A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Woo over Crochet is a no-brainer.

3 more years of control

Better 2023-2024

I'd give Casas + Wink for Woo.

 

2023-2024

Crochet 4.3 bWAR

Woo 3.0 bWAR

I get worrying about Crochet’s injury history, price tag, and extension.  But Woo has not been better.  Plus Woo has been helped by his ballpark and the best pitch framer in the AL.

 

Like I said, I see pros and cons to both…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

2023-2024

Crochet 4.3 bWAR

Woo 3.0 bWAR

I get worrying about Crochet’s injury history, price tag, and extension.  But Woo has not been better.  Plus Woo has been helped by his ballpark and the best pitch framer in the AL.

 

Like I said, I see pros and cons to both…

They both have an 88 ERA- over the last 2 years, and Woo has more IP.

It's a close call on value, IMO.

Age & years of control make Woo the clear pick, to me.

[Bellhorn04]

Crochet had the big bad peripherals this year, that's why he's a hot commodity.

[moonslav59]

How about this?

Sign Soto to $650M/15 and Tanner Scott to $64M/4.

Trade Yoshida (owed $56M/3) & Meidroth for Arenado (owed $59M/2)

Trade Casas & Mayer for Gilbert

Opening Day 26:

SP: Gilbert, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito

RP: Scott, Slaten, Hendriks, Whitlock, Criswell, Guerrero, Wink, Wilson or Bernardino

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Story SS

4. Devers 1B

5. Campbell 2B

6. Anthony RF

7. Abreu-Refsnyder DH

8. Arenado 3B

9. Wong C

Bench: (Ref/Abreu,) Catcher, Rafaela, DHam or Grissom

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know who the best choice is for a top of rotation pitcher.

Burnes is only 30, but he dropped off a bit, this season. 190+ IP for 3 straight years is a nice plus. Just over 900 IP for his career makes one think he's not at the end of the line. He still finished 18th in fWAR and 14th in ERA-.

ERA-

74 Burnes

77 Woo & Snell

78 B Miller & Fried

79 Flaherty

80 Wacha

84 Lorenzen

87 Manaea

88 Crochet

94 Nate

96 L Castillo

'23-'24

62 Snell

72 Fried

76 Burnes

78 Wacha

89 Castillo

90 Lorenzen, B MIller & Nate

93 Manaea

94 P Lopez

97 Flaherty

100 Pivetta

 

[mvp 78]

Woo had a great WHIP and doesn't walk anyone. Crochet is a high K guy. I'd be happy to have either as my number two behind Burnes or Fried. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Woo had a great WHIP and doesn't walk anyone. Crochet is a high K guy. I'd be happy to have either as my number two behind Burnes or Fried. 

Unless the Red Sox are going to make the big rumored change on infield D, they'd better get the high K guys: Snell, Crochet, Gilbert, Sonny Gray (all SO/9 at 9.0 or better last year). 

Snell has the inconsistent rep, but has also overtaken Sale as the all-time leader in baseball history in S0/9: 11.4 to 11.1.

Somehow, Pivetta is 13th all-time at 9.9589... but there's hope: Giolito is currently 19th at 9.5623 -- just ahead of Nolan Ryan. Seriously.

[moonslav59]

Woo will be 25 and has 5 years of control. This is the type of guy we need.

Despite allowing 27 HRs in 843 PAs against, he still has an amazing .628 OPS Against (.267 OBP against) He has a .664 OPSA on the road, so the big home park thing might be overblown. Woo had about 50 more IP than Crochet from 2023 to 2024.

Crochet's OPSA is .635, which is about the same as Woo. He's allowed 21 HRs in 911 PAs and a .288 OBP. He is 25.

Both look like nice "gets," and as MVP suggested, they be nice as our #2 behind Burnes or Fried.

Burnes/Fried

Woo/Crochet

Houck

Bello

Crawford/Giolito

[moonslav59]

Would SEA take Yoshida and Casas for Castillo & Garver?

Garver could be the back-up Catcher, until Teel arrives, and DH some, but he is really just a salary dump by SEA. I'm wondering, if we could make the deal without Garver.

[Larry Cook]

Just say no to woo 

miller is the guy from Seattle that we want!!!

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Just say no to woo 

miller is the guy from Seattle that we want!!!

 

They seem very close, to me.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports the Sox may be out to get two top SP'ers, this winter.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/latest-on-red-sox-rotation-plans.html

 

I'd love it!

Maybe sign 2 and trade for a righty bat not pitching.

[a700hitter]

Do we have any details on the Red Sox offer to Soto?

[harmony]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They both have an 88 ERA- over the last 2 years, and Woo has more IP.

It's a close call on value, IMO.

Age & years of control make Woo the clear pick, to me.

But Bryan Woo reportedly is not available.

[moonslav59]

If we have $70M to spend and not go over the tax line ($90M to second line,) what combination of FAs do you choose, base on MLBTR's AAV?

46 x 13 Soto

32 x 5 Snell

29 x 7 Burnes

27 x 6 Adames

26 x 6 Fried

23 x 5 Flaherty

22 x 2 Nate

21 x 1 Pivetta & N Martinez

20 x 3 Manaea

20 x 3 Teoscar

17 x3 Severino

15 x 1 Buehler

14 x 4 T Scott

14 x 3 O'Neill

14 x 1 Yates

12 x 1 Bieber

11 x 4 Hoffman

10 x 3 Holmes

10 x 2 Jansen

9 x 3 Estevez

7.5 x 2 Higgy

At $70M, we could go Soto, Severino and Higgy, or Soto, Scott & Jansen

Burnes, Fried & Scott  or Burnes, Fried, Holmes & Higgy (kinda over)

Fried, Pivetta, Scott & Higgy or Fried, Scott, Hoffman, Holmes & Higgy

at $90M, WOW!

Soto, Fried & Scott or Soto, Nate, Scott & Higgy

Burnes, Fried,  Teoscar & Scott

Burnes, Fried, Scott, Hoffman & Higgy

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, harmony said:

But Bryan Woo reportedly is not available.

With SEA, everyone is available for the right price.

[Randy Red Sox]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Woo seems like a very good pitcher who was marginally helped out by pitching in SEA. Crochet has some question marks, but has a CY ceiling right out of the box. Hard to say who I would make the trade for, but Crochet would have to be extended for sure. I think Crochet is a little overhyped. I'm not a Crochet hater, I just think people are going a little overboard on him. I don't think he's the game changer CHW Chris Sale was prior to the trade. 

this is all a waste of time.  Think bringing back Pivetta or someone similar.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, a700hitter said:

Do we have any details on the Red Sox offer to Soto?

just enough to make the 2 NY teams up their offer

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we have $70M to spend and not go over the tax line ($90M to second line,) what combination of FAs do you choose, base on MLBTR's AAV?

46 x 13 Soto

32 x 5 Snell

29 x 7 Burnes

27 x 6 Adames

26 x 6 Fried

23 x 5 Flaherty

 

Congrats on the snell estimate. Wow!!!

[Hitch]

Snell would have been an exciting get, but not too worried about him coming off the board. I'm not sure we would have gone (or should have) near that contract offer. 

 

Hopefully Soto decides soon so we can know which way we're aiming as an org. I think the reports of us looking to sign two starters are wide of the mark. We'll get only one, regardless, I'm pretty sure. A second through trade. 

[Hugh2]

Fried is probably going to get something close to what Snell got, and Burnes is going to cost you more.   I'm not really bothered by the Dodgers getting Snell, like always I don't freak out over every signing.  If the dust settles in the spring time and the Sox have done nothing I'll be pissed. 

[Bellhorn04]

22 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Fried is probably going to get something close to what Snell got, and Burnes is going to cost you more.   I'm not really bothered by the Dodgers getting Snell, like always I don't freak out over every signing.  If the dust settles in the spring time and the Sox have done nothing I'll be pissed. 

You probably won't have to wait until spring to know if there's reason to be pissed or not.

I agree that we can't freak about every signing.  But the fact Kikuchi and Snell are already signed for pretty big money suggests that we could be seeing a much faster pace of action than last year.  It might be a really bad year for waiting around for just the right deal. 

[moonslav59]

I do wonder how much the QO will affect our decision-making process.

While re-signing Pivetta does NOT cost us a pick, we would gain one by not signing him.

Other QOs:

Burnes & Fried probably does not matter.

Nick, Martinez, Manaea & Severino might.

Soto: Not.

Bregman and Adames: probably not.

Teoscar: maybe.

Do we go hard for the non QO's?

Flaherty, Nate (maybe both, instead of one big one?)

Scott, Hoffman, Holmes and Esteves (maybe 2 from these 4?)

O'Neill

Could we end up with Flaherty, Nate, Scott, Holmes & Higgy?

How many would be happy with that winter?

What if we added a big trade for a big RHB?

[FredLynn]

20 hours ago, notin said:

2023-2024

Crochet 4.3 bWAR

Woo 3.0 bWAR

I get worrying about Crochet’s injury history, price tag, and extension.  But Woo has not been better.  Plus Woo has been helped by his ballpark and the best pitch framer in the AL.

 

Like I said, I see pros and cons to both…

My guess is that we won't get either, nor will we get Soto. This ownership group isn't really serious about their team becoming competitive. I don't believe a word they say, only what they do, after last year's "full throttle" comment. We went full throttle-in reverse.

[FredLynn]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Fried is probably going to get something close to what Snell got, and Burnes is going to cost you more.   I'm not really bothered by the Dodgers getting Snell, like always I don't freak out over every signing.  If the dust settles in the spring time and the Sox have done nothing I'll be pissed. 

They'll almost certainly do SOMETHING. The question is, will it be enough to make the team relevant again. This year, I think not. Maybe next year.

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Congrats on the snell estimate. Wow!!!

Technically, it comes to about $36M x 5, but the deferred money mayes it about $32M x 5.

(I just used MLBTR numbers. They missed Kikuchi by just $1M a year and had the 3 year length right.)

[moonslav59]

How much would adding a top SP'er, now, either by trade or free agency, help convince Soto that the Sox are a legit contender in 2025?

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With SEA, everyone is available for the right price.

And what is the right price?  What if it’s Anthony or Campbell? 

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How much would adding a top SP'er, now, either by trade or free agency, help convince Soto that the Sox are a legit contender in 2025?

I can’t speak  for Soto, but my first thought is “less than a $550mill offer would.”

Soto could easily think the only thing the Sox need is Soto himself 

 

[notin]

16 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Just say no to woo 

miller is the guy from Seattle that we want!!!

 

I’d avoid Miller.  He looks like a product T-Mobile Park and he pitches in front of a solid defense and to the best pitch-framer in the American League.  His road ERA is nearly 2 full runs higher than his home ERA.

 

Miller + Fenway + Wong + the Sox infield = Kutter Crawford…