Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, harmony said:

Next year Seattle may return an outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley.

As Mitch Haniger has been a starting outfielder in only five of Seattle's last 29 games, the Mariners are unlikely to be counting on Haniger next season. The M's might even attach a prospect or two (and cash) to move Haniger in a trade.

The third team involved makes more sense, if Abreu is going to be part of any trade w SEA, involving Wilyer.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, harmony said:

Next year Seattle may return an outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley.

As Mitch Haniger has been a starting outfielder in only five of Seattle's last 29 games, the Mariners are unlikely to be counting on Haniger next season. The M's might even attach a prospect or two (and cash) to move Haniger in a trade.

Haniger will be harder to move than Yoshida.  The man has played in 216 games over the past 3 years and hasn’t even sniffed a .700 OPS in the.last two.  Teams might not be lining up unless that’s one heckuva prospect…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The third team involved makes more sense, if Abreu is going to be part of any trade w SEA, involving Wilyer.

I liked the Texas match up.  
 

Their fWAR from RF is near the bottom of MLB, and they have Josh Smith at third whose whole job is to wait for Josh Jung to hurt himself.

 

Seattle needs a 3b.  The position has been handed over from candidate to candidate since Kyle Seager retired.

 

Of course, Seattle probably also needs a RF.  Sure they probably have some folks who believe in Victor Robles.  They’ll be questioning that belief by next June at the latest…

[harmony]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I liked the Texas match up.  
 

Their fWAR from RF is near the bottom of MLB, and they have Josh Smith at third whose whole job is to wait for Josh Jung to hurt himself.

 

Seattle needs a 3b.  The position has been handed over from candidate to candidate since Kyle Seager retired.

 

Of course, Seattle probably also needs a RF.  Sure they probably have some folks who believe in Victor Robles.  They’ll be questioning that belief by next June at the latest…

The Mariners replaced Kyle Seager with Eugenio Suarez, who posted 4.3 and 3.5 fWAR in his two seasons in Seattle before his trade to Arizona (where Suarez has posted 3.7 fWAR this year).

Wilyer Abreu and Victor Robles probably share uncertain projections.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

I liked the Texas match up.  
 

Their fWAR from RF is near the bottom of MLB, and they have Josh Smith at third whose whole job is to wait for Josh Jung to hurt himself.

 

Seattle needs a 3b.  The position has been handed over from candidate to candidate since Kyle Seager retired.

 

Of course, Seattle probably also needs a RF.  Sure they probably have some folks who believe in Victor Robles.  They’ll be questioning that belief by next June at the latest…

SEA does have Raley, too, so maybe they don't want Abreu, even if they part with Haniger in the trade, but we don't want haniger or Garver, unless we dump Yoshida.

So, most likely, no Yoshi, haniger or Garver in any trade, but yes, Abreu to TEX, Smith to SEA with Casas for a pitcher like Miller. If it's Castillo, the money does not jive for BOS.

[harmony]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

SEA does have Raley, too, so maybe they don't want Abreu, even if they part with Haniger in the trade, but we don't want haniger or Garver, unless we dump Yoshida.

So, most likely, no Yoshi, haniger or Garver in any trade, but yes, Abreu to TEX, Smith to SEA with Casas for a pitcher like Miller. If it's Castillo, the money does not jive for BOS.

Where would Wilyer Abreu fit in a Texas outfield that is likely to return Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter? How did Garcia's fWAR fall from 4.6 in 2023 to a negative 0.5 this year? Would the Rangers seek pitching in any trade of Josh Smith?

[notin]

34 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Mariners replaced Kyle Seager with Eugenio Suarez, who posted 4.3 and 3.5 fWAR in his two seasons in Seattle before his trade to Arizona (where Suarez has posted 3.7 fWAR this year).

Wilyer Abreu and Victor Robles probably share uncertain projections.

They may both have uncertain projections, but I don’t think they share them.  One guy is battling for ROY; the other was released by a last place team.  They’re not equals…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, harmony said:

Where would Wilyer Abreu fit in a Texas outfield that is likely to return Adolis Garcia, Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter? How did Garcia's fWAR fall from 4.6 in 2023 to a negative 0.5 this year? Would the Rangers seek pitching in any trade of Josh Smith?

Wyatt Langford only played 85 innings in the OF this year.  Not so sure he is inked in to play there next season.  Which of Carter, Langford and García are you handing CF to?

[harmony]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Wyatt Langford only played 85 innings in the OF this year.  Not so sure he is inked in to play there next season.  Which of Carter, Langford and García are you handing CF to?

This year Wyatt Langford has played 85 innings in center field but 821.1 innings total in the outfield.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/langfwy01.shtml

In his MLB career Wilyer Abreu has played 87.1 innings in centerfield, but only two innings this season.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

This year Wyatt Langford has played 85 innings in center field but 821.1 innings total in the outfield.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/langfwy01.shtml

My mistake. But they also clearly have no issues DHing him.

 

In fact, Abreu can play all 3 OF positions and could all Texas to rotate players into DH.

 

Of course the irony here is Texas probably has a better all around OF than Seattle, as Texas won’t be relying on Victor Robles…

[harmony]

52 minutes ago, notin said:

My mistake. But they also clearly have no issues DHing him.

 

In fact, Abreu can play all 3 OF positions and could all Texas to rotate players into DH.

 

Of course the irony here is Texas probably has a better all around OF than Seattle, as Texas won’t be relying on Victor Robles…

Victor Robles may end up the weakside platoon with Luke Raley in the Seattle outfield.

This year Robles has posted 2.9 fWAR in 67 games with the Mariners (and 3.3 fWAR in 117 games over the past two seasons).

This year Wilyer Abreu has posted 3.0 fWAR in 120 games with the Red Sox (and 3.6 fWAR in 148 games over the past two seasons).

The 2024 OPS+ with the Mariners for Seattle's projected returning outfielders: Julio Rodriguez 108, Randy Arozarena 127, Victor Robles 158 and Luke Raley 129. Wilyer Abreu has a 2024 OPS+ of 120.

One thing that will never change: Victor Robles is younger than late-bloomer Jarren Duran.

 

 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, harmony said:

Victor Robles may end up the weakside platoon with Luke Raley in the Seattle outfield.

This year Robles has posted 2.9 fWAR in 67 games with the Mariners (and 3.3 fWAR in 117 games over the past two seasons).

This year Wilyer Abreu has posted 3.0 fWAR in 120 games with the Red Sox (and 3.6 fWAR in 148 games over the past two seasons).

The 2024 OPS+ with the Mariners for Seattle's projecte 

Randy A's OPS+ is 110. It is 127 w SEA only (43 game sample size.)

[notin]

26 minutes ago, harmony said:

Victor Robles may end up the weakside platoon with Luke Raley in the Seattle outfield.

This year Robles has posted 2.9 fWAR in 67 games with the Mariners (and 3.3 fWAR in 117 games over the past two seasons).

This year Wilyer Abreu has posted 3.0 fWAR in 120 games with the Red Sox (and 3.6 fWAR in 148 games over the past two seasons).

The 2024 OPS+ with the Mariners for Seattle's projected returning outfielders: Julio Rodriguez 108, Randy Arozarena 127, Victor Robles 158 and Luke Raley 129. Wilyer Abreu has a 2024 OPS+ of 120.

One thing that will never change: Victor Robles is younger than late-bloomer Jarren Duran.

 

 

I’m sure Robles will work out just fine for the Mariners as long as he can sustain that .376 BABIP.  
 

Not sure what being younger than Jarren Duran means here.  My daughter is younger than Jarren Duran, too.  If you’re implying a similar breakout is imminent, one would have to wonder why the baseball people in Washington simply gave up on Robles, unlike the baseball folks in Boston did with Duran.

 

Youre really reaching. Robles is what he is - a glove first speedy outfielder riding a career high BABIP at a time when Seattle needs him to.  If they thought he was on the cusp of an 8 WAR season, they’d have locked him up for longer…

[harmony]

6 hours ago, notin said:

I’m sure Robles will work out just fine for the Mariners as long as he can sustain that .376 BABIP.  
 

Not sure what being younger than Jarren Duran means here.  My daughter is younger than Jarren Duran, too.  If you’re implying a similar breakout is imminent, one would have to wonder why the baseball people in Washington simply gave up on Robles, unlike the baseball folks in Boston did with Duran.

 

Youre really reaching. Robles is what he is - a glove first speedy outfielder riding a career high BABIP at a time when Seattle needs him to.  If they thought he was on the cusp of an 8 WAR season, they’d have locked him up for longer…

Some folks questioned whether Jarren Duran could sustain his .381 BABIP from last year.

[harmony]

On 8/22/2024 at 11:38 AM, Hugh2 said:

 

Mariners need bats.

 

BTV accepts Mayer/Abreu for Kirby. Seattle should do this.

FWIW since August 15 the Mariners lead all American League clubs with a wRC+ of 116:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-08-15&enddate=2024-11-01&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

The Seattle front office presumably is investigating the team's now perennial slow starts. Climate may be a factor ... or not.

[notin]

The obvious need is a frontline starting pitcher.  If the Sox are reluctant to spend on a free agent or to trade any Anthony, Mayer, Teel, or Kristian Campbell, I wonder who would be the best pitcher they could get for a package of Braden Montgomery and Franklin Arias…

[notin]

14 hours ago, harmony said:

Some folks questioned whether Jarren Duran could sustain his .381 BABIP from last year.

He didn’t. His BABIP is a lower .343 this year.

If Seattle is foolishly counting on Robles to magically transform into Jarren Duran, then they deserve the weak offensive showcase they are absolutely going to display.   This would be like the Red Sox expecting Justin Slaten to morph to Emmanuel Clase overnight…

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

The obvious need is a frontline starting pitcher.  If the Sox are reluctant to spend on a free agent or to trade any Anthony, Mayer, Teel, or Kristian Campbell, I wonder who would be the best pitcher they could get for a package of Braden Montgomery and Franklin Arias…

It seems the farther-away prospects just don't carry the value they once did, but those two might be exceptions.

I think the FO needs to look long and hard at our areas of needs and how we project the big 4's future value, then choose one to trade. I'm a huge fan of our young prospects, but our needs are too great for pitching, and we seem to be bottlenecking some players. I fully realize, we could choose the wrong guy to trade and what him have a HOF career, elsewhere, but my biggest worry is we trade one for a pitcher who then gets hurt or seriously declines the second we get him.

We need to roll the dice.

I get the argument that we are not a small market team and can sign 2-3 really good pitcher, "if Jh just opens his wallet," but I'm not counting on that. Even if he does, we should make a big trade and sign 2-3 pitchers!

[harmony]

1 hour ago, notin said:

He didn’t. His BABIP is a lower .343 this year.

If Seattle is foolishly counting on Robles to magically transform into Jarren Duran, then they deserve the weak offensive showcase they are absolutely going to display.   This would be like the Red Sox expecting Justin Slaten to morph to Emmanuel Clase overnight…

As it stands now, the Mariners are counting on Victor Robles to be no worse than a fourth outfielder behind Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Luke Raley.

Seattle hopes to improve on this year's wRC+ of 101, which trails, among others, the 105 wRC+ posted by the Red Sox.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

This would be like the Red Sox expecting Justin Slaten to morph to Emmanuel Clase overnight…

Slaten could look more like Clase, if he just grows his beard longer. But it may take a few nights.

[vegasbob]

On 9/17/2024 at 7:09 AM, notin said:

Yoshida for Rendon?? Sox get a RHH 3b and move Devers and Casas to 1b/DH roles.  What could go wrong?  He only has $76mill left on that deal for two more years!!

The good part of a trade for Rendon is that he probably would not show up in order to spend more time with his family.

[dgalehouse]

Maybe the Sox could trade Casas to Seattle for right hander Bryan Woo.  If he doesn't pitch well in Boston, they could option him to Triple A.  It would read, Woo 2 Woo. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, vegasbob said:

The good part of a trade for Rendon is that he probably would not show up in order to spend more time with his family.

True.  It’s not like Rendon does much for the Angels on the days he does play…

[notin]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Maybe the Sox could trade Casas to Seattle for right hander Bryan Woo.  If he doesn't pitch well in Boston, they could option him to Triple A.  It would read, Woo 2 Woo. 

And he’d probably get all depressed about it.  “Woo is me”, he’d say.  Over and over and over and over.  Until someone stuffed a baseball into his mouth…

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, notin said:

True.  It’s not like Rendon does much for the Angels on the days he does play…

worst contract in baseball. makes Yoshi's deal with the Sox seem almost decent in comparison.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

worst contract in baseball. makes Yoshi's deal with the Sox seem almost decent in comparison.

To me, Yoshi's deal isn't even the 2nd worst on the team, and was 3rd worst, last year, too.

2024:  worst is Story, 2nd is Gio, 3rd is Yoshi. (I can see making Yoshi 2nd if looking at full term.)

2023: worst was Story, 2nd was Sale, and 3rd was Yoshi (Maybe Sale was worst at full term.)

Kike $10M/1 and Kluber $10M/1 were pretty terrible, too.

[moonslav59]

At bare minimum, IMO, for us to have a legit shot at some serious competition in 2025, we need to add ...

#1 SP'er

Closer

LH RP'er (or solid #3 SP)

BARE MINIMUM!

Even with Miser Henry keeping things tight, we should be able to sign 2 of the 3 and trade for the other.

(Why do I keep doing this to myself?)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

At bare minimum, IMO, for us to have a legit shot at some serious competition in 2025, we need to add ...

#1 SP'er

Closer

LH RP'er (or solid #3 SP)

BARE MINIMUM!

Even with Miser Henry keeping things tight, we should be able to sign 2 of the 3 and trade for the other.

(Why do I keep doing this to myself?)

 

Last night, even NESN announcers were pushing for the Sox to get a #1 starter for next season...

What's more likely this winter, career MLB relievers Brez and Bailey spend big on an ace starter, or instead, spread the money around recruiting authentic big league bullpen help... and promote Fitts and Dobbins to the '25 rotation?

Btw: I like the idea of Criswell coming out of the pen (middle relief); he may not have the best stuff, but he's the quickest worker in the game, which can throw off hitters in big moments.

I do not like the idea of Crawford, though, because he leads the world in home runs allowed, and there's nothing more deflating than coughing up late-inning HRs. He's probably most effective just being the bulk guy for his own starts... 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Last night, even NESN announcers were pushing for the Sox to get a #1 starter for next season...

What's more likely this winter, career MLB relievers Brez and Bailey spend big on an ace starter, or instead, spread the money around recruiting authentic big league bullpen help... and promote Fitts and Dobbins to the '25 rotation?

Btw: I like the idea of Criswell coming out of the pen (middle relief); he may not have the best stuff, but he's the quickest worker in the game, which can throw off hitters in big moments.

I do not like the idea of Crawford, though, because he leads the world in home runs allowed, and there's nothing more deflating than coughing up late-inning HRs. He's probably most effective just being the bulk guy for his own starts... 

Good point on the HRs, and Crawford does let up many of his HRs in the first IP or two.

9 in the 1st, 4 in the 2nd and 11 in the third.

His OPS is slightly better, earlier in the game, but not by all that much:

.658 first 25 PAs (10 HRs in 196 PAs)

.775 second 25 (13 Hrs in 195)

.711 third 25 (8 Hrs in 201)

10 HRs in 196 PAs is like a batter hitting 33 Hrs over 650 PAs, but that .658 OPS Against might outweigh that.

I think you talked me into it, although I do wish we could have a better 5th SP'er than Kutter. Maybe Fitts wins the job, of Priester eventually gets his act together. I'm high on Dobbins, but the experts keep saying it's not likely he amounts to much as a starter.

1. _____

2. Houck

3. Bello

4. Gio

5. Crawford/Fitts (Criswell/Priester/Dobbins)

Maybe find the next Criswell for more depth, and use the rest of the resources on beefing up and lengthening the pen.

 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, Yoshi's deal isn't even the 2nd worst on the team, and was 3rd worst, last year, too.

2024:  worst is Story, 2nd is Gio, 3rd is Yoshi. (I can see making Yoshi 2nd if looking at full term.)

2023: worst was Story, 2nd was Sale, and 3rd was Yoshi (Maybe Sale was worst at full term.)

Kike $10M/1 and Kluber $10M/1 were pretty terrible, too.

If Story was healthy, his contract would not be an issue. Giolito's contract is palatable and short.

Masa is DH only and here for a while. He clearly has the worst contract.