A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Paxton is not out of the question either. He'd probably come real cheap this time.

 

I was going to type a long post of outrage, but my fingers cramped up and my eyes went blurry. Maybe I'll be ready again by the next deadline.

[Randy Red Sox]

Paxton is not out of the question either. He'd probably come real cheap this time.

 

yeah I forgot about him.

[Elktonnick]

Maybe they shouldn’t, but he’s not as hopeless as this board portrays.

 

His similarity scores by age do include Pablo López and Kevin Gausman, which would be terrific if that trend continues. Of course they also include guts like Jason Dickson, who had a minimal career cut short by injury…

 

Bello's problem is between his ears. Hopefully experience and maturity will cure what holds him back from reaching his full potential.

[mvp 78]

I was going to type a long post of outrage, but my fingers cramped up and my eyes went blurry. Maybe I'll be ready again by the next deadline.

 

You should see your doctor about that.

[Randy Red Sox]

I'm afraid JH & Co. agree with you that Hendriks can be counted on a closer, Gio can be counted on as a #2 SP and Whitlock as who knows what key role they assign him for 2025. IMO, I would not discount their "additions," as well as Fulmer's and maybe a full season from Slaten & Criswell and upticks from Weissert, I Campbell and others who underperformed in 2024.

 

No doubt, our top brass values these guys more than we do.

 

I'd count on Hendrick as the back-up closer and top 2 set-up man with an eye on needing depth, in case of further injury.

I'd count on Gio as a pretty safe bet to stay healthy and maybe give us 25 GS and 150 IP, but with numbers like a 3/4 SP'er.

I'd count on Whitlock to be a decent middle RP or set-up man, but if they slot him as a SP'er his over-under on GS might be 4.5.

Fulmer should be viewed as our 9th RP, at best.

Slaten should be good.

Not sure what we can count on from Criswell & Priester (Fitts & Dobbins)

 

The rest or our pen is as questionable as they are now... (Will they be this bad, is the question for most)

Bernardino

Kelly

Winckowski (make him a SP'er, again?)

Booser

Weissert

I Campbell

Horn

Guerrero

Mata & Murphy

 

I see it like this:

__Add___ to replace Jansen

Hendriks replaces the 2024 Martin (not the 2023 Martin)

Gio replaces Pivetta

Whitlock replaces Whitlock (2024 or which one?)

Crawford replaces a pen slot from 2024, wich creates a SP opening.

Criswell stays as our rotation depth (in AAA) or a mid-relief guy

 

Minimum needed to be significantly better in 2025 (still might not be enough) :

SP1 ___ add___

SP2 Houck

SP3 Giolito

SP4 ___add____

SP5 Bello

(SP Depth: Criswell, Wink, Preister, Fitts, Crawford/Whitlock)

 

Closer: ___ add___

RP2 Hendriks

RP3 ___add____

RP4 Slaten

RP5 Crawford

RP6 Whitlock

RP7 Winckowski

RP8 Fulmer

Pen depth: Bernardino, Kelly, Booser, (SP depth list,) I Campbell, Horn, Guerrero

 

I see 4 key pitcher additions needed, at minimum. I will not be surprised if we only add 1-2. (I'd prefer 5-6 additions.)

 

i doubt we make any " new KEY" P additions but I am sure we will bring in a couple depth P and like Bellhorn said -Paxton might be one of them.

[moonslav59]

i doubt we make any " new KEY" P additions but I am sure we will bring in a couple depth P and like Bellhorn said -Paxton might be one of them.

 

I remain "hopeful," but the word hope seems to carry an active aspect that assumes one thinks it could happen. While I do think it "could happen," I am very far from expecting it will or might happen.

 

I am tired of expecting JH to start spending "this winter." While has has given some the biggest contracts in team history over the last 3 seasons, we have lost so much salary from productive players, that it has not been enough to keep pace. The massive drop from 2019 (which also saw the loss of Kimbrel & Kelly with no replacement) to 2020 left so much ground to make up that the 2021 "uptick" was largely a mirage.

 

Looking back, I'm not all that angry about 2022 and 2023. I thought, at those times, we were just 2, maybe 3 major additions away from being a top contender. Maybe the hopes stirred up during the 2021 season gave me unrealistic expectations, but maybe 2021 was not a fluke. Anyway, I do not think a major pitcher added in 2022 or 2023 would have won us a ring, so I can understand why we held off. Remember, when you make a huge SP'er signing, the guy is usually 30-32 years old, and your window is short. Adding a 31 year old ace in 2022 might be a waste of money, by now.

 

I felt last winter was different. I think we could have started a "window" in 2024, as our kids were progressing, nicely. To me, passing on 2024, and the "full throttle" statement totally turned me off. My hope is that they decided the window starts in 2025, but maybe they are thinking 2026, when Anthony, Mayer, Campbell and Teel have some playing time under their belt. I hope to hell they choose 2025, and if they trade for a 26-28 year old TOTR guy, the window will still be open from 2026-2028 or longer.

 

Again, I am not EXPECTING it to happen, and maybe it doesn't happen in 2026, either. I'll deal with that, if and when it happens. To me, it better be 2025, of I will be joining the JH has to go brigade, which might already be at or above 50% of Red Sox Nation.

[mvp 78]

Well, bye.

[moonslav59]

Slaten activated.

Wink demoted.

Horn added as the 27th man.

Booser might be back "soon."

Hendriks continues rehabbing. 

No further updates on Story.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Slaten activated.

Wink demoted.

Horn added as the 27th man.

Booser might be back "soon."

Hendriks continues rehabbing. 

No further updates on Story.

keller stinks

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

keller stinks

Well, she is blind, so there is that. Within that context...

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Leaders w 250+ PAs:

1.197 Judge (WOW!

1.027 Soto

1.014 Witt

.993 Ohtani

7. Devers.940

(.881 Casas but just 119 PAs)

18. Duran .876

19. O'Neill .875

31. Abreu .833

34. Refsnyder .822

[Larry Cook]

Injuries and poor starters has stressed our bullpen, our lack of depth has been exposed. 
we need two quality starters and two quality relievers for 2025! 

[Jasonbay44]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

keller stinks

There is a guy guys on this roster who’ve been given way to many chances. Keller has proven he’s sucked and Joel Rodriguez has really proven he sucks time and time again. 
 

He is 32, he has an career ERA of nearly 5, he’s been cut countless times by multiple teams, career WAR of -1.5 and he somehow keeps ending up back on this team, I don’t understand it.

[Hugh2]

Nothing like a good old 5 game winning streak to crush your hopes and dreams.  Really the whole second half has been uninspiring. 

[Bellhorn04]

9 hours ago, Jasonbay44 said:

There is a guy guys on this roster who’ve been given way to many chances. Keller has proven he’s sucked and Joel Rodriguez has really proven he sucks time and time again. 
 

He is 32, he has an career ERA of nearly 5, he’s been cut countless times by multiple teams, career WAR of -1.5 and he somehow keeps ending up back on this team, I don’t understand it.

It's a full-on implosion of the pitching staff.  Starters wearing down, having shorter starts, a lot of terrible performances by relievers who have to be pulled, you reach a point that all you can do is grab another warm body and send them to the mound.  It ain't pretty to watch, that's for sure.

[moonslav59]

The worst part about this 5 game losing streak is not that it our first, but the fact that we were playing poorly before it, too.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's a full-on implosion of the pitching staff.  Starters wearing down, having shorter starts, a lot of terrible performances by relievers who have to be pulled, you reach a point that all you can do is grab another warm body and send them to the mound.  It ain't pretty to watch, that's for sure.

All is true, but let’s not let the gloves, or the bats off the hook either. This is also the third year in a row that a Cora led ball club has been a bad fundamental ball club.  Rich Hill has been activated, and will come to the rescue tonight, so help is on the way.

[moonslav59]

It's pretty nice seeing we have 5 batters in the top 35 OPS Leader List, but is shows how this is not enough to keep a team winning. We need pitching. IMO, the defense should improve, significantly, without any new additions, this winter. It's pitching, pitching and PITCHING!

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's pretty nice seeing we have 5 batters in the top 35 OPS Leader List, but is shows how this is not enough to keep a team winning. We need pitching. IMO, the defense should improve, significantly, without any new additions, this winter. It's pitching, pitching and PITCHING!

Sometimes those stats can be misleading. Big bats one day, and silent the next like yesterday DH.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

All is true, but let’s not let the gloves, or the bats off the hook either. This is also the third year in a row that a Cora led ball club has been a bad fundamental ball club.  Rich Hill has been activated, and will come to the rescue tonight, so help is on the way.

Even the 2021 team went only 29-27 through Aug-Sept.

27-32 in 2022

22-34 in 2023

10-13 so far in 2024

Cora tried resting players in past years. That did not work. He tried not resting them, excessively, this year. So far, that is not working, either.

Very little done at the deadlines has not helped, either.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Sometimes those stats can be misleading. Big bats one day, and silent the next like yesterday DH.

True, but the same is true for the other 30 batters in the top 35. Even Judge started out ay .663 after 24 games and was still at .725 on May 2nd (33 games.)

Few batters hit .850+ every month, and even if they do, they likely ha ve a week where they hit under .600.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even the 2021 team went only 29-27 through Aug-Sept.

27-32 in 2022

22-34 in 2023

10-13 so far in 2024

Cora tried resting players in past years. That did not work. He tried not resting them, excessively, this year. So far, that is not working, either.

Very little done at the deadlines has not helped, either.

Raffy, Duran, and the RAF Man have been your every day players, and the rest have been pretty much platoons anyway. Yes very little help once again at the trade deadline has not helped. The pitchers picked up have been worse since coming to Boston.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but the same is true for the other 30 batters in the top 35. Even Judge started out ay .663 after 24 games and was still at .725 on May 2nd (33 games.)

Few batters hit .850+ every month, and even if they do, they likely ha ve a week where they hit under .600.

I’m not disagreeing with anything, but just pointing out that the Red Sox record is what it is, because of the inconsistency, which at the moment is the losses piling up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’m not disagreeing with anything, but just pointing out that the Red Sox record is what it is, because of the inconsistency, which at the moment is the losses piling up.

The inconsistency has been pretty consistent since the All-Star break.

53-42 on July 14.

14-22 since...

Burn out the starters. Burn out the pen. Three years in a row (more if we count 2021, when Covid contributed a small gargle size).

How can the front office not notice a pattern when the fans notice a pattern. 

 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The inconsistency has been pretty consistent since the All-Star break.

53-42 on July 14.

14-22 since...

Burn out the starters. Burn out the pen. Three years in a row (more if we count 2021, when Covid contributed a small gargle size).

How can the front office not notice a pattern when the fans notice a pattern. 

 

The Covid season was 2020. I think we went something like 27-26 in the last 2 months of 2021.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Covid season was 2020. I think we went something like 27-26 in the last 2 months of 2021.

Covid actually knocked more key guys off the roster in August of '21 -- a lot of people forget that three-week stretch when everyone was catching it from each other, and Cora kept the Sox' playoff hopes alive with a bunch of scrubs.

It is probably the most underrated highlight of his managerial career.

[moonslav59]

True. We were missing a lot of players, those last two months. Other teams were, too, but it seemed like it hit us harder.

Losing ERod for all of 2020 hurt, too.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The worst part about this 5 game losing streak is not that it our first, but the fact that we were playing poorly before it, too.

But not immediately before it.  They had given us some more flickers of hope by going 4-3 against Baltimore and Houston on the road.  

Then the road warriors turned back into home patsies. 

[moonslav59]

4-3 was pretty good vs those two teams, but since the ASB, we have done poorly.

[Duran Is The Man]

On 8/24/2024 at 9:08 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

 

Paxton is not out of the question either. He'd probably come real cheap this time.

Paxton will tear something signing the contract and be out for the entire length of the contract. in all seriousness, i have no doubt they're interested in bringing him back just because he'd be cheap. but, by gawd, we gotta get rid of Chris Sale. f*** JOhn Henry.