Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Cohen would have gone $250M more to get Soto, then why not spend that on Burnes?

Cohen didn't have to spend $250M than he did for Soto, so that's all in Hypothetical Never-Never Land.  All he had to do was beat the Yanks, and he knew the Yanks would be just a bit more rational than him.  

As for Burnes, I can deal with this hypothetical.  It's quite possible that while Cohen thinks Soto is worth every penny, he's not nearly as big on Burnes.

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I've already stated why a few times. 

Yes, but I was asking Bell, who seems to have a different view of Cohen.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Cohen didn't have to spend $250M than he did for Soto, so that's all in Hypothetical Never-Never Land.  All he had to do was beat the Yanks, and he knew the Yanks would be just a bit more rational than him.  

As for Burnes, I can deal with this hypothetical.  It's quite possible that while Cohen thinks Soto is worth every penny, he's not nearly as big on Burnes.

 

Okay. It just seemed to me that you were saying/thinking that Cohen set his mind on getting Soto for "whatever it took," regardless of what he was actually worth and was prepared to pay more than his actual worth, and that having more than triple JH's $6B net worth was the final factor.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. It just seemed to me that you were saying/thinking that Cohen set his mind on getting Soto for "whatever it took," regardless of what he was actually worth and was prepared to pay more than his actual worth, and that having more than triple JH's $6B net worth was the final factor.

No, I really don't see things in such simplistic terms.

But yeah, I think it does ultimately matter that Cohen is not only worth 3-4 times as much as JH, but he has no one to answer to the way JH does.  

It's why Cohen can withstand a $475 million fiasco like 2023 and just smile and keep on trucking.

 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, I really don't see things in such simplistic terms.

But yeah, I think it does ultimately matter that Cohen is not only worth 3-4 times as much as JH, but he has no one to answer to the way JH does.  

It's why Cohen can withstand a $475 million fiasco like 2023 and just smile and keep on trucking.

 

I think that it's an FSG conglomerate really changes how they view spending on the Sox. Henry doesn't own a majority of the Sox, but he does need to return value to his shareholders. Maybe they'll open up the bank vault again, but it's been shut tight for a while now. 

[moonslav59]

JH spent a ton of money on 2019.

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

JH spent a ton of money on 2019.

That's certainly how he sees it.  Hasn't been the same since.

But it was peanuts compared to the $475 million Cohen expended on 2023.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

JH spent a ton of money on 2019.

Ok? 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's certainly how he sees it.  Hasn't been the same since.

But it was peanuts compared to the $475 million Cohen expended on 2023.

"I spent money and it didn't work out for one year! Time to trade our generational talent and rebuild for five years!!!" 

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think that it's an FSG conglomerate really changes how they view spending on the Sox. Henry doesn't own a majority of the Sox, but he does need to return value to his shareholders. Maybe they'll open up the bank vault again, but it's been shut tight for a while now. 

Sure, especially with FSG pursuing and acquiring other businesses and growing their properties well beyond just Red Sox/Fenway - they operate from the business side first.

As opposed to Cohen, who is just a crazed fan with ultra deep pockets.

But when you operate from a business perspective first, that doesnt mean that you never spend/take-risks. It just means its more strategic / calculated.

Of course, they will open the vault again.  There are times to invest in your business and times to draw from it. Good business is not "always be cheap, never spend money: but its also not "spend , spend , spend, wins first, fans first"

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

"I spent money and it didn't work out for one year! Time to trade our generational talent and rebuild for five years!!!" 

You joke but "fan capital" is a real thing.  We are not the only team that has spent heavily, had a period of winning, and then fell back.  Its kind of cyclical, like many many things.

But the fan capital is approaching E and its time to refill the tank. I think theyll spend this year, and if not , next.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You joke but "fan capital" is a real thing.  We are not the only team that has spent heavily, had a period of winning, and then fell back.  Its kind of cyclical, like many many things.

But the fan capital is approaching E and its time to refill the tank. I think theyll spend this year, and if not , next.

If they keep putting it off, Fenway will be filled more and more by away fans. I was at the Padres series this year and it was ROUGH.

[mvp 78]

Also, putting your faith in owners is the last thing anyone should be doing right now. They might be smart in however they made their money, but they are pretty dumb when it comes to running their teams more often than not. 

 

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's certainly how he sees it.  Hasn't been the same since.

But it was peanuts compared to the $475 million Cohen expended on 2023.

Okay. Cohen was 22.6% over the second team ($63M more than second team) , while in 2018, JH was just 10.5% higher ($21.7M more spent) than #2.

[Duran Is The Man]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

"I spent money and it didn't work out for one year! Time to trade our generational talent and rebuild for five years!!!" 

yeah, one off year after three straight AL east titles. "BURN IT DOWN!"

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah, one off year after three straight AL east titles. "BURN IT DOWN!"

All true, but it would have taken some serious spending to keep all our arb-ending stars, and some were aged out by 2019-2020, anyway. It would have been very costly to replace Kimbrel, Kelly, Porcello and later, JD, ERod, Nate, Sale and others, and those weren't even the arb guys.

I'm not defending JH, but the farm gave us next to zero from Devers in '17 to Houck & Duran in '20-'21. It's hard for any team to make up for that by spending more and more.

Sure, in hindsight, just extend Betts & Bogey and let Sale and Nate walk, but who pitches, and at what cost?

The team was headed towards a massive payroll budget, if we really tried to keep all the main pieces, guessed right on which ones to keep and replaced aging or departing players in kind.

While Porcello's post Cy Young Award numbers could be easily replaced, what would it have cost?

While that roster still had some top talent, it also had a ton of deadwood, very little farm infusion outlook and some big paydays coming up.

This was the payroll in 2019. It looked frightening!

$31M x 3 years Price (The guy sucked by then)

$22M JD x 3 (He still had some good seasons, but not like 2018)

$20.6M x 1 Porcello

$20M/1 Betts (last arb and wanting about $30M/yr)

$17M x 4 Nate (was extended)

$15M Sale but was extended to $30M/yr starting in 2020

$12M Bogey (last arb

$8.6M JBJ w 1 arb left, headed for a big payday & decline)

$5-6M: Moreland, Pearce & Nunez (anyone want them back?)

$4.3M ERod (2 arbs left)

$2.9M Vav (3 year extension with modest raises)

$1.6M Barnes (2 arbs and decline coming up)

Note: Kimbrel & Kelly were never replaced after 2018.

Holding this team together was no easy task, and one could argue, bringing all these guys back would have been a failure, too.

[mvp 78]

Pedroia 15M (through '21)

Pablo 19M

Nunez 5M

Pearce 6M

Holt 4M

They were getting 35M in savings just from the 4 guys above leaving after '19. Pedroia was a sunk cost. Even Price was somewhat of a sunk cost. You won a WS with him and then you eat the end of the contract. That's why you sign those guys. Could they have traded Price and half his deal for a low A pitcher on his own? Probably. 

They CHOSE to not re-sign Mookie and blow it up. 

 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They CHOSE to not re-sign Mookie and blow it up. 

 

Is anyone disputing this?

Assume we get Mookie to agree to the Dodger contract with us.

Assume we don't cut the budget from $236M to $180M like we did, but just reduce to $200M, instead.

31 Price

30 Betts

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Nate

14 Kimbrel

14 Pedey

20 Vaz, ERod, Barnes

This leaves about $30M for the other 30 guys on the 40.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is anyone disputing this?

Assume we get Mookie to agree to the Dodger contract with us.

Assume we don't cut the budget from $236M to $180M like we did, but just reduce to $200M, instead.

31 Price

30 Betts

22 JD

20 Bogey

17 Nate

14 Kimbrel

14 Pedey

20 Vaz, ERod, Barnes

This leaves about $30M for the other 30 guys on the 40.

Why is Kimbrel being paid 14M? He wasn't with the Sox. Also unsure why you are setting that particular budget. If they go over again, it's not the end of the world. Also Also I suggest trading half of Price's contract. 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why is Kimbrel being paid 14M? He wasn't with the Sox. Also unsure why you are setting that particular budget. If they go over again, it's not the end of the world. Also Also I suggest trading half of Price's contract. 

Well, I thought the idea was to keep the team intact. Okay, take away Kimbrel and the contract he got and replace him with someone better at $14M.

Why do you assume the budget would be higher than the $20M I added?

You think trading Price + half his money would be easier without including Betts?

Also, what about the need to give Bogey a bigger and longer extension, and how has he been since he left BOS? Do we keep JBJ?

We can "best case scenario" this to death and create a decent team, but the costs were going through the ceiling, even with Porcello coming off the books and later, Pedey.

Imagine the payroll being $18)m, which is what it was, not $200, like I suggested.

Of course, it was JH's "choice" to slash & Burn, and Betts was the poster boy for that, but that roster was a tough one to keep strong without massive spending. The farm help did eventually come, but not really in time to keep us strong from 2019 to today.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, I thought the idea was to keep the team intact. Okay, take away Kimbrel and the contract he got and replace him with someone better at $14M.

Why do you assume the budget would be higher than the $20M I added?

You think trading Price + half his money would be easier without including Betts?

Also, what about the need to give Bogey a bigger and longer extension, and how has he been since he left BOS? Do we keep JBJ?

We can "best case scenario" this to death and create a decent team, but the costs were going through the ceiling, even with Porcello coming off the books and later, Pedey.

Imagine the payroll being $18)m, which is what it was, not $200, like I suggested.

Of course, it was JH's "choice" to slash & Burn, and Betts was the poster boy for that, but that roster was a tough one to keep strong without massive spending. The farm help did eventually come, but not really in time to keep us strong from 2019 to today.

It's not about keeping the entire team intact, it's about keeping your franchise player around for the remainder of his career. If you have to move on from other guys because of that, fine. 

[mvp 78]

I think Mookie would have looked really good on this team in 2021! 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not about keeping the entire team intact, it's about keeping your franchise player around for the remainder of his career. If you have to move on from other guys because of that, fine. 

I was all for keeping Betts, but it would have made for some serious juggling and payroll boosts to make it work.

Yes, it was JH's choice. I agree on that.

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was all for keeping Betts, but it would have made for some serious juggling and payroll boosts to make it work.

Yes, it was JH's choice. I agree on that.

 

I don't think the juggling was THAT serious. They just put saving $ at the forefront for several years. 

But good sir, they went over the CBT in '22 by 50 cents! 

Don't care. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think the juggling was THAT serious. They just put saving $ at the forefront for several years. 

But good sir, they went over the CBT in '22 by 50 cents! 

Don't care. 

You could hindsight hand-pick all the best signings from 2019-2024 and make it work at almost any budget above $180M.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You could hindsight hand-pick all the best signings from 2019-2024 and make it work at almost any budget above $180M.

I don't need to handpick the best signings. Just keep Betts and dump half of Price. Don't re-sign Porcello. Don't re-sign Kimbrel. 2020 becomes a wash, but they can dump players to get under the cap once Sale and ERod go down. 

Make the same moves in 2021 except you don't need to sign Renfroe.

Make the same moves in 2022 except they don't need to trade for JBJ. 

Both those years get better with Mookie. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I don't need to handpick the best signings. Just keep Betts and dump half of Price. Don't re-sign Porcello. Don't re-sign Kimbrel. 2020 becomes a wash, but they can dump players to get under the cap once Sale and ERod go down. 

Make the same moves in 2021 except you don't need to sign Renfroe.

Make the same moves in 2022 except they don't need to trade for JBJ. 

Both those years get better with Mookie. 

If the bar is just to be "better," I can't disagree. I do think the half-Price dump may have needed to be a 3/4 Price dump. I'd still like to see what the budgets would have been, all those years, and you still did a bit of hindsight picks.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If the bar is just to be "better," I can't disagree. I do think the half-Price dump may have needed to be a 3/4 Price dump. I'd still like to see what the budgets would have been, all those years, and you still did a bit of hindsight picks.

What's the hindsight picks? The only adjustments I made was to not make any future moves for RF (JBJ, Renfroe) where Betts would be playing. 

[moonslav59]

Who takes half-Price at half price?

Porcello was a no-brainer, granted, but many were bummed about losing Kimbrel, until he started sucking. Some wanted ERod back. Some wish we now had Sale.

[moonslav59]

With Arenado refusing the Astros trade, I wonder if we may have talks with STL, and no, not with Yoshida going to STL.

Apparently, STL was willing to pay $5M for each of the 3 remaining years. (COl is paying $5M for the next 2 years, each.)

If the number stayed the same, his cost would be:

$22M in 2025 ($20.5 AAV)

$17M in 2026 ($20.5 AAV)

$10M in 2027 ($10 AAV)

If we gave them Rafaela, the total money would be pretty close, but the AAV would be:

$14M in 2025 and 2026, and $3.5 in 2027, then a savings of about $6M/yr from 2028 to 2031`.

He'd greatly improve our defense, and the contract would still allow us to sign a pitcher and maybe TH and a pitcher, or sign TH and trade Abreu and Casas for a pitcher. (Throw in Wink! LOL)