Red Sox: Off Season 2024-2025

[notin]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say almost any bat is trade fodder, but I pointed out that the drawback to choosing Campbell is that he is the only one that bats RH'd.

L Anthony

L Casas

L Mayer

L Teel

(Even Duran bats LH'd.)

I get the fact that trading Casas makes Campbell the hardest one to fit into the infield, but we could play Story or mayer at 3B and the other at SS. Both would be better on D at 3B than Devers. I also think Devers would end up better on D than Casas.

I'm also thinking we should not have to trade 2 out of Casas, Anthony, Mayer and Campbell. We can trade for one SP and sign 2-3 other pitchers as FAs.

IMO, if we don't trade Casas, Mayer would be my second choice, although middle infield is a bigger need than OF. In terms of need areas, trading Anthony makes the most sense, but he looks scary good. Scary good gets us a better pitcher, but I keep coming back to starting the package with casas and Abreu, so we can keep Anthony, Campbell and Teel. If a second deal is needed, make it Mayer not Campbell, despite Campbell's worse D at SS. 

Just my take. I can understand choosing Campbell over mayer due to our lack of a decent SS, if Story gets hurt. I do NOT want Rafaela at SS in 2025.

 

Casas (27.9) and Abreu (29.7) for Bryce Miller (55.4)

Buy Campbell a 1b mitt.

Done…

[harmony]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why would SEA want Baty over Abreu?

The Mariners probably need a third baseman more than another outfielder with the likely 2025 returns of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley.

Before this season ZiPS gave Wilyer Abreu and Brett Baty similar three-year WAR projections:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/wilyer-abreu/23772/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brett-baty/26123/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections

Baty is five months younger than Abreu but may have one fewer year of team control depending on his service time calculation.

Going back to Baseball Trade Values in late 2023, the trade values of Abreu and Baty were nearly flipped from their current values. The BTV site is highly volatile.

 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Campbell doesn’t have a strong arm, probably the one weak link in his armor right now.  
 

I think he can play SS in a pinch but that arm won’t play full time at 3B

Dansby Swanson has been fine at SS with a below average arm. I wouldn't say it's impossible. Guys at BA aren't saying so anyway. 

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas (27.9) and Abreu (29.7) for Bryce Miller (55.4)

Buy Campbell a 1b mitt.

Done…

No. 

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dansby Swanson has been fine at SS with a below average arm. I wouldn't say it's impossible. Guys at BA aren't saying so anyway. 

He may fine there, and I'd be comfortable with him getting time there.  But if the arm is weak I'm not so sure that's the best place for him full time, especially if 2nd is more of a hole than 3B. 

[notin]

57 minutes ago, harmony said:

The Mariners probably need a third baseman more than another outfielder with the likely 2025 returns of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley.

Before this season ZiPS gave Wilyer Abreu and Brett Baty similar three-year WAR projections:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/wilyer-abreu/23772/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brett-baty/26123/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections

Baty is five months younger than Abreu but may have one fewer year of team control depending on his service time calculation.

Going back to Baseball Trade Values in late 2023, the trade values of Abreu and Baty were nearly flipped from their current values. The BTV site is highly volatile.

 

Boston gets: Bryce Miller (55.4)

Texas gets: Wilyer Abreu (29.7)

Seattle gets: Triston Casas(27.9), 3b Josh Smith (23.9)

 

Works out reasonably with current BTV values.  When the off-season gets here and teams can make trades, most figure to go down as all of these players will lose some control.  No idea how much each had when the current values were calculated.

Boston gets a much needed SP, and clears RF for Roman Anthony and 1b for Kristian Campbell (his new home).

Seattle gets a much needed hitter in Casas and upgrades 3b over the dregs they’ve been throwing out there all season.

Texas deals from their 3b surplus to upgrade their near-bottom (in terms of fWAR) right field position.

 

Everybody wins.  Texas benefits about $6mill in surplus value, with Seattle losing maybe $4mill and Boston losing $2mill.  But at these values, I accept that as equal…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Potential upgrade over Urias/Rojas/whoever?

Wouldn't trading haniger create a need for Abreu? Even with haniger, Abreu would fit w SEA.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He may fine there, and I'd be comfortable with him getting time there.  But if the arm is weak I'm not so sure that's the best place for him full time, especially if 2nd is more of a hole than 3B. 

2b may be the best option for him going forward. I'm just saying that he's a capable SS if it came to that. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Wouldn't trading haniger create a need for Abreu? Even with haniger, Abreu would fit w SEA.

Boy, it would just be great to have an injured, unproductive Mitch Haniger on the 40 man roster!

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Boston gets: Bryce Miller (55.4)

Texas gets: Wilyer Abreu (29.7)

Seattle gets: Triston Casas(27.9), 3b Josh Smith (23.9)

 

Works out reasonably with current BTV values.  When the off-season gets here and teams can make trades, most figure to go down as all of these players will lose some control.  No idea how much each had when the current values were calculated.

Boston gets a much needed SP, and clears RF for Roman Anthony and 1b for Kristian Campbell (his new home).

Seattle gets a much needed hitter in Casas and upgrades 3b over the dregs they’ve been throwing out there all season.

Texas deals from their 3b surplus to upgrade their near-bottom (in terms of fWAR) right field position.

 

Everybody wins.  Texas benefits about $6mill in surplus value, with Seattle losing maybe $4mill and Boston losing $2mill.  But at these values, I accept that as equal…

This makes a lot of sense. If SEA insisted on a player worth neat $4M, we could probably find someone (40 man roster or not.) I was thinking maybe Wink, Weissert, Kelly or Wikelman, if they are okay with adding to their 40, otherwise, maybe Castro, Zanetello or Hickey.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Boy, it would just be great to have an injured, unproductive Mitch Haniger on the 40 man roster!

I don't really want Haniger and or Garver, but getting Miller and unloading Yoshi would make them acceptable budget offsets, even if we cut them both. It would be nice to count on Garver as the #2 catcher, but I think those days are past. Haniger might be okay as a DH, and maybe could stay healthy and provide RH'd power.

[harmony]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wouldn't trading haniger create a need for Abreu? Even with haniger, Abreu would fit w SEA.

The Mariners are likely to return an outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Wouldn't trading haniger create a need for Abreu? Even with haniger, Abreu would fit w SEA.

No.  They have Arozarena, JRod and the newly extended Victor Robles in the OF already, plus Raley and some younger role players  like Cade Marlowe and Dominic Canzone.

They have nothing at 3b.  And no real 3b prospect in the minors, just a bunch of guys all named “Ben.”  Who was the last good third baseman named “Ben”?  I rest my case…

[notin]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This makes a lot of sense. If SEA insisted on a player worth neat $4M, we could probably find someone (40 man roster or not.) I was thinking maybe Wink, Weissert, Kelly or Wikelman, if they are okay with adding to their 40, otherwise, maybe Castro, Zanetello or Hickey.

If Seattle insists on equalizing the BTV values, they can call Texas themselves…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

No.  They have Arozarena, JRod and the newly extended Victor Robles in the OF already, plus Raley and some younger role players  like Cade Marlowe and Dominic Canzone.

They have nothing at 3b.  And no real prospect in the minors, just a bunch of guys all named “Ben.”  Who was the last good third baseman named “Ben”?  I rest my case…

Makes sense. You know SEA's needs more than I do. Sounds like you need a taker for Haniger and or Garver.

Would Mayer make sense w SEA?

I'm thinking Casas + Mayer for a better SP'er than Miller (Gilbert or Kirby).

Casas, Mayer & Yoshi for Kirby or Gilbert plus Garver or Haniger

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

If Seattle insists on equalizing the BTV values, they can call Texas themselves…

True, but to make the deal happen, I'd give a side piece worth $4M.

[notin]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No. 

You want Campbell to play 1b without a mitt?  Seems a bit cruel…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Makes sense. You know SEA's needs more than I do. Sounds like you need a taker for Haniger and or Garver.

Would Mayer make sense w SEA?

I'm thinking Casas + Mayer for a better SP'er than Miller (Gilbert or Kirby).

Casas, Mayer & Yoshi for Kirby or Gilbert plus Garver or Haniger

With JP Crawford signed for 2 more years and $23mill, interest in Mayer might be tempered….

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

The Mariners probably need a third baseman more than another outfielder with the likely 2025 returns of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley.

Before this season ZiPS gave Wilyer Abreu and Brett Baty similar three-year WAR projections:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/wilyer-abreu/23772/stats?position=OF#zips-3-year-projections

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/brett-baty/26123/stats?position=3B#zips-3-year-projections

Baty is five months younger than Abreu but may have one fewer year of team control depending on his service time calculation.

Going back to Baseball Trade Values in late 2023, the trade values of Abreu and Baty were nearly flipped from their current values. The BTV site is highly volatile.

 

Is this a serious justification to equalize Abreu and Baty?  So we should ignore that one player list  his starting job while the other is in the running for AL ROY.  But, hey, ZiPS said something 5 months ago.

Apparently, as I paraphrase Douglas Adams, ZiPS is definitive; reality is frequently inaccurate.

Edited September 12, 2024 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

They have nothing at 3b.  And no real 3b prospect in the minors, just a bunch of guys all named “Ben.”  Who was the last good third baseman named “Ben”?  I rest my case…

... there's gotta be at least one in every Little League game -- where you can always hear a coach yelling:

"Ben Yerneez!"

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

With JP Crawford signed for 2 more years and $23mill, interest in Mayer might be tempered….

How about Mayer at 2B (or 3B?)

[Hugh2]

Sometimes I like using BTV just to show how ridiculous it can be. 

For example:

Seattle gets:

$41 million cash/Tanner Houck/Rafael Devers/Masataka Yoshida/

Sox get:

Luis Castillo and George Kirby.

Sox go out and sign Burnes. Rotation:

Burnes/Kirby/Bello/Castillo/Giolito

Line up: C-Wong 1B-Casas 3B-Story SS-Mayer 2B-Campbell LF-Duran CF-Rafaela RF-Anthony DH Refsnyder/Abreu

Your DH is also your 4th outfielder. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Sometimes I like using BTV just to show how ridiculous it can be. 

For example:

Seattle gets:

$41 million cash/Tanner Houck/Rafael Devers/Masataka Yoshida/

Sox get:

Luis Castillo and George Kirby.

Sox go out and sign Burnes. Rotation:

Burnes/Kirby/Bello/Castillo/Giolito

Line up: C-Wong 1B-Casas 3B-Story SS-Mayer 2B-Campbell LF-Duran CF-Rafaela RF-Anthony DH Refsnyder/Abreu

Your DH is also your 4th outfielder. 

Radical.

[notin]

26 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Sometimes I like using BTV just to show how ridiculous it can be. 

For example:

Seattle gets:

$41 million cash/Tanner Houck/Rafael Devers/Masataka Yoshida/

Sox get:

Luis Castillo and George Kirby.

Sox go out and sign Burnes. Rotation:

Burnes/Kirby/Bello/Castillo/Giolito

Line up: C-Wong 1B-Casas 3B-Story SS-Mayer 2B-Campbell LF-Duran CF-Rafaela RF-Anthony DH Refsnyder/Abreu

Your DH is also your 4th outfielder. 

That you had to include $41mill in cash also shows it was ridiculous.

 

A simpler one with no cash included would be Seattle gets Yoshida (-21) and Boston gets Castillo (-7.5) and Garver (-13),  It works on their site because Castillo has 3 years and $72mil left on his deal plus a vesting option.  But he’s only 31 and I don’t see the Mariners taking an offer like that seriously…

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

That you had to include $41mill in cash also shows it was ridiculous.

 

A simpler one with no cash included would be Seattle gets Yoshida (-21) and Boston gets Castillo (-7.5) and Garver (-13),  It works on their site because Castillo has 3 years and $72mil left on his deal plus a vesting option.  But he’s only 31 and I don’t see the Mariners taking an offer like that seriously…

I do wonder how much SEA still values Castillo. Kicking the tires makes sense, there. If we can somehow include Yoshida, it's break my toe kicking that tire.

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Campbell doesn’t have a strong arm, probably the one weak link in his armor right now.  
 

I think he can play SS in a pinch but that arm won’t play full time at 3B

I would not play Campbell at short unless forced to! Second base or outfield or dh is perfect for him. Assuming we trade Cassas, he would be perfect between devers and story/mayer 

[harmony]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Mayer at 2B (or 3B?)

The Mariners are likely to take their chances on infield prospects Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Felnin Celesten and Michael Arroyo rather than trading valuable assets for Marcelo Mayer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox are a bunch of whiffers. They might not be quite the K Kings like Seattle, but Boston is a solid second in the AL in striking out... (the M's have better pitching and defense, which combines for the lowest runs-allowed in baseball).

The Sox have fanned at least 13 times in 27 games, when their record is 8-19. When they've scored 3 runs or less, they are 8 and 50... and in games when they combine striking out 13 times while scoring 3 runs or less, the record is stark: 1 W, 15 Ls.

In contrast, the 2018 Red Sox scored 3 runs or less 4 times in their first 7 games -- and won all 4. They also whiffed 13 times or more in only 8 games that season -- and won half of those.

In Worcester, Chase Meidroth is a .300 hitter with 102 walks and only 66 strikeouts. So what if he doesn't hit the ball as hard as a million all-or-nothing swingers -- can the MLB Whiff Sox use an infielder with a good glove, good OBP, and a 12.4% K-rate?

[Hugh2]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I would not play Campbell at short unless forced to! Second base or outfield or dh is perfect for him. Assuming we trade Cassas, he would be perfect between devers and story/mayer 

I did say "in a pinch" I don't want him to be the everyday shortstop.  I've seen him there, it's not elite defense but he's fine there too. 

Campbell seems to have the special ability of moving around the diamond and playing multiple positions.  Usually a player with versatile defense has been taught to do so to add value because they can't do so with the bat.  From what I gather 2nd seems to be his best position, but he can play at least average seemingly everywhere

Could Campbell be our Ben Zobrist????

[Hugh2]

16 hours ago, notin said:

That you had to include $41mill in cash also shows it was ridiculous.

 

A simpler one with no cash included would be Seattle gets Yoshida (-21) and Boston gets Castillo (-7.5) and Garver (-13),  It works on their site because Castillo has 3 years and $72mil left on his deal plus a vesting option.  But he’s only 31 and I don’t see the Mariners taking an offer like that seriously…

I know it was ridiculous.  You could say the Yoshida and Castillo contracts cancel each other out and the $41 million is subsidizing Raffy for them by about $5 million a year. 

Not trying to justify a crazy trade here, but the $41 million alone isn't unrealistic.  Perhaps THIS TRADE IS, but the money isnt'.  Didn't the Sox send $48 million to LA to get David Price off the roster????