A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

How's he going to show signs he can rebound?

Good question.

I was thinking of a trade during the 2025 season, as Yoshida also has to show he is recovered.

Maybe a radar gun? Scouts watching him have pitch in 2025.

If pre 2025, scouts watching him during pitching session?

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good question.

I was thinking of a trade during the 2025 season, as Yoshida also has to show he is recovered.

Maybe a radar gun? Scouts watching him have pitch in 2025.

If pre 2025, scouts watching him during pitching session?

If Walker is pitching better, the Phillies won't want to trade him. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Walker is pitching better, the Phillies won't want to trade him. 

A classic Catch-22!

Maybe Andrew Bailey knows Walker and invites him for a private session because he wants to help... 

[moonslav59]

Everybody agrees Yoshida is overpaid. That does not make him a DFA guy. I do not think he is even close to that point, right now. 

If he were a FA, right now, the injury issue would lower his contract or force a one year deal, so it's hard to say what his FA value would be for 3 years. Due to the injury, his "market value" could range from $3M x 3 to maybe $10M x 3, if considered healthy. If you count this value towards the $18.3 M x 3, he's owed, we'd have to pay the other team around $9-14M a year with nothing in return expected. 

If we knew saving $4-9M a year would be used to sign a RP'er or up an offer on a better player, it might be worth it. To me, we should probably just trade Abreu and go with Yoshida at DH for 2025. If he's doing well, and he is not blocking anyone, we just keep him. If we think someone else needs PAs vs RHPs, we can trade him, while his value is a bit higher. If ends up sucking in 2025, then maybe we lost $4-9M in budget space for 2-3 years.

I like a Yoshida-Ref platoon at DH, despite it taking up 2 out of 13 roster spots. Ref can also be the 4th or 5th OF'er (LF.) If we trade Abreu and promote Anthony, that leaves LF Duran/Ref, CF Rafaela/Duran, RF Anthony (Ref in away gms only.) That leaves one roster slot for the back-up catcher and one for IF utility- DHam-Grissom, whoever is not starting or one of them on the bench, if Campbell wins the 2B job. Rafaela, also offers MI depth, which helps us be able to carry two DH types. Not ideal, I admit, but we can start the season like this, assuming Yoshida is not on the April IL.

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I like a Yoshida-Ref platoon at DH, despite it taking up 2 out of 13 roster spots.

I don't think a full-time platoon DH is feasible.  Especially with starting pitchers going so much shorter in games and openers and bullpen games.  Out of 4-5 ABs you'll often be facing 3-4 different pitchers.   More than ever you need a DH that can hit both lefties and righties.   

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think a full-time platoon DH is feasible.  Especially with starting pitchers going so much shorter in games and openers and bullpen games.  Out of 4-5 ABs you'll often be facing 3-4 different pitchers.   More than ever you need a DH that can hit both lefties and righties.   

I don't disagree, and Yoshida will likely start the season on the IL- maybe even the 60 day one. If Yoshida and Ref are ever on the roster, at the same time, as they have been for many months from 2023-2024, it might just be for a short time, as we evaluate what Yoshida can give us (or another team via trade.)

Ref can play LF or a short RF, and Duran can move to CF, so that would lessen the need for a 5th OF'er. Rafaela's ability to play CF like a GG'er, 2B pretty well and SS in a pinch does give us some flexibility. DHam or Grissom at SS is frightening, unless just for one day, as we call up Romy or Mayer to take it over due to an injury to Story. DHam or Grissom could play 3B, until Romy or Mediroth are called up.

Again, it's not ideal, but we've done it for 2 years, except Ref platooned the OF not DH. I see the difference, but whoever is not DH'ing still can act as a back-up OF'er or PH'er.

I don't like it either, but as much as I've tried, I can't find a Yoshida trade that makes sense for both teams, and I do not think he should be DFA'd, right now. We NEED REF's RH'd BAT. He is a top 25 hitter vs LHPs, and that is a major weak area on this team.

Find a Yoshida trade that makes sense, and I'll be driving that bandwagon.

[mvp 78]

David Hamilton can not play 3B. 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm almost willing to take back anything with a heartbeat for Yoshida, if the money saved is used to add some value to the roster, or the player we get back has some hope of  contributing at a position of higher need.

When healthy, his "value" might be between $3M a year up to maybe $10M a year, if he is showing he can hit .780-.800.

I'm not sure about Walker. Certainly his recent numbers show he has zero or negative value, aside from the contract, but if he shows signs he can rebound, maybe he'd be worth a risk.

It is all dominoes. Our infield defense has dumpster fires at 1st, 2nd and 3rd. (The dumpster fire at 3rd base is the wurst in baseball) 

why would a free agent pitcher want to come here, with an infield more leaky than the titanic? (Post iceberg) 

to fix the leaky infield, we need a place to relocate devers or cassas occasionally! 
that place is DH 

So in summary: 

domino 1 - trade yoshuda. 
domino 2 - tell free agent pitchers we will split DH at bats between cassas and devers. 
domino 3 - tell free agent pitchers that Campbell should win the 2nd base job. 
domino 4 - sign Carson Kelly to be back up catcher. (Above average defensive catcher) 

domino 5 - sign fried!  
 

 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

It is all dominoes. Our infield defense has dumpster fires at 1st, 2nd and 3rd. (The dumpster fire at 3rd base is the wurst in baseball) 

Last year, he was better than Christopher Morel, Noelvi Marte, Ramon Urias, Jose Miranda, Nick Senzel, Jeimer Candelario, Jake Burger and a bunch of others who would have been worse if they got the same playing time as Devers. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

It is all dominoes. Our infield defense has dumpster fires at 1st, 2nd and 3rd. (The dumpster fire at 3rd base is the wurst in baseball) 

DHam is a plus defender at 2B. Maybe Rafaela is, too.

If Mayer and or Campbell get promoted, our IF defense can improve. Move Devers to 1B/DH and Casas to DH (back-up 1B.) Problem solved with no outside additions.

It just takes a will.

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

It is all dominoes. Our infield defense has dumpster fires at 1st, 2nd and 3rd. (The dumpster fire at 3rd base is the wurst in baseball) 

why would a free agent pitcher want to come here, with an infield more leaky than the titanic? (Post iceberg) 

to fix the leaky infield, we need a place to relocate devers or cassas occasionally! 
that place is DH 

So in summary: 

domino 1 - trade yoshuda. 
domino 2 - tell free agent pitchers we will split DH at bats between cassas and devers. 
domino 3 - tell free agent pitchers that Campbell should win the 2nd base job. 
domino 4 - sign Carson Kelly to be back up catcher. (Above average defensive catcher) 

domino 5 - sign fried!  
 

 

domino 6 - tell free agent pitchers they can even get some ABs and green lights to swing away (if they want) once a month, when we rest all our DHs. 

Barnum and Bailey are still ex-pitchers, and remember the days from Little League through high school when pitchers also played shortstop when they weren't on the mound, and batted clean-up.

How many times do you think Chaim thought of that when he was the flea markets?

[moonslav59]

Here is another way to look at the situation, even if we assume JH is going to spend bi, this winter.

Are the odds better that we win the Soto bidding war and then sign 1-2 other important players, or we miss out on Soto and then sign 3 or 4 from...

Burnes and Fried

Teoscar or (please no) Bregman

Scott, Hoffman, Holmes and Estevez

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Here is another way to look at the situation, even if we assume JH is going to spend bi, this winter.

Are the odds better that we win the Soto bidding war and then sign 1-2 other important players, or we miss out on Soto and then sign 3 or 4 from...

Burnes and Fried

Teoscar or (please no) Bregman

Scott, Hoffman, Holmes and Estevez

Don't forget Roki! Another guy on MLB just said, the Red Sox are so in, he wouldn't be surprised if they sign two of Burnes, Fried and Sasaki.

 

 

[win red sox]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Story had a 790 OPS and played great defense after coming back from injury. He's going to play a full season and be above 4 bWAR. 

If he's putting up a 4 bwar then his option comes into play, but even if he doesn't opt out, the contract is moveable,. Of course, if we trade Mayer this off season then it could become an issue.

[moonslav59]

Once again, the health of Story will play a big role in how we set our infield, and how well our team does, particularly as related to defense.

Assuming he plays 140+ games at SS, we have several options for shuffling our infield around to greatly improve our defense. Whether we can or do dump Yoshida need not interfere with step 1: move Devers to 1B or have him share 1B/DH duties with Casas.

1B: Devers & Casas

SS: Story (Mayer as back-up, then Romy)

That leaves 2B and 3B. If we do not add anyone else, there are a few choices:

2B: Campbell & 3B: Mayer (Grissom/ Meidroth)

2B: Campbell & 3B: Grissom

2B: DHam & Grissom platoon & 3B: Campbell or Mayer (Grissom/Meidroth)

I like any of these choices better than running back the same IF as 2024, but with Story FT.

Unlike Larry, I do not think this would be a major selling point to land top pitchers, but it would make us a better defensive team, without hurting the offense, IMO.

I've suggested moving Devers to 1B and then offering Casas + Abreu in trade to find a cost-effective SP'er, but losing Casas would greatly hurt the offense. Even if we add Soto, I'd like to keep Casas. Soto all but guarantees an Abreu trade.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Don't forget Roki! Another guy on MLB just said, the Red Sox are so in, he wouldn't be surprised if they sign two of Burnes, Fried and Sasaki.

 

 

He's too unknown for me to add to my must get Soto alternates, but he would be a nice score.

[harmony]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Story had a 790 OPS and played great defense after coming back from injury. He's going to play a full season and be above 4 bWAR. 

Steamer optimistically projects Trevor Story with 144 games in 2025 after the injury-plagued 32-year-old played in only 163 games over the last three seasons combined:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-story/12564/stats?position=SS#dashboard

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Steamer optimistically projects Trevor Story with 144 games in 2025 after the injury-plagued 32-year-old played in only 163 games over the last three seasons combined:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-story/12564/stats?position=SS#dashboard

The projected .293 OBP seems very low (.665 OPS.)

[moonslav59]

Sign Soto for $644/14 ($46M x 14)

Sign Scott for $64M/4 ($16M x 4)

Sign Holmes for $33M/3 ($11M x 3)

Trade: Abreu (pre arb w 5 yrs,) Crawford ($3M arb 1 w 3 more arbs.) and Yoshida ($18.6M x 3) and $10M a year x 3 years.

For:Pablo Lopez ($21.8M x 3) $18.4M AAV Tax and Ryan Jeffers ($5M 2nd arb+ 3rd arb for 2026.)

Trade Cost: Sox pay $15M more for year 1. (Tax line:  about $5M more)

Total Tax Line cost: $78M (about $8M over the line)

 

[Larry Cook]

Rather than sign Holmes could we not try to trade for helsey???

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Rather than sign Holmes could we not try to trade for helsey???

Not a bad idea, but pen signings seem safer than SP'er ones, and we'd have to give up a lot to get Helsley.

The Arenado & Helsley deal looks interesting, if money is not an issue, and that deal would allow Devers to move to 1B and greatly improve our D, but Holmes plus Hoffman would be cheaper than Arenado.

Get STL to take Yoshida in the deal, and I'm all in.

Tweak the Fitts, Cespedes for Arenado +$15M and Helsley plus a prospect. Another suggested trade is just Yoshida for Arenado, but getting Helsley would be a coup.

Offer: Abreu, Fitts or Cespedes and Yoshida for Arenado & Helsely + $15M ( no STL prospect to BOS) (Note: COL is paying $5M x 2 years on Arenado's deal.)

Casas & Devers at 1B & DH

Arenado at 3B

Story at SS

Campbell or DHam at 2B

That's a solid IF.

Sign a defensive catcher and our D goes from worst to top 10.

Yoshida might hit better than Arenado, but we add a RHB to replace Yoshida.

This also allows Ref to play LF vs RHPs, and not DH.

LF: Duran-  Ref

CF: Rafaela- Duran

RF: Anthony (Campbell)

[Larry Cook]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not a bad idea, but pen signings seem safer than SP'er ones, and we'd have to give up a lot to get Helsley.

The Arenado & Helsley deal looks interesting, if money is not an issue, and that deal would allow Devers to move to 1B and greatly improve our D, but Holmes plus Hoffman would be cheaper than Arenado.

Get STL to take Yoshida in the deal, and I'm all in.

Tweak the Fitts, Cespedes for Arenado +$15M and Helsley plus a prospect. Another suggested trade is just Yoshida for Arenado, but getting Helsley would be a coup.

Offer: Abreu, Fitts or Cespedes and Yoshida for Arenado & Helsely + $15M ( no STL prospect to BOS) (Note: COL is paying $5M x 2 years on Arenado's deal.)

Casas & Devers at 1B & DH

Arenado at 3B

Story at SS

Campbell or DHam at 2B

That's a solid IF.

Sign a defensive catcher and our D goes from worst to top 10.

Yoshida might hit better than Arenado, but we add a RHB to replace Yoshida.

This also allows Ref to play LF vs RHPs, and not DH.

LF: Duran-  Ref

CF: Rafaela- Duran

RF: Anthony (Campbell)

Abreau, Cespedes or Romero and yoshida for Arenado and Helsley plus cash is a sweet deal for both teams! 

[notin]

19 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't think a full-time platoon DH is feasible.  Especially with starting pitchers going so much shorter in games and openers and bullpen games.  Out of 4-5 ABs you'll often be facing 3-4 different pitchers.   More than ever you need a DH that can hit both lefties and righties.   

How is that different than platooning other positions?  Especially since platooning a DH doesn’t mean comprising the defense against, say, left-handed pitchers.  The Sox platooned Refsnyder with Abreu last year.  Sure Ref hits lefties much better, but the drop off in defense is beyond significant.  Why is that preferable over platooning a DH where defense is not impacted at all?

[Larry Cook]

Improving our defense should be a consideration for 2025 roster building. 
we got some serious dumpster fires on the roster as it stands now. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

How is that different than platooning other positions?  Especially since platooning a DH doesn’t mean comprising the defense against, say, left-handed pitchers.  The Sox platooned Refsnyder with Abreu last year.  Sure Ref hits lefties much better, but the drop off in defense is beyond significant.  Why is that preferable over platooning a DH where defense is not impacted at all?

Well, in general terms you may have a point.  I guess I'm looking at it specifically from the point of view of the Red Sox having Yoshida.  The only way this guy can have any possible value is as a full time DH.  If he can't hit lefties and has to be platooned, he's a severe impediment to in-game roster flexibility.  He could theoretically grab a glove and play OF, but it seems like the team wants no part of that.  So if he can't hit lefties, he's simply a liability.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of players that look to be pretty close to DH only, here is a look at Enmanual Valdez:

Here is a guy that came up and via the Vaz trade with Abreu. He hit better than him through the high farm levels, and was indeed one of the best hitters in the minors over a 1-2 year stretch (2021-2022) and his .864 in 2023 with Woo.

He started in the rookie league way back in 2016, at age 17. Skipping 2020, that is 8 years in pro ball. He turns 26 in about a week. He has 371 PAs in the bigs- spread out over two seasons. He's looked pretty good on offense, at times, but has also looked awful, at other times.

.866 first 63 PAs of '23

.690 last 86 PAs of '23

.447 first 90 PAs of '24

.784 last 124 PAs of '24.

If you take away that one really bad 86 PA stretch, his OPS would be pretty good.

The biggest issue is his defense. It's atrocious, no matter where he plays. It has not improved, despite 8 years of pro ball. His offense has not been good enough to be a FT DH in MLB, but with a little improvement, maybe he could get there.  On a team like the Sox, where does that leave his hopes? One could argue that DH suits Devers, Casas, Yoshida and Refsnyder best. He's not a better hitter than any of them, except Ref vs RHPs. He is worse than Abreu vs LHPs. (.327 OPS in 52 PAs v LHPs.)

In some ways, he seem,  like he is wasting a slot on the 40, and maybe he will be traded, this winter, but I think we have 4-5 players on the 40 with less hope than he has. Other teams may worry about his away splits: .812 at Fenway and .542 away.

Gotta think this is a make or break year for EV.... maybe even a make or break ST'ing.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Valdez seems thoroughly incapable of hitting lefties.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Valdez seems thoroughly incapable of hitting lefties.

As does Abreu, for now, anyway. If there were more LHPs than RHPs, they both would have way less value.

2024 Sox vs LHPs:

1.180 O'Neil (GONE)

.941 Refsnyder

.879 Romy (might not make 26)

.877 Wong (D is so bad, he may not play FT)

.758 Casas (.817 in '23)

.686 Devers (.739 career)

.665 Duran (.749 in '23)

.619 Grissom (.727 career)

.603 Rafaela (has career reverse splits: .684 v R/.610 v L)

.565 Yoshida (.746 in '23)

.532 Abreu & DHam

.472 Story (just 20 PAs)

.296 Valdez

 

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As does Abreu, for now, anyway. If there were more LHPs than RHPs, they both would have way less value.

2024 Sox vs LHPs:

1.180 O'Neil (GONE)

.941 Refsnyder

.879 Romy (might not make 26)

.877 Wong (D is so bad, he may not play FT)

.758 Casas (.817 in '23)

.686 Devers (.739 career)

.665 Duran (.749 in '23)

.619 Grissom (.727 career)

.603 Rafaela (has career reverse splits: .684 v R/.610 v L)

.565 Yoshida (.746 in '23)

.532 Abreu & DHam

.472 Story (just 20 PAs)

.296 Valdez

 

I struggle to envision a world where the team’s hitter with the second highest escape velocity gets cut despite his minimum wage…

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

I struggle to envision a world where the team’s hitter with the second highest escape velocity gets cut despite his minimum wage…

Valdez?

Wow.