Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Nick said:

Isn't QO up to $20M? Who in the hell would give an injury prone player that much money? He's not that good. At most half as much and even at that Sox won't go for it.

He may get a $25M/2 year deal somewhere, but not with BOS, who has Anthony banging on the door of a team that already has an OF of Duran-Rafaela-Abreu with Campbell able to play OF, too. (Ref may not retire.)

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, notin said:

O’Neill could get a QO. And if so, he might accept sand it’s not the worst thing…

Ugh, no.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He may get a $25M/2 year deal somewhere, but not with BOS, who has Anthony banging on the door of a team that already has an OF of Duran-Rafaela-Abreu with Campbell able to play OF, too. (Ref may not retire.)

That’s not enough to turn down a QO.

[Hugh2]

O’Neill has put up 2.7 WAR this year. Free agency pays that at about $21 million.  $20 million a year is about right in line with his worth.

but who in their right mind would sign Tyler to a long term deal paying $20 million per given his injury history? 

i dont believe anyone would.  I certainly believe at his age and history hed take less money per to get a pay day but at 25/2 why wouldnt he just take the QO and go hit the market next year? he could certainly make more than $5 million.

if you offer the QO its because you want him for one year.  given this teams apparent budget restrictions, outfield depth, and desperate need for pitching it certainly seems like a vert irresponsible move to offer him a QO. 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Are you saying he’s too young?  Because you’ve been lamenting the loss of 35yo Chris Sale all season…

hell yeah--why should we lament the Sale trade?  after all it is not like we lost the trade

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

That’s not enough to turn down a QO.

He's not getting a QO.

He's probably not getting what I said was the most he might get, this winter.

If we somehow traded Abreu and Yoshida, I might make him a FA offer, but not a QO.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Ugh, no.

You don’t like giving anyone a QO.

 

This isn’t my idea.  Jon Becker from Fangraphs thinks O’Neill gets the offer and rejects it.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-of-the-order-previewing-the-qualifying-offer-decisions/

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

hell yeah--why should we lament the Sale trade?  after all it is not like we lost the trade

Not the point and you know it…

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's not getting a QO.

He's probably not getting what I said was the most he might get, this winter.

If we somehow traded Abreu and Yoshida, I might make him a FA offer, but not a QO.

Talksox posted a timely article today about Tyler O’Neill, and concluded Boston will be making him a QO.

 

So that’s TWO bloggers who think as such.  Although it is entirely possible the Talksox article sourced and paraphrased the Fangraphs article..

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Talksox posted a timely article today about Tyler O’Neill, and concluded Boston will be making him a QO.

 

So that’s TWO bloggers who think as such.  Although it is entirely possible the Talksox article sourced and paraphrased the Fangraphs article..

The QO is apparent;y $21.6M, this winter. What a steal Brez got for a $5.8M salary!

I don't see it happening. I guess it is more likely than I think it is.

Why didn't Renfroe get a QO?

Ideally, we give him one and he turns it down, but I doubt he would.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The QO is apparent;y $21.6M, this winter. What a steal Brez got for a $5.8M salary!

I don't see it happening. I guess it is more likely than I think it is.

Why didn't Renfroe get a QO?

Ideally, we give him one and he turns it down, but I doubt he would.

Renfroe didn’t get a QO because he wasn’t eligible when he was in Boston.  He was still on his arb years. The Sox signed him after he was non-tendered by Tampa and traded him to Milwaukee when he still had one arb year left.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Renfroe didn’t get a QO because he wasn’t eligible when he was in Boston.  He was still on his arb years. The Sox signed him after he was non-tendered by Tampa and traded him to Milwaukee when he still had one arb year left.

Yes, correct, but he does highlight a huge gap. He was nontendered and the Sox traded Renfroe for less than a QO return value.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As most of the Red Sox' top prospects bat left-handed -- even if they trade one -- it's almost impossible not to have an unbalanced batting order again. 

Cora can still platoon bench-warmers in match-ups vs. southpaws, and with success still push the club towards a .500 record. But what Boston really needs is a good right-handed hitter who doesn't strike out to protect Devers, Duran and the coming core of Anthony-Mayer-Teel. 

A quick glance at the leading home run hitters in the majors shows almost all bordering on 100 strikeout seasons. There are very few righty sluggers who aren't regular whiffers.

Here are a few who may be available, along with Ks and K-rate: Vlad Jr. 89-13.8%; Bregman 80-13.6%; Yandy Diaz 90-15.3%...

Bregman will cost bucks and necessitate a major infield revamp, but the other two will only cost prospects -- which, we'd all better be honest, aren't going to be enough to get the Sox to the postseason, because: 1. it's doubtful all will become instant MLB All-Stars; and 2. NONE ARE PITCHERS.

Assuming Casas is packaged in a deal for pitching, either first basemen Vlad or Yandy are the RHH contact-hitters with pop that Boston seriously needs ASAP.

(another probably not available: LA's Marcus Betts 51 Ks, 59 WALKS).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As an alternative, I'm not opposed to just signing Bregman, moving Devers to first base, and moving Casas to another team for an arm.

Problems with that scenario:

1. Chapman's extension with San Fran probably makes Bregman more expensive -- and there's no evidence Henry will change course and spend good money, even if it adds a right-handed bat AND shores up the Defense;

2. Raffy as an experiment is no guarantee that first base D will be sufficient; and

3. Casas may be viewed as damaged goods, and not fetch anything of value in return from cautious clubs. There's got to be a reason he's been taking three strikes without swinging lately -- maybe it hurts too much to swing (maybe it always will)... now that the Sox are just about cooked, we'll see if they shut down Tris for the year.

[moonslav59]

Raffy's biggest defensive challenge is throwing, not his glove work or quickness & range. I think he'd be an average defensive SS in a short time and plus, not long afterwards. Of course, that is just speculation. I just don't see him as being as bad as Casas.

I'm not high on Bregman. He seems to have peaked in 2018-2019, and that seems like it's too long ago to expect a reversal. He's still very good, granted, but I think Casas is a better hitter. I like bringing a RHB into the line-up, so I'm not against the idea, but I do not want to spend such a big chunk of whatever our winter budget is on a non-pitcher.

Also, I have faith in Campbell- the one RHB that can be added from the farm, unless you count Meidroth. (We might try Campbell or Story at 3B, if we can fill the SS and 2B jobs, well enough.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Raffy's biggest defensive challenge is throwing, not his glove work or quickness & range. I think he'd be an average defensive SS in a short time and plus, not long afterwards. Of course, that is just speculation. I just don't see him as being as bad as Casas.

I'm not high on Bregman. He seems to have peaked in 2018-2019, and that seems like it's too long ago to expect a reversal. He's still very good, granted, but I think Casas is a better hitter. I like bringing a RHB into the line-up, so I'm not against the idea, but I do not want to spend such a big chunk of whatever our winter budget is on a non-pitcher.

Also, I have faith in Campbell- the one RHB that can be added from the farm, unless you count Meidroth. (We might try Campbell or Story at 3B, if we can fill the SS and 2B jobs, well enough.

Casas isn't a better hitter this year, and Sox fans have to legitimately worry if he'll be able to overcome his unique injury from swinging a bat.

Of course, if not, we'd be selling low -- though someone may want to take a gamble on Tris regaining his '23 status.

I like your faith in the prospects, but doubt the Red Sox will give that many a shot in '25 -- if their potential is drowned out by the mighty service-time clock that ticks loudly for mid-market clubs (or Henry imitations). 

What about leaving Story's proven MLB D at SS and trying Mayer at 3B, where he may move sooner or later? If Marcelo can stay healthy and rake, Arias may be ready to take over at short when Trevor's contract runs out.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Casas isn't a better hitter this year, and Sox fans have to legitimately worry if he'll be able to overcome his unique injury from swinging a bat.

Of course, if not, we'd be selling low -- though someone may want to take a gamble on Tris regaining his '23 status.

I like your faith in the prospects, but doubt the Red Sox will give that many a shot in '25 -- if their potential is drowned out by the mighty service-time clock that ticks loudly for mid-market clubs (or Henry imitations). 

What about leaving Story's proven MLB D at SS and trying Mayer at 3B, where he may move sooner or later? If Marcelo can stay healthy and rake, Arias may be ready to take over at short when Trevor's contract runs out.

I've suggested Mayer at 3B, several times... also, 2B.

I think we delay the clock on a few of our prospects, and since none are Rule 5, we may wait a year on 1 or 2 of the big 4 plus Meidroth.

To me, Anthony is ready. If the date is late April to get him another year, we may (should) wait until then. I think we should plan on one from Mayer or Campbell to be on the 26 (and 40) by May. If we don't, I'll understand why.

I also doubt we trade any, but I think we should.

[mvp 78]

21 hours ago, notin said:

You don’t like giving anyone a QO.

 

This isn’t my idea.  Jon Becker from Fangraphs thinks O’Neill gets the offer and rejects it.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-of-the-order-previewing-the-qualifying-offer-decisions/

 

 

I think he’d take it and it’s an overpay.

[Larry Cook]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think he’d take it and it’s an overpay.

If the Sox think they can move yoshida, who is on fire now, this offseason, then offering O’Neil a QO is a no brainer. 
we move cassas, abreau yoshida and Crawford for Bryce miller!!  

[harmony]

10 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If the Sox think they can move yoshida, who is on fire now, this offseason, then offering O’Neil a QO is a no brainer. 
we move cassas, abreau yoshida and Crawford for Bryce miller!!  

The Mariners are unlikely to have interest in the three years remaining on Masataka Yoshida’s contract (even if the Red Sox took back the single seasons left on the contracts of Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver).

[Tedballgame]

Nick Yorke is making his major league debut with the Pirates. Good for him.

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

The Mariners are unlikely to have interest in the three years remaining on Masataka Yoshida’s contract (even if the Red Sox took back the single seasons left on the contracts of Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver).

What if the Sox took back 3 years of Cantillo?

BTV lowered his value to -28.4.  That means over the next 3 seasons, his median projection is a total of about 5.5 fWAR.  Yoshida’s BTV value is -21.3, meaning over the next 3 years, his median projection is about 4.5 fWAR.  So it’s close but the Mariners save about $18mill on Castillo alone and $31mill if the throw in Garver.

Are you saying the Mariners are not interested in saving $31million with minimal loss of performance - about 1 fWAR.  If one fWAR costs $8mill and you can sell one for $31mill, shouldn’t you at least be interested?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

If the Sox think they can move yoshida, who is on fire now, this offseason, then offering O’Neil a QO is a no brainer. 
we move cassas, abreau yoshida and Crawford for Bryce miller!!  

$21M+ for O'Neill is a "No Brainer," even if we move Yoshida?

Certainly, there is room for thought on this.

My guess is someone can sign O'Neill for $25-30M/2 or $39-42M/3.

If we end up paying just $6M a year on Yoshida and O'Neill takes the QO, we'd be paying $28M for our DH, and for a guy who is hurt a lot.

I'm thinking long and hard on offering O'Neill a $15M deal as a FA or a $25M/2 extension, right now.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, notin said:

What if the Sox took back 3 years of Cantillo?

BTV lowered his value to -28.4.  That means over the next 3 seasons, his median projection is a total of about 5.5 fWAR.  Yoshida’s BTV value is -21.3, meaning over the next 3 years, his median projection is about 4.5 fWAR.  So it’s close but the Mariners save about $18mill on Castillo alone and $31mill if the throw in Garver.

Are you saying the Mariners are not interested in saving $31million with minimal loss of performance - about 1 fWAR.  If one fWAR costs $8mill and you can sell one for $31mill, shouldn’t you at least be interested?

As others on this forum have noted, Baseball Trade Values likely undervalues Luis Castillo.

The comparison is three years of a 31-year-old established starting pitcher and three years of a 31-year-old position player who should be limited to designated hitter duties.

So far this year Luis Castillo has posted 2.4 fWAR after posting 3.3 fWAR last year. So far this year Masataka Yoshida has posted 1.0 fWAR after posting 0.6 fWAR last year.

Before this season the ZiPS three-year projections had Castillo with 3.9, 3.4 and 2.9 WAR and Yoshida with 2.1,, 1.7 and 1.3.

Bloated contract aside, Seattle would probable prefer to fill the DH slot with Mitch Garver, with a career OPS+ of 116, including 111 over the past two seasons, over Yoshida, with an OPS+ of 113 over his two MLB seasons. After his horrendous start this year Garver has shown signs of life in limited September action.

[Bellhorn04]

If you're trying to move Yoshida, you have to call the dysfunctional teams first.  Hello Angels!

[moonslav59]

I doubt SEA wants Yoshi, unless they can dump Garver and/or Haniger, and they still might want some cash for 2026 and 2027. We don't know how they value Castillo, but most people view his type of contract as front end for value and back end for sunken costs, so maybe they would be interested in some sort of deal involving Yoshi and Castillo plus  Garver and/or Haniger. Of course, what else we add would be the clincher.

Maybe they like Abreu taking Haniger's place, Yoshi taking Garver's place and some cash saving to pay for a pitcher.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt SEA wants Yoshi, unless they can dump Garver and/or Haniger, and they still might want some cash for 2026 and 2027. We don't know how they value Castillo, but most people view his type of contract as front end for value and back end for sunken costs, so maybe they would be interested in some sort of deal involving Yoshi and Castillo plus  Garver and/or Haniger. Of course, what else we add would be the clincher.

Maybe they like Abreu taking Haniger's place, Yoshi taking Garver's place and some cash saving to pay for a pitcher.

The backend of Castillo’s contract is only 2026/20/7.   Maybe 2028 if his option vests.

I absolutely consider him a potential target for Boston, and I think Seattle will be willing to move him.   But Yoshida won’t be part of that deal.  Abreu maybe, but not Yoshida.

We have heard Seattle doesn’t need OF help, but I have my doubts.  Their starting RF as of today figures to be Victor Robles, whom they recently extended.  But if your problem is weak offense, Victor Robles is not part of the solution, recent hot streaks notwithstanding.  This is a guy who was released by the Nationals, and they didn’t do so because his offense was so good they felt a need to share it with the world..…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If you're trying to move Yoshida, you have to call the dysfunctional teams first.  Hello Angels!

Yoshida for Rendon?? Sox get a RHH 3b and move Devers and Casas to 1b/DH roles.  What could go wrong?  He only has $76mill left on that deal for two more years!!

[harmony]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt SEA wants Yoshi, unless they can dump Garver and/or Haniger, and they still might want some cash for 2026 and 2027. We don't know how they value Castillo, but most people view his type of contract as front end for value and back end for sunken costs, so maybe they would be interested in some sort of deal involving Yoshi and Castillo plus  Garver and/or Haniger. Of course, what else we add would be the clincher.

Maybe they like Abreu taking Haniger's place, Yoshi taking Garver's place and some cash saving to pay for a pitcher.

Next year Seattle may return an outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley.

As Mitch Haniger has been a starting outfielder in only five of Seattle's last 29 games, the Mariners are unlikely to be counting on Haniger next season. The M's might even attach a prospect or two (and cash) to move Haniger in a trade.

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

The backend of Castillo’s contract is only 2026/20/7.   Maybe 2028 if his option vests.

I absolutely consider him a potential target for Boston, and I think Seattle will be willing to move him.   But Yoshida won’t be part of that deal.  Abreu maybe, but not Yoshida.

We have heard Seattle doesn’t need OF help, but I have my doubts.  Their starting RF as of today figures to be Victor Robles, whom they recently extended.  But if your problem is weak offense, Victor Robles is not part of the solution, recent hot streaks notwithstanding.  This is a guy who was released by the Nationals, and they didn’t do so because his offense was so good they felt a need to share it with the world..…

I seriously doubt they want Yoshi. Maybe nobody wants him, even if we pay all but $6-9M a year for them to take him.

I'm not so certain they feel they like Haniger over Abreu, but we'd need to give way more than Abreu for one of their SP'ers, even if we take Garver and Haniger off their budget.

I would not give Casas & Abreu for Castillo, Garver and Haniger, as the money makes it all but impossible JH would approve, and the values just don't match, anyway.

Maybe Casas, Abreu and Wink for Garver OR Haniger plus a cheaper SEA pitcher could work.