Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[notin]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Tomoyuki Sugano just signed with the O's for $13M/1. Hell, he might have been a better risk than Buehler.

Sugano carries a risk, but it’s a different type risk…

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

Sugano Carrie’s a risk, but it’s a different type risk…

Massively different profiles and risks.  But moon likes to keep things simple.  And right now just about everything on planet Earth looks less risky to him than Buehler...

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Massively different profiles and risks.  But moon likes to keep things simple.  And right now just about everything on planet Earth looks less risky to him than Buehler...

I'm not sold that Buehler is back. I'm not sold that Montgomery would actually be better than Buehler though. Monty was garbo last season. For one season, give me Buehler. If it's not working out, you can put him in the pen. Montgomery in the pen offers you zilch. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sold that Buehler is back. I'm not sold that Montgomery would actually be better than Buehler though. Monty was garbo last season. For one season, give me Buehler. If it's not working out, you can put him in the pen. Montgomery in the pen offers you zilch. 

Oh, I'm not sold that Buehler is back either.

I think the bottom line for me as a fan is that a Buehler signing would inject a little excitement. 

I like the Crochet trade, but in general Red Sox offseasons continue to be dreadfully dull and disappointing affairs.   

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Oh, I'm not sold that Buehler is back either.

I think the bottom line for me as a fan is that a Buehler signing would inject a little excitement. 

I like the Crochet trade, but in general Red Sox offseasons continue to be dreadfully dull and disappointing affairs.   

I really don't think they are going to pull the trigger on enough moves to really get the fanbase back this offseason. It's going to take a few offseasons of them being committed and the Sox making the playoffs more often than not. 

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Your second "less risky than Buehler" post in the last 12 hours LOL

Montgomery's 2025 salary is 22.5 mill.  If Buehler gets the projected 15 mill, it seems like Monty would put 50% more money at risk.  

When I talk "risk," it's mainly about the odds of playing vs missing time.

Of course, money is part of the risk, and that is one reason Buehler will only get 1-2 years and $13-20M per year vs other less upside pitchers who are more dependable, on paper.

I understand that signing Pivetta to $70M/3 or $84M/4 is a big risk, if he turns sour, but I'd still rather have him at that cost than Buehler at $17M/1 or $32M/2, certainly more than the suggested Gio contract offer to WB.

It's not a slam dunk choice, to me, but right now, I'm in the "I'm sick of signing oft-injured- once-great" pitchers. Maybe, over time, I'll ease up on my dislike for these signing.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When I talk "risk," it's mainly about the odds of playing vs missing time.

Of course, money is part of the risk, and that is one reason Buehler will only get 1-2 years and $13-20M per year vs other less upside pitchers who are more dependable, on paper.

I understand that signing Pivetta to $70M/3 or $84M/4 is a big risk, if he turns sour, but I'd still rather have him at that cost than Buehler at $17M/1 or $32M/2, certainly more than the suggested Gio contract offer to WB.

It's not a slam dunk choice, to me, but right now, I'm in the "I'm sick of signing oft-injured- once-great" pitchers. Maybe, over time, I'll ease up on my dislike for these signing.

Is Buehler really oft injured or is it just one injury (TJS)? 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I really don't think they are going to pull the trigger on enough moves to really get the fanbase back this offseason. It's going to take a few offseasons of them being committed and the Sox making the playoffs more often than not. 

I think it's a sign of how skeptical Sox fans have become that hardly anyone thinks the Sox are serious about signing Burnes, who is clearly the premier starting pitcher available.

We're all thinking Pivetta or Buehler or Manaea or...nothing.  Even Flaherty feels like a longshot.

And they haven't really done much about the pen except for one signing that generated more yuck than anything.

Vibes are still really weird.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I really don't think they are going to pull the trigger on enough moves to really get the fanbase back this offseason. It's going to take a few offseasons of them being committed and the Sox making the playoffs more often than not. 

We could have done it, but sadly, I agree. 

I think JH is looking at Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and maybe a couple other prospects that project to be significant ML'er by 2026 or 2027, and the fact that we have so few key players that will be reaching free agency by 2027 or 2028, that he may set "the window" at 2026-2029 or even 2027-2029/2030.

There is also the chance he does not ever splurge, again, and any "window" would have to happen from the farm and a couple mid-range additions.

[mvp 78]

Montgomery had his first TJS in 2018. Maybe his arm is at the end of its life (considering how poorly he pitched last season) and needs a second TJS?

[Hugh2]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Is Buehler really oft injured or is it just one injury (TJS)? 

he had his first TJS in 2015 right after he was drafted, and then again in 2022.  So......he should be good to go for 5 years. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it's a sign of how skeptical Sox fans have become that hardly anyone thinks the Sox are serious about signing Burnes, who is clearly the premier starting pitcher available.

We're all thinking Pivetta or Buehler or Manaea or...nothing.  Even Flaherty feels like a longshot.

And they haven't really done much about the pen except for one signing that generated more yuck than anything.

Vibes are still really weird.

They got John Henry's disease.....it's very debilitating. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Montgomery had his first TJS in 2018. Maybe his arm is at the end of its life (considering how poorly he pitched last season) and needs a second TJS?

Also, last offseason we heard the Sox don't think highly of his stuff, which was one of the few reasons we've heard for not signing a guy that actually make sense...

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

They got John Henry's disease.....it's very debilitating. 

Symptoms are:

Fear of old people, particularly pitchers

Fear of doctors and hospitals

allergic to giving out money. Giving out too much money at once can result in a massive breakout of Hives. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

They got John Henry's disease.....it's very debilitating. 

JH is 75 freakin' years old.  His looks never change so some may not be aware how advanced he is.

Time to lighten up and have a little fun again before it's too late, no, John?

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Also, last offseason we heard the Sox don't think highly of his stuff, which was one of the few reasons we've heard for not signing a guy that actually make sense...

It's ironic, one of Montgomerys biggest calling cards was how consistent he was, but in hindsight it doesn't seem like he really has the "stuff" to be that good into his 30's.  I think the Sox dodged a bullet with that one.  Good for Breslow for avoiding that one. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Is Buehler really oft injured or is it just one injury (TJS)? 

5 IP in 2016 (first year in minors at age 21 out of Vandy)

89 in 2017 (minors)

16 in 2018 (minors) + 137 MLB= 153

182 in 2019 Hurray!

37 in 2020 COVID, but 12 GS was there for the healthy (missed 25%)

208 in 2021 Hurray!

65 in 2022 

2 in 2023

34 in 2024

I'm not going to go back and research his injury history, but these IP total are god-awful

 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Montgomery had his first TJS in 2018. Maybe his arm is at the end of its life (considering how poorly he pitched last season) and needs a second TJS?

Okay, maybe we need to avoid Monty, too.

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Massively different profiles and risks.  But moon likes to keep things simple.  And right now just about everything on planet Earth looks less risky to him than Buehler...

He is a risk- mostly age and the whole change of culture/league dynamic.

I was very high on Imanaga, last winter, but not all work out like he did.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

5 IP in 2016 (first year in minors at age 21 out of Vandy)

89 in 2017 (minors)

16 in 2018 (minors) + 137 MLB= 153

182 in 2019 Hurray!

37 in 2020 COVID, but 12 GS was there for the healthy (missed 25%)

208 in 2021 Hurray!

65 in 2022 

2 in 2023

34 in 2024

I'm not going to go back and research his injury history, but these IP total are god-awful

 

after seeing all this, i'm surprised Greedy John hasn't signed him. he fits the FA pitcher profile perfectly of who they want.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Duran Is The Man said:

after seeing all this, i'm surprised Greedy John hasn't signed him. he fits the FA pitcher profile perfectly of who they want.

This gets to the heart of my distaste for these types of signings. We've hardly made any SP'er signings that are low risk, in terms of injury risk. You have to go back to Price & Porcello up to the Gio signing to find significant rotation additions that had little injury history.

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

5 IP in 2016 (first year in minors at age 21 out of Vandy)

89 in 2017 (minors)

16 in 2018 (minors) + 137 MLB= 153

182 in 2019 Hurray!

37 in 2020 COVID, but 12 GS was there for the healthy (missed 25%)

208 in 2021 Hurray!

65 in 2022 

2 in 2023

34 in 2024

I'm not going to go back and research his injury history, but these IP total are god-awful

 

Such wonky analysis.

2018-2021 was plenty of innings.

The IP totals the last 3 years are god-awful.  But that tends to be the case with TJ surgeries.

[notin]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not sold that Buehler is back. I'm not sold that Montgomery would actually be better than Buehler though. Monty was garbo last season. For one season, give me Buehler. If it's not working out, you can put him in the pen. Montgomery in the pen offers you zilch. 

For very unsavory reasons, Montgomery had a bad year.  That does happen, but he’s been very reliable throughout the rest of his career.  Buehler is trying to become his former self despite his arm being rebuilt multiple times.  He may never be the same.

For one year, l lean towards Montgomery as the more likely bounce back candidate.  Despite a higher ERA, Montgomery had a better FIP,  lower walk rate, and lower home run rate.  Buehler had a better K rate.

Montgomery most likely has the higher salary. But the years are already set.  It’s for one year.  Buehler should only get a one year deal, but with the number of players involved, it just takes one team willing to guarantee .

I take Montgomery for one guaranteed year with a normal off-season, and I think he outperforms Buehler…

[notin]

59 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

he had his first TJS in 2015 right after he was drafted, and then again in 2022.  So......he should be good to go for 5 years. 

Right. They get scheduled like that.

At least we know he won’t be like Josh Johnson, who had his first in 2007, his second in 2014, then came back in 2016 and FACED ONE BATTER and had to have his third one.

Maybe those timelines between surgeries don’t always balance out..

[Bellhorn04]

Taillon is another guy who has come back from 2 TJs, isn't he?

It seems possible to me that medical science in this area might improve as it goes along.

Admittedly any such improvement might be offset by the "max effort on every pitch" approach to pitching... 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Right. They get scheduled like that.

At least we know he won’t be like Josh Johnson, who had his first in 2007, his second in 2014, then came back in 2016 and FACED ONE BATTER and had to have his third one.

Maybe those timelines between surgeries don’t always balance out..

Well, there's a reason why he's not going to get the same contract as Max Fried.  As you said it's a different kind of risk.  

One I've only been opposed to other years because they've done so in lieu of making other moves.  Augmented with higher end safer moves I'm with it. 

Bieber was my initial choice, as I figured you could sign a Fried or Burnes and have someone like Beiber ready to join the rotation mid season.  You can almost predict someone is going to need to come out of the rotation by then. 

[notin]

58 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Such wonky analysis.

2018-2021 was plenty of innings.

The IP totals the last 3 years are god-awful.  But that tends to be the case with TJ surgeries.

Yes it’s the case with TJS, but that’s whole point and not a brush off excuse.

His 2021 was outstanding, but that’s also 4 years ago now…

[notin]

36 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Taillon is another guy who has come back from 2 TJs, isn't he?

It seems possible to me that medical science in this area might improve as it goes along.

Admittedly any such improvement might be offset by the "max effort on every pitch" approach to pitching... 

There are success stories, like Taillon and Eovaldi.  But with SPs, it’s maybe 50%.

Its actually tough to tell with some pitchers, because about 10 or so years ago, it became a trend by very stupid parents to have TJ surgery done on high school kids because the belief was it lead to throwing harder (it obviously doesn’t).  But it’s possible some MLB pitchers had this done.

I also seem to recall Lucas Giolito had TJ his senior year in high school due to a UCL tear. (He threw hard enough to not need it to augment anything).  If pitchers had it before turning pro, it’s not so easy to find out.  HIPPA and all.  But if I’m right, we’re already hoping for one recovery from two TJs.  Why add another?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Such wonky analysis.

2018-2021 was plenty of innings.

The IP totals the last 3 years are god-awful.  But that tends to be the case with TJ surgeries.

Let's just ignore 2016, 2017, 2022, 2023, 2024, which is 4 of his 8 seasons in pro ball.

But hey, it's "just one injury."

Why are we trying to minimize his history of injuries. I thought, at least this part, was a given: he's been injury prone. The part that is up for debate is will he continue to be, and is he more of a risk than others available.

[Nick]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We could have done it, but sadly, I agree. 

I think JH is looking at Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and maybe a couple other prospects that project to be significant ML'er by 2026 or 2027, and the fact that we have so few key players that will be reaching free agency by 2027 or 2028, that he may set "the window" at 2026-2029 or even 2027-2029/2030.

There is also the chance he does not ever splurge, again, and any "window" would have to happen from the farm and a couple mid-range additions.

I thought the goal was to win the Division. Signing Bregman and Burnes would go long ways in making the Sox faithful back in the fold. Do it John.

We'll be right at they cusp of the luxury tax payroll with these two signings. 

Just week ago JH was going to throw $700M at Soto. All of the sudden, we're done after dishing out $10M to Chapman? Unfreaking real.