Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[Larry Cook]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

Nick Pivetta reportedly will sign a four-year, $55 million contract (with opt outs) with the San Diego Padres:

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1889859851721043974

The Red Sox can welcome a compensatory draft pick at about No. 77.

 Very nice!!!!

[harmony]

Monster Territory podcaster Robbie Hyde and Baseball Trade Values founder John Bitzer discuss a hypothetical Red Sox trade for Nolan Arenado:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2tSP38B4wA

 

[harmony]

The Red Sox reportedly will sign Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract:

https://x.com/Chandler_Rome/status/1889878592005480904

 

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, harmony said:

Nick Pivetta reportedly will sign a four-year, $55 million contract (with opt outs) with the San Diego Padres:

https://x.com/JeffPassan/status/1889859851721043974

The Red Sox can welcome a compensatory draft pick at about No. 77.

I'm glad he got a nice payday. I liked him. He was durable and pretty consistent.

I was starting to worry about the comp pick.

Glad he's in the NL.

[sk7326]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm glad he got a nice payday. I liked him. He was durable and pretty consistent.

I was starting to worry about the comp pick.

Glad he's in the NL.

Got to an excellent pitchers park.  And as you note, 170+ average to a little above average big league innings has real value during the season. 

[Hitch]

One thing I think it's fair to say - for all the s*** the FO has taken this off season (a lot of it deserved) they deserve some credit, too. They got the best pitcher that was traded, and signed the best position player that was available (bar Soto). As well as fortifying the rotation.

Not too shabby.

I can't shake the feeling there's more to come as well. As I mentioned earlier, Casas doesn't feel safe to me yet. Grissom is all but done. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Hitch said:

One thing I think it's fair to say - for all the s*** the FO has taken this off season (a lot of it deserved) they deserve some credit, too. They got the best pitcher that was traded, and signed the best position player that was available (bar Soto). As well as fortifying the rotation.

Not too shabby.

I can't shake the feeling there's more to come as well. As I mentioned earlier, Casas doesn't feel safe to me yet. Grissom is all but done. 

Grissom just turned 24, so there is still time for him to show he belongs, but he does not have a slot reserved for him. He has to earn a place on the 26. As of now, I have him in AAA on opening day, but I have DHam as the utility guy on the 26. He is no sure bet, either. Of course, Campbell is on my 26, so there could be room for Romy or Grissom, if Campbell is held back, a while.

Adding Crochet was huge. It seems like a year ago. The other thing is what else we did to the rotation: we added Buehler, Sandoval (August?) and essentially Gio, too.

We replaced Jansen and Martin with Hendriks and Chapman (plus Wilson,) so that is not a step forward, but our pen looks deeper all the way through the AAA roster.

I'm liking how this team is shaping up. Health will be the main deciding point, IMO. The only players returning from injury that have to prove themselves are Gio and Hendriks. The rest, I feel like being healthy is all they need: Devers, Casas, Story, Buehler and Sandoval. (Okay, maybe Story has to prove he can hit, again.)

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Grissom just turned 24, so there is still time for him to show he belongs, but he does not have a slot reserved for him. He has to earn a place on the 26. As of now, I have him in AAA on opening day, but I have DHam as the utility guy on the 26. He is no sure bet, either. Of course, Campbell is on my 26, so there could be room for Romy or Grissom, if Campbell is held back, a while.

Adding Crochet was huge. It seems like a year ago. The other thing is what else we did to the rotation: we added Buehler, Sandoval (August?) and essentially Gio, too.

We replaced Jansen and Martin with Hendriks and Chapman (plus Wilson,) so that is not a step forward, but our pen looks deeper all the way through the AAA roster.

I'm liking how this team is shaping up. Health will be the main deciding point, IMO. The only players returning from injury that have to prove themselves are Gio and Hendriks. The rest, I feel like being healthy is all they need: Devers, Casas, Story, Buehler and Sandoval. (Okay, maybe Story has to prove he can hit, again.)

I can't see a place for Grissom bar injuries. He has no flexibility in his position and just lost his only one.

Hamilton to stay for sure. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

I can't see a place for Grissom bar injuries. He has no flexibility in his position and just lost his only one.

Hamilton to stay for sure. 

Well, my scenario is based on Grissom doing better than we've seen, and maybe DHam reverting back to how he was before June 2024.

I'm not expecting it, but he still has some hope. He just turned 24, and his arb 1 year is 2027.

[harmony]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, my scenario is based on Grissom doing better than we've seen, and maybe DHam reverting back to how he was before June 2024.

I'm not expecting it, but he still has some hope. He just turned 24, and his arb 1 year is 2027.

Another team might be interested in a bulked-up Vaughn Grissom as a future third baseman.

Steamer 600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects Grissom with 2.6 WAR and a 103 wRC+ in 2025:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer600&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1739418020&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

... probably getting WAR credit as a middle infielder.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

Another team might be interested in a bulked-up Vaughn Grissom as a future third baseman.

Steamer 600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects Grissom with 2.6 WAR and a 103 wRC+ in 2025:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer600&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1739418020&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

... probably getting WAR credit as a middle infielder.

Damn! Those guys are usually low-balling everyone.

[moonslav59]

How about Grissom and Yoshida to NYY for Stroman (owed $18.5M in 2025 w player option for $18M in '27, if he gets 140 IP.) Maybe pay off some of Yoshida's 2026 and 2017 years, since Stroman has just one year left.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, my scenario is based on Grissom doing better than we've seen, and maybe DHam reverting back to how he was before June 2024.

I'm not expecting it, but he still has some hope. He just turned 24, and his arb 1 year is 2027.

Easy to dismiss "everyone I want to get better, gets better" scenarios. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, harmony said:

Another team might be interested in a bulked-up Vaughn Grissom as a future third baseman.

Steamer 600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects Grissom with 2.6 WAR and a 103 wRC+ in 2025:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer600&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=&z=1739418020&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

... probably getting WAR credit as a middle infielder.

His problem in the IF is the consistency in his arm which is why some are projecting him to move off the dirt and out into the grass. 

[Larry Cook]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Grissom and Yoshida to NYY for Stroman (owed $18.5M in 2025 w player option for $18M in '27, if he gets 140 IP.) Maybe pay off some of Yoshida's 2026 and 2017 years, since Stroman has just one year left.

Why are we trying to trade our depth????

you know that at some point in 2025, we are going to need quality depth!!!! 
 

the more quality players we can stash in Worcester, the better for us if injuries hit. 

bello and Crawford are already experiencing issues in training camp. The marathon 2025 season will claim more players. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Why are we trying to trade our depth????

you know that at some point in 2025, we are going to need quality depth!!!! 
 

the more quality players we can stash in Worcester, the better for us if injuries hit. 

bello and Crawford are already experiencing issues in training camp. The marathon 2025 season will claim more players. 

Already down to a four-man rotation... hey, it worked for the Orioles in the Seventies.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Why are we trying to trade our depth????

I view Stroman as depth, or someone who might allow us to move Crawford, Bello or Gio to the pen.

Our current 2B depth chart, without Grissom:

Campbell, DHam, Romy, Rafaela (Mayer or Story)

[Randy Red Sox]

On 2/13/2025 at 12:28 PM, Hitch said:

One thing I think it's fair to say - for all the s*** the FO has taken this off season (a lot of it deserved) they deserve some credit, too. They got the best pitcher that was traded, and signed the best position player that was available (bar Soto). As well as fortifying the rotation.

Not too shabby.

I can't shake the feeling there's more to come as well. As I mentioned earlier, Casas doesn't feel safe to me yet. Grissom is all but done. 

I don't want Casas traded. I still think he is going to a stud power hitting threat.. There should be enough AB's b between 3B, 1B, and DH for all 3. Dever hits 3rd, followed by Bregman,  Casas, and Story makes for a deep line-up behind Duran leading off.  Just need to move Yoshida [thanks Bloom} somehow.

[Randy Red Sox]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I view Stroman as depth, or someone who might allow us to move Crawford, Bello or Gio to the pen.

Our current 2B depth chart, without Grissom:

Campbell, DHam, Romy, Rafaela (Mayer or Story)

we have ZERO need for Stroman .  I would rather go with Crawford.  The only need I see at this point would be a sure fire closer. I don't trust Chapman. I am feeling the best I have felt about the Sox in several years.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I don't want Casas traded. I still think he is going to a stud power hitting threat.. There should be enough AB's b between 3B, 1B, and DH for all 3. Dever hits 3rd, followed by Bregman,  Casas, and Story makes for a deep line-up behind Duran leading off.  Just need to move Yoshida [thanks Bloom} somehow.

Who bats second? That's the slot modern line-up analysis deems most important, or tied with 4th as most important. Apparently, the 3rd slot should be your 5th best batter.

Devers should bat 2nd or 4th, and since he has the most power on the team, I'd place him 4th. I might put Bregman 2nd to split up the run of lefty batters, and because he normally has an OBP over .360 (not in '24,) and I like Duran's speed up first.

1. L Duran

2. R Bregman

3.

4. Devers

5. 

I could see batting Story 3rd vs LHPs and Casas 5th, and flip them vs RHPs, but Casas has hit LHP pretty well, so I'd just slot Casas 3rd and Story 5th, every game. That could change over the season.

We could also see Campbell muscle hsi way into the top 5 batters, especially if Story struggles on O, or someone gets hurt.

Abreu might deserves a top 5 slot vs RHPs and Refsnyder vs LHPs, so maybe one of those two, or both, get slotted 3rd or 5th, at some point, or they bat 6th.

Yoshida or a Yoshida-Refsnyder platoon could bat 6th or 7th.

Our 8-9 slots will be filled by Wong/Narvaez and DHam/Romy-Grissom, if they play 2B over Bregman or more likely, Rafaela in CF or CF/RF (when Abreu sists v LHP.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we have ZERO need for Stroman .  I would rather go with Crawford.  The only need I see at this point would be a sure fire closer. I don't trust Chapman. I am feeling the best I have felt about the Sox in several years.

Stroman's value would be mostly by adding someone to the pen, maybe even Stroman, himself. 

He's better than Wilson.

[notin]

On 2/13/2025 at 4:21 PM, Hitch said:

I can't see a place for Grissom bar injuries. He has no flexibility in his position and just lost his only one.

Hamilton to stay for sure. 

Grissom starts the year in Worcester, but he had very limited time last year to show what he can do.  Atlanta clearly valued his bat, which was the tool that catapulted him through their minors in just a couple seasons.  I wouldn’t give up on him just yet…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we have ZERO need for Stroman .  I would rather go with Crawford.  The only need I see at this point would be a sure fire closer. I don't trust Chapman. I am feeling the best I have felt about the Sox in several years.

Kyle Finnegan needs a job…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Grissom starts the year in Worcester, but he had very limited time last year to show what he can do.  Atlanta clearly valued his bat, which was the tool that catapulted him through their minors in just a couple seasons.  I wouldn’t give up on him just yet…

Certainly, Grissom could win a slot on the 26 in ST'ing, especially if DHam or Romy struggle, or someone gets hurt, but I agree, as of now, he's the odd man out. (I am also assuming Campbell starts the year at AAA.)

Bregman at 2B may force DHam or Romy to AAA to start the year, too.

It seems cumbersome to carry Yoshida and Refsnyder, but there are reasons both should not be cut. (Yoshida has options.) A DH platoon seems a total waste of roster space, but that could be how we start the season. Yoshida and Ref can be viewed as our 4th and 5th OF'ers, so they do fill emergency type double roles. Duran LF, Rafaela CF and Abreu RF, even vs LHPs might be how we start 2025. Ref could play RF vs LHPs, or do a big shuffle and play him in LF at Fenway and move Duran to CF and Rafaela to RF. That gives us 5 players for DH and OF. That leaves 8 slots for 5 positions: C + 4 IF slots, and two will be catchers Wong and Narvaez, leaving 6 slots for the IF: 1B Casas, 2B Bregman, 3B Devers, SS Story and two more- my guess is DHam and Romy. We will not put Campbell or Anthony on the 26, unless they will be playing FT or near FT, so there will need to be an injury or a big decision to bench someone to get either on the 26. The obvious move would be Bregman to 3B and Campbell to 2B, but we could also see Abreu and Rafaela becoming a platoon with Anthony playing FT (maybe CF v RHPs and RF vs LHPs.)

Cora has a lot of options and flexibility, despite having 2 DH only type players on the 26.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Certainly, Grissom could win a slot on the 26 in ST'ing, especially if DHam or Romy struggle, or someone gets hurt, but I agree, as of now, he's the odd man out. (I am also assuming Campbell starts the year at AAA.)

Bregman at 2B may force DHam or Romy to AAA to start the year, too.

It seems cumbersome to carry Yoshida and Refsnyder, but there are reasons both should not be cut. (Yoshida has options.) A DH platoon seems a total waste of roster space, but that could be how we start the season. Yoshida and Ref can be viewed as our 4th and 5th OF'ers, so they do fill emergency type double roles. Duran LF, Rafaela CF and Abreu RF, even vs LHPs might be how we start 2025. Ref could play RF vs LHPs, or do a big shuffle and play him in LF at Fenway and move Duran to CF and Rafaela to RF. That gives us 5 players for DH and OF. That leaves 8 slots for 5 positions: C + 4 IF slots, and two will be catchers Wong and Narvaez, leaving 6 slots for the IF: 1B Casas, 2B Bregman, 3B Devers, SS Story and two more- my guess is DHam and Romy. We will not put Campbell or Anthony on the 26, unless they will be playing FT or near FT, so there will need to be an injury or a big decision to bench someone to get either on the 26. The obvious move would be Bregman to 3B and Campbell to 2B, but we could also see Abreu and Rafaela becoming a platoon with Anthony playing FT (maybe CF v RHPs and RF vs LHPs.)

Cora has a lot of options and flexibility, despite having 2 DH only type players on the 26.

this team may have some weaknesses, but depth isn't one of them.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

this team may have some weaknesses, but depth isn't one of them.

The depth in 2024 was pretty good, too. They sort of carried the team to a near miss.

Houck was viewed by some as our 6th starter. The loss of Gio gave him his shot. Criswell did great filling in for Whitlock.

It took a while, but by July, DHam and Romy did a fine job at 3B, as our 4th and 4th string back-ups (1 Grissom, 2 EValdez and 3 Reyes, all bit the dust.)

Rafaela at SS was not great, but he put Kike and other past back-ups to shame.

Dom Smith settled in nicely at 1B, after the failed Garrett Cooper experiment.

Slaten filled in nicely as a high leverage RP'er, once others failed in that role. Booser did okay from the pen depth, but the rest of the pen depth was largely a letdown.

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Grissom starts the year in Worcester, but he had very limited time last year to show what he can do.  Atlanta clearly valued his bat, which was the tool that catapulted him through their minors in just a couple seasons.  I wouldn’t give up on him just yet…

I like Grissom and am loathe to give up on him, but his defence at 2nd is questionable (and that's being charitable) and so I don't see a scenario in which he could move to 3rd and definitely not SS. So it leaves maybe the outfield if he can play left and Bregman is at 2nd?

He'll be the next Dalbec if he ends up stuck in AAA. 

Unless there's an injury things look bleak for him here.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I like Grissom and am loathe to give up on him, but his defence at 2nd is questionable (and that's being charitable) and so I don't see a scenario in which he could move to 3rd and definitely not SS. So it leaves maybe the outfield if he can play left and Bregman is at 2nd?

He'll be the next Dalbec if he ends up stuck in AAA. 

Unless there's an injury things look bleak for him here.

A lot depends on how he looks in ST'ing and AAA in 2025. If he looks good, his value could return, but it's good that we do not have to count on him, even to be a 26 man roster sub.

I have not given up on him, either, but if he builds back value, it might still end up being trade value.

We seem to be so deep at every position Grissom might play, except 3B, but Devers could be viewed as Bregman's back-up, if we go that road.

2B: Campbell, DHam, Romy, Story or Mayer and Rafaela at maybe #5 and with Grissom at #5 or 6.

SS: Story and Mayer, Romy, Rafaela, DHam with Grissom #6

3B: Devers & Bregman, Campbell? Romy? Grissom at #3 to #5.

OF: Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Refsnyder, Yoshida and Campbell with Grissom/Romy as #8.

[Larry Cook]

21 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

this team may have some weaknesses, but depth isn't one of them.

There is a difference between depth and quality depth 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

There is a difference between depth and quality depth 

We have better depth than almost every other team. I'm not sure what the criteria is for "quality depth," as by definition, they are not starters. Last year, Houck was views as our 6th starter and Criswell our 8th or 9th. Rafaela, Abreu and DHam were viewed as role players or "depth."

This year, we can view Crawford or Gio as our 6th starter. Both have a higher projected fWAR than any other team's 6th starter. If that is not "quality," what is? Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins are our 7-10 on the depth chart. I doubt anyone has much better than that, unless they are injured pitchers on the depth chart.

Our pen has incredible depth, but I would agree with your point, here, and ask, how much of the depth is "quality/" We also lack a true lockdown closer, but maybe Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten or Whitlock can step up a slot and do okay. While many of the pen depth chart do not look "quality," so many have some level of promise, and there are so many of them, that it's hard to imagine almost all of them having a bad year, at once:

The likely 7: (not counting our 6th starter as a pen arm) Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Wink, Weissert & Wilson.

Pen depth: Bernardino was pretty damn good from 2023 to midway into 2024. Kelly & Penrod showed signs of promise in '24. We can convert a AAA SP'er to the pen: Criswell, Fitts, Priester, Dobbins and Fulmer. I Campbell has real promise.  (Drohan and Gambrel are long shots.) The rest are fringe or just hopefuls, but some have shown clear skills: Jovani Moran, Wyatt Mills, Bryan Mata, Noah Davis, Robert Stock, Sean Newcomb, Hobie Harris, Wyatt Olds and AA pitchers like Sandlin, Cruz, Webb, Hoppe, Troye and Celluci coudl rise. We don't even need 10-15% of these fringe guys to do well.

Our depth at the everyday positions is largely speculative, when it comes to our top 3 prospects, but what team has 3 top everyday prospects as highly ranked as ours? I think you have to call them quality, of nobody can say they have it.

Our catcher depth is not "quality," but it could be decent: Narvaez, Sabol, Zavala (Jo Garcia is too far away to count.)

1B depth depends on Devers being handed a 1Bman's mitt or not. (Romy & Wong are the depth, now.) We might need another Dom Smith type, if Casas goes down.

2B is loaded with good depth. Campbell, DHam, Romy, Grissom, Rafaela and either Story or Mayer.

SS has Mayer, but then it's Romy or Rafaela. Still, that looks close to quality as you can get.

3B now has Devers w Bregman, so it has greatly improved. (Romy and Campbell might be the only other real depth at 3B.)

OF is loaded, despite losing O'Neal and not signing anyone. Projections for our OF seem very low, to me, but we had one of MLB's best hitting and defensive OFs in 2024, and most are still moving towards prime: Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Yoshida and maybe Romy, Grissom or DHam can learn to play OF. Then there are Anthony and Campbell capable of winning a FT role and doing well. That looks top quality, to me.