Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Nick]

Yankees at $260M and still looking to add. Sox are at $176M, trying to eek out $3M-$5M wins on 6 figure contracts for FA. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I don’t agree the injury history is similar simply because Montgomery has pitche almost 700 innings since his last surgery.  (Arguments that he’s due are acknowledged.)

But with Giolito coming off TJ, which might be his second (I could be wrong), this rotation is fragile enough.

Montgomery might not be the best solution.  I just think he’s a better one than Buehler…

Gio had it right after being drafted and then opted for the brace procedure this go around. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

Yankees at $260M and still looking to add. Sox are at $176M, trying to eek out $3-$5 wins on 6 figure contracts for FA. 

Yeah, go watch the ending of Moneyball again for Henry's part. It's all you need to know. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I saw that the Mets were looking at bringing back Manaea and maybe someone else of that ilk. I don't know if they'll go large an long on pitchers since they had to dump some recent big pitcher contracts. We'll see. 

I don't think they outbid everyone for Burnes, even if Cohen wants him. I think, at some point he will pivot to Manaea or someone else.

[Duran Is The Man]

Bellinger to the Yankees.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Bellinger to the Yankees.

Kinda expected.

Maybe they give up on Bregman.

Not sure about Burnes.

[Larry Cook]

13 hours ago, notin said:

On BTV, Fedde has a surplus value of $16.5mill, so he comes at a fairly steep price.  Montgomery, on the other hand, has a surplus value of (-$10.4mill).  Readily available.  Sure you might not be able to pawn off Yoshida or Story for him, but nearly everyone else in the entire organization is in play here…

Yoshida and a bag of cash for Montgomery. 
1.) Montgomery gets a year to prove it. 
2.) we get a year to sharpen up dobbins!!!!!

3.) Arizona gets nothing, but the owner is free of Montgomery 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Yoshida and a bag of cash for Montgomery. 
1.) Montgomery gets a year to prove it. 
2.) we get a year to sharpen up dobbins!!!!!

3.) Arizona gets nothing, but the owner is free of Montgomery 

I've kinda given up on the Yoshidump idea. I'm not very high on Monty, anymore, but we need pitching and he's a shot in the dark. We can fill the DH role, easily, but not rotation slots.

I'm not sure AZ wants Yoshida, unless we pay 2 bags of cash.

[drewski6]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've kinda given up on the Yoshidump idea. I'm not very high on Monty, anymore, but we need pitching and he's a shot in the dark. We can fill the DH role, easily, but not rotation slots.

I'm not sure AZ wants Yoshida, unless we pay 2 bags of cash.

I think a Yoshi dump will be more feasible either mid-season or after this year.  

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think a Yoshi dump will be more feasible either mid-season or after this year.  

Yeah, if he proves he's healthy we might only have to eat 90% of his salary.

Sorry man, I'm in my morning rant mode here.  

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I think a Yoshi dump will be more feasible either mid-season or after this year.  

This makes the most sense, and to be honest, I think Sox management will put off promoting 2-3 of our top 3 prospects, until the extra year of control is gained, so there is not really a 26 man roster crunch. Even if we add Teoscar or Santander without an OF trade, wee can still manage the roster, until a call-up.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, if he proves he's healthy we might only have to eat 90% of his salary.

Sorry man, I'm in my morning rant mode here.  

I think 85-90% is on point, assuming he shows he can hit .775 for a few weeks.

[notin]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think 85-90% is on point, assuming he shows he can hit .775 for a few weeks.

His OPS was .879 from April 13th to August 19th, although he only played 63 games in that stretch. 

At some point around then, he likely tore his labrum... 

[notin]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Yoshida and a bag of cash for Montgomery. 
1.) Montgomery gets a year to prove it. 
2.) we get a year to sharpen up dobbins!!!!!

3.) Arizona gets nothing, but the owner is free of Montgomery 

Yeah not sure who AZ has queued up for the DH slot, but I think they might prefer the one year contract over the 3 year one here.

 

They'll deal Montgomery, but not for Yoshida... 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

His OPS was .879 from April 13th to August 19th, although he only played 63 games in that stretch. 

At some point around then, he likely tore his labrum... 

I think he can hit over .800 for a whole season- maybe .880, but I think he just needs to hit .775 to .800 to restore some value beyond where he is now.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Yeah not sure who AZ has queued up for the DH slot, but I think they might prefer the one year contract over the 3 year one here.

 

They'll deal Montgomery, but not for Yoshida... 

I think the "bags of cash" pretty much meant we pay off more money to make the final money less for AZ.

Monty is owed $22.5 for '15. Yoshida is owed $18.6 x 3 years.

We could pay AZ about $11-12M a year and they break even on the money, but they'd want a DH to make this trade, and maybe a prospect, too.

[moonslav59]

Why are pitchers getting hurt more often?

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-releases-report-on-pitcher-injuries-2024

[a700hitter]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I've kinda given up on the Yoshidump idea. I'm not very high on Monty, anymore, but we need pitching and he's a shot in the dark. We can fill the DH role, easily, but not rotation slots.

I'm not sure AZ wants Yoshida, unless we pay 2 bags of cash.

Imo, Yoshida has a limited market even if the Red Sox pay his entire salary.

[moonslav59]

On 12/17/2024 at 1:18 PM, mvp 78 said:

I saw that the Mets were looking at bringing back Manaea and maybe someone else of that ilk. I don't know if they'll go large an long on pitchers since they had to dump some recent big pitcher contracts. We'll see. 

So, then Cohen does not spend as much as it takes to win a ring.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, a700hitter said:

Imo, Yoshida has a limited market even if the Red Sox pay his entire salary.

Agreed, maybe we could get someone to pay $1-3M more than minimum wage. but the hope is, if he comes back and hits well, we could get more. I'm not expecting any player in return- just salary relief that I probably mistakenly hope JH would use elsewhere.

 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, a700hitter said:

Imo, Yoshida has a limited market even if the Red Sox pay his entire salary.

I think this is a fact. He can’t field, he doesn’t have a ton of power and he hasn’t been able to stay healthy.  
 

Some teams wouldn’t want to make space for him on their roster even if we pay down the whole salary

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think this is a fact. He can’t field, he doesn’t have a ton of power and he hasn’t been able to stay healthy.  
 

Some teams wouldn’t want to make space for him on their roster even if we pay down the whole salary

Very true, but it just takes one team. The guy seems to be a good hitter. He has been hurt a couple times in 2 years, but that may not be his MO>

[Hugh2]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Very true, but it just takes one team. The guy seems to be a good hitter. He has been hurt a couple times in 2 years, but that may not be his MO>

Yes it does, but that's still going to limit how many teams could actually find use for them on their roster. 

Pure conjecture and I'm just going to guess to illustrate my point.  For the league minimum, perhaps there are 9 teams out there that would put Yoshida on their roster as a DH/pinch hitter type. 

Without knowing who those teams would be lets just pick two to further illustrate my point (regardless of actually need) lets say one was the Dodgers and one was the Pirates. The Dodgers could eat the money, the Pirates would want the contract paid down. 

My point is, out of those 9 teams, most are NOT going to want to take on the money.  So you're left with a very small pool of teams to trade with.  So the expectation should be nothing of value for Yoshida, you're probably packaging up a prospect to get him off your books and still paying down a significant part if not all of his salary of the salary.  

The value in trading Yoshida is to open up a roster spot; that's it.  How much value is adding a bench piece going to make towards the 2025 roster better?

Yoshida on or off the roster doesn't really stop you from signing a starter to play the outfield, whether that was Juan Soto or if it's Teoscar Hernandez.   But lets say, with the Hernandez addition, you want a defensive utility player taking up Yoshidas spot on the roster, so you trade his contract. 

So what does that look like? They sign Bregman or Hernandez for $25-$30 million and pay Yoshida $15 million to play elsewhere? So you're now paying $40-$45 million dollars just to have that roster flexibility?

Honestly, I think the team would be better by just giving TOP prospect Roman Anthony the job and using that money to sign a front line starter. 

I'd be very intrigued to see what the Sox do with a Yoshida trade if it happens, but I just don't think it's very likely.  And the fact that he's injured only makes it harder, but if he can't start the season he could start the season off the 40 man....so they'd have that roster spot anyways.  If a guy or two goes down a month or two into the season, you might want to see how he looks at DH. 

[Hugh2]

^^^^^ and use the prospect to trade for another catcher. 

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes it does, but that's still going to limit how many teams could actually find use for them on their roster. 

Pure conjecture and I'm just going to guess to illustrate my point.  For the league minimum, perhaps there are 9 teams out there that would put Yoshida on their roster as a DH/pinch hitter type. 

Without knowing who those teams would be lets just pick two to further illustrate my point (regardless of actually need) lets say one was the Dodgers and one was the Pirates. The Dodgers could eat the money, the Pirates would want the contract paid down. 

My point is, out of those 9 teams, most are NOT going to want to take on the money.  So you're left with a very small pool of teams to trade with.  So the expectation should be nothing of value for Yoshida, you're probably packaging up a prospect to get him off your books and still paying down a significant part if not all of his salary of the salary.  

The value in trading Yoshida is to open up a roster spot; that's it.  How much value is adding a bench piece going to make towards the 2025 roster better?

Yoshida on or off the roster doesn't really stop you from signing a starter to play the outfield, whether that was Juan Soto or if it's Teoscar Hernandez.   But lets say, with the Hernandez addition, you want a defensive utility player taking up Yoshidas spot on the roster, so you trade his contract. 

So what does that look like? They sign Bregman or Hernandez for $25-$30 million and pay Yoshida $15 million to play elsewhere? So you're now paying $40-$45 million dollars just to have that roster flexibility?

Honestly, I think the team would be better by just giving TOP prospect Roman Anthony the job and using that money to sign a front line starter. 

I'd be very intrigued to see what the Sox do with a Yoshida trade if it happens, but I just don't think it's very likely.  And the fact that he's injured only makes it harder, but if he can't start the season he could start the season off the 40 man....so they'd have that roster spot anyways.  If a guy or two goes down a month or two into the season, you might want to see how he looks at DH. 

   Why would you pay all of his salary AND include a prospect just to trade him?  At that point, it’s just easier to release him.

 

Also if the goal is roster flexibility, you can demote Yoshida to Worcester.  He still has options left. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, then Cohen does not spend as much as it takes to win a ring.

He's been burned on pitching contracts in the past and made the playoffs AFTER trading those guys away. 

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

   Why would you pay all of his salary AND include a prospect just to trade him?  At that point, it’s just easier to release him.

 

Also if the goal is roster flexibility, you can demote Yoshida to Worcester.  He still has options left. 

Yes, you're right. If you're paying all of his salary you would just release him before adding a prospect. 

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, then Cohen does not spend as much as it takes to win a ring.

He's just trying to keep things fair for the rest of us, moon.

(Seems like you and me have potential for a long running debate/joke about moneybags Cohen. 🙂)

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He's just trying to keep things fair for the rest of us, moon.

(Seems like you and me have potential for a long running debate/joke about moneybags Cohen. 🙂)

If Cohen would have gone $250M more to get Soto, then why not spend that on Burnes?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Cohen would have gone $250M more to get Soto, then why not spend that on Burnes?

I've already stated why a few times.