Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

Tend to agree.  While much is made of the loss of his 1.180 OPS vs LHP, no one mentions the loss of his .693 OPS vs RHP.

I’d like a RHH bat somewhere, but a lefty-heavy lineup that’s stronger against the much larger population of RHP in MLB isn’t some sort of death nail.

The big problem with the SP was that the Sox never had a complete rotation once Giolito and Whitlock went down before April was out.  Criswell was fifth on the team with 18 starts.  Once Whitlock went down, there was enough season left for 26-28 starts out of a 5th starter.  The Sox got a little over half of that…

Plus, keeping O'Neall is hardly a sure bet we would have been keeping the 2024 O'Neall.

[Bellhorn04]

48 minutes ago, notin said:

Tend to agree.  While much is made of the loss of his 1.180 OPS vs LHP, no one mentions the loss of his .693 OPS vs RHP.

I’d like a RHH bat somewhere, but a lefty-heavy lineup that’s stronger against the much larger population of RHP in MLB isn’t some sort of death nail.

OK, let's set the L-R thing aside for a moment.

O'Neill was #2 on the team in OPS and #3 in Offensive WAR.  And he hasn't been replaced.

It's just not a good thing. 

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Plus, keeping O'Neall is hardly a sure bet we would have been keeping the 2024 O'Neall.

There aren't many sure bets in baseball.

[Bellhorn04]

It is a little amusing to keep hearing that O'Neill is 'no big loss' when he was one of our best hitters last year.  Doesn't say much for our other hitters.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There aren't many sure bets in baseball.

No, but O'Neall might be one of the hardest to project.

STEAMERS projected 111 games, a .749 OPS and 1.8 WAR.

.232  23  67 for old schoolers

Other projections:

K Campbell .266  10  43 (.768 OPS and 2.0 WAR) 96 gms

Anthony  .244  8  38 (.724 OPS) 0.8 WAR in 91 gms

Maybe, they did "replace" him.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No, but O'Neall might be one of the hardest to project.

STEAMERS projected 111 games, a .749 OPS and 1.8 WAR.

.232  23  67 for old schoolers

Other projections:

K Campbell .266  10  43 (.768 OPS and 2.0 WAR) 96 gms

Anthony  .244  8  38 (.724 OPS) 0.8 WAR in 91 gms

Maybe, they did "replace" him.

I've been saying all along, the only thing that can save this offense is the kids.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I've been saying all along, the only thing that can save this offense is the kids.

It should not have been "the plan," but it sure looks like it is.

Ideally, you don't count on the kids, until they've shown something or actually won the job, the year before.

[Hitch]

21 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I can understand thinking that Alonso was not a great target.  He's a very expensive !B/DH.  We'd have to move Casas or Yoshida to make it happen.  Unlike Arenado or Bregman, he would do nothing for the problem of our infield defense.

 

 

 

We would not be trading Casas in that scenario, but Yoshida if we could. I'm not 100% sure that we're going to do anything about our infield defence regardless. I could put up with it if Alonso was hitting 40+ bombs however.  A first 5 of Duran, Devers, Alonso, Casas and Story would do damage. 

Anyway, all moot now.

[moonslav59]

"Moot" is the Sox word for the winter.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, let's set the L-R thing aside for a moment.

O'Neill was #2 on the team in OPS and #3 in Offensive WAR.  And he hasn't been replaced.

It's just not a good thing. 

He could be replaced, but I wouldn't have brought him back. His contract isn't worth it IMO. There were other similar bats for cheaper. Sox didn't grab them though. 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It is a little amusing to keep hearing that O'Neill is 'no big loss' when he was one of our best hitters last year.  Doesn't say much for our other hitters.

O'Neill '24 2.5 fWAR

Renfroe '21 2.6 fWAR

They can always find these guys IF THEY WANT TO. 

[Bellhorn04]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He could be replaced, but I wouldn't have brought him back. His contract isn't worth it IMO. There were other similar bats for cheaper. Sox didn't grab them though. 

Right. And I'm not saying they should have brought him back.  He cashed in, good for him.  All I'm saying is the offense needed some help that, as you say, has not been forthcoming.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right. And I'm not saying they should have brought him back.  He cashed in, good for him.  All I'm saying is the offense needed some help that, as you say, has not been forthcoming.

It wasn't high on MY priority list at the start of the offseason and it doesn't really seem to be high on theirs either. We'll see if it hurts them in the end. 

[moonslav59]

I think they view Anthony and Campbell as options to replace O'Neill. Campbell bats righty, and Anthony has had decent splits as a LHB.

[Hugh2]

if your #3 WAR player isn't a starter then not replacing him isn't the issue.  

[notin]

18 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I've been saying all along, the only thing that can save this offense is the kids.

And hoping for full seasons (or at least larger ones) from Casas, Story and Grissom…

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

if your #3 WAR player isn't a starter then not replacing him isn't the issue.  

Comparing the WAR of players from the past few seasons to when the Sox were year in/year out playoff threats is pretty sad. 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

And hoping for full seasons (or at least larger ones) from Casas, Story and Grissom…

...and Giolito, Buehler, Devers, Hendriks and maybe 5 months of Whitlock.

[harmony]

The Red Sox reportedly have "expressed interest" in a Justin Turner reunion:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6127585/2025/02/10/chicago-cubs-justin-turner-interest/?source=emp_shared_article&onboarded=true

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/cubs-among-teams-with-interest-in-justin-turner.html

 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox reportedly have "expressed interest" in a Justin Turner reunion:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6127585/2025/02/10/chicago-cubs-justin-turner-interest/?source=emp_shared_article&onboarded=true

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/cubs-among-teams-with-interest-in-justin-turner.html

 

Only makes sense, if we have a deal in place to dump Yoshida. Even then, I'd look elsewhere.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 hours ago, harmony said:

The Red Sox reportedly have "expressed interest" in a Justin Turner reunion:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6127585/2025/02/10/chicago-cubs-justin-turner-interest/?source=emp_shared_article&onboarded=true

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/cubs-among-teams-with-interest-in-justin-turner.html

 

I don't know if Turner will fit in with this high-powered offense. He only Ks in less than 20% of his at bats.

That's not even one strikeout per game! When he's up, old viewers can make a sandwich -- probably in less time than it will take them to figure out how to doordash.

[Hitch]

The Bregman show seems likely to come to a close in the next few days. From most reports it's down to the Cubs, Tigers or us. Hitters don't tend to like Comercia Park, so maybe that removes them from the equation, all things being equal. Maybe that's not much of factor.

There are also several reports coming out from the Cardinals journos that the Arenado deal is done and in place (with us as his 3rd choice behind LAD and NYY). With disputed arguments about whether it is reliant on Bregman or not. A Boston source has apparently said the deal is in place, and not Bregman reliant. Hints that it is about Casas going the other way with not much salary heading our way and an additional player to be added which is holding things up a little.

There's no way in the world I see us singing both Arenado and Bregman. I'm finding it hard enough to believe in Bregman, but either way, it feels like both are coming to a closure soon.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The Bregman show seems likely to come to a close in the next few days. From most reports it's down to the Cubs, Tigers or us. Hitters don't tend to like Comercia Park, so maybe that removes them from the equation, all things being equal. Maybe that's not much of factor.

There are also several reports coming out from the Cardinals journos that the Arenado deal is done and in place (with us as his 3rd choice behind LAD and NYY). With disputed arguments about whether it is reliant on Bregman or not. A Boston source has apparently said the deal is in place, and not Bregman reliant. Hints that it is about Casas going the other way with not much salary heading our way and an additional player to be added which is holding things up a little.

There's no way in the world I see us singing both Arenado and Bregman. I'm finding it hard enough to believe in Bregman, but either way, it feels like both are coming to a closure soon.

Can't imagine a smart front office trading an up-and-coming hitter like Casas for a down-and-going Arenado -- unless there are other valuable pieces coming back.

I hope it's not just a way to get someone to take Yoshida (like throwing Betts in a deal to get rid of Price).

If the Sox do move Casas, they either have doubts about his core issues or whether they can extend him for less than market value.

[Hitch]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Can't imagine a smart front office trading an up-and-coming hitter like Casas for a down-and-going Arenado -- unless there are other valuable pieces coming back.

I hope it's not just a way to get someone to take Yoshida (like throwing Betts in a deal to get rid of Price).

If the Sox do move Casas, they either have doubts about his core issues or whether they can extend him for less than market value.

It both doesn't make sense and does. They've definitely been trying to move Casas most of the winter (Cortilo and McAdams have been saying as much virtually every pod since the winter Meetings), and as you point out, we've seen the Mookie play before. So they could either be asking for little money back and an extra player on top, or attaching Yoshida (which out of everything feels the least likely).

Again, I just don't see it, but an infield of:

1B Devers 

2B Bregman

SS Story

3B Arenado

 

Certainly makes it a plus. With Duran, Raf and Abreu in the outfield, the defence would suddenly be a strength of a team that has had none for a few years now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It both doesn't make sense and does. They've definitely been trying to move Casas most of the winter (Cortilo and McAdams have been saying as much virtually every pod since the winter Meetings), and as you point out, we've seen the Mookie play before. So they could either be asking for little money back and an extra player on top, or attaching Yoshida (which out of everything feels the least likely).

Again, I just don't see it, but an infield of:

1B Devers 

2B Bregman

SS Story

3B Arenado

 

Certainly makes it a plus. With Duran, Raf and Abreu in the outfield, the defence would suddenly be a strength of a team that has had none for a few years now.

THAT line-up would have me agreeing -- for once -- with Sam Kennedy, showing an "incredibly aggressive" front office (instead of inevitably regressive and depressive).

And what better way to support a reinforced starting rotation than with a veteran Gold Glove caliber infield? 

It would also allow for less-pressurized arrivals for the prospects, easing them into positions when injuries or trades create openings -- or even rotating around the horn (for Campbell or Mayer) when the oldsters need days off to DH.

[Hitch]

21 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

THAT line-up would have me agreeing -- for once -- with Sam Kennedy, showing an "incredibly aggressive" front office (instead of inevitably regressive and depressive).

And what better way to support a reinforced starting rotation than with a veteran Gold Glove caliber infield? 

It would also allow for less-pressurized arrivals for the prospects, easing them into positions when injuries or trades create openings -- or even rotating around the horn (for Campbell or Mayer) when the oldsters need days off to DH.

For what it's worth, Cardinals beat writer Katie Woo posted this morning that the Red Sox are the most likely ending point for him, but that she sees it as unlikely due to Bregman/payroll issues. 

So there really does appear little chance of that line up. which we'd all be pretty sure was the case anyway.

[moonslav59]

Casas hits LHPs better than Arenado and Bregman, over the past 1-2 seasons. Neither swap outs would help in that area. It's not just about batting from the right side: you actually need to het lefties well to be a solution to that problem.

This deal(s) would be about defense, and if we dealt Casas, it would hurt the O and cost a lot of money.

I'm a firm no on trading Casas to add one or both of these guys.

I'm a no on Arenado for a bag of balls, if he costs us more than $11-13M/yr.

Bregman at 2B is a firm no, but with Arenado at 3B, it's not bad, but I'd still want Devers at 1B/DH and Casas at DH/1B with Yoshida gone or in a LF platoon with Ref.

[mvp 78]

57 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It both doesn't make sense and does. They've definitely been trying to move Casas most of the winter (Cortilo and McAdams have been saying as much virtually every pod since the winter Meetings), and as you point out, we've seen the Mookie play before. So they could either be asking for little money back and an extra player on top, or attaching Yoshida (which out of everything feels the least likely).

Again, I just don't see it, but an infield of:

1B Devers 

2B Bregman

SS Story

3B Arenado

 

Certainly makes it a plus. With Duran, Raf and Abreu in the outfield, the defence would suddenly be a strength of a team that has had none for a few years now.

Attaching Casas for them to take Yoshida is fricking stupid. 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Attaching Casas for them to take Yoshida is fricking stupid. 

Of course, but can't be counted out with this front office. As unlikely as it is. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Of course, but can't be counted out with this front office. As unlikely as it is. 

I'm not going to get worked up over hypothetical bad trades until one actually happens. 

Plan 1: Sign Bregman to a 3-4 year deal

Plan 2: Trade low level prospect(s) for Arrenado's full contract

Plan 3: Shrug and say "at least we tried" to the fans