Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Nick said:

I thought the goal was to win the Division. Signing Bregman and Burnes would go long ways in making the Sox faithful back in the fold. Do it John.

We'll be right at they cusp of the luxury tax payroll with these two signings. 

Just week ago JH was going to throw $700M at Soto. All of the sudden, we're done after dishing out $10M to Chapman? Unfreaking real.

I agree, but what are the odds of us outbidding all the also-rans for the two biggest prizes remaining.

I doubt the odds are even 50-50 we sign one.

We may not even get Flaherty & Hoffman or Teoscar/Santander and Flaherty/Hoffman (2 of the 4 tier 2 guys)

What are the odds we even get Manaea/Pivetta/Buehler and Estevez? (Tier 3)

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

he had his first TJS in 2015 right after he was drafted, and then again in 2022.  So......he should be good to go for 5 years. 

I didn't remember the first TJS. I think one year may be ok with him. I would not sign him for multiple. No way.

[mvp 78]

 

25 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Let's just ignore 2016, 2017, 2022, 2023, 2024, which is 4 of his 8 seasons in pro ball.

But hey, it's "just one injury."

Why are we trying to minimize his history of injuries. I thought, at least this part, was a given: he's been injury prone. The part that is up for debate is will he continue to be, and is he more of a risk than others available.

He had TJS twice. Monty had TJS. He may get it a second time as well. Don't act like Monty's never missed time. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

He had TJS twice. Monty had TJS. He may get it a second time as well. Don't act like Monty's never missed time. 

I'm not acting like Monty has not missed time. I just said avoid him, too.

Saying it was just "one injury" is a classic.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Oh, I'm not sold that Buehler is back either.

I think the bottom line for me as a fan is that a Buehler signing would inject a little excitement. 

I like the Crochet trade, but in general Red Sox offseasons continue to be dreadfully dull and disappointing affairs.   

To me, Buehler injects excitement like Wade Miller did.  Yeah we got a name guy that we might never see do anything when we  had a chance to get a lesser pitcher who showed up for work…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but what are the odds of us outbidding all the also-rans for the two biggest prizes remaining.

I doubt the odds are even 50-50 we sign one.

We may not even get Flaherty & Hoffman or Teoscar/Santander and Flaherty/Hoffman (2 of the 4 tier 2 guys)

What are the odds we even get Manaea/Pivetta/Buehler and Estevez? (Tier 3)

Burnes is in too many radars to be a plausible option (at least to me).  Bregman, not so much.  Fortunately the Mets are set at 3b with Baty and Vientos.  The Yankees could use a 3b, but also a 1b.  With both the Yankees and Mets needing a first sacker, I hope they both focus more on Pete Alonso than Bregman.  Let them start another bidding war there…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Also, last offseason we heard the Sox don't think highly of his stuff, which was one of the few reasons we've heard for not signing a guy that actually make sense...

That’s another factor.

Of course discussions of what pitcher I prefer over what pitchers Breslow prefers will most definitely go in two different directions.

And obviously mine won’t be the right one…

[Bellhorn04]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Let's just ignore 2016, 2017, 2022, 2023, 2024, which is 4 of his 8 seasons in pro ball.

But hey, it's "just one injury."

Why are we trying to minimize his history of injuries. I thought, at least this part, was a given: he's been injury prone. The part that is up for debate is will he continue to be, and is he more of a risk than others available.

No one is trying to minimize it.  I think we can all read Baseball-Reference just fine.

Like countless other pitchers of this era he's had elbow problems, we get it.

I'm only interested if he really and truly is available for $15 mill or so.

He's relatively young and has shown elite upside.  He looked healthy when last seen throwing a baseball.

There are arguments for and against, obviously.

In any case it probably won't happen anyway so we're just sparring with other for fun. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

IF the Sox sign Buehler and all goes mostly well it's a huge plus.  Maybe he even agrees to a club option for 2026?   

You don't get many chances to acquire a starter of his caliber for relatively light financial risk.

The problem is these Red Sox seem to be continuing to be tight with the budget, so even $15 million might be more than they're willing to gamble. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No one is trying to minimize it.  I think we can all read Baseball-Reference just fine.

I see these comments as "minimizing" his injury history and risk:

Is Buehler really oft injured or is it just one injury (TJS)? -MVP

Such wonky analysis. 2018-2021 was plenty of innings.... Bell

Maybe, I'm reading into things, too much.

[Bellhorn04]

For some perspective, they risked 38.5 million on Lucas Giolito coming off 2 months of pitching batting practice.

15 million is about 40% of that. 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I see these comments as "minimizing" his injury history and risk:

Is Buehler really oft injured or is it just one injury (TJS)? -MVP

Such wonky analysis. 2018-2021 was plenty of innings.... Bell

Maybe, I'm reading into things, too much.

I think what you try to do is simplify things too much and in the process you don't seem to give much credit to the other person's intelligence.  As I said, we can all read B-R.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Burnes is in too many radars to be a plausible option (at least to me).  Bregman, not so much.  Fortunately the Mets are set at 3b with Baty and Vientos.  The Yankees could use a 3b, but also a 1b.  With both the Yankees and Mets needing a first sacker, I hope they both focus more on Pete Alonso than Bregman.  Let them start another bidding war there…

The longer Burnes is out there, the fewer the radars there are. Yanks are out. Dodgers are probably out. Mets are looking at midtier guys. The most likely spots as of right now are Giants, Sox and Jays. I think he's a plausible option. It just takes FO deciding to make the move. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think what you try to do is simplify things too much and in the process you don't seem to give much credit to the other person's intelligence.  As I said, we can all read B-R.

I respect your opinions and see why people would want Buehler, I just felt like people were trying to minimize his injury history and risk to make their position stronger.

Like I said, maybe I read into things, too much.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I see these comments as "minimizing" his injury history and risk:

Is Buehler really oft injured or is it just one injury (TJS)? -MVP

Such wonky analysis. 2018-2021 was plenty of innings.... Bell

Maybe, I'm reading into things, too much.

I think Buehler and Montgomery have a similar injury history: Tommy John Surgery. To me, they aren't distinct enough to really say "oh that guy is a more sure bet." I think they are about as reliable going forward (my personal opinion) and that Buehler has a high ceiling over the short term and would be cheaper. Either guy could tweak something and be done in ST. I wouldn't be surprised. There was a lot of talk last offseason about Monty only having a certain amount of innings on his arm post surgery before the second one would come. You disagree. That's fine. I'm not minimizing Buehler's risk, but stating that Monty has a higher risk than you believe. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think what you try to do is simplify things too much and in the process you don't seem to give much credit to the other person's intelligence.  As I said, we can all read B-R.

I'm only drooling on myself half the time when I'm posting. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

For some perspective, they risked 38.5 million on Lucas Giolito coming off 2 months of pitching batting practice.

15 million is about 40% of that. 

The same Giolito yet to throw a pitch for the Red Sox, who are paying him the third-highest salary on the roster (after Raffy and the Ever-Mending Story)? The same Gio they gave an opt out to if he was good?

I know Henry is 75, but that's still another half decade before he gets to run for President. And as a loyal fan, I still have time to exercise my opt-out if I find something better to do with my money than give it to him.

[notin]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The longer Burnes is out there, the fewer the radars there are. Yanks are out. Dodgers are probably out. Mets are looking at midtier guys. The most likely spots as of right now are Giants, Sox and Jays. I think he's a plausible option. It just takes FO deciding to make the move. 

Are the Yankees out on Burnes?  They could pay him plus Fried less than their offer to Soto.

The Dodgers were probably never in.  Their contract with Snell was one of the bigger ones if not the biggest they’ve ever given to a SP age 30 or over.

Blue Jays are out, whether they know it or not.  No one wants to go there.  Probably because they hate seeing their home runs in meters and their fastball velocities in km/hr.

The Giants are the name I keep hearing…

[notin]

45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

For some perspective, they risked 38.5 million on Lucas Giolito coming off 2 months of pitching batting practice.

15 million is about 40% of that. 

First of all, Buehler’s price is unknown, so $15 million, much like one year, is an assumption.  
 

Second “but it’s cheaper to put him on the IL than Giolito” isn’t the best argument.

Giolito isn’t working out as it is; why is another option down the same path the preferred plan? 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Are the Yankees out on Burnes?  They could pay him plus Fried less than their offer to Soto.

The Dodgers were probably never in.  Their contract with Snell was one of the bigger ones if not the biggest they’ve ever given to a SP age 30 or over.

Blue Jays are out, whether they know it or not.  No one wants to go there.  Probably because they hate seeing their home runs in meters and their fastball velocities in km/hr.

The Giants are the name I keep hearing…

Yankees rotation (not in order): 

Cole

Fried

Stroman

Gil

Rodon

They already have a lot of money tied up in that rotation. I don't see them going for Burnes. They'll wish they had once Fried gets his next TJS.

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

First of all, Buehler’s price is unknown, so $15 million, much like one year, is an assumption.  
 

Second “but it’s cheaper to put him on the IL than Giolito” isn’t the best argument.

Giolito isn’t working out as it is; why is another option down the same path the preferred plan? 

Your reading comprehension is brutal.  $15 mill is what's been reported as an estimate and I clearly said that's all I was interested in paying.  That's the opposite of assuming anything.  It's exhausting to have to explain things like this.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Buehler and Montgomery have a similar injury history: Tommy John Surgery. To me, they aren't distinct enough to really say "oh that guy is a more sure bet." I think they are about as reliable going forward (my personal opinion) and that Buehler has a high ceiling over the short term and would be cheaper. Either guy could tweak something and be done in ST. I wouldn't be surprised. There was a lot of talk last offseason about Monty only having a certain amount of innings on his arm post surgery before the second one would come. You disagree. That's fine. I'm not minimizing Buehler's risk, but stating that Monty has a higher risk than you believe. 

I did want Monty, last winter, so I can see why you wonder about my differing view on Buehler, I have since changed my view on Monty. I see him as being close to Buehler on the injury risk spectrum.

He did have a few more seasons of 150+ IP, but he's a year older. Both did not look good, last year. No 10 IP sample size ever convinces me of anything.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yankees rotation (not in order): 

Cole

Fried

Stroman

Gil

Rodon

They already have a lot of money tied up in that rotation. I don't see them going for Burnes. They'll wish they had once Fried gets his next TJS.

I doubt the NYY are in on Burnes. This will be a test on Cohen, though. The Mets need a SP'er and they have said they want one. I'm curious if Cohen takes the "I won't be outbid, no matter what" role on this one.

I think someone can outbid him, here.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Your reading comprehension is brutal.  $15 mill is what's been reported as an estimate and I clearly said that's all I was interested in paying.  That's the opposite of assuming anything.  It's exhausting to have to explain things like this.

I am aware of the estimate.  But as we’ve seen this offseason, they are often wildly inaccurate, especially on players garnering significant interest.  With Buehler,  1 yr at $15mill is not crazy, which is why it probably won’t happen.  Much like Luis Castillo, he’s getting way more attention than any pitcher coming off a 5.54 ERA season ever has.  I just don’t see the bidding stopping there, and I don’t see it stopping at one year.   Not everyone can afford Burnes at $240mill over 8 yrs (or whatever).  But most teams won’t be scared off by $25mill over 2 yrs for Buehler…

[notin]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yankees rotation (not in order): 

Cole

Fried

Stroman

Gil

Rodon

They already have a lot of money tied up in that rotation. I don't see them going for Burnes. They'll wish they had once Fried gets his next TJS.

Or if Rodon turns in another season under 70 IP…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt the NYY are in on Burnes. This will be a test on Cohen, though. The Mets need a SP'er and they have said they want one. I'm curious if Cohen takes the "I won't be outbid, no matter what" role on this one.

I think someone can outbid him, here.

I do think Alonso and Bregman make more sense for NY than Burnes.  But I think a left-handed hitting corner INF would be an even better fit..

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Buehler and Montgomery have a similar injury history: Tommy John Surgery. To me, they aren't distinct enough to really say "oh that guy is a more sure bet." I think they are about as reliable going forward (my personal opinion) and that Buehler has a high ceiling over the short term and would be cheaper. Either guy could tweak something and be done in ST. I wouldn't be surprised. There was a lot of talk last offseason about Monty only having a certain amount of innings on his arm post surgery before the second one would come. You disagree. That's fine. I'm not minimizing Buehler's risk, but stating that Monty has a higher risk than you believe. 

I don’t agree the injury history is similar simply because Montgomery has pitche almost 700 innings since his last surgery.  (Arguments that he’s due are acknowledged.)

But with Giolito coming off TJ, which might be his second (I could be wrong), this rotation is fragile enough.

Montgomery might not be the best solution.  I just think he’s a better one than Buehler…

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

I do think Alonso and Bregman make more sense for NY than Burnes.  But I think a left-handed hitting corner INF would be an even better fit..

To bad there is no match for Casas.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

I don’t agree the injury history is similar simply because Montgomery has pitche almost 700 innings since his last surgery.  (Arguments that he’s due are acknowledged.)

But with Giolito coming off TJ, which might be his second (I could be wrong), this rotation is fragile enough.

Montgomery might not be the best solution.  I just think he’s a better one than Buehler…

We can argue all day about who is more fragile or likely to be injured, going forward. 

IMO, we should try to avoid anyone with a higher than average injury risk situation. That may not be easy to determine, but I think we all feel Monty and Buehler are high risks than maybe half the good pitchers in MLB.

WE just stretched out Houck and Crawford. Neither are an injury risk, but they are maybe the only starters we have that are not near average or worse.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt the NYY are in on Burnes. This will be a test on Cohen, though. The Mets need a SP'er and they have said they want one. I'm curious if Cohen takes the "I won't be outbid, no matter what" role on this one.

I think someone can outbid him, here.

I saw that the Mets were looking at bringing back Manaea and maybe someone else of that ilk. I don't know if they'll go large an long on pitchers since they had to dump some recent big pitcher contracts. We'll see.