A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

It's nice to see DHam have some pop in his bat. He's on pace for about 17-18 Hrs per 650, which isn't great, but when you add that with a pace of 40 2B+3B over 650 and close to 70 SBs, this guy might be a keeper. Those 70 SBs would turn 70 singles into 2Bs, but without the rbis that come with 2Bs not singles.

[moonslav59]

We've played 77.77% of the season and have some pretty awesome offensive numbers up and down the line-up and bench:

 

OPS Leaders (ABs)

.951 Devers (435) 6th in MLB among qualifiers

.875 O'Neill (313)

.873 Casas (101)

.867 Duran (525) 14th in MLB qualifiers

.843 Refsnyder (235)

.831 Abreu (306)

.814 Yoshida (276)

.795 D Janden (35)

.766 Wong (350)

.760 Romy (127)

.723 DHam (277)

.707 Rafaela (447)

(.707 Smith 249)

 

RBI+Runs-HRs

135 Duran

130 Devers

111 Rafaela

86 Abreu

84 O'Neill

82 Wong

 

SB (CS)

32 DHam (4)

32 Duran (4)

17 Rafaela (8)

7 Abreu (2)

7 Romy (2)

 

OBP

.375 Refsnyder

.372 Devers

.372 Yoshida

.353 Duran

.351 O'Neill

.340 Wong

 

SLG

.579 Devers

.524 O'Neill

.514 Duran

.500 ABreu

.468 Refsnyder

.442 Yoshida

 

TB

270 Duran

252 Devers

184 Rafaela

164 O'Neill

153 Abreu

149 Wong

122 Yoshida

114 DHam

110 Refsnyder

[vegasbob]

In the debate over the best OF alignment, and the nature of Fenway Park , it would seem best to have Rafaela in CF ( Assumes Story can stay upright at SS in '25) and Duran in RF, not LF. Now if the thinking is that JD does throw well enough for RF or that Abreu is a LH'ed arm then you are willing to sacrifice very small advantages for a less capable alignment.

 

Abreu has knocked himself out to make plays in RF and credit to him for that. However, catching the ball on the fly precludes the need to throw well because if you have to leap for it, the runner on third is going to score anyway , unless 2 outs. Based on 2024, opponents will try to get as many LH pitchers on the hill as possible vs the Sox, further diminishing Abreu. That space belongs to Refsnyder anyway. I don't see Rob as a Fenway RF'er.

[moonslav59]

The top 3 OPS teams in MLB are all in the AL East:

.772 NYY

.770 BAL

.768 BOS

 

Here is a breakdown of each team's top 9 batters by PAs:

 

BOS

.867 Duran

.951 Devers

.707 Rafaela

.766 Wong

.875 O'Neill

.831 Abreu

.814 Yoshida

.723 DHam

.843 Refsnyder

 

BAL

.929 Henderson

.827 Santander

.746 Rutschman

.728 Mountcastle

.774 Cowser

.814 Westburg

.685 Mullins

.796 O'Hearn

.725 R Urias

 

NYY

1.048 Soto

.682 Volpe

1.179 Judge

.648 Dugo

.661 Torres

.771 Stanton

.765 Wells

.630 Rizzo

.665 Cabrera

.512 LeMahieu

 

 

[moonslav59]

In the debate over the best OF alignment, and the nature of Fenway Park , it would seem best to have Rafaela in CF ( Assumes Story can stay upright at SS in '25) and Duran in RF, not LF. Now if the thinking is that JD does throw well enough for RF or that Abreu is a LH'ed arm then you are willing to sacrifice very small advantages for a less capable alignment.

 

Abreu has knocked himself out to make plays in RF and credit to him for that. However, catching the ball on the fly precludes the need to throw well because if you have to leap for it, the runner on third is going to score anyway , unless 2 outs. Based on 2024, opponents will try to get as many LH pitchers on the hill as possible vs the Sox, further diminishing Abreu. That space belongs to Refsnyder anyway. I don't see Rob as a Fenway RF'er.

 

I've thought about that switch, too, but I'm not sure such a big sacrifice in arm, especially in Fenway's RF is worth the other trade-off. Abreu's metrics show he's been a good defender in RF, but I'm not so sure. He seems to coast back on fly balls to the wall, then makes some desperate lunge to try and catch it. Many plays I've seen him mis are tough ones, so it's hard to blame him for that, but if he just learned to sprint to the wall and then jump straight up without risking injury or jolting the ball loose as the glove hits the wall. Just my observations.

 

I do think a Ref-Abreu platoon in LF would be much better, but I'm not certain Duran is a better RF'er.

 

Have you considered?

 

LF: Abreu-Ref

CF: Duran

RF: Rafaela

 

IMO, we keep things as they are and when Anthony wins the RF job, Duran and Rafaela stay put.

 

[oldtimer]

I've thought about that switch, too, but I'm not sure such a big sacrifice in arm, especially in Fenway's RF is worth the other trade-off. Abreu's metrics show he's been a good defender in RF, but I'm not so sure. He seems to coast back on fly balls to the wall, then makes some desperate lunge to try and catch it. Many plays I've seen him mis are tough ones, so it's hard to blame him for that, but if he just learned to sprint to the wall and then jump straight up without risking injury or jolting the ball loose as the glove hits the wall. Just my observations.

 

I do think a Ref-Abreu platoon in LF would be much better, but I'm not certain Duran is a better RF'er.

 

Have you considered?

 

LF: Abreu-Ref

CF: Duran

RF: Rafaela

 

IMO, we keep things as they are and when Anthony wins the RF job, Duran and Rafaela stay put.

 

I remember when you advocated trading Duran. To be fair, his defense was substandard at that time and he was working on his hitting. How things have changed. He is 4th in MLBB in extra base hits behind Judge, Otani and Witt. Add to that 32 BB and 33 steals, he has become an elite offensive player. Devers is 5th in MLBB and to be fair, he has less at bats, but the Sox offense has become a team strength. Good that Sox management kept the players with a high potential. We have one of the best outfields in baseball now and Anthony is an exciting prospect.

 

I hope Sox ownership is willing to backup this years unexpected performance by investing in quality pitching.

[Maxbialystock]

I remember when you advocated trading Duran. To be fair, his defense was substandard at that time and he was working on his hitting. How things have changed. He is 4th in MLBB in extra base hits behind Judge, Otani and Witt. Add to that 32 BB and 33 steals, he has become an elite offensive player. Devers is 5th in MLBB and to be fair, he has less at bats, but the Sox offense has become a team strength. Good that Sox management kept the players with a high potential. We have one of the best outfields in baseball now and Anthony is an exciting prospect.

 

I hope Sox ownership is willing to backup this years unexpected performance by investing in quality pitching. [/size][/b][/b][/b][/b][/b][/i]

 

Well put. We all hope exactly that and moonslav has proposed it relentlessly.

[Maxbialystock]

I've thought about that switch, too, but I'm not sure such a big sacrifice in arm, especially in Fenway's RF is worth the other trade-off. Abreu's metrics show he's been a good defender in RF, but I'm not so sure. He seems to coast back on fly balls to the wall, then makes some desperate lunge to try and catch it. Many plays I've seen him mis are tough ones, so it's hard to blame him for that, but if he just learned to sprint to the wall and then jump straight up without risking injury or jolting the ball loose as the glove hits the wall. Just my observations.

 

I do think a Ref-Abreu platoon in LF would be much better, but I'm not certain Duran is a better RF'er.

 

Have you considered?

 

LF: Abreu-Ref

CF: Duran

RF: Rafaela

 

IMO, we keep things as they are and when Anthony wins the RF job, Duran and Rafaela stay put.

 

 

I'm fine with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF because both have speed/range. Sox Prospects says Rafaela has a plus arm and Duran an average arm. Plus Abreu/Ref in LF makes sense.

 

This year I prefer Rafaela at SS because of his better range and better arm. No one else could have made that play he did deep in the hole today. Plus Duran is comfortable in CF and has pretty close to the same range. To me it is just stupid to put Duran in LF and Hamilton @ SS--except that Cora will do that to get as many lefty bats in the lineup as possible.

[Maxbialystock]

We've played 77.77% of the season and have some pretty awesome offensive numbers up and down the line-up and bench:

 

OPS Leaders (ABs)

.951 Devers (435) 6th in MLB among qualifiers

.875 O'Neill (313)

.873 Casas (101)

.867 Duran (525) 14th in MLB qualifiers

.843 Refsnyder (235)

.831 Abreu (306)

.814 Yoshida (276)

.795 D Janden (35)

.766 Wong (350)

.760 Romy (127)

.723 DHam (277)

.707 Rafaela (447)

(.707 Smith 249)

 

RBI+Runs-HRs

135 Duran

130 Devers

111 Rafaela

86 Abreu

84 O'Neill

82 Wong

 

SB (CS)

32 DHam (4)

32 Duran (4)

17 Rafaela (8)

7 Abreu (2)

7 Romy (2)

 

OBP

.375 Refsnyder

.372 Devers

.372 Yoshida

.353 Duran

.351 O'Neill

.340 Wong

 

SLG

.579 Devers

.524 O'Neill

.514 Duran

.500 ABreu

.468 Refsnyder

.442 Yoshida

 

TB

270 Duran

252 Devers

184 Rafaela

164 O'Neill

153 Abreu

149 Wong

122 Yoshida

114 DHam

110 Refsnyder

 

Terrific stats. Peerless.

[moonslav59]

I remember when you advocated trading Duran. To be fair, his defense was substandard at that time and he was working on his hitting. How things have changed. He is 4th in MLBB in extra base hits behind Judge, Otani and Witt. Add to that 32 BB and 33 steals, he has become an elite offensive player. Devers is 5th in MLBB and to be fair, he has less at bats, but the Sox offense has become a team strength. Good that Sox management kept the players with a high potential. We have one of the best outfields in baseball now and Anthony is an exciting prospect.

 

I hope Sox ownership is willing to backup this years unexpected performance by investing in quality pitching. [/size][/b][/b][/b][/b][/b][/i]

 

Yes, i suggested numerous Duran trades, over the years. He had a high BTV value for a reason, and we seemed to be getting better in the OF.

 

He certainly has outperformed that value given to him by BTV and me. I was dead wrong, and it wasn't the first time.

 

I could be dead wrong about trading Anthony.

 

While trading two prospects named HRam and Anibal Sanchez looked bad from that side, we got Beckett and Lowell for them, and we did not really care. I'm not sure of all the guys I suggested we get in return for Duran (and others,) I'm pretty sure most were pitchers and some have done well.

[moonslav59]

I'm fine with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF because both have speed/range. Sox Prospects says Rafaela has a plus arm and Duran an average arm. Plus Abreu/Ref in LF makes sense.

 

This year I prefer Rafaela at SS because of his better range and better arm. No one else could have made that play he did deep in the hole today. Plus Duran is comfortable in CF and has pretty close to the same range. To me it is just stupid to put Duran in LF and Hamilton @ SS--except that Cora will do that to get as many lefty bats in the lineup as possible.

 

One big plus of playing Rafaela at SS is it opens a slot for a big bat in the OF (Duran, O'Neill and the platoon of Abreu & Ref) over someone like Romy, Sogard or DHam. That is a massive upgrade in offense. Also, allowing DHam to platoon at 2B with Romy instead of both playing everyday, maximizes their offensive input and minimizes their defensive mistakes.

 

I'm fine with Rafaela at SS, for now, but it should not be the plan for 2025, and I suggest we minimize the chance of him ever needing to be used there, going forward, even in emergencies. A lot of that will depend on the health of Story & Mayer and whether Campbell can stick at 2B, but I think we won't see Rafaela at SS in 2025, too much.

 

O'Neill will bolt, so we will no longer get the big O plus by playing Rafaela at SS.

[moonslav59]

Terrific stats. Peerless.

 

Part of the reason Rafaela is on some of these lists is because he has way more PAs than all but Devers and Duran, but we should not short change him. He's done okay on O, and adjusted after a slow start and has stayed pretty steady at around .750-.800 just about every 10 games since early June.

[mvp 78]

I'm fine with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF because both have speed/range. Sox Prospects says Rafaela has a plus arm and Duran an average arm. Plus Abreu/Ref in LF makes sense.

 

This year I prefer Rafaela at SS because of his better range and better arm. No one else could have made that play he did deep in the hole today. Plus Duran is comfortable in CF and has pretty close to the same range. To me it is just stupid to put Duran in LF and Hamilton @ SS--except that Cora will do that to get as many lefty bats in the lineup as possible.

 

Per Statcast:

 

Abreu - 5th best OF arm in MLB

Ceddanne - 20th best arm in MLB

Duran - 66th best arm in MLB

 

Not sure why you'd waste Abreu in LF?

[mvp 78]

@itsbrianbarrett

Houck

 

Monday Start

 

8 Ks (26% strikeout rate)

0 walks

 

46 swings

18 whiffs (11 w/the sweeper)

39.1% whiff rate

 

Previous 8 starts

 

(Min 150 plate appearances)

 

*108 qualifiers

 

10.8% walk rate - 101st

13.3% strikeout rate - 107th

19.9% whiff rate - 94th

 

If Houck has turned a corner, it could be good news for the rest of the season!

[moonslav59]

Per Statcast:

 

Abreu - 5th best OF arm in MLB

Ceddanne - 20th best arm in MLB

Duran - 66th best arm in MLB

 

Not sure why you'd waste Abreu in LF?

 

I think he believes Duran's speed and athleticism would allow him to make more plays in RF than Abreu does, and those extra outs would compensate or overcome the arm deficiencies. I think he might be right.

 

My observations have concluded that Abreu has "just missed" making a lot of what would have been "big plays." Maybe Duran makes those plays look easy and others that Abreu didn't even come close to.

 

I think it's a close call.

 

I do think Duran>Ref in RF.

 

[mvp 78]

Per Statcast:

 

Feet saved or lost on OF plays due to reaction

 

Duran 1.2 (gets a better jump, but has a -0.8 due to really bad route taking which could be even worse in a huge RF he's never played)

Abreu 0.7

Rafaela 3 (towards the top of the league)

[Bellhorn04]

@itsbrianbarrett

Houck

 

Monday Start

 

8 Ks (26% strikeout rate)

0 walks

 

46 swings

18 whiffs (11 w/the sweeper)

39.1% whiff rate

 

Previous 8 starts

 

(Min 150 plate appearances)

 

*108 qualifiers

 

10.8% walk rate - 101st

13.3% strikeout rate - 107th

19.9% whiff rate - 94th

 

If Houck has turned a corner, it could be good news for the rest of the season!

 

Our pitchers are in the readjustment phase.

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

Twins/Royals are on a 90/91-win pace. To get to 92, they're gonna need to go 25-11.

 

Suppose 5-5 against AZ/BAL/NYY, they'll need to go 20-6 against the other teams.

 

They desperately need to rip off a 10-2 stretch or something in this upcoming set to make the math work.

 

Sox currently at a 86/87 win pace. Really need to pick it up if they want to make the playoffs!

[moonslav59]

Call it "luck" or "good fortune," I happen to think Criswell has done a more than decent job as a SP'er with the Sox.

 

ERAs as SP (7 or more GS)

3.01 Houck

3.88 Criswell

4.25 Crawford

4.70 Pivetta

4.80 Bello

 

OPSA

.616 Houck

.704 Crawford

.726 Criswell

.750 Pivetta

.771 Bello

 

Counting his RP games, which have been worse for Criswell, look at ERA vs FIP

-0.51 Crawford 4.25/4.76

-0.17 Houck 3.01/3.18

+0.25 Bello 4.80/4.55

+0.27 Pivetta 4.70/4.43

+0.49 Criswell 4.41/3.92

 

FIP of all Sox pitchers with 48+ IP

3.18 Houck

3.92 Criswell

4.14 Weissert

4.43 Pivetta (23 HRs does not help)

4.55 Bello (3.4 BB/9 hurts)

4.69 Wink

4.76 Crawford (28 HRs really hurts)

4.84 Kelly

5.59 Anderson

 

We hear a lot about Brez's botch trade of Sale and Gio signing, but signing Criswell is rarely mentioned, at all.

 

The team is 8 games over .500 and are 10-4 in Criswell's starts. Do the math!

[Bellhorn04]

Criswell was a great bargain without a doubt. Henry probably thinks about this signing just before he gets amorous with Linda.

[moonslav59]

@SPChrisHatfield

Twins/Royals are on a 90/91-win pace. To get to 92, they're gonna need to go 25-11.

 

Suppose 5-5 against AZ/BAL/NYY, they'll need to go 20-6 against the other teams.

 

They desperately need to rip off a 10-2 stretch or something in this upcoming set to make the math work.

 

Sox currently at a 86/87 win pace. Really need to pick it up if they want to make the playoffs!

 

We will need help, but the teams ahead of us play each other, so we know they will get some losses, there.

 

We have to take care of our own business.

 

We play AZ next and go the Mets in early SEP, but otherwise this next stretch looks like our best chance to put together a nice stretch.

 

We need to start by learning how to win at home:

3 v AZ (72-56) is not easy

5 v TOR (59-68)

 

Then, continue doing well on the road:

3 @ DET (62-65)

3 @ NYM (66-61 but playing much better)

 

Followed by hitting the CWS hard at home for 3 games.

 

This is 17 games. I'm thinking even 10-7 or 9-8 won't be enough.

 

We need to be sitting pretty by SEP 9th, when we start this stretch:

3 BAL

4@NYY

3@TBR

3 MIN

3@TOR

3 TBR

[Elktonnick]

With the young talent in Worcester, trying to predict the 2025 outfield alignment or the whole starting lineup for that matter is a real crap shoot. I am certainly looking forward to my annual sojourn to spring training to see this young talent compete for starting jobs.

That is not to say that I have given up on this season, hardly! KC has a tougher schedule remaining than does Boston. I am liking the Sox chances to make the playoffs. Heck, once in, anything can happen.

I must say this year has been a pleasant surprise and Duran is my Red Sox MVP regardless of what the stats say. He is the most exciting player on the field whenever the Red Sox play.

[mvp 78]

With the young talent in Worcester, trying to predict the 2025 outfield alignment or the whole starting lineup for that matter is a real crap shoot. I am certainly looking forward to my annual sojourn to spring training to see this young talent compete for starting jobs.

That is not to say that I have given up on this season, hardly! KC has a tougher schedule remaining than does Boston. I am liking the Sox chances to make the playoffs. Heck, once in, anything can happen.

I must say this year has been a pleasant surprise and Duran is my Red Sox MVP regardless of what the stats say. He is the most exciting player on the field whenever the Red Sox play.

 

Duran 7.5 bWAR

Devers 4.2 bWAR

 

Yeah, Duran is the MVP for sure.

[moonslav59]

With the young talent in Worcester, trying to predict the 2025 outfield alignment or the whole starting lineup for that matter is a real crap shoot. I am certainly looking forward to my annual sojourn to spring training to see this young talent compete for starting jobs.

That is not to say that I have given up on this season, hardly! KC has a tougher schedule remaining than does Boston. I am liking the Sox chances to make the playoffs. Heck, once in, anything can happen.

I must say this year has been a pleasant surprise and Duran is my Red Sox MVP regardless of what the stats say. He is the most exciting player on the field whenever the Red Sox play.

 

I think we don't replace the departing O'Neill, despite our need for a big RHB.

 

Our opening Day OF:

LF Duran (Ref)

CF Rafaela (Duran)

RF Abreu (Ref)

 

By mid season, if Anthony joins the crowd, we'd need Rafaela to play 2B/SS to get enough PAs for everyone, or make a trade (Abreu?)

[moonslav59]

Duran 7.5 bWAR

Devers 4.2 bWAR

 

Yeah, Duran is the MVP for sure.

 

6.0 to 4.3 on fangraphs.

 

Duran, Duran.

[mvp 78]

6.0 to 4.3 on fangraphs.

 

Duran, Duran.

 

Hungry like the Angry Lizard

[mvp 78]

I think we don't replace the departing O'Neill, despite our need for a big RHB.

 

Our opening Day OF:

LF Duran (Ref)

CF Rafaela (Duran)

RF Abreu (Ref)

 

By mid season, if Anthony joins the crowd, we'd need Rafaela to play 2B/SS to get enough PAs for everyone, or make a trade (Abreu?)

 

O'Neilll's glove has been pretty mediocre to bad lately and his arm even worse.

[Duran Is The Man]

Criswell was a great bargain without a doubt. Henry probably thinks about this signing just before he gets amorous with Linda.

 

probably just the mental lighter fluid he needs to pull it off.

[Bellhorn04]

O'Neilll's glove has been pretty mediocre to bad lately and his arm even worse.

 

And he continues his practice of finding diverse ways to miss games...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Criswell was a great bargain without a doubt. Henry probably thinks about this signing just before he gets amorous with Linda.

 

Wait -- they're still married to each other... and still amorous with each other?!?

 

This whole thread should be green.