Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

Seems like Yanks/Sox have been less averse to making trades with each other these past few years. Sox are looking for a starter and Yanks are looking for a first baseman. A Luis Gil for Casas trade would work for both teams.

Hmmmm.

I have to admit, I don't know enough about Gil to have a strong opinion on this idea.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, bkzwhitestrican said:

Seems like Yanks/Sox have been less averse to making trades with each other these past few years. Sox are looking for a starter and Yanks are looking for a first baseman. A Luis Gil for Casas trade would work for both teams.

He's in his 2nd ARB year by now? 😎

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Hmmmm.

I have to admit, I don't know enough about Gil to have a strong opinion on this idea.

Debuted in 2021. Led the league in walks in 2024 and won the ROY somehow. 

[moonslav59]

The Cubs and Astros have been in talks on a trade that would send star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smith

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Debuted in 2021. Led the league in walks in 2024 and won the ROY somehow. 

Give me some of that advanced metric stuff!

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Give me some of that advanced metric stuff!

75th percentile extension

[Bellhorn04]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yankees trade Cortes and Durbin for closer Devin Williams.

Good trade for the Yanks, I'd say.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Good trade for the Yanks, I'd say.

Agreed.

The Cubs are about to get Tucker.

[Nick]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed.

The Cubs are about to get Tucker.

Does that mean we get Bregman? Looks like Houston received a 3B in exchange.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yankees trade Cortes and Durbin for closer Devin Williams.

The window for the Yankees to win a ring is closing. I wish them lots of luck, all of it bad.

[bkzwhitestrican]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Give me some of that advanced metric stuff!

Here's his Baseball Savant page

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/luis-gil-661563?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

And here's his percentiles. Great stuff, not great control. Expected BA against of. 208 which is 86th percentile.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Does that mean we get Bregman? Looks like Houston received a 3B in exchange.

HOU has been out of the Bregman racfor weeks. Their final offer was something like $156M.

[Nick]

I like to see us go ahead and sign Bregman. Then wait out the Mariners and get one of their young pitchers. It may take Casas plus Abreu. 

It just brings clarity into our future. Want to improve defense? Move Devers to 1B or to DH. That opens up spot in the OF for Anthony. Keep good defensive centerfielder in Rafaela.

Campbell should be our future 2B. I'd even think about adding another right handed bat with some power.

We'd still have Mayer as a backup at short for our injury prone Story.

Add another bullpen help.

Wong, Campbell, Hamilton, Mayer, Devers, Rafaela, Anthony and Duran all with at least 4 years of team control.

We're still $65M under the cap. 

[Hitch]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He just had TJS. Why would he get it right after? 

He's not saying it's imminent next week but that if we extend him there's a more than solid chance he'll have a 2nd in that time due to the violent elbow snap on his delivery.

 

No idea if he's on the money, I've barely seen him pitch. His injury record is sketchy at best though.

[Hitch]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we "wait" until he has a great year, his price will double.

The best chance to extend him is in the next few months.

He's just been traded for 2 very highly rated prospects and 2 lower ones. We've shown our hand, the league and media loves him, just what do you see him and his agent accepting as his value? 

 

I think you're dreaming if you think he's signing a long term deal through his absolute prime years at anything under 20m a year. And if he's what we expect, or even better, pay him his 30m.

 

But to extend him with such a small track record at what it will cost is very risky.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

He's just been traded for 2 very highly rated prospects and 2 lower ones. We've shown our hand, the league and media loves him, just what do you see him and his agent accepting as his value? 

 

I think you're dreaming if you think he's signing a long term deal through his absolute prime years at anything under 20m a year. And if he's what we expect, or even better, pay him his 30m.

 

But to extend him with such a small track record at what it will cost is very risky.

I never said we'd extend him at under $20M AAV.

I'm putting the odds over 50-50 that we extend him mid April- probably earlier.

We don't trade that package for 4 years. We never have.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Nick said:

I like to see us go ahead and sign Bregman. Then wait out the Mariners and get one of their young pitchers. It may take Casas plus Abreu. 

I heard the rumors of Casas to SEA are false.

I also heard they are seeking a RHB 1Bman. Maybe some sort of 3 way deal can be worked out, but if it's for a SEA pitcher, it will be Castillo- not Miller or Woo.

Time to move on to other names.

[Hitch]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I never said we'd extend him at under $20M AAV.

I'm putting the odds over 50-50 that we extend him mid April- probably earlier.

We don't trade that package for 4 years. We never have.

So he's obviously not getting double if we have to make him a deal if he's pitching well then.

I think we probably will sign him to an extension. I also think it's a big risk. 

But that comes with this and every choice.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

So he's obviously not getting double if we have to make him a deal if he's pitching well then.

I think we probably will sign him to an extension. I also think it's a big risk. 

But that comes with this and every choice.

 

One thing that might get Crochett to sign an extension would be to give him more money on the front end than his arbs would get him- maybe even a big signing bonus. Starting it now would lower the overall AAV, which might help us down the line, but if the plan is to get close to the line, this year, maybe we want to wait to sign the extension, like we did with AGon, after that trade.

[Randy Red Sox]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we "wait" until he has a great year, his price will double.

The best chance to extend him is in the next few months.

That is my point too Moon

[Randy Red Sox]

people on this board were asking for Carson Kelly -well he got 11.5 million for 2 years--FAR TOO RICH FOR JOHN HENRY.. The ONLY reason we got Crochet was the 3 million he'll get this year and probably not a huge bump in arbitration [around 6 million?} for 2026.  Then he will leave as a FA.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

He's just been traded for 2 very highly rated prospects and 2 lower ones. We've shown our hand, the league and media loves him, just what do you see him and his agent accepting as his value? 

 

I think you're dreaming if you think he's signing a long term deal through his absolute prime years at anything under 20m a year. And if he's what we expect, or even better, pay him his 30m.

 

But to extend him with such a small track record at what it will cost is very risky.

You have no need to worry. Henry won't approve a long term deal.

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, Nick said:

I like to see us go ahead and sign Bregman. Then wait out the Mariners and get one of their young pitchers. It may take Casas plus Abreu. 

It just brings clarity into our future. Want to improve defense? Move Devers to 1B or to DH. That opens up spot in the OF for Anthony. Keep good defensive centerfielder in Rafaela.

Campbell should be our future 2B. I'd even think about adding another right handed bat with some power.

We'd still have Mayer as a backup at short for our injury prone Story.

Add another bullpen help.

Wong, Campbell, Hamilton, Mayer, Devers, Rafaela, Anthony and Duran all with at least 4 years of team control.

We're still $65M under the cap. 

and we will probably stay fairly close to that

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

people on this board were asking for Carson Kelly -well he got 11.5 million for 2 years--FAR TOO RICH FOR JOHN HENRY.. The ONLY reason we got Crochet was the 3 million he'll get this year and probably not a huge bump in arbitration [around 6 million?} for 2026.  Then he will leave as a FA.

I guess this Narvaez is the real deal on defense. After listening to the soxprospects.com podcast, I'm kind of excited. He's ML ready, cheap and has many years of team control. He hit 21 HRs in 627 ABs in AAA, so maybe we get some plus on O. (.247 BA but .371 OBP, but 196 Ks in 762 PAs is a bit scary.)

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

people on this board were asking for Carson Kelly -well he got 11.5 million for 2 years--FAR TOO RICH FOR JOHN HENRY.. The ONLY reason we got Crochet was the 3 million he'll get this year and probably not a huge bump in arbitration [around 6 million?} for 2026.  Then he will leave as a FA.

yeah, Henry won't pay him. he's too f***ing cheap.

[Larry Cook]

I am so confused by the Red Sox strategy! We make plays for Soto, fried and who knows who else and then abandon the strategy and go to trading the prospects we just spent 3 years accumulating!!!  

[moonslav59]

Are we really fretting over not getting Carson Kelly?

[Larry Cook]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Are we really fretting over not getting Carson Kelly?

those are the breaks! 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

those are the breaks! 

It's silly. Carson Kelly is not a significant target.

[Larry Cook]

Is helsey a trade target???