Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

Because Refsnyder is worse at outfield defense than Stephen Hawking is at ballet. And just because Anthony isn’t starting in April doesn’t mean he is off out of the picture.

Platoon Yoshida at Ref at DH

Platoon Abreu and Grichuk in RF.  Until Anthony comes up at some point.

And yes, get a catcher !! (The Sox could trade Abreu for a catcher and solve this logjam as well.)

There is some merit to keeping Crawford in the rotation and moving Bello to the bullpen into a high leverage role.  But don’t post about out or else the guy who came up with it will let it go to his head…

Well, I was assuming Grichuk was for an Anthony-less OF. I'm all for opening the season with Anthony pencilled in a a FT OF'er (CF v R and RF v L.)

I do not think playing Ref in LF vs LH"d SP'ers (maybe 40-45 games a year) is going to be a major hit on our defense. His bat is amazing vs LHPs. Yes, he could platoon at DH with Yoshida, but Yoshida does better vs LHPs than almost all our other lefties not named Devers and Casas.

I do not think we need to add another OF'er, unless it is a big difference maker on offense, like Teoscar would be. (Santander would be nice, but 5 years is absurd.)

If we sign a RHB or trade for one, I'd much prefer Bregman or Arenado (with cash involved.)

Depending on how much  STL pays (COL already pays $5M x 2) on Arenado, I'd be mildly happy with an Arenado (for Fitts) & Hoffman end to our winter.

1. Duran LF v R/CR v L

2. Abreu RF v R/Ref LF v L

3. Casas DH/1B

4. Devers 1B/DH

5. Arenado 3B

6. Story SS

7. Campbell 2B (or start the year with DHam-Grissom platoon- Romy if Grissom sucks)

8. Anthony CF v R. RF v L

9. Wong and Narvaez (with Narvaez catching more than many expect)

Bench: Rafaela, Wong/Narvaez, DHam/Grissom/Romy and Yoshida

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Gio, Buehler>Sandoval (once Buehler hits the IL)

RP: Chapman-Henriks co-closers, Hoffman, Salten & Whitlock (7th-9th inning set up) and Crawford, Wink and Wilson as longmen or lefty specialist. 

This, I might be optimistic about. I guess it's doable, if we are okay with going over the tax line to do it, or we get STL to pay down a bigger chunk of Arenado's deal- maybe by adding DHam to the package.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

The “closer by committee” is right up there with beer and chicken along side “bridge year” as the most ridiculous controversies in recent years.  The committee was Chad Fox.  And no one else.  Just Fox.

But as Fox was an inconsistent pitcher capable of highs and lows, if the Sox said “Chad Fox is our closer,” many would have thought “but he sucks!! He’s wildly inconsistent!!” And they’d have been right.  But since the Sox called it “closer by committee”, it then impugned an entire strategy that can actually work pretty well, and everyone ignored that the committee was just Chad Fox…

I totally disagree. We all knew Fox was never going to be our wire-to-wire closer. We knew we'd likely have to try several others to find one that might end up being okay, at best. It ended up working out just as many expected. Sure, we started the year with Fox as "the one." it did not really start with the idea that we'd use one guy day one and another day two, so in that sense, your point is correct, but nobody viewed Fox as the season-long closer.

As it turned out, these were our game-ending pitchers (GF leaders):

35 Kim

31 Lyon

15 Embree

13 Timlin

10 Fox (would have been more had he done well)

8 Mendoza, 7 Jones, 6 Shiell & Williamson and 26 by 11 scrubs.

Saves/Save opportunities

16/19 Kim

9/12 Lyon

2/6 Timlin

3/5 Fox (I was at that opening day game in TB!)

1/2 Embree and Shiell

0/2 Williamson

4/9 by 9 scrubs

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, I was assuming Grichuk was for an Anthony-less OF. I'm all for opening the season with Anthony pencilled in a a FT OF'er (CF v R and RF v L.)

I do not think playing Ref in LF vs LH"d SP'ers (maybe 40-45 games a year) is going to be a major hit on our defense. His bat is amazing vs LHPs. Yes, he could platoon at DH with Yoshida, but Yoshida does better vs LHPs than almost all our other lefties not named Devers and Casas.

I do not think we need to add another OF'er, unless it is a big difference maker on offense, like Teoscar would be. (Santander would be nice, but 5 years is absurd.)

If we sign a RHB or trade for one, I'd much prefer Bregman or Arenado (with cash involved.)

Depending on how much  STL pays (COL already pays $5M x 2) on Arenado, I'd be mildly happy with an Arenado (for Fitts) & Hoffman end to our winter.

1. Duran LF v R/CR v L

2. Abreu RF v R/Ref LF v L

3. Casas DH/1B

4. Devers 1B/DH

5. Arenado 3B

6. Story SS

7. Campbell 2B (or start the year with DHam-Grissom platoon- Romy if Grissom sucks)

8. Anthony CF v R. RF v L

9. Wong and Narvaez (with Narvaez catching more than many expect)

Bench: Rafaela, Wong/Narvaez, DHam/Grissom/Romy and Yoshida

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Gio, Buehler>Sandoval (once Buehler hits the IL)

RP: Chapman-Henriks co-closers, Hoffman, Salten & Whitlock (7th-9th inning set up) and Crawford, Wink and Wilson as longmen or lefty specialist. 

This, I might be optimistic about. I guess it's doable, if we are okay with going over the tax line to do it, or we get STL to pay down a bigger chunk of Arenado's deal- maybe by adding DHam to the package.

I’m not wild about Bregman, but he’s a better option than Arenado, whose last two seasons have shown OPS+ of 108 and 101.

Bregman will cost a lot and decline the last few years.  But getting the shorter Arenado contract is like deciding “ok let’s skip the early, productive years and jump right to the last few when he’s expensive and mediocre.”  Id’d just assume hand 3b to Vaughn Grissom. Or just leave Devers and get elite production on one side only.

Now if STL takes Yoshida in this deal for some reason, that’s different.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally disagree. We all knew Fox was never going to be our wire-to-wire closer. We knew we'd likely have to try several others to find one that might end up being okay, at best. It ended up working out just as many expected. Sure, we started the year with Fox as "the one." it did not really start with the idea that we'd use one guy day one and another day two, so in that sense, your point is correct, but nobody viewed Fox as the season-long closer.

As it turned out, these were our game-ending pitchers (GF leaders):

35 Kim

31 Lyon

15 Embree

13 Timlin

10 Fox (would have been more had he done well)

8 Mendoza, 7 Jones, 6 Shiell & Williamson and 26 by 11 scrubs.

Saves/Save opportunities

16/19 Kim

9/12 Lyon

2/6 Timlin

3/5 Fox (I was at that opening day game in TB!)

1/2 Embree and Shiell

0/2 Williamson

4/9 by 9 scrubs

 

 

Whatever your theory, for the first 54 games of the season, Fox got nearly if not all the save chances.  Whether or not they decided to go with him all year is moot.  After 54 games, they acquired Byung-Hyun Kim.
 

The bottom line is there was never a committee.  A committee by definition is “a GROUP of people appointed to a specific function.”  And the definition of a group, per Merriam-Webster, is “(n) Chad Fox”.  

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m not wild about Bregman, but he’s a better option than Arenado, whose last two seasons have shown OPS+ of 108 and 101.

Bregman will cost a lot and decline the last few years.  But getting the shorter Arenado contract is like deciding “ok let’s skip the early, productive years and jump right to the last few when he’s expensive and mediocre.”  Id’d just assume hand 3b to Vaughn Grissom…

I think we can try to get STL to pay down Arenado's contract by adding a moderate piece- someone who is kind of blocked with us, anyway, like DHam. If we sign Teoscar, we could trade Rafaela and the $48M/7 still owed him to further reduce the $6.3M AAV hit on our budget.

For argument's sake, lets say STL takes Fitts and Rafaela for Arenado, and they pay $10M in '25, $10M in '26 and $5M in '27. COL is already paying $5M for each of the '25 and '26 seasons. That brings the total cost to:

$17M in '25, $12M in '26 and $10M in '27. The AAV would be $15.5M a year, but then subtract Rafaela's $6.3M and it comes to $9,2M a year for 3 years then a savings of $6.3M a year for 4 more years. That's pretty close to a washout in total dollars and AAV over 7 years. Bregman will cost $25-30M x 5-7 years, plus a comp pick lost.

Yes, Bregman is better and younger, but he has a .795 OPS over the last 5 years. He is likely never going to hit like 2017-2019's .924 OPS (147 OPS+) His .795 OPS since then is still a 122 OPS+, so he's no slouch, but he turns 31 around opening day.

Arenado has shown a very steep decline, but he is also as close to his last big O year than Bragman is. Bregman had a 134 OPS+ in 2022, while Arenado was at 151, the same year. Arenado turns 34, shortly after Bregman turns 31. His OPS+ dropped from 151 to 108 to 101 over the last 2 seasons. It's entirely possible he slips below 100 in 2025, maybe as low as 93-97. Bregman was at 122 and 118, the last 2 years, and his decline should be slower. He's still young enough to have a rebound year, too.

I think getting Arenado instead of Bregman might allow us to also add Hoffman, Teoscar or more likely Estevez or Kittredge.

[Larry Cook]

Speaking of closer, Helsey and arenado solve two problems for us. Will bres-slow decide to pursue this ????

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Whatever your theory, for the first 54 games of the season, Fox got nearly if not all the save chances.  Whether or not they decided to go with him all year is moot.  After 54 games, they acquired Byung-Hyun Kim.
 

The bottom line is there was never a committee.  A committee by definition is “a GROUP of people appointed to a specific function.”  And the definition of a group, per Merriam-Webster, is “(n) Chad Fox”.  

I said your point was literally correct, but within some context. Now, upon further review, I think I was more right than I thought.

Also, Fox did not get all the save opportunities until we got Kim. Here is every last inning save opportunity after opening day and up to Kim.

Game 2, we took the lead in the 16th, and stuck with Lyon, while Fox was in the bullpen.

Game 3: Fox got the save going in up 7-5.

Game 4: We entered the 9th up 8-3, and Mendoza allowed 4 runs to create a save situation, but Fox remained on the bench. Mendoza was allowed to finish.

(Fox blew a 1-1 game in between here) 

Game 10: Sox were up 8-4 going to the bottom of the 9th. Fox was rested. Timlin remained in the game  and nearly blew the game by letting up 3 runs. We could have brought in Fox for a save and did not.

Game 12: Sox up 2-0 and Wake got the 2 IP save not Fox.

Game 14: Fox pitched the 8th, the Sox scored for in the 8th and Lyon pitched the 9th for the save.

I'm stopping here, because this was clearly a closer by committee, right after game 1.

 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Speaking of closer, Helsey and arenado solve two problems for us. Will bres-slow decide to pursue this ????

I suggested such a trade, long ago. Word is STL does not want to trade Helsley, but then there were rumors afterwards of teams talking about him.

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I suggested such a trade, long ago. Word is STL does not want to trade Helsley, but then there were rumors afterwards of teams talking about him.

Do we give slaten first shot until Hendricks gets back up to speed????

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Do we give slaten first shot until Hendricks gets back up to speed????

I think Chapman and Hendriks will be given a 50-50 shot, going into ST'ing. If both fail to win the job, of suck after winning it, I think Whitlock might have the same shot as Slaten.

People are all gah-gah over 10 innings of Buehler and a great season, two years ago, but Whitlock was lights out for his last 18 IP of 2024 and was great, two to three years ago, too.

[Larry Cook]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Chapman and Hendriks will be given a 50-50 shot, going into ST'ing. If both fail to win the job, of suck after winning it, I think Whitlock might have the same shot as Slaten.

People are all gah-gah over 10 innings of Buehler and a great season, two years ago, but Whitlock was lights out for his last 18 IP of 2024 and was great, two to three years ago, too.

Can Whitlock be ready to go by April?? 

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Chapman and Hendriks will be given a 50-50 shot, going into ST'ing. If both fail to win the job, of suck after winning it, I think Whitlock might have the same shot as Slaten.

People are all gah-gah over 10 innings of Buehler and a great season, two years ago, but Whitlock was lights out for his last 18 IP of 2024 and was great, two to three years ago, too.

I'm not "gah-gah" over Whitlock, but I'm happy we still have him and hopeful for a good 2025 for him.  His ability is not in question.  

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not "gah-gah" over Whitlock, but I'm happy we still have him and hopeful for a good 2025 for him.  His ability is not in question.  

Both Whitlock and Buehler have shown extended times of greatness. Both have dealt with injuries, and ended their 2024 season pitching very well. Whitlock's season ended in injury, while Buehler's ended in glory.

I hope both find their mojo and go nutty in '25. We have a lot of pitchers on our staff that have had some great seasons, some not too long ago- some 5-9 years back. Most have had decent to excellent seasons very recently (1-3 years ago.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you can have one more free agent signing this offseason -- never mind the actual name of the player -- which one need would you fill? 

(note: #1-4 would all bat right-handed)

1: DH/OF

2: First baseman

3: Second baseman 

4: Third baseman 

5: Catcher

6: Closer

7: Starting pitcher

... at this point, I'd pay the relief pitcher, and go with the young bats.

 

 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If you can have one more free agent signing this offseason -- never mind the actual name of the player -- which one need would you fill? 

(note: #1-4 would all bat right-handed)

1: DH/OF

2: First baseman

3: Second baseman 

4: Third baseman 

5: Catcher

6: Closer

7: Starting pitcher

... at this point, I'd pay the relief pitcher, and go with the young bats.

 

 

1. RP, if Scott or Hoffman (or trade for Helsley)

2. 3B (move Devers to 1B/DH and Casas to Dh/1B share)

3. SP

4. Catcher (via trade)

I would not sign a 1Bman or 2Bman.

I'd be okay with a RHB like Teoscar, assuming we'd trade Abreu or Rafaela for a RP'er of note.

[Larry Cook]

Is Carson Kelly still available????

any interest in McCann????? Or bringing back McGuire????

we cannot only have 2 catchers on the 40 man roster!!!!!!

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is Carson Kelly still available????

any interest in McCann????? Or bringing back McGuire????

we cannot only have 2 catchers on the 40 man roster!!!!!!

We may just go with Narvaez, who is very good on D and ML ready. He showed some power on the farm and has a decent OBP, but his K rate is scary.

Here are the FAs still available:

 

Curt Casali (36)
Elias Diaz (34)
Yan Gomes (37)
Yasmani Grandal (36)
Andrew Knizner (30)
Luke Maile (34)
Martin Maldonado (38)
James McCann (35)
Reese McGuire (30)
Omar Narvaez (33)
Tomas Nido (31)

[mvp 78]

On 12/24/2024 at 3:18 PM, notin said:

Whatever your theory, for the first 54 games of the season, Fox got nearly if not all the save chances.  Whether or not they decided to go with him all year is moot.  After 54 games, they acquired Byung-Hyun Kim.
 

The bottom line is there was never a committee.  A committee by definition is “a GROUP of people appointed to a specific function.”  And the definition of a group, per Merriam-Webster, is “(n) Chad Fox”.  

Closer by throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing when it finally sticks. 

[Larry Cook]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We may just go with Narvaez, who is very good on D and ML ready. He showed some power on the farm and has a decent OBP, but his K rate is scary.

Here are the FAs still available:

 

Curt Casali (36)
Elias Diaz (34)
Yan Gomes (37)
Yasmani Grandal (36)
Andrew Knizner (30)
Luke Maile (34)
Martin Maldonado (38)
James McCann (35)
Reese McGuire (30)
Omar Narvaez (33)
Tomas Nido (31)

Why go with one narvaez at catcher when we can have two?????

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Why go with one narvaez at catcher when we can have two?????

I'm not sure we want to use a 40 man slot for one of those guys.

Guys like Heineman and Zavala are always out there.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure we want to use a 40 man slot for one of those guys.

Guys like Heineman and Zavala are always out there.

Wong isn't much more than a 100 game guy. They needs an upgrade over these types IMO. 

[notin]

On 12/25/2024 at 3:57 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If you can have one more free agent signing this offseason -- never mind the actual name of the player -- which one need would you fill? 

(note: #1-4 would all bat right-handed)

1: DH/OF

2: First baseman

3: Second baseman 

4: Third baseman 

5: Catcher

6: Closer

7: Starting pitcher

... at this point, I'd pay the relief pitcher, and go with the young bats.

 

 

Catcher!!

 

What young bat do you go with behind the plate?  Our top prospect at the position is 20yo Johanfran Garcia, who starts 2025 in Greenville…

[notin]

On 12/25/2024 at 9:56 PM, Larry Cook said:

Is Carson Kelly still available????

any interest in McCann????? Or bringing back McGuire????

we cannot only have 2 catchers on the 40 man roster!!!!!!

Kelly is a Cub.  Elias Diaz is the top backstop still on the market…

[Bellhorn04]

On 12/24/2024 at 2:22 PM, notin said:

The “closer by committee” is right up there with beer and chicken along side “bridge year” as the most ridiculous controversies in recent years.  The committee was Chad Fox.  And no one else.  Just Fox.

But as Fox was an inconsistent pitcher capable of highs and lows, if the Sox said “Chad Fox is our closer,” many would have thought “but he sucks!! He’s wildly inconsistent!!” And they’d have been right.  But since the Sox called it “closer by committee”, it then impugned an entire strategy that can actually work pretty well, and everyone ignored that the committee was just Chad Fox…

Why do you refuse to acknowledge the existence of Brandon Lyon?

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Kelly is a Cub.  Elias Diaz is the top backstop still on the market…

Grandal is a really good framer, but can't throw anyone out. 

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why do you refuse to acknowledge the existence of Brandon Lyon?

It went Fox to Lyon to Kim

[mvp 78]

Williamson was the closer in the playoffs

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure we want to use a 40 man slot for one of those guys.

Guys like Heineman and Zavala are always out there.

If Heineman or Zavala are the second catcher and we let Jansen walk Breslow should be fired and sued for malpractice. 

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a 2003 "closer by committee" article by McAdam.  Pretty hilarious reading now.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/columns/mcadam_sean/1489225.html

 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If Heineman or Zavala are the second catcher and we let Jansen walk Breslow should be fired and sued for malpractice. 

Not sure I'd want Zavala ahead of Narvaez on the depth chart.