Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[notin]

26 minutes ago, Jasonbay44 said:

Yoshida can definitely hit, the problem is he is slow, can’t field and doesn’t have a ton of power, so he’s a bit limited as a player and I’m not sure how many teams are in need of a pure DH

It’s actually the least likely trade I’ve ever made that works on BTV with no money added.

I know Luis Castillo is owed a lot of money, but I think that site undervalues him a bit.  I think he still has positive trade value…

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Seattle might be willing to take a low-cost flyer on Vaughn Grissom the way the Mariners took a flyer on Luis Urias, whom the Red Sox virtually gave away last offseason.

Of course, Urias can be distinguished from Grissom because Urias was a non-tender candidate. What kind of return could the Red Sox get in a trade of Grissom?

Over the past two seasons Luis Castillo and Mitch Garver have combined for 7.4 fWAR while Masataka Yoshida and Vaughn Grissom have combined for 0.1 fWAR.

Yes let’s use the two year sample so we get those higher numbers for Castillo and Garver.

Or using 2024 alone:

Yoshida: 1.6 bWAR

Castillo plus Garver:  1.6 bWAR

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I thought notin was being facetious, but maybe not. 

I will say that Yoshida has been giving glimmers of becoming a steady .800 - .825 OPS guy. 

Castillo trade - BTV silliness.  If the Sox go after Castillo, the deal isn’t likely to include Yoshida (or Story)…

The Casas/Abreu for Miller trade is intriguing.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

Incorrect, because WAR can be isolated to each position to show where improvement is needed most.  Can’t do that with W-L record.

Most areas of improvement are obvious on this team.  And will focus on pitching.  But there are other areas just in case it’s not as easy to fix the pitching as many think…

I totally agree, but there is the aspect of how much a team thinks a position can be upgraded from within the system, and there is a significant chance those choices can go wrong or horribly wrong. Even adding someone from outside the system can go horribly wrong, as in Grissom's 2024 value.

If you go by team positional fWAR :

Catcher 20th: with Teel in the system, I doubt we go big, here. We may look for a decent 1 year deal- maybe even Jansen on a 1-2 year deal.

1B 22nd: but with a healthy Casas, I think they see 1B as a net plus, despite the poor D. Maybe near top 10 with a potential for top 6-7 in MLB.

2B 30th: has been a major thorn in our side since 2018, but with Story returning and Mayer & Campbell ML ready in 2025, plus decent play by DHam and Romy and Grissom lurking around, we will not add, here.

SS 19th: thanks to Rafaela playing "out of position." I see SS like 2B. We will not add a SS. In fact we may trade Mayer or DHam.

3B 13th: we are not trading Devers or adding a 3Bman. The Devers move to 1B is likely a longshot idea for 2025, anyway. We stand pat, here and hope Devers has a decent year on D, like he has a couple seasons.

OF 2nd to NYY: I'm lumping them together, in part to say no outside additions will be made, and with Anthony looking ML ready and Rafaela's likely return to FT CF, we should be top 2, again, here.

DH13th: should be about the same in 2025, unless we find a taker for Yoshida. We will not add, here, and if we do trade Yoshida, an Abreu-Ref platoon could easily be a major improvement, here with Anthony in RF.

To me, the next to positions scream for outside the system additions:

Pitching 13th but has fallen off a cliff and is 0.5 WAR from being below average.

SP12th: at 10.8, which is just 0.8 from 16th. Losing Pivetta will not help. His 1.7 fWAR ranks second on the Sox in SP WAR. I'm also not sure we can count on Crawford repeating 1.7, Houck repeating 3.7 and Criswell repeating 1.1. IMO, only Bello rates to repeat or improve on his 2024 fWAR 0f 1.6. Houck might be the other.

RP 18th: but in reality is worse, and with the losses of Jansen (1.4) and Martin (0.8), it looks bottom 5-6, IMO. Jansen and Martin are #1 and #3 in RP WAR, this year. When you see Booser is #4, Weissert is #4 and Bernardino is #5, you know this is a high need area. Inside fixes might be Whitlock, Hendriks, Fulmer and a full season from Slaten, but that does not come close to improving our ranking.

To me, we need:

SP1

Closer

Set-Up

SP3 or RP 4 or 5.

I doubt JH & Co see it this way. They likely think we need a SP3 and a couple decent set-up men.

[Larry Cook]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If they seem him in that light, then maybe a deal can be made. I'm not sure how much appeal Yoshi has to the fanbase, or specifically the Asian fan base, but maybe some.

we have a ton room in the budget we can pay for a lot of yoshida. We have done it in the past 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

we have a ton room in the budget we can pay for a lot of yoshida. We have done it in the past 

It's a big assumption to count on JH seeing it as a "ton of room."

You and I agree there should be a ton of room, but I've thought that for several years, now, and it never turns out that way. Our biggest spending winters were offset by our biggest contracts lost: Betts 1/2 Price and Porcello in 2020.  We added a lot of contracts in 2022, but lost Pedey & JBJ. The winter before 2023 was a joke. We lost JD and Nate plus Kike, Wacha, Hill & Strahm. This past summer saw a net drop in payroll, despite adding Gio & O'Neill.

[Jasonbay44]

2 hours ago, notin said:

It’s actually the least likely trade I’ve ever made that works on BTV with no money added.

I know Luis Castillo is owed a lot of money, but I think that site undervalues him a bit.  I think he still has positive trade value…

I like Castillo and would absolutely take him in Boston. I think he’s a bit underrated as well

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's a big assumption to count on JH seeing it as a "ton of room."

You and I agree there should be a ton of room, but I've thought that for several years, now, and it never turns out that way. Our biggest spending winters were offset by our biggest contracts lost: Betts 1/2 Price and Porcello in 2020.  We added a lot of contracts in 2022, but lost Pedey & JBJ. The winter before 2023 was a joke. We lost JD and Nate plus Kike, Wacha, Hill & Strahm. This past summer saw a net drop in payroll, despite adding Gio & O'Neill.

This offseason should give us some clear insight into the budget that has been set! 
Hang’em Chaim had 3 jobs

1.) build up the farm. 
2.) get under budget

3.) stay competitive 

seems like bres-slow has accomplished this better than hang’em Chaim did. 
 

pitching is the issue and this is the perfect offseason to add more of it 

 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, notin said:

It’s actually the least likely trade I’ve ever made that works on BTV with no money added.

I know Luis Castillo is owed a lot of money, but I think that site undervalues him a bit.  I think he still has positive trade value…

Think of it this way, would you be happy, if the Sox signed a FA Castillo for $21.6M x 3 years?

I know I would be. He does turn 32 and may have been showing signs of decline, but he still worth it, IMO.

If I were the GM of SEA and had to trade a pitcher to improve the offense, I'd keep the other 4 and trade Castillo for offense. Then, take the money saved to add another bat via free agency. Taking back salary kind of defeats that aspect of the idea, but if you can get two bats for him, then it may be worth it.

[Larry Cook]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Think of it this way, would you be happy, if the Sox signed a FA Castillo for $21.6M x 3 years?

I know I would be. He does turn 32 and may have been showing signs of decline, but he still worth it, IMO.

If I were the GM of SEA and had to trade a pitcher to improve the offense, I'd keep the other 4 and trade Castillo for offense. Then, take the money saved to add another bat via free agency. Taking back salary kind of defeats that aspect of the idea, but if you can get two bats for him, then it may be worth it.

You have to give something to get something 

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

You have to give something to get something 

Indeed. 

If we find out SEA has no interest in Yoshi, even with cash, then work on something else to pry a pitcher from them.

Abreu and Grissom/DHam will not be nearly enough. It would likely take Casas or a top 4 prospect as the centerpiece. I'm willing to do that, if need be.

I'm thinking Yoshi is not desired, even at a low cost, so Casas might be our best  option. harmony does not think they'd want Mayer, and Anthony or Campbell fill needs we have. SEA has a great catcher, so I doubt Teel is a big want.

Casas and Abreu for Miller might work.

Casas, Abreu and Yoshi for Miller, Haniger and Garver might work.

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally get your disgust for JH, but he just signed off on a $38M deal for Giolito, and the deal was giving SEA the 2Bman they need, not BOS. BOS gives up Grissom, and we still have our 2Bman. We dump Yoshi and add Castillo for a net cost of $30M over 3 years, or just $10M AAV per season.

castillo is a good P but he is not really in our window age wise

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Think of it this way, would you be happy, if the Sox signed a FA Castillo for $21.6M x 3 years?

I know I would be. He does turn 32 and may have been showing signs of decline, but he still worth it, IMO.

If I were the GM of SEA and had to trade a pitcher to improve the offense, I'd keep the other 4 and trade Castillo for offense. Then, take the money saved to add another bat via free agency. Taking back salary kind of defeats that aspect of the idea, but if you can get two bats for him, then it may be worth it.

Castillo is certainly the SP the Mariners are most likely to deal

[Larry Cook]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Indeed. 

If we find out SEA has no interest in Yoshi, even with cash, then work on something else to pry a pitcher from them.

Abreu and Grissom/DHam will not be nearly enough. It would likely take Casas or a top 4 prospect as the centerpiece. I'm willing to do that, if need be.

I'm thinking Yoshi is not desired, even at a low cost, so Casas might be our best  option. harmony does not think they'd want Mayer, and Anthony or Campbell fill needs we have. SEA has a great catcher, so I doubt Teel is a big want.

Casas and Abreu for Miller might work.

Casas, Abreu and Yoshi for Miller, Haniger and Garver might work.

I do not think Castillo fits our desired target for a pitcher. 
but the Seattle GM loves to make deals. Both teams can improve their teams by trading from strength 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I do not think Castillo fits our desired target for a pitcher. 
but the Seattle GM loves to make deals. Both teams can improve their teams by trading from strength 

It's hard to know, if the SEA GM covets any of our bats we can afford to part with. If they insist on Anthony or Campbell, we may have to cave in.

They may not even like Casas or Abreu. They may not want Yoshi at $3M a year. It's just hard to know.

If JH wasn't such a miser, we could take on salary dumps like Haniger and or Garver, not because we want or need them, but just to lessen the return value demanded by SEA. Both are also RHBs and offer some hope of a bounce back season in '25. (Garver could serves as a 3rd string catcher, too.)

Who knows, maybe they really want someone like DHam or Rafaela, but I doubt it.

We have a lot to offer, and they have 5 really good SP'ers. Seems like a fit, to me.

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, notin said:

Incorrect, because WAR can be isolated to each position to show where improvement is needed most.  Can’t do that with W-L record.

Most areas of improvement are obvious on this team.  And will focus on pitching.  But there are other areas just in case it’s not as easy to fix the pitching as many think…

At the end of the day, saying we need to add wins is not wrong.  It's just not detailed enough for us analytical types. 

[moonslav59]

We know where we need help.

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

At the end of the day, saying we need to add wins is not wrong.  It's just not detailed enough for us analytical types. 

That doesn’t mean it’s the same as saying we need more WAR.

 

If a company wanted to increase revenue, and the plan was “sell more stuff”, that’s the same level of analysis W-L record brings.

 

But if he at least says “sell more stuff in the Asia-PAC region”, he’s now started the beginning stages of his analytical plan.  And that is what WAR can do that W-L can’t…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We know where we need help.

Ok, where? 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Ok, where? 

Tell me you or anyone disagrees:

(Maybe not in this order)

1. Pitching

2. Pitching

3. Pitching

4. Catcher and corner IF defense

5. RHB

[moonslav59]

I know Tyler O'Neill is not under team control for 2025, but we do need to think about how we replace the best RHB on the team- a team that really struggles vs LHPs.

As of now, he is tied with Devers for the Sox  lead in OPS at .891. He leads the team in HRs (31 to 28 over Devers.) Much has been said about his unusual RBI total of 61, but can we get by without adding another RH'd bat from outside the system?

On top of this, Refsnyer, a top 30 OPS vs LHPs batter in MLB over the last 2-3 years is saying he may retire. Maybe Campbell of the return of Story can make up for O'Neill's loss. Maybe the LHB, Anthony, can do well enough v LHPs to help us forget about O'Neill's loss.

Let's see,,,

[Randy Red Sox]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I know Tyler O'Neill is not under team control for 2025, but we do need to think about how we replace the best RHB on the team- a team that really struggles vs LHPs.

As of now, he is tied with Devers for the Sox  lead in OPS at .891. He leads the team in HRs (31 to 28 over Devers.) Much has been said about his unusual RBI total of 61, but can we get by without adding another RH'd bat from outside the system?

On top of this, Refsnyer, a top 30 OPS vs LHPs batter in MLB over the last 2-3 years is saying he may retire. Maybe Campbell of the return of Story can make up for O'Neill's loss. Maybe the LHB, Anthony, can do well enough v LHPs to help us forget about O'Neill's loss.

Let's see,,,

everyone knows i don't like Tyler O'neill but i have to credit him as he has had a great year

[moonslav59]

We have done very well in this one area: 1 year stints by an OF'er:

2024: O'Neill .254  31  61 (.888)

2023: Duvall .247  21 58 (.834) in just 353 PAs

(Off year in 2022.)

2021: Renfroe .259 31 96 (.816)

2020: Pillar (traded after 126 PAs) .274 4 13 (.795)

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

everyone knows i don't like Tyler O'neill but i have to credit him as he has had a great year

He's been a beast, despite the lower than expected rbi total.

He's had some big hits and come up short quite a bit, too.

We will need to find a way to bet lefties, next year w/o him.

[notin]

19 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Castillo is certainly the SP the Mariners are most likely to deal

Are you saying he’s too young?  Because you’ve been lamenting the loss of 35yo Chris Sale all season…

[notin]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's been a beast, despite the lower than expected rbi total.

He's had some big hits and come up short quite a bit, too.

We will need to find a way to bet lefties, next year w/o him.

O’Neill could get a QO. And if so, he might accept sand it’s not the worst thing…

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Tell me you or anyone disagrees:

(Maybe not in this order)

1. Pitching

2. Pitching

3. Pitching

4. Catcher and corner IF defense

5. RHB

1. SP.  Prefer an arm for the top of the rotation.

2. LHRP.  Thinking Tanner Scott or equivalent.

3. RHB

4. RP

5.  Voids filled from trades trying to fill 1 through 4.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

O’Neill could get a QO. And if so, he might accept sand it’s not the worst thing…

I seriously doubt he gets a QO. He won't even get a $15M/1 or $27M/2 offer from anyone.

[Nick]

On 9/14/2024 at 5:45 PM, moonslav59 said:

I totally agree, but there is the aspect of how much a team thinks a position can be upgraded from within the system, and there is a significant chance those choices can go wrong or horribly wrong. Even adding someone from outside the system can go horribly wrong, as in Grissom's 2024 value.

If you go by team positional fWAR :

Catcher 20th: with Teel in the system, I doubt we go big, here. We may look for a decent 1 year deal- maybe even Jansen on a 1-2 year deal.

1B 22nd: but with a healthy Casas, I think they see 1B as a net plus, despite the poor D. Maybe near top 10 with a potential for top 6-7 in MLB.

2B 30th: has been a major thorn in our side since 2018, but with Story returning and Mayer & Campbell ML ready in 2025, plus decent play by DHam and Romy and Grissom lurking around, we will not add, here.

SS 19th: thanks to Rafaela playing "out of position." I see SS like 2B. We will not add a SS. In fact we may trade Mayer or DHam.

3B 13th: we are not trading Devers or adding a 3Bman. The Devers move to 1B is likely a longshot idea for 2025, anyway. We stand pat, here and hope Devers has a decent year on D, like he has a couple seasons.

OF 2nd to NYY: I'm lumping them together, in part to say no outside additions will be made, and with Anthony looking ML ready and Rafaela's likely return to FT CF, we should be top 2, again, here.

DH13th: should be about the same in 2025, unless we find a taker for Yoshida. We will not add, here, and if we do trade Yoshida, an Abreu-Ref platoon could easily be a major improvement, here with Anthony in RF.

To me, the next to positions scream for outside the system additions:

Pitching 13th but has fallen off a cliff and is 0.5 WAR from being below average.

SP12th: at 10.8, which is just 0.8 from 16th. Losing Pivetta will not help. His 1.7 fWAR ranks second on the Sox in SP WAR. I'm also not sure we can count on Crawford repeating 1.7, Houck repeating 3.7 and Criswell repeating 1.1. IMO, only Bello rates to repeat or improve on his 2024 fWAR 0f 1.6. Houck might be the other.

RP 18th: but in reality is worse, and with the losses of Jansen (1.4) and Martin (0.8), it looks bottom 5-6, IMO. Jansen and Martin are #1 and #3 in RP WAR, this year. When you see Booser is #4, Weissert is #4 and Bernardino is #5, you know this is a high need area. Inside fixes might be Whitlock, Hendriks, Fulmer and a full season from Slaten, but that does not come close to improving our ranking.

To me, we need:

SP1

Closer

Set-Up

SP3 or RP 4 or 5.

I doubt JH & Co see it this way. They likely think we need a SP3 and a couple decent set-up men.

Why is that when top OPS #'s are presented our players seem to score high. Are we that bad defensively?

[Nick]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I seriously doubt he gets a QO. He won't even get a $15M/1 or $27M/2 offer from anyone.

Isn't QO up to $20M? Who in the hell would give an injury prone player that much money? He's not that good. At most half as much and even at that Sox won't go for it.