Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Bellhorn04]

Arenado killed lefties until the last 2 seasons.  No clue what could have happened there or if it's something that could rebound. 

I guess the BAbips of .220 and .232 didn't help. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Arenado killed lefties until the last 2 seasons.  No clue what could have happened there or if it's something that could rebound. 

I guess the BAbips of .220 and .232 didn't help. 

Were those his BAbip vs LHPs?

His overall BAbip was .279 and .296, the last 2 years and is .291 career.

You seem to really value what players did, last year, or over the last half of 2024. Arenado has seen a huge decline in bat speed and hard hit ball rates for two full seasons. I think the sample size is legit.

That's not to say he is beyond a resurgence, and maybe Fenway and a change or scenery will help, but I do not expect him to improve, at his age.

Hard hit % career: 35.2% (2021>2024: 33.7>31.9>33.8>27.2)

He did have a 21.3% line drive % in '24, which is higher than his career 20.4%.

His D could even decline, slowly.

[Tedballgame]

Arenado is an aging veteran. Stay away from him.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

Arenado is an aging veteran. Stay away from him.

He’s a year younger than Sale was when the Sox traded him away…

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

He’s a year younger than Sale was when the Sox traded him away…

True, but Sale was a walking injury waiting to happen. Arenado is in a 2 year decline.

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Were those his BAbip vs LHPs?

His overall BAbip was .279 and .296, the last 2 years and is .291 career.

You seem to really value what players did, last year, or over the last half of 2024. Arenado has seen a huge decline in bat speed and hard hit ball rates for two full seasons. I think the sample size is legit.

That's not to say he is beyond a resurgence, and maybe Fenway and a change or scenery will help, but I do not expect him to improve, at his age.

Hard hit % career: 35.2% (2021>2024: 33.7>31.9>33.8>27.2)

He did have a 21.3% line drive % in '24, which is higher than his career 20.4%.

His D could even decline, slowly.

I don't really disagree.  It's just something to talk about.  Not happening anyway.

[Hitch]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Casas hits lefties pretty well. No thanks.

 

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Seeing those two sign bummed me out. I'd like to think Brez has a plan, but with these cheapies, I can't expect anything, anymore. Maybe, he's already decided that once Bregman decides, it will be him or Arenado, but neither is all that great vs LHPs, and Arenado has actually sucked vs lefties for 2 straight years.

So no to the guy that is 2nd only to Judge in HR's since 2019 with an average OPS of 854 on a short contract, but bummed to see Grichuk and Laureano go off the board?

I'm genuinely perplexed. 

[Bellhorn04]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You seem to really value what players did, last year, or over the last half of 2024.

This is a bit of a generalization.  I try to look at each situation on its own merits.  It's true that, for example, I'd rather have Kirby Yates than Liam Hendriks because of last year.  

[Bellhorn04]

Just check out some of this gibberish from Brez.  It really looks AI-generated.

“We’re still very much engaged in trying to bring in a right-handed hitter, obviously one that we think can be a difference-maker. We haven’t been able to line up yet, but the offseason is still underway. I think it’s fair to say that in some respects, maybe the roster is a bit incomplete. But we’re going to continue to work really hard to try to round it out.

“The focus has continued to be on building a roster that can compete for the division and for the postseason in 2025, and make sure that we’re balancing that with a look toward the longer term. I think the difference (in January) is that we obviously haven’t been able to get transactions across the line. But in terms of the day-to day-work and engagement and conversations, it hasn’t really been a whole lot different outside of that most important last step.”

“We’re open minded. We’ve talked about versatility, we’ve talked about opportunities to improve infield defense. We do feel like we have a very strong outfield defense but I think we’ll be open-minded. Ultimately, some of this — or a significant portion of this — is going to be driven by balancing the lineup and the damage that can be done in the right side of the batter’s box.”

“I understand the criticism. But at the same time, my job is to put the most competitive team on the field that I possibly can. I think that we are taking the meaningful steps toward doing that. Some come at the cost of dollars. Some come at the cost of really talented young players that we needed to trade away. Ultimately, I think the barometer for our success is going to be where we finish in the standings. That is absolutely the way that it should be.

“Whether or not there’s an appetite or the resources are available for the right player, the answer is yes. I have to balance the kind of urgency and immediacy that Sam spoke about with the responsibility to build a competitive team that’s capable of accomplishing what we’d like to accomplish in 2025, but also beyond.”

“There’s probably a little bit of both in reality in that we were able to make some significant transactions and bring in guys. We don’t have control over the timing of the offseason and if that Crochet trade had come together two weeks ago, then there could be a different feeling right now. But I would absolutely balance that with frustration for there being players that we’ve pursued or conversations in trades that we felt like were getting some momentum, but ultimately didn’t work out. Unfortunately, that’s the reality of an offseason.

“We’re still actively engaged in conversations around enhancing the bullpen. I think we have a number of guys who have accomplished quite a bit in relief roles ... Our hope is that over time, we can field the bullpen from homegrown pitchers. But right now, we’re not quite there yet. If the opportunity exists to to bring in someone who enhances that back end, particularly someone who can provide leverage innings, we’re definitely gonna be open to that pursuit.”

 

[Bellhorn04]

"If the opportunity exists" (to sign a back end reliever)"we're definitely gonna be open to that pursuit" is just plain annoying.  Unless players really are refusing to come to Boston, the opportunity has existed plenty. 

Of course if you tried to pin Brez down on that one, he would pivot to the "we were actively engaged with several targets but ultimately didn't line up" line.    

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

Arenado is an aging veteran. Stay away from him.

Unfortunately those non-aging veterans are so darn hard to find! 😉

[notin]

45 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"If the opportunity exists" (to sign a back end reliever)"we're definitely gonna be open to that pursuit" is just plain annoying.  Unless players really are refusing to come to Boston, the opportunity has existed plenty. 

Of course if you tried to pin Brez down on that one, he would pivot to the "we were actively engaged with several targets but ultimately didn't line up" line.    

It’s all Press Conference Speak.  Nothing new.

The only CBO who was blatant and upfront was Bloom. And he drew a lot of ire from people who held him to his words.  Or worse, their individual interpretation of his words…

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

 

So no to the guy that is 2nd only to Judge in HR's since 2019 with an average OPS of 854 on a short contract, but bummed to see Grichuk and Laureano go off the board?

I'm genuinely perplexed. 

I get it.  Grichuk and Laureano were short money low risk guys who are capable of doing the job.  If the Sox end up doing nothing, why did they pass on Grichuk and Laureano is a very legit question.

[Bellhorn04]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s all Press Conference Speak.  Nothing new.

The only CBO who was blatant and upfront was Bloom. And he drew a lot of ire from people who held him to his words.  Or worse, their individual interpretation of his words…

To me it is something new.  The last few years have seen a huge disconnect between the messaging and the execution.  

It's been a long long time since the Red Sox stayed in the mid range of team payrolls for 3 years running, and we know it has nothing to do with declining revenues.  So it's gotta be the dividend payments to FSG shareholders that are the big concern.

I think Red Sox spokesmen are now being tasked to spin their way around that ugly truth any which way they can.   

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

Why sign 30 year old free agents to 6-7 year deals when we can trade players away to pay a 34 year old for 3 years.  Good thing we don’t over pay for those 30-33 years.

 

makes total sense

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Why sign 30 year old free agents to 6-7 year deals when we can trade players away to pay a 34 year old for 3 years.  Good thing we don’t over pay for those 30-33 years.

 

makes total sense

Neither one is ideal.  What looks much more likely is that we do nothing.  No RH bat and no upgrade to the defense.  Just cross your fingers, and if it goes sideways, no biggie, just a 4th straight year out of the playoffs, we're all getting used to it.

[Hitch]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I get it.  Grichuk and Laureano were short money low risk guys who are capable of doing the job.  If the Sox end up doing nothing, why did they pass on Grichuk and Laureano is a very legit question.

I've no problem against either of them. But we've got people simultaneously angry were not spending money and then questioning a short deal to one of the best power hitting righties in the game. I don't get it personally. 

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I've no problem against either of them. But we've got people simultaneously angry were not spending money and then questioning a short deal to one of the best power hitting righties in the game. I don't get it personally. 

I can understand thinking that Alonso was not a great target.  He's a very expensive !B/DH.  We'd have to move Casas or Yoshida to make it happen.  Unlike Arenado or Bregman, he would do nothing for the problem of our infield defense.

 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

 

So no to the guy that is 2nd only to Judge in HR's since 2019 with an average OPS of 854 on a short contract, but bummed to see Grichuk and Laureano go off the board?

I'm genuinely perplexed. 

This is my main beef. If we end up doing something equal or better, in the next few weeks, fine, but I'm not holding my breath. We could have signed Grichuk or Laureano and a pen arm, while still remaining way below the tax line.

No excuses, unless we see something else.

Not much is less, unless there is a trade. (Bregman and or Robertson?)

Arenado? (Yikes!)

We have been backed into a corner, where just about the only reasonable available player left is Robertson, (other than a trade) and I seriously doubt we get him.

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I get it.  Grichuk and Laureano were short money low risk guys who are capable of doing the job.  If the Sox end up doing nothing, why did they pass on Grichuk and Laureano is a very legit question.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Neither one is ideal.  What looks much more likely is that we do nothing.  No RH bat and no upgrade to the defense.  Just cross your fingers, and if it goes sideways, no biggie, just a 4th straight year out of the playoffs, we're all getting used to it.

One area we have actually done pretty well on is these one and done OF deals: Renfroe (coulda kept longer than 1)>Duvall> O'Neill.

[dgalehouse]

I think Breslow has done well in improving the pitching. That is what we wanted and needed.  While it would be good to add some right-handed power like Alonso or Bregman, let's not get desperate about it. Somebody like Laureano is not going to improve this ballclub. It would have been better to keep O'Neill than start looking around for low priced ham and eggers. If the top prospects are as good as they are cracked up to be, I think this team is shaping up pretty well. 

[dgalehouse]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Just check out some of this gibberish from Brez.  It really looks AI-generated.

“We’re still very much engaged in trying to bring in a right-handed hitter, obviously one that we think can be a difference-maker. We haven’t been able to line up yet, but the offseason is still underway. I think it’s fair to say that in some respects, maybe the roster is a bit incomplete. But we’re going to continue to work really hard to try to round it out.

“The focus has continued to be on building a roster that can compete for the division and for the postseason in 2025, and make sure that we’re balancing that with a look toward the longer term. I think the difference (in January) is that we obviously haven’t been able to get transactions across the line. But in terms of the day-to day-work and engagement and conversations, it hasn’t really been a whole lot different outside of that most important last step.”

“We’re open minded. We’ve talked about versatility, we’ve talked about opportunities to improve infield defense. We do feel like we have a very strong outfield defense but I think we’ll be open-minded. Ultimately, some of this — or a significant portion of this — is going to be driven by balancing the lineup and the damage that can be done in the right side of the batter’s box.”

“I understand the criticism. But at the same time, my job is to put the most competitive team on the field that I possibly can. I think that we are taking the meaningful steps toward doing that. Some come at the cost of dollars. Some come at the cost of really talented young players that we needed to trade away. Ultimately, I think the barometer for our success is going to be where we finish in the standings. That is absolutely the way that it should be.

“Whether or not there’s an appetite or the resources are available for the right player, the answer is yes. I have to balance the kind of urgency and immediacy that Sam spoke about with the responsibility to build a competitive team that’s capable of accomplishing what we’d like to accomplish in 2025, but also beyond.”

“There’s probably a little bit of both in reality in that we were able to make some significant transactions and bring in guys. We don’t have control over the timing of the offseason and if that Crochet trade had come together two weeks ago, then there could be a different feeling right now. But I would absolutely balance that with frustration for there being players that we’ve pursued or conversations in trades that we felt like were getting some momentum, but ultimately didn’t work out. Unfortunately, that’s the reality of an offseason.

“We’re still actively engaged in conversations around enhancing the bullpen. I think we have a number of guys who have accomplished quite a bit in relief roles ... Our hope is that over time, we can field the bullpen from homegrown pitchers. But right now, we’re not quite there yet. If the opportunity exists to to bring in someone who enhances that back end, particularly someone who can provide leverage innings, we’re definitely gonna be open to that pursuit.”

 

He is a Yale grad, so you have to make allowances for the gibberish. I think he will do a good job, but I would definitely like to see more of the ballplayer side of him and less of the egghead. 

[notin]

The clearest path is simply move Abreu for a RHH 3b option and then move Roman Anthony to RF.  
 

No team needs an OF upgrade more than the Astros. According to Roster Resource, their starting outfielders are Jake Meyers, Chas McCormack, and Ben Gamel, which isn’t much to show for that $200mill payroll.  I expected Pitt, Tampa and KC - you know, teams that don’t spend- to have the worst OF. But nope.  Houston.

Isaac Paredes isn’t an offensive force, but he’s a good defensive 3b with  dead pull tendencies  made for Fenway…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

I think Breslow has done well in improving the pitching. That is what we wanted and needed.  While it would be good to add some right-handed power like Alonso or Bregman, let's not get desperate about it. Somebody like Laureano is not going to improve this ballclub. It would have been better to keep O'Neill than start looking around for low priced ham and eggers. If the top prospects are as good as they are cracked up to be, I think this team is shaping up pretty well. 

I doubt we'd have kept O'Neill and then spent that much on Buehler. O'Neill over Sandoval would have cost more, but maybe could have been managed. (Maybe no Chapman, too?)

[moonslav59]

I know we have beaten this issue to death, but these one and done or two year pitcher deals on guys recovering from recent injuries have not worked out well for us.

$10M Richards '21

$10M Paxton '22 (really a 2 year deal)

$10M Kluber '23

$39M/2 Giolito '24

$21M Buehler '25

$18M/2 Sandoval '25

This has basically amounted to $108M/5 (6 years, if you count Sandoval as a 2026 deal.)

I hate pulling out the hindsight card, but here are some deals similar to 108/5 or $108/6 we have seen since 2021:

$110M/5 Gausman '22

$56M/4 Jon Gray

$63M/3 Bassitt '23

$53M/4 Imanaga '24

$44M/4 Lugo '24

$75M/5 Senga '24

$75M/3 Gray '24

$75M/3 Nate '25

Of course, one could point to Robbie Ray at $115M/5 in '22.

Handpicking the best might have been to sign Gausman back in '22 at the same money we spent, of signing 2 from Bassitt, Lugo and Imanaga.

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt we'd have kept O'Neill and then spent that much on Buehler. O'Neill over Sandoval would have cost more, but maybe could have been managed. (Maybe no Chapman, too?)

I didn't necessarily want to keep O'Neill either. I don't think the need for a right-handed bat is as urgent as it's being made out to be. I think that the reason the Sox didn't make the playoffs last year was that the starting pitchers did not go deep enough into games and the bullpen blew way too many leads. I look for improvement in those areas this season.

[notin]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but Sale was a walking injury waiting to happen. Arenado is in a 2 year decline.

Not entirely sure that’s a convincing argument…

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

I didn't necessarily want to keep O'Neill either. I don't think the need for a right-handed bat is as urgent as it's being made out to be. I think that the reason the Sox didn't make the playoffs last year was that the starting pitchers did not go deep enough into games and the bullpen blew way too many leads. I look for improvement in those areas this season.

Tend to agree.  While much is made of the loss of his 1.180 OPS vs LHP, no one mentions the loss of his .693 OPS vs RHP.

I’d like a RHH bat somewhere, but a lefty-heavy lineup that’s stronger against the much larger population of RHP in MLB isn’t some sort of death nail.

The big problem with the SP was that the Sox never had a complete rotation once Giolito and Whitlock went down before April was out.  Criswell was fifth on the team with 18 starts.  Once Whitlock went down, there was enough season left for 26-28 starts out of a 5th starter.  The Sox got a little over half of that…

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I know we have beaten this issue to death, but these one and done or two year pitcher deals on guys recovering from recent injuries have not worked out well for us.

$10M Richards '21

$10M Paxton '22 (really a 2 year deal)

$10M Kluber '23

$39M/2 Giolito '24

$21M Buehler '25

$18M/2 Sandoval '25

This has basically amounted to $108M/5 (6 years, if you count Sandoval as a 2026 deal.)

I hate pulling out the hindsight card, but here are some deals similar to 108/5 or $108/6 we have seen since 2021:

$110M/5 Gausman '22

$56M/4 Jon Gray

$63M/3 Bassitt '23

$53M/4 Imanaga '24

$44M/4 Lugo '24

$75M/5 Senga '24

$75M/3 Gray '24

$75M/3 Nate '25

Of course, one could point to Robbie Ray at $115M/5 in '22.

Handpicking the best might have been to sign Gausman back in '22 at the same money we spent, of signing 2 from Bassitt, Lugo and Imanaga.

Wow, Buehler already made the list of injury busts.  I kind of get the Giolito inclusion, but bear in mind had he produced last year, he’d be gone now…

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

Wow, Buehler already made the list of injury busts.  I kind of get the Giolito inclusion, but bear in mind had he produced last year, he’d be gone now…

Didn't say bust.

While Buehler and Sandoval may "work well for us," eventually, they have yet to do so, and they were part of my claim on saying getting 1 or 2 pitchers for $108M/5 might have worked better than splitting it up among 5-6 guys.