A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

You have lost all perspective. 

Respectfully, I think you have. We are not going to sign Teoscar and good pen arm... not even Estevez.

Chapman+ Estevez + Wilson is a step down from Jansen & Martin, and the pen was our biggest weakness over the second half of 2024. It was the worst in MLB, and it will be the same or worse, on paper.

Teoscar might be as good as the 2024 O'Neill, but go ahead and call it a plus, and I am far from assuming we add him. The O would be about the same. The D should get better, but that depends on Story and how little Wong catches. Maybe we're even going into the rotation.

I like our rotation depth better than 2024, but it takes a very rosy "perspective" to have hope in Sandoval giving us anything, this year and Buehler doing something he hasn't done in 4 years. How is thinking Buehler will do well, based on a 10 inning stretch, a bad perspective?

Okay...

Crochet>>> Pivetta

Houck=Houck

Bello= Bello

Gio <???> Crawford

Yea!!! We have one plus over 2024! Schedule the parade!

This winter ha ssucked, and adding Teoscar and Estevez might squeek us into the playoffs, but no way should we be viewed as  a serious contender, even with rose-colored glasses on.

 

[Bellhorn04]

All of a sudden the Red Sox have 4 starting pitchers (Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval) who have:

a) never pitched for us before;

b) recorded at least one season with an fWAR of 3.7 or higher.

[mvp 78]

Time to turn Bello into a high leverage reliever. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Time to turn Bello into a high leverage reliever. 

Not the worst idea.  Although I still have faith in him as a starter…

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All of a sudden the Red Sox have 4 starting pitchers (Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval) who have:

a) never pitched for us before;

b) recorded at least one season with an fWAR of 3.7 or higher.

And a RP that has never pitched for the Sox before but has had a season as high of 3.2 fWAR…

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

All of a sudden the Red Sox have 4 starting pitchers (Crochet, Buehler, Giolito, Sandoval) who have:

a) never pitched for us before;

b) recorded at least one season with an fWAR of 3.7 or higher.

c) None had more than 146 IP in 2024.

Crochet: Only pitched over 65 IP once from 2018 (college) to 2024 and never over 146 (2024.)

Buehler: 3 season not going over 76 IP

Sandoval: never gone over 149 IP

Gio: 185 in 2023, but a bad ERA that season (4.88)

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

And a RP that has never pitched for the Sox before but has had a season as high of 3.2 fWAR…

Hendriks 3.9 in 2019 (2.7 in 2021)

Chapman 3.2 plus 3 seasons between 2.5 and 2.7)

We are living in the past with these guys.

[a700hitter]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Time to turn Bello into a high leverage reliever. 

Does he have the command to be a high leverage reliever?

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Not the worst idea.  Although I still have faith in him as a starter…

That makes one of us.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

Does he have the command to be a high leverage reliever?

Command? They just brought in Aroldis Champan. They aren't worried about command. 

[Hitch]

49 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Respectfully, I think you have. We are not going to sign Teoscar and good pen arm... not even Estevez.

Chapman+ Estevez + Wilson is a step down from Jansen & Martin, and the pen was our biggest weakness over the second half of 2024. It was the worst in MLB, and it will be the same or worse, on paper.

Teoscar might be as good as the 2024 O'Neill, but go ahead and call it a plus, and I am far from assuming we add him. The O would be about the same. The D should get better, but that depends on Story and how little Wong catches. Maybe we're even going into the rotation.

I like our rotation depth better than 2024, but it takes a very rosy "perspective" to have hope in Sandoval giving us anything, this year and Buehler doing something he hasn't done in 4 years. How is thinking Buehler will do well, based on a 10 inning stretch, a bad perspective?

Okay...

Crochet>>> Pivetta

Houck=Houck

Bello= Bello

Gio <???> Crawford

Yea!!! We have one plus over 2024! Schedule the parade!

This winter ha ssucked, and adding Teoscar and Estevez might squeek us into the playoffs, but no way should we be viewed as  a serious contender, even with rose-colored glasses on.

 

It's not even Christmas and we've made a huge trade for a top of the rotation starter, been involved right to the end on Soto while bidding 700m for him, bid a substantial offer on Fried, added another starter with big upside and some smaller pieces and still you moan. 

 

I'm personally happy we didn't get Soto or Fried for their deals. But then I don't have a foot-stamping need to see money spent just because. The FO seems to have learned lessons from the Sale and Price deals. A pity some of the fans haven't.

[Michigan Adam2]

I think the Soxx have gotten the quantity part filled up.  They also have the economical FA signings quota filled.  Time to turn a little of the excess in OF etc into 1 or 2 quality options.  Whether that is cease, arendo, teoscar, etc.  You have to remember that the sox will have at least if not all 3 of their top prospects ready to go sometime in 2025.  Right now there is no room for them without DFA assets that would be better utilized as trade ammunition.  I'm thinking hamiliton, grissom, abreau, crawford/giolito, yoshida.  can 4 of those 5 plus a couple farm hands bring you arendo and cease , or at least an excellant SS/3B plus a top 3 starter?

[Brock Beauchamp]

55 minutes ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

I think the Soxx have gotten the quantity part filled up.  They also have the economical FA signings quota filled.  Time to turn a little of the excess in OF etc into 1 or 2 quality options.  Whether that is cease, arendo, teoscar, etc.  You have to remember that the sox will have at least if not all 3 of their top prospects ready to go sometime in 2025.  Right now there is no room for them without DFA assets that would be better utilized as trade ammunition.  I'm thinking hamiliton, grissom, abreau, crawford/giolito, yoshida.  can 4 of those 5 plus a couple farm hands bring you arendo and cease , or at least an excellant SS/3B plus a top 3 starter?

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

It's not even Christmas and we've made a huge trade for a top of the rotation starter, been involved right to the end on Soto while bidding 700m for him, bid a substantial offer on Fried, added another starter with big upside and some smaller pieces and still you moan. 

I'm personally happy we didn't get Soto or Fried for their deals. But then I don't have a foot-stamping need to see money spent just because. The FO seems to have learned lessons from the Sale and Price deals. A pity some of the fans haven't.

I'm supposed to be happy when we fall short on top players?

Yes, I moan and will keep moaning when we sign projects instead of top quality and dependable players.

I think Fried got the same AAV as Buehler + Sandoval, so excuse me, if I'm not thrilled about that.

I love the Crochet trade, but we had 4-5 major holes to fill and we filled one.

No Catcher.

No improved defense.

No RHBP.

No improved pen.

I'm glad your Christmas will be merry.

 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm supposed to be happy when we fall short on top players?

Yes, I moan and will keep moaning when we sign projects instead of top quality and dependable players.

I think Fried got the same AAV as Buehler + Sandoval, so excuse me, if I'm not thrilled about that.

I love the Crochet trade, but we had 4-5 major holes to fill and we filled one.

No Catcher.

No improved defense.

No RHBP.

No improved pen.

I'm glad your Christmas will be merry.

 

Who are these top quality dependable players you talk of? Whst are you jealous of that we've missed out on so far?

Snell would have been exciting but came with obvious health issues and went for a big outlay. Fried got an 8 year deal. Eight!

The fact you're trying to compare the AAV of Fried to Buehler and Sandoval in a post where I specifically referenced how bad the Sale and Price deals were show you're either willfully ignoring the main point, or so far gone with your annoyance that there's no point conversing with you on it anyway.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

It's not even Christmas and we've made a huge trade for a top of the rotation starter, been involved right to the end on Soto while bidding 700m for him, bid a substantial offer on Fried, added another starter with big upside and some smaller pieces and still you moan. 

 

I'm personally happy we didn't get Soto or Fried for their deals. But then I don't have a foot-stamping need to see money spent just because. The FO seems to have learned lessons from the Sale and Price deals. A pity some of the fans haven't.

The SOX bidding on Soto was a major sham. They knew 700 mil wouldn't be enough.

Anyone here expecting Teo, Bregman, or Arenado to be a member of the SOX will be seriously disappointed.

Btw, I'm also pretty positive that the FO knew that what they offered Fried wasn't gonna be enough. Sham(e) on them.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

13 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The SOX bidding on Soto was a major sham. They knew 700 mil wouldn't be enough.

Anyone here expecting Teo, Bregman, or Arenado to be a member of the SOX will be seriously disappointed.

Btw, I'm also pretty positive that the FO knew that what they offered Fried wasn't gonna be enough. Sham(e) on them.

Obviously, this skullduggery by the SOX FO and ownership has convinced some fans that the SOX tried to obtain Soto and Fried. No they didn't.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The good news: The SOX still have their 3 top prospects.

The bad news: They're still prospects.

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Respectfully, I think you have. We are not going to sign Teoscar and good pen arm... not even Estevez.

Chapman+ Estevez + Wilson is a step down from Jansen & Martin, and the pen was our biggest weakness over the second half of 2024. It was the worst in MLB, and it will be the same or worse, on paper.

Teoscar might be as good as the 2024 O'Neill, but go ahead and call it a plus, and I am far from assuming we add him. The O would be about the same. The D should get better, but that depends on Story and how little Wong catches. Maybe we're even going into the rotation.

I like our rotation depth better than 2024, but it takes a very rosy "perspective" to have hope in Sandoval giving us anything, this year and Buehler doing something he hasn't done in 4 years. How is thinking Buehler will do well, based on a 10 inning stretch, a bad perspective?

 

The Sox bullpen last year relied on Jansen, Martin, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Kelly, Winckowski and at one point, Chase Anderson.

This year they have Hendriks, Slaten, Chapman, Whitlock, Wilson, Adams, Guerrero and maybe Fulmer.

It might be better.  It might be worse.  It’s definitely been overhauled…

[Soxlover]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Who are these top quality dependable players you talk of? Whst are you jealous of that we've missed out on so far?

Snell would have been exciting but came with obvious health issues and went for a big outlay. Fried got an 8 year deal. Eight!

The fact you're trying to compare the AAV of Fried to Buehler and Sandoval in a post where I specifically referenced how bad the Sale and Price deals were show you're either willfully ignoring the main point, or so far gone with your annoyance that there's no point conversing with you on it anyway.

So, you referenced 2 bad deals and that makes any disagreement a debate stopper?

well, I failed to mention it. You failed to mention that Fried is more dependable than Sandoval and Buehler, so does that mean I should say there is no point in conversing?

I never wanted Snell for the same reasons. Why bring him up when I mention being dependable.

[Soxlover]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox bullpen last year relied on Jansen, Martin, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Kelly, Winckowski and at one point, Chase Anderson.

This year they have Hendriks, Slaten, Chapman, Whitlock, Wilson, Adams, Guerrero and maybe Fulmer.

It might be better.  It might be worse.  It’s definitely been overhauled…

I’ve said it might be equal or better, but it is not better on paper. We have lots of ifs.

[jdc69]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The SOX bidding on Soto was a major sham. They knew 700 mil wouldn't be enough.

Anyone here expecting Teo, Bregman, or Arenado to be a member of the SOX will be seriously disappointed.

Btw, I'm also pretty positive that the FO knew that what they offered Fried wasn't gonna be enough. Sham(e) on them.

I think they just wanted to outbid the Yankees. It's win win he went to NL.

[vjcsmoke]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Respectfully, I think you have. We are not going to sign Teoscar and good pen arm... not even Estevez.

Chapman+ Estevez + Wilson is a step down from Jansen & Martin, and the pen was our biggest weakness over the second half of 2024. It was the worst in MLB, and it will be the same or worse, on paper.

Teoscar might be as good as the 2024 O'Neill, but go ahead and call it a plus, and I am far from assuming we add him. The O would be about the same. The D should get better, but that depends on Story and how little Wong catches. Maybe we're even going into the rotation.

I see no reason why the Red Sox would win a bidding war against LA Dodgers, Yankees, or Blue Jays for Teoscar. From the sounds of it he's looking for around 70-75m/3 years deal.

[vjcsmoke]

2 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The SOX bidding on Soto was a major sham. They knew 700 mil wouldn't be enough.

Anyone here expecting Teo, Bregman, or Arenado to be a member of the SOX will be seriously disappointed.

Btw, I'm also pretty positive that the FO knew that what they offered Fried wasn't gonna be enough. Sham(e) on them.

The Red Sox ownership are shrewd. They know how to appeal to the diehard fans without actually opening their wallets. They can say, see we offered 700 million on Soto, we just got outbid. Same with Fried, same with every premium free agent this year. Instead they go dumpster diving for deals again and say, see, we're making changes! Buy your season tickets now, like good little sheep.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

I see no reason why the Red Sox would win a bidding war against LA Dodgers, Yankees, or Blue Jays for Teoscar. From the sounds of it he's looking for around 70-75m/3 years deal.

Word is, the Dodgers are too far away in price, so I'm not sure they are in the bidding, anymore, but I seriously doubt we get TH or Hoffman. Santander wants 5 years: nope. Scott is too expensive for JH.

I hope I eat my words, but this looks so much more like the same ole-same ole, that I'm still a non believer.

It was nice to get Crochet. We filled one of 5 needs and applied bandaids to gushing wounds in the other 4 areas of need (pen, RHB, catcher and corner IF D.)

[notin]

6 hours ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

I think the Soxx have gotten the quantity part filled up.  They also have the economical FA signings quota filled.  Time to turn a little of the excess in OF etc into 1 or 2 quality options.  Whether that is cease, arendo, teoscar, etc.  You have to remember that the sox will have at least if not all 3 of their top prospects ready to go sometime in 2025.  Right now there is no room for them without DFA assets that would be better utilized as trade ammunition.  I'm thinking hamiliton, grissom, abreau, crawford/giolito, yoshida.  can 4 of those 5 plus a couple farm hands bring you arendo and cease , or at least an excellant SS/3B plus a top 3 starter?

No catcher?

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, Soxlover said:

I’ve said it might be equal or better, but it is not better on paper. We have lots of ifs.

Lots of ifs the past few years. Maybe they can shore it up the pen over the remainder of the winter? On paper, this rotation is much better than last seasons and the 2024 version was solid per fWAR.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Lots of ifs the past few years. Maybe they can shore it up the pen over the remainder of the winter? On paper, this rotation is much better than last seasons and the 2024 version was solid per fWAR.

Crochet makes it significantly better, despite some worries about getting near 170-180+ IP. Buehler is a huge question marks with a higher ceiling than the one he will replace, but with way less IP expectations/predictions. Gio may or may not be better than whoever he replaces, and the IP is just as speculative.

The rotation looks better and should be better.

The pen looks about equal, at best, to me- also with many question marks.

Our catching has not improved.

We still need a big RHB.

Our defense should improve, if players come back from injuries and then stay healthy, but we said the exact same thing the last 2 winters. Our corner IF did not improve. Unless Naravaez starts 50_ games, our catching D has not improved.

There is still time to fix the remaining weak areas, but my expectations are about as low as they have been in a long time.

[Bellhorn04]

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Crochet makes it significantly better, despite some worries about getting near 170-180+ IP. Buehler is a huge question marks with a higher ceiling than the one he will replace, but with way less IP expectations/predictions. Gio may or may not be better than whoever he replaces, and the IP is just as speculative.

The rotation looks better and should be better.

The pen looks about equal, at best, to me- also with many question marks.

Our catching has not improved.

We still need a big RHB.

Our defense should improve, if players come back from injuries and then stay healthy, but we said the exact same thing the last 2 winters. Our corner IF did not improve. Unless Naravaez starts 50_ games, our catching D has not improved.

There is still time to fix the remaining weak areas, but my expectations are about as low as they have been in a long time.

Really?  You sounded like one of the more optimistic ones about the 2025 team not that long ago.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Crochet makes it significantly better, despite some worries about getting near 170-180+ IP. Buehler is a huge question marks with a higher ceiling than the one he will replace, but with way less IP expectations/predictions. Gio may or may not be better than whoever he replaces, and the IP is just as speculative.

The rotation looks better and should be better.

The pen looks about equal, at best, to me- also with many question marks.

Our catching has not improved.

We still need a big RHB.

Our defense should improve, if players come back from injuries and then stay healthy, but we said the exact same thing the last 2 winters. Our corner IF did not improve. Unless Naravaez starts 50_ games, our catching D has not improved.

There is still time to fix the remaining weak areas, but my expectations are about as low as they have been in a long time.

If we consider the Buehler signing as a replacement for Pivetta leaving, remember the cost for one year was about equal -- except Walker accepted the offer that Nick turned down.

(I'm a fan who doesn't eat or drink anything with high fructose corn syrup, but I still prefer rooting for players who want to be Red Sox... no matter the reason).

Since that's basically the QO the Sox were already prepared to pay Pivetta, they still haven't spent to add to the new rotation that will open the 2025 season.

The bullpen is also still short on established talent, but looks better prepared to optimize assets if/when more injured starters return. In other words, just because you can't see the bottom doesn't mean it isn't shallow.