Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Hitch]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

These things don't seem so important to the Sox and even to a lot of fans any more.

I'm probably on the more cautious side of things as far as deals go. I detest the idea of spending money just to spend it. But if we're saying no to a guy that would sit between Devers and Casas and offer anything from 30 to 50 HR's with his pull power, all because of a compensatory draft pick we're getting back anyway... I'm not sure what people want.

The whole point is to get in the play offs and try and win it all.

[Bellhorn04]

27 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm probably on the more cautious side of things as far as deals go. I detest the idea of spending money just to spend it. But if we're saying no to a guy that would sit between Devers and Casas and offer anything from 30 to 50 HR's with his pull power, all because of a compensatory draft pick we're getting back anyway... I'm not sure what people want.

The whole point is to get in the play offs and try and win it all.

And cheaper RH bats like Laureano and Grichuk have been scooped up.

If Breslow doesn't get a RH bat at all, it'll be pretty pathetic.  And yet not shocking.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And cheaper RH bats like Laureano and Grichuk have been scooped up.

If Breslow doesn't get a RH bat at all, it'll be pretty pathetic.  And yet not shocking.

He said he's still looking for a "game-changer." 

He should just look in the living rooms of Red Sox Nation -- there must be plenty of viewers with TV remotes willing to change games when bored from watching an incomplete team.

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How can we ever know?

For one thing, we don't even know if Alonso chose the best deal.

Because Boras was the only one given a chance to find out.  That most elite ball players choose him to be their voice in negotiations is what does make him best…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And cheaper RH bats like Laureano and Grichuk have been scooped up.

If Breslow doesn't get a RH bat at all, it'll be pretty pathetic.  And yet not shocking.

Reportedly he is keeping Arenado open while talking to Bregman.

I think the Sox are the only team linked to Arenado, but St. Louis might not move him until Bregman signs regardless.  I just hope if the Sox do finally settle for Arenado, they don’t give up Fitts (which is the only name I’ve heard so far).  

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

He's been on Masslive again saying the budget is there to spend if the right player comes along. 

That player was Alonso for the contract he got. Share 1B/DH with Casas, Hit a bag full of HR's and then opt out, or at worst we're only stuck with hm for one more year.  You've got your RH power bat, and you're not blocking any prospects. It would have meant another year of Devers at 3rd, but you can't win em all.

Casas hits lefties pretty well. No thanks.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And cheaper RH bats like Laureano and Grichuk have been scooped up.

If Breslow doesn't get a RH bat at all, it'll be pretty pathetic.  And yet not shocking.

Seeing those two sign bummed me out. I'd like to think Brez has a plan, but with these cheapies, I can't expect anything, anymore. Maybe, he's already decided that once Bregman decides, it will be him or Arenado, but neither is all that great vs LHPs, and Arenado has actually sucked vs lefties for 2 straight years.

[notin]

Maybe Breslow will surprise us all and deal Crawford for Alex Bohm, allowing Dombrowski to swoop in and overpaying for Bregman.  
 

Then Boston will bring back Nick Pivetta as their new closer. 

Boom.  Postseason…

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Reportedly he is keeping Arenado open while talking to Bregman.

I think the Sox are the only team linked to Arenado, but St. Louis might not move him until Bregman signs regardless.  I just hope if the Sox do finally settle for Arenado, they don’t give up Fitts (which is the only name I’ve heard so far).  

I'm not sure why so many posters want Arenado, and I'm a huge fan of defense. The guy is in the midst of a serious decline that looks to be age related. He is not a solution vs LHPs, and he might even make us worse vs lefties.

2024 v L: .235/.266/.379/.646

2023 v L:  .220/.276/.386/.662

He's has had very low OBP and SLG vs LHPs for 2 years. Who's bat is he replacing?

Yoshida? (2023-2024 v L: .239/.318/.351/.669)

I hope it's not Refsnyder.

Is the improved defense at 3B worth making us even worse vs LHPs? Maybe, by a tiny bit, but why pay anything for this, while also giving up any decent prospect. If it's Fitts and not Jordan, I'll be doubly pissed.

I'm not even sure I want Arenado at R$10M x 3 for no prospect or player, other than Yoshida plus cash.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure why so many posters want Arenado, and I'm a huge fan of defense. The guy is in the midst of a serious decline that looks to be age related. He is not a solution vs LHPs, and he might even make us worse vs lefties.

2024 v L: .235/.266/.379/.646

2023 v L:  .220/.276/.386/.662

He's has had very low OBP and SLG vs LHPs for 2 years. Who's bat is he replacing?

Yoshida? (2023-2024 v L: .239/.318/.351/.669)

I hope it's not Refsnyder.

Is the improved defense at 3B worth making us even worse vs LHPs? Maybe, by a tiny bit, but why pay anything for this, while also giving up any decent prospect. If it's Fitts and not Jordan, I'll be doubly pissed.

I'm not even sure I want Arenado at R$10M x 3 for no prospect or player, other than Yoshida plus cash.

I hate the idea of giving up Fitts for Arenado. And I don’t even think Fitts is some elite prospect, but I do think Slaten, Whitlock, Fitts and Guerrero has the potential to be an elite middle relief core.  But I know that including Fitts might be the difference in changing Arenado from a $50mill waste of money into a $45mill waste of money…

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure why so many posters want Arenado, and I'm a huge fan of defense. The guy is in the midst of a serious decline that looks to be age related. He is not a solution vs LHPs, and he might even make us worse vs lefties.

2024 v L: .235/.266/.379/.646

2023 v L:  .220/.276/.386/.662

He's has had very low OBP and SLG vs LHPs for 2 years. Who's bat is he replacing?

Yoshida? (2023-2024 v L: .239/.318/.351/.669)

I hope it's not Refsnyder.

Is the improved defense at 3B worth making us even worse vs LHPs? Maybe, by a tiny bit, but why pay anything for this, while also giving up any decent prospect. If it's Fitts and not Jordan, I'll be doubly pissed.

I'm not even sure I want Arenado at R$10M x 3 for no prospect or player, other than Yoshida plus cash.

Yes, it would most likely be Yoshida that's gone.  It most certainly wouldn't be Refsnyder.  

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, it would most likely be Yoshida that's gone.  And it most certainly wouldn't be Refsnyder.  

Not sure why Sox fans want Yoshida gone.

If the Sox are supposed to be worried about the recent injuries to Devers and Casas, why should they trade away the bat behind them in line?  Do people want a clear path to a 1b/DH role for Romy Gonzalez?

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Not sure why Sox fans want Yoshida gone.

If the Sox are supposed to be worried about the recent injuries to Devers and Casas, why should they trade away the bat behind them in line?  Do people want a clear path to a 1b/DH role for Romy Gonzalez?

No, I think for most of us the idea is Devers and Casas in the 1B/DH roles. 

[Larry Cook]

Bergman wants too many years 

arenado cannot hit left handed pitching, but offers a defensive upgrade!!!

I think it is fair for bres-slow to stand his ground. 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Bergman wants too many years 

arenado cannot hit left handed pitching, but offers a defensive upgrade!!!

I think it is fair for bres-slow to stand his ground. 

Sure, but if he comes away empty-handed in the RH bat department, it's not a job well done.  It's just more of the same fiddling around and not doing enough to upgrade the team.

 

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, I think for most of us the idea is Devers and Casas in the 1B/DH roles. 

Yes.  But there has been plenty of speculation about Devers’ shoulders.  Are they healed? Or will Casas re-injure himself by performing another mundane baseball activity?  Last year it was swinging.  This year maybe he injures himself while spitting sunflower seeds.

If one goes down, the other takes over 1b.  But who DHs? 

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Yes.  But there has been plenty of speculation about Devers’ shoulders.  Are they healed? Or will Casas re-injure himself by performing another mundane baseball activity?  Last year it was swinging.  This year maybe he injures himself while spitting sunflower seeds.

If one goes down, the other takes over 1b.  But who DHs? 

If they could keep Yoshida around as an insurance policy that would probably be fine.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If they could keep Yoshida around as an insurance policy that would probably be fine.

As it has been pointed out multiple times (all of them by me), he does have all his options…

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, notin said:

As it has been pointed out multiple times (all of them by me), he does have all his options…

I will admit to only looking at the broad strokes here. 

The truth is I'll be surprised if the Sox do much of anything at this point.  I do have the feeling they're going to do something for a RH bat and another reliever, but I don't expect anything exciting.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I hate the idea of giving up Fitts for Arenado. And I don’t even think Fitts is some elite prospect, but I do think Slaten, Whitlock, Fitts and Guerrero has the potential to be an elite middle relief core.  But I know that including Fitts might be the difference in changing Arenado from a $50mill waste of money into a $45mill waste of money…

You think arenado is worth  $45M/3 or $15M x 3? Plus Fitts?

I don't see it.

.680 glove first 3Bmen should be near min wage cost.

Or, dom you think Arenado will have some sort of resurrgence?

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I hate the idea of giving up Fitts for Arenado. And I don’t even think Fitts is some elite prospect, but I do think Slaten, Whitlock, Fitts and Guerrero has the potential to be an elite middle relief core.  But I know that including Fitts might be the difference in changing Arenado from a $50mill waste of money into a $45mill waste of money…

Does BTV have Fitts worth just $5M?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, it would most likely be Yoshida that's gone.  It most certainly wouldn't be Refsnyder.  

So, we actually get worse vs LHPs by swapping out Yoshida's slot in the line-up for  Arenado- just for a gain on 3B D, and all for $15M x 3.

What am I missing, here?

[moonslav59]

Arenado is not an upgrade vs LHPs.

2023-2024 OPS v LHPs:

.886 Refsnyder (290 PAs)

.879 Romy (130)

.794 Casas (158) Some want to trade him, if we get Arenado or Bregman.

.749 Devers (412)

.721 Wong (260)

.704 Bregman (397) Not much better than Yoshida v L

.680 Duran (279)

.669 Yoshida (better than Arenado & Bregman vs RHPs)

.654 Arenado (299)

.619 Grissom (24)

.610 Rafaela (179)

.573 Story (58)

.539 DHam (53) Should not start vs LHPs

.514 Abreu (77) Should not start vs LHPs

[notin]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Does BTV have Fitts worth just $5M?

$4.5mill

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

$4.5mill

I'm not super high on Fitts, but with the state of our pitching farm history, I think I'd rather pay $5M more and keep Fitts. 

Give them Castro or Jordan. Throw in Gambrell, but again, not if we have to pay more than $10M x 3. They should give us a prospect at $15M x 3.

Can you explain to me, why Arendao is worth giving a prospect for at $15M x 3?

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not super high on Fitts, but with the state of our pitching farm history, I think I'd rather pay $5M more and keep Fitts. 

Give them Castro or Jordan. Throw in Gambrell, but again, not if we have to pay more than $10M x 3. They should give us a prospect at $15M x 3.

Can you explain to me, why Arendao is worth giving a prospect for at $15M x 3?

He’s still a 2 fWAR player despite the declining offense.  That makes him worth $16mill per year..

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Can you explain to me, why Arendao is worth giving a prospect for at $15M x 3?

I tell ya, it's not about his WAR -- it's about preventing a War. 

I don't care how much Devers makes, he won't be able to say a word if the Red Sox finally replace the worst fielding third baseman of his day with only the best fielding third baseman of this generation. 

Raffy's career dWAR is -3.6; Arenado's career dWAR is 20.1. 

This trade would finally signal legitimate change in Boston's entire defensive structure. Once it's done -- if Arenado's bat is truly that washed -- it will be time for the transition to third for whatever prospect is banging down the door... but there will be no flip-flopping (literally) back to Devers.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

He’s still a 2 fWAR player despite the declining offense.  That makes him worth $16mill per year..

No. You are assuming he does not continue his decline, as he gets even older.

He may have been worth $16M in 2024, according to fWAR, but fWAR is not a predictor of the future. (I think he was actually a 3 fWAR and like 2.5 bWAR.)

I don't think he continues to hit even at his recent rates, and his D may decline, too.

I guess, if he gives us 2.5> 2.0> 1.5 of even 2.2> 1.7> 1.2 might be worth $15M a year, but not alsso giving up Fitts, IMO.

Thanks for at least trying to explain why he has that much value.

Anyone know what BTV has his value at minus his pay hit.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You think arenado is worth  $45M/3 or $15M x 3? Plus Fitts?

I don't see it.

.680 glove first 3Bmen should be near min wage cost.

Or, dom you think Arenado will have some sort of resurrgence?

 

Arenado had a 3.1 fWAR in 2024, which worked out to a dollar value of $25.1 million.   

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I tell ya, it's not about his WAR -- it's about preventing a War. 

I don't care how much Devers makes, he won't be able to say a word if the Red Sox finally replace the worst fielding third baseman of his day with only the best fielding third baseman of this generation. 

Raffy's career dWAR is -3.6; Arenado's career dWAR is 20.1. 

This trade would finally signal legitimate change in Boston's entire defensive structure. Once it's done -- if Arenado's bat is truly that washed -- it will be time for the transition to third for whatever prospect is banging down the door... but there will be no flip-flopping (literally) back to Devers.

 

I was one of the first poster who suggested then advocated for Devers to move to 1B/DH. I still want that to happen, but at what cost? We can find a plus D 3Bman for min wage. We need something from Arenado on offense to bring his value to the plus side. We could just play Campbell at 3B, or even Rafaela or Grissom/Mayer/Story.Romy/DHam. All would be better than Devers and not cost a penny or prospect.

Signs and signals are nice, but we don't have to pay $15M x 3 for a very good defensive 3Bman.

Arenado is the RHB fix. He's been worse than Yoshida vs LHPs for 2 years. I suppose we could use Yoshida  in LF, so Arenado's bat replaces Rafaela's, as Duran moves to CF and Ref platoons with Abreu in RF, but then we send a signal that LF & RF defense is not a concern. This is the only way I see Arenado's bat adding value to the current line-up. He should hit better than Rafaela vs LHPs and RHPs.