Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox are a bunch of whiffers. They might not be quite the K Kings like Seattle, but Boston is a solid second in the AL in striking out... (the M's have better pitching and defense, which combines for the lowest runs-allowed in baseball).

The Sox have fanned at least 13 times in 27 games, when their record is 8-19. When they've scored 3 runs or less, they are 8 and 50... and in games when they combine striking out 13 times while scoring 3 runs or less, the record is stark: 1 W, 15 Ls.

In contrast, the 2018 Red Sox scored 3 runs or less 4 times in their first 7 games -- and won all 4. They also whiffed 13 times or more in only 8 games that season -- and won half of those.

In Worcester, Chase Meidroth is a .300 hitter with 102 walks and only 66 strikeouts. So what if he doesn't hit the ball as hard as a million all-or-nothing swingers -- can the MLB Whiff Sox use an infielder with a good glove, good OBP, and a 12.4% K-rate?

I'm not against giving him a shot, but where? 1B or 3B? 2B?

Also, be prepared for another player with a high OBP in the minors not seeing it translate to the bigs. It seems to happen more often than not.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I know it was ridiculous.  You could say the Yoshida and Castillo contracts cancel each other out and the $41 million is subsidizing Raffy for them by about $5 million a year. 

Not trying to justify a crazy trade here, but the $41 million alone isn't unrealistic.  Perhaps THIS TRADE IS, but the money isnt'.  Didn't the Sox send $48 million to LA to get David Price off the roster????

It turned out to be less due to Price optiing out of 2020's Covid season.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I know it was ridiculous.  You could say the Yoshida and Castillo contracts cancel each other out and the $41 million is subsidizing Raffy for them by about $5 million a year. 

Not trying to justify a crazy trade here, but the $41 million alone isn't unrealistic.  Perhaps THIS TRADE IS, but the money isnt'.  Didn't the Sox send $48 million to LA to get David Price off the roster????

And wasn’t that trade ridiculous?

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, notin said:

And wasn’t that trade ridiculous?

When I hear people say "that trade is ridiculous" I think they mean no way that ever happens. 

 

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It turned out to be less due to Price optiing out of 2020's Covid season.

correct, but irrelevant.  Sox didn't know that was going to happen at the time of the trade.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not against giving him a shot, but where? 1B or 3B? 2B?

Also, be prepared for another player with a high OBP in the minors not seeing it translate to the bigs. It seems to happen more often than not.

Bench/Utility; a guy in the dugout who won't whiff 25% of the time, like Romy, Ref or Hamilton...

... sorry, I know Gonzalez and Refsnyder have been our regular heart-of-the-order batters in our powerhouse lineup.

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

And wasn’t that trade ridiculous?

Trading Betts was ridiculously stupid.  The Price part was just meh.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Bench/Utility; a guy in the dugout who won't whiff 25% of the time, like Romy, Ref or Hamilton...

... sorry, I know Gonzalez and Refsnyder have been our regular heart-of-the-order batters in our powerhouse lineup.

To me, our bench has been one of our strengths.

Our team OBP is .321. Our SLG is .431.

Ref: .361/.472

DHam: .303/.395 (but does have 33 SBs that acts like turning singles into 2Bs)

Romy: .323/.418

They do K a lot, and their D is not very good, but these guys have done okay, as a group.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

correct, but irrelevant.  Sox didn't know that was going to happen at the time of the trade.  

I get your point. We were willing to pay that much, when we made the trade- a trade that included giving up Betts. But, let's face it, that trade was absurd, so I'm not sure using it as an example to defend your suggested trade helps your case.

[Hugh2]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I get your point. We were willing to pay that much, when we made the trade- a trade that included giving up Betts. But, let's face it, that trade was absurd, so I'm not sure using it as an example to defend your suggested trade helps your case.

suggested trade? when I posted the first thing I said was I often use BTV to show how ridiculous trades can be.  I wasn't suggesting it.  I mean, I'd make that trade but I don't believe another team would.  

[Bellhorn04]

BTV just cranks out raw dollar values and can't allow for things like actual team needs etc. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

suggested trade? when I posted the first thing I said was I often use BTV to show how ridiculous trades can be.  I wasn't suggesting it.  I mean, I'd make that trade but I don't believe another team would.  

Okay. 

I doubt they make the trade, if we gave them $81M.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, our bench has been one of our strengths.

Our team OBP is .321. Our SLG is .431.

Ref: .361/.472

DHam: .303/.395 (but does have 33 SBs that acts like turning singles into 2Bs)

Romy: .323/.418

They do K a lot, and their D is not very good, but these guys have done okay, as a group.

Those three coming off the pine are not the problem.

The problem is that those three have represented the heart of the batting order too much lately on what is supposedly an underachieving ballclub, according to the team president.

And I'm with you on the lame, constant excuse of the org relying on and hyping comebacks of injured players. The only true difference makers are Hall of Famers, and there's no Ted Williams returning from the war, or Joe DiMaggio coming off the IL to make huge impacts, like they did in the 1940s.

[moonslav59]

Our everyday player pool for 2025 looks strong and deep, despite the likely loss of O'Neill, our new OPS and HR leader for 2024. Not many teams can say that.

C: Wong & Teel (Gasper/Heineman)

1B: Casas (Romy/Wong/Devers)

2B: Campbell, D Ham, Grissom (Meidroth/Romy/ EValdez/Rafaela)

SS: Story, Mayer (Campbell, Romy, Sogard/Meidroth/D Ham/Rafaela)

3B: Devers, Meidroth (Romy/Sogard/Campbell)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder (EValdez, Campbell)

CF: Rafaela (Duran, Anthony, Campbell, Abreu)

RF: Anthony, Abreu (Refsnyder)

DH: Yoshida (Abreu- Ref, EValdez)

I count 17 useful players for 13 slots.

 

The pitching is the area with 3-4 gaping holes.

SP1 _____

SP2 Houck

SP3 ____

SP4 Gio

SP5 Bello/Crawford

SP Depth: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins (Whitlock/Wink)

Closer ____

Set Up ____

Set Up Hendriks

RP4 Slaten

RP5 Whitlock

RP5 Crawford

RP6 Wink

RP7 Fulmer

RP Depth: Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert, Booser, I Campbell, Guerrero, Mata, Murphy

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

When I hear people say "that trade is ridiculous" I think they mean no way that ever happens. 

 

Well lots of trades conjured by fans never happen.  Was your ridiculous proposal equal or not?  The Mariners did give up Kirby, but they didn’t exactly take back all our refuse in that deal…

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Our everyday player pool for 2025 looks strong and deep, despite the likely loss of O'Neill, our new OPS and HR leader for 2024. Not many teams can say that.

C: Wong & Teel (Gasper/Heineman)

1B: Casas (Romy/Wong/Devers)

2B: Campbell, D Ham, Grissom (Meidroth/Romy/ EValdez/Rafaela)

SS: Story, Mayer (Campbell, Romy, Sogard/Meidroth/D Ham/Rafaela)

3B: Devers, Meidroth (Romy/Sogard/Campbell)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder (EValdez, Campbell)

CF: Rafaela (Duran, Anthony, Campbell, Abreu)

RF: Anthony, Abreu (Refsnyder)

DH: Yoshida (Abreu- Ref, EValdez)

I count 17 useful players for 13 slots.

 

The pitching is the area with 3-4 gaping holes.

SP1 _____

SP2 Houck

SP3 ____

SP4 Gio

SP5 Bello/Crawford

SP Depth: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins (Whitlock/Wink)

Closer ____

Set Up ____

Set Up Hendriks

RP4 Slaten

RP5 Whitlock

RP5 Crawford

RP6 Wink

RP7 Fulmer

RP Depth: Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert, Booser, I Campbell, Guerrero, Mata, Murphy

Sounds great, but where are the numbers?  Casas and Story's 2024 seasons are injury-plagued and incomplete, and right now they can't hit a baseball.  Devers is clearly fighting a nagging shoulder injury and can't hit right now either. 

Wong, Rafaela and Yoshida are all hovering around a 1.0 fWAR.  All below average.

These are basically the same guys who are 21-31 in their last 52.

It's natural for us fans to be optimistic, but there are a ton of issues and question marks.

 

[notin]

54 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Our everyday player pool for 2025 looks strong and deep, despite the likely loss of O'Neill, our new OPS and HR leader for 2024. Not many teams can say that.

C: Wong & Teel (Gasper/Heineman)

1B: Casas (Romy/Wong/Devers)

2B: Campbell, D Ham, Grissom (Meidroth/Romy/ EValdez/Rafaela)

SS: Story, Mayer (Campbell, Romy, Sogard/Meidroth/D Ham/Rafaela)

3B: Devers, Meidroth (Romy/Sogard/Campbell)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder (EValdez, Campbell)

CF: Rafaela (Duran, Anthony, Campbell, Abreu)

RF: Anthony, Abreu (Refsnyder)

DH: Yoshida (Abreu- Ref, EValdez)

I count 17 useful players for 13 slots.

 

The pitching is the area with 3-4 gaping holes.

SP1 _____

SP2 Houck

SP3 ____

SP4 Gio

SP5 Bello/Crawford

SP Depth: Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins (Whitlock/Wink)

Closer ____

Set Up ____

Set Up Hendriks

RP4 Slaten

RP5 Whitlock

RP5 Crawford

RP6 Wink

RP7 Fulmer

RP Depth: Bernardino, Kelly, Weissert, Booser, I Campbell, Guerrero, Mata, Murphy

Barring unforeseen trades, if you think the Sox need that many pitchers, you’re going to be disappointed.  
 

A better hope IMO is that the Sox don’t foresee Whitlock and/or Fulmer in the rotation that is (and barring trades, I say this with a 100% guarantee) going to include both Bello and Crawford.  Not one or the other.  
 

I also doubt the Sox guaranteed $10mill to Liam Hendriks so he could pitch a second string set up role while they bought a more expensive closer and another set up guy…

[Bellhorn04]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

Barring unforeseen trades, if you think the Sox need that many pitchers, you’re going to be disappointed.  
 

A better hope IMO is that the Sox don’t foresee Whitlock and/or Fulmer in the rotation that is (and barring trades, I say this with a 100% guarantee) going to include both Bello and Crawford.  Not one or the other.  
 

I also doubt the Sox guaranteed $10mill to Liam Hendriks so he could pitch a second string set up role while they bought a more expensive closer and another set up guy…

Counting on a 36 year old pitcher coming off injury...hmmm... 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Counting on a 36 year old pitcher coming off injury...hmmm... 

Failing to do so was the biggest mistake they made this season.

Plus, whether or not you think it’s going to be a successful move, you know I’m right that it’s going to happen…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sounds great, but where are the numbers?  Casas and Story's 2024 seasons are injury-plagued and incomplete, and right now they can't hit a baseball.  Devers is clearly fighting a nagging shoulder injury and can't hit right now either. 

Wong, Rafaela and Yoshida are all hovering around a 1.0 fWAR.  All below average.

These are basically the same guys who are 21-31 in their last 52.

It's natural for us fans to be optimistic, but there are a ton of issues and question marks.

 

Wong, Rafaela and Yoshida all look better than 2023 and maybe better than we expected in Feb '24.

Abreu, Duran and the bench are much better. Casas, Devers and Story look about the same as we thought last winter.

Who looks worse or failed to meet expectations for everyday players?

How many look worse vs better? You tell your opinion on this... one by one.

[mvp 78]

Just for reference:

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Just for reference:

 

So, if the rumor that the budget will be $40M under the taxx line is true, that gives Brez $20M AAV to spend on filling 2-4 pitching holes (Pivetta, Jansen & Martin.)

YIKES!

No way we improve the pitching on $20M and the return of Gio, Whit, hendriks and Fulmer, UNLESS we make a MAJOR TRADE or two.

[mvp 78]

What's the point in being that far under the budget? It doesn't make sense to me if they are trying to sell us on next year. If they went 20M under and signed a few one year deals, it'd make more sense. 

[Randy Red Sox]

Once again the Sox took a feeble run at a W/C spot and missed out on dealing our impending FA's for prospects. Same old same old.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Counting on a 36 year old pitcher coming off injury...hmmm... 

sounds like a familiar idea with the Sox doesn't it?

[Randy Red Sox]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What's the point in being that far under the budget? It doesn't make sense to me if they are trying to sell us on next year. If they went 20M under and signed a few one year deals, it'd make more sense. 

Henry wants to be as much under the cap as possible as long the team remains "competitive". have you not figured that out yet?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Henry wants to be as much under the cap as possible as long the team remains "competitive". have you not figured that out yet?

If that's the case, they wouldn't have signed Giolito. 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Once again the Sox took a feeble run at a W/C spot and missed out on dealing our impending FA's for prospects. Same old same old.

I’d rather they made moves to go for it than just got close and repeatedly gave up.  And the last two years they did neither, which is the worst possible path.

As for the deadline trades, they didn’t give up much. Yorke was the biggest piece, and they did get a future piece for him.  Several of the others were going to require Rule 5 protection this off-season anyway…

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d rather they made moves to go for it than just got close and repeatedly gave up.  And the last two years they did neither, which is the worst possible path.

As for the deadline trades, they didn’t give up much. Yorke was the biggest piece, and they did get a future piece for him.  Several of the others were going to require Rule 5 protection this off-season anyway…

Agreed. Lugo might not have even been protected for Rule 5. No way paulino would have been.

Ovis Portes may amount to something special, but when? 2029?

Even if Yorke outshines Priester, I like the effort to improve pitching by trading bats.

All-in-all, the only significant deadline moves we made after Nate & Pearce in 2018 have been:

Pivetta '19 (Workman & Hembree)

Schwarber '21 (Aldo Ramirez)

Abreu & Valdez '22 (Vaz)

2 sells and 1 buy

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If that's the case, they wouldn't have signed Giolito. 

Unless he felt Gio was the cheapest way to keep us just barely "competitive."