried using a sinker this year that he hadn't thrown since 2017 and it went very poorly. His slider is a below average pitch a well. Hard to really say if it's a decline or just one bad year. 

He also finished the year very strong.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He also finished the year very strong.

Last 14 G: 2.90 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 90 IP, 9 QS

Sox could have used that after July 1!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A rational front office doesn't make radical changes to a .500 team on the verge of transitioning several minor league All-Stars into the lineup.

The simplest and absolutely least expensive moves are to just make room for the new guys. 

Primarily, trade from surplus -- for example, lefty-swinging outfielders or middle infield prospects.

Breslow and Company are too smart to create new holes by dealing Casas -- with zero MLB-ready first basemen to replace him... or move Devers to 1B -- with zero MLB experience at the position, and with zero MLB-ready third basemen to replace him.

A major overhaul might make sense for a club that lost the most games in history, like the White Sox... but not for a break-even team like the Red Sox, with help already on the way.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

A rational front office doesn't make radical changes to a .500 team on the verge of transitioning several minor league All-Stars into the lineup.

The simplest and absolutely least expensive moves are to just make room for the new guys. 

Primarily, trade from surplus -- for example, lefty-swinging outfielders or middle infield prospects.

Breslow and Company are too smart to create new holes by dealing Casas -- with zero MLB-ready first basemen to replace him... or move Devers to 1B -- with zero MLB experience at the position, and with zero MLB-ready third basemen to replace him.

A major overhaul might make sense for a club that lost the most games in history, like the White Sox... but not for a break-even team like the Red Sox, with help already on the way.

Maybe Breslow picks up a meth habit this offseason? 

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Last 14 G: 2.90 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 90 IP, 9 QS

Sox could have used that after July 1!

And he's been an innings chomper since 2020.

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Gausman is clearly on the decline

4.13 (102 ERA+) and 4.13 FIP Ages 22-27

4.94 (91) 3.65 Ages 28-29

3.07 (130) 2.71 Ages 30-31

3.49 (119) 3.37 Ages 32-33

It's concerning, but turning 34, soon, is what will help reduce the return package- that and his salary.

His drop in K/9 could be a sign of a bigger decline to come, but I'd still rather have him starting than anyone we have not named Houck.

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And he's been an innings chomper since 2020.

136 GS since 2020 is 5th in MLB. He's 6th in IP at 787.

3rd in fWAR.

Last 2 years: 5th in fWAR at 8.0 in 62 GS/ 366 IP (both top 15)

[Dipre]

MLBTR's Sep. 27 analysis on free agent SP

On my watch list I have Flaherty, Fried and Severino.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Dipre said:

MLBTR's Sep. 27 analysis on free agent SP

On my watch list I have Flaherty, Fried and Severino.

I'm not sure they sign a FA SP. I think it's more likely they trade for a younger one that we haven't discussed on here. Fried is a huge injury risk. Flaherty has had a crazy up and down career and Sox could have had him multiple times over the past few years if they wanted. Severino seems like a midrotation guy at best and the Sox are full of those already. 

[notin]

22 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Just because it's fast, doesn't mean it isn't hittable. Joe Kelly throws hard, punches hard and gets hit hard in many years (2015-2019, 2024).

Throwing hard also doesn’t make it a strike.  The Marlins once had a RHP named Tayron Guerrero who could routinely hit 103 mph.  But he couldn’t routinely get it over the plate…

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sure they sign a FA SP. I think it's more likely they trade for a younger one that we haven't discussed on here. Fried is a huge injury risk. Flaherty has had a crazy up and down career and Sox could have had him multiple times over the past few years if they wanted. Severino seems like a midrotation guy at best and the Sox are full of those already. 

I’m not sure what exactly constitutes the TOR starter the author wantsc and “I know one when I see one” isn’t an answer.   Houck was 6th in the AL and 11th in MLB in fWAR.  Does that constitute one or not? And if not, why not?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Throwing hard also doesn’t make it a strike.  The Marlins once had a RHP named Tayron Guerrero who could routinely hit 103 mph.  But he couldn’t routinely get it over the plate…

If 22 year old Greg Maddux showed up today pitching with the same velo he had in 1988, he'd carve up lineups even more than he did back then.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not sure what exactly constitutes the TOR starter 

Well, since TOR also stands for a rival city, how about a guy willing to meet all border requirements so he's eligible to pitch a big game there? What if the Sox have to play Montreal in a World Series! Or the expansion Saskatoon Sasquatches...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not sure what exactly constitutes the TOR starter the author wantsc and “I know one when I see one” isn’t an answer.   Houck was 6th in the AL and 11th in MLB in fWAR.  Does that constitute one or not? And if not, why not?

If Houck was going to replicate this over and over for the next few years, you can make the case he's in the conversation for sure. We've only seen this once out of him, so will the previous injury or performance issues come back? 

180 IP and a 3.00 ERA is basically a TOTR guy now, right? It's not a CY season, but halfway through the season he looked like:

16 G, 2.18 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 103 IP

That's Skubal numbers. 

[notin]

On 10/2/2024 at 7:51 AM, moonslav59 said:

Like maybe...

Yoshida ($54M/3), $10M cash and Abreu for Gausman ($44M/2)

I don’t see Toronto dumping Gausman’s salary only to take on a more expensive player they have no need for, and Abreu doesn’t fill enough of a need for them to make it worthwhile.

 

Yoshida is going to be difficult to move, and I think he is extremely likely to be back in Boston next season as the starting DH (possibly against RHP only)…

[notin]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Well, since TOR also stands for a rival city, how about a guy willing to meet all border requirements so he's eligible to pitch a big game there? What if the Sox have to play Montreal in a World Series! Or the expansion Saskatoon Sasquatches...

Clearly I was not referring to the Canadian city and when I said TOR, I meant Torrington Municipal Airport in NY…

[Bellhorn04]

45 minutes ago, Dipre said:

MLBTR's Sep. 27 analysis on free agent SP

On my watch list I have Flaherty, Fried and Severino.

Hey Dipre, good to see you here.

Fried has been an elite talent, but there seem to be bad trends with his health and effectiveness.

Flaherty and Severino would definitely be on the list of guys they should be looking at. 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Houck was going to replicate this over and over for the next few years, you can make the case he's in the conversation for sure. We've only seen this once out of him, so will the previous injury or performance issues come back? 

180 IP and a 3.00 ERA is basically a TOTR guy now, right? It's not a CY season, but halfway through the season he looked like:

16 G, 2.18 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 103 IP

That's Skubal numbers. 

Skubal last year pitched like Houck this year.  I would think many considered him a TOR starter last year, even though it was only the second time he exceeded 0.6 fWAR…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hey Dipre, good to see you here.

Fried has been an elite talent, but there seem to be bad trends with his health and effectiveness.

Flaherty and Severino would definitely be on the list of guys they should be looking at. 

Maybe the Sox could re-unite high school teammates Fried, Flaherty and Giolito…

[Bellhorn04]

I think Henry neither wants to be Fried by Max nor suffer Burnes from Corbin.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t see Toronto dumping Gausman’s salary only to take on a more expensive player they have no need for, and Abreu doesn’t fill enough of a need for them to make it worthwhile.

 

Yoshida is going to be difficult to move, and I think he is extremely likely to be back in Boston next season as the starting DH (possibly against RHP only)…

How is $44M/3 more expensive than $44M/2?

I'm including $10M cash to TOr, and I'd give $10-15M more, if needed.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think Henry neither wants to be Fried by Max nor suffer Burnes from Corbin.

Will he settle for having his jugular Severino’d?