Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[harmony]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's silly. Carson Kelly is not a significant target.

Red Sox pitchers might say the same about Connor Wong.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is helsey a trade target???

I think STL said no, but they may be rebuilding and he has 1 year left.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, harmony said:

Red Sox pitchers might say the same about Connor Wong.

I wanted Kelly, but not getting him is no big deal.

Narvaez is a good defensive catcher, and we can find someone else, easily.

Spend the money on pitching.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess this Narvaez is the real deal on defense. After listening to the soxprospects.com podcast, I'm kind of excited. He's ML ready, cheap and has many years of team control. He hit 21 HRs in 627 ABs in AAA, so maybe we get some plus on O. (.247 BA but .371 OBP, but 196 Ks in 762 PAs is a bit scary.)

Really liked this trade the minute I heard about it.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Really liked this trade the minute I heard about it.

It almost seems too good to be true.

Something like Dobbins for Narvaez might be more reasonable. 

It would be nice, if he ends up better than Kelly.

[mvp 78]

You’re not trading Dobbins for a backup, no hit catcher.

[jdc69]

They should get another bull pen arm. It's so deflating for the whole team to lose a lead.

[notin]

19 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

people on this board were asking for Carson Kelly -well he got 11.5 million for 2 years--FAR TOO RICH FOR JOHN HENRY.. The ONLY reason we got Crochet was the 3 million he'll get this year and probably not a huge bump in arbitration [around 6 million?} for 2026.  Then he will leave as a FA.

Is this really a good complaint?

"Sure we got a young high upside pitcher, but we didn't PAY ENOUGH for one!!"  

 

You spent half the off-season talking about getting cheap, young controllable pitching.  The Sox got a 25yo very high upside starter with multiple years left and an expressed desire to sign an extension.  You got EXACTLY what you wanted.  At some point, can you at least be happy about it?

Carson Kelly is definitely a step up, but he is hardly the only option.  And with Teel gone, the Sox can/should now explore catchers with multiple years of control.  Since the FA market is just stopgaps and backups, they will probably need to look elsewhere.  

One possibility might be Sean Murphy.  Atlanta has a good catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin they could turn to (although I only can speak for his offensive skillset.)  With Murphy missing most of last year and being owed $60mill over the next 4 years, I can see them moving on to Baldwin... 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You’re not trading Dobbins for a backup, no hit catcher.

No, not when they'd take El Rod for him.

You might be surprised by Narvaez, but maybe not. soxprospects says they will rank him below Jo Garcia and above Brannon, which isn't saying much- possibly top 30.

On the "no hit" aspect of his profile, I fully realize OBP does not always translate from the farm to MLB, but he did have a .371 OBP in AAA (762 PAs) and .364 at all levels. He also has 21 HRs and 33 2Bs in 762 PAs at AAA, so he may have some power. The .247 BA is not all that low for the majors, now. The big worry is the 196 Ks in 762 (27%.) It's 23% for the minors.

I'm not projecting greatness on offense, but he may be okay, for a catcher.

2024 MLB Catchers

BA .234

OBP .300

SLG .378

OPS .678

The good thing is, we can PH Wong for him, late in games, if needed.

I would like to see us add a better catcher, but if we fill the other big needs: SP, Closer, and maybe a RHB, I think we can get by with Narvaez/Wong as our catchers. (I might start Narvaez more than Wong.)

[mvp 78]

He’s ranked lower than Garcia based on overall ceiling. He is more likely to play in MLB than Garcia due to proximity and defensive capabilities. I think he just has “career 3rd catcher” written all over him. Good gig if you can get it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He’s ranked lower than Garcia based on overall ceiling. He is more likely to play in MLB than Garcia due to proximity and defensive capabilities. I think he just has “career 3rd catcher” written all over him. Good gig if you can get it.

Aren't most third catchers in Triple A?

I guess if your ceiling is the floor, then you do a lot of squatting.

[Larry Cook]

There are 2 veteran catchers who are known for their defense, but have no bat available 

[Randy Red Sox]

22 hours ago, notin said:

Is this really a good complaint?

"Sure we got a young high upside pitcher, but we didn't PAY ENOUGH for one!!"  

 

You spent half the off-season talking about getting cheap, young controllable pitching.  The Sox got a 25yo very high upside starter with multiple years left and an expressed desire to sign an extension.  You got EXACTLY what you wanted.  At some point, can you at least be happy about it?

Carson Kelly is definitely a step up, but he is hardly the only option.  And with Teel gone, the Sox can/should now explore catchers with multiple years of control.  Since the FA market is just stopgaps and backups, they will probably need to look elsewhere.  

One possibility might be Sean Murphy.  Atlanta has a good catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin they could turn to (although I only can speak for his offensive skillset.)  With Murphy missing most of last year and being owed $60mill over the next 4 years, I can see them moving on to Baldwin... 

it is a good complaint.  i have stated that I am happy we got Crochet who like you say is young top SP but not really all that controllable. I think we gave up too much for him but I guess that is the cost.  But reality is that the main reason we got him was that he only earns 3 million in 2025 while adding a FA SP like Burnes or Fried would have cost a lot more. I am upset we gave up Teel and now are very short on catching depth.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Is this really a good complaint?

"Sure we got a young high upside pitcher, but we didn't PAY ENOUGH for one!!"  

 

You spent half the off-season talking about getting cheap, young controllable pitching.  The Sox got a 25yo very high upside starter with multiple years left and an expressed desire to sign an extension.  You got EXACTLY what you wanted.  At some point, can you at least be happy about it?

Carson Kelly is definitely a step up, but he is hardly the only option.  And with Teel gone, the Sox can/should now explore catchers with multiple years of control.  Since the FA market is just stopgaps and backups, they will probably need to look elsewhere.  

One possibility might be Sean Murphy.  Atlanta has a good catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin they could turn to (although I only can speak for his offensive skillset.)  With Murphy missing most of last year and being owed $60mill over the next 4 years, I can see them moving on to Baldwin... 

Good post.

I'm not sure we'd pay that much for a Murphy. Give them what they want, but then add Yoshida $25M.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

it is a good complaint.  i have stated that I am happy we got Crochet who like you say is young top SP but not really all that controllable. I think we gave up too much for him but I guess that is the cost.  But reality is that the main reason we got him was that he only earns 3 million in 2025 while adding a FA SP like Burnes or Fried would have cost a lot more. I am upset we gave up Teel and no are very short on catching depth.

As others have said, the bigger loss may be Montgomery, but it was a fair trade.

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

As others have said, the bigger loss may be Montgomery, but it was a fair trade.

I think Montgomery is a top 25 prospect by the end of the year, but there is some swing and miss to his game! 
and although he is listed as a switch hitter, he is definitely much better from the left side and we already have a few good lefty bats in the lineup 

the defense is also above average now and can only get better!  
I suspect he will be in Chicago in two years, maybe less!!!!Chicago was right to target him! 

[notin]

16 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

it is a good complaint.  i have stated that I am happy we got Crochet who like you say is young top SP but not really all that controllable. I think we gave up too much for him but I guess that is the cost.  But reality is that the main reason we got him was that he only earns 3 million in 2025 while adding a FA SP like Burnes or Fried would have cost a lot more. I am upset we gave up Teel and no are very short on catching depth.

I think you’re too focused on Henry’s wallet and starting to believe some of the Internet Idiocy.

 

Ive seen lots of “but Fried only cost money” out there and on this board.  They seem to always forget the part about outbidding the Yankees, a team that did outbid us for Soto and wasn’t going to get beaten for Fried.

The Yankees do have better financial resources, but their farm is comparatively weak.  THIS was the way to outbid them, was with prospect talent.  We played yo our strength…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I think you’re too focused on Henry’s wallet and starting to believe some of the Internet Idiocy.

 

Ive seen lots of “but Fried only cost money” out there and on this board.  They seem to always forget the part about outbidding the Yankees, a team that did outbid us for Soto and wasn’t going to get beaten for Fried.

The Yankees do have better financial resources, but their farm is comparatively weak.  THIS was the way to outbid them, was with prospect talent.  We played yo our strength…

It's hard to know, if at some point, JH becomes that GM that simply will not be "outbid" by anyone else. Will he ever draw the line at one guy? After missing out on so many players, where we seemed to have serious interest and made serious offers, at some point, he might just have to bite the bullet and pay more than he wants to- maybe significantly more.

I hope he doesn't just settle on one of the last guys standing, and that he has genuine interest in a really good player and draws the line in the sand on a chosen player. To me, it needs to be Burnes, Bregman or Teoscar with Santander, Flaherty, Hoffman or Scott being okay "second choices." Perhaps 2 from the second tier would be "enough," but I hope we do better (like one from the first 3 and 1 from the second 4.)

A winter of Burnes, Crochet, Scott and Chapman is pretty damn good, and so would be Bregman/Teoscar, Crochet, Flaherty/Scott/Hoffman and Chapman.

I'd say this would be okay: Crochet, Santander, Hoffman & Chapman (maybe upgrade at catcher via trade.) Any worse that this would be a disappointment, to me.

 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to know, if at some point, JH becomes that GM that simply will not be "outbid" by anyone else.

Never has been, never will be.

I believe JH decided a long time ago that trying to outbid the Yanks is just a bad idea.  And now the Mets would be added to that and possibly the Dodgers as well. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Never has been, never will be.

I believe JH decided a long time ago that trying to outbid the Yanks is just a bad idea.  And now the Mets would be added to that and possibly the Dodgers as well. 

"Never has?"

How far back are you going? Chapman? Yoshida? Story? JD? Price?

"Never will be? You sound like Randy and others.

You could be right, and my expectations are still at zero, but my hopes have not been extinguished, yet. Maybe all these "close bids" are just a continuation of the "sham," but maybe not.

I'm still thinking, I'll believe it when I see it. (I think our best chance is for Teoscar or Santander and maybe Pivetta or Manaea. I doubt we get Scott, Hoffman or Estevez, let alone Burnes or Bregman.)

[Larry Cook]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Never has been, never will be.

I believe JH decided a long time ago that trying to outbid the Yanks is just a bad idea.  And now the Mets would be added to that and possibly the Dodgers as well. 

Outbidding the Mets, Yankees and dodgers is near impossible!

In addition to that, desperate Dave decimated the baseball analytics department 

I do not blame ownership for experimenting with different methods of team building!!! 

[Randy Red Sox]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He’s ranked lower than Garcia based on overall ceiling. He is more likely to play in MLB than Garcia due to proximity and defensive capabilities. I think he just has “career 3rd catcher” written all over him. Good gig if you can get it.

and Wong has 2nd C written all over him

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Outbidding the Mets, Yankees and dodgers is near impossible!

In addition to that, desperate Dave decimated the baseball analytics department 

I do not blame ownership for experimenting with different methods of team building!!! 

Are one of these three going to be in the bidding on every big FA remaining?

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

and Wong has 2nd C written all over him

We can't really pencil in Narvaez as the majority innings catcher, but he is really good on D. If we improve in other high need areas, I think we can carry a weak hitting catcher. (Narvaez did have 20 HR power and a .360 OBP on the farm, so maybe he won't be real bad on O.)

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

"Never has?"

How far back are you going? Chapman? Yoshida? Story? JD? Price?

"Never will be? You sound like Randy and others.

As my post clearly stated, I'm talking about outbidding the Yanks.  He has never done so.  Soto and Fried are merely the latest examples of tossing in the towel LOL

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As my post clearly stated, I'm talking about outbidding the Yanks.  He has never done so.  Soto and Fried are merely the latest examples of tossing in the towel LOL

Okay. That makes sense but dDo we know if these three teams were not bidding on Chapman, Yoshida, Story and JD?

We might have outbid the Yanks on Soto, but not the Mets. We might have out bid LA and NYM on Fried, if they made bids, but not NYY.

We may outbid LAD on Teoscar and still miss signing him.

I'm not sure who is bidding on Burnes, Bregman and Santander. I am as doubtful as you, we will out bid the 3 teams or maybe even another team, but I do hope JH decides that he will not be outbid on a really good player, this winter.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR has reported these teams are interested in players linked to the Sox:

Burnes: BOS, TOR, SFG

Flaherty: BOS, BAL, NYM

Buehler: BOS, NYM, NYY, CHC, DET, OAK

Castillo (trade) BOS, NYM, BAL, CHC

Cease (trade) BOS & BAL 

Bregman: BOS, PHI, TOR, DET (No LAD, NYY or NYM) Maybe we get Alex.

Teoscar: BOS, LAD, TOR (NYM were before Soto signing)

Santander: BOS, NYY, TOR 

Arenado approved a trade to 6 teams: BOS, NYM, PHI, SDP, LAD, LAA

Although there was no money bid on Crochet, the NYM and NYY were interested. I realize this is not the same as outbidding for a FA.

Now, if the NYM win on any of these guys, they will likely drop out of the race for some others, so maybe the Sox win one of those bidding contests, although one may not be able to say we "outbid Cohen." I am not sure the Yanks are going to bid heavily on some of those they were linked to, earlier.

It does look like lAD< NYM and NYY will not win every bidding war on all the players listed, above, so I do think we can win one or two of them, if JH refuses to be outbid.

[notin]

On 12/13/2024 at 7:59 PM, harmony said:

Red Sox pitchers might say the same about Connor Wong.

I’m sure they say worse.  But not to his face or when he’s in the room…

[moonslav59]

Wong still has time to improve, but he showed zero gains, last year.

[Bellhorn04]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. That makes sense but dDo we know if these three teams were not bidding on Chapman, Yoshida, Story and JD?

We might have outbid the Yanks on Soto, but not the Mets. We might have out bid LA and NYM on Fried, if they made bids, but not NYY.

Pure unfounded speculation on those names, there was no reportage.  I suppose you can guess that everyone was in on everyone.

Pretty sure we didn't outbid the Yanks on Soto.  Their final offer was reported as $760 million.  I believe the Sox dropped out at around $700 million.