www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/42115076/2024-25-mlb-offseason-grades-free-agency-trade-analysis
"The Dodgers had originally hoped for a return at the end of 2023 that never materialized, and he didn't make his 2024 debut until May. While his four-seamer averaged 95.0 mph, not far off from the 95.3 average in 2021, Buehler got hit hard. His spin rate was down on all his pitches, his swing-and-miss rate way down and that four-seamer in particular got walloped -- batters hit .342 and slugged .696 against it.
That's why I remain a little skeptical about Buehler bouncing back to something resembling his pre-surgery form. One-year contracts hold no risk, but 13 good innings in October aren't enough by themselves to predict the future. Even in the start against the Mets on a cold and windy night at Citi Field, Buehler gave a lot of credit to the weather helping create some additional movement on his pitches. His start against the Yankees was a little more legitimate, although even then he induced just nine swings-and-misses in 76 pitches.
The hope, of course, is that Buehler will regain some stuff as he gets more distance away from the surgery. Since the Dodgers didn't make a qualifying offer, the Red Sox also don't lose any draft pick compensation (as will be the case with Nick Pivetta, who turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox). Buehler essentially replaces Pivetta in the rotation, a group that now includes Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester, plus Lucas Giolito and Patrick Sandoval returning from injuries. The Red Sox already ranked fifth in FanGraphs' projected WAR among starters. While Buehler's poor 2024 probably doesn't help those projected numbers, the 2021 version of Buehler -- or something close to it -- could make this the best (and deepest) rotation in the majors. -- Schoenfield"