A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Maxbialystock]

2024

163 Devers

145 O'Neill (good job, Brez!)

133 Ref (TY Bloom)

131 Duran (Glad we never traded him)

129 Abreu (Vaz who?)

122 Yoshida (Overpay?)

116 Wong (Let's forget Jeter Downs.)

 

Back to Devers: career high OPS+

163 2024, blows all other seasons away!

141 2022

134 2021

132 2019, generally considered his best career year

126 2023

 

Great stats on Devers, who is just another example that the strength of the 2024 Sox is the lineup which Breslow has done very little to improve. O'Neill has been decent at the plate, especially as a righty bat, but can't stay healthy.

 

But just about everybody else was here when Breslow arrived. And that lineup is ranked 4th in MLB in runs scored and 3d in team OPS, thanks to Breslow, DD, and even Cherington. Worcester currently has Anthony, Teel, and Mayer, all of whom could arrive in Boston next season, along with--we can only hope--a healthy Story. You have argued some of the lineup players, including those three at Worcester, could be used as trade bait to improve the pitching, and I now agree.

 

But pitching? The future looks grim--and that's supposed to be Breslow's strength because he was a MLB pitcher.

[moonslav59]

Great stats on Devers, who is just another example that the strength of the 2024 Sox is the lineup which Breslow has done very little to improve. O'Neill has been decent at the plate, especially as a righty bat, but can't stay healthy.

 

But just about everybody else was here when Breslow arrived. And that lineup is ranked 4th in MLB in runs scored and 3d in team OPS, thanks to Breslow, DD, and even Cherington. Worcester currently has Anthony, Teel, and Mayer, all of whom could arrive in Boston next season, along with--we can only hope--a healthy Story. You have argued some of the lineup players, including those three at Worcester, could be used as trade bait to improve the pitching, and I now agree.

 

But pitching? The future looks grim--and that's supposed to be Breslow's strength because he was a MLB pitcher.

 

At the start of the season, I mentioned how we had such a large amount of players with some serious upside- some already proven: some speculative. One thing I mentioned was the possibility that Devers had yet to have his best season of his career. Afterall, he's the same age as Duran, who we viewed as still learning and growing. I'm not claiming I "called it:" I just suggested it was one of many possible plusses that could boost our offense into a better than 2023 offense, despite the losses of Turner, Dugo and Duvall.

 

We've seen a lot of those what ifs come positive, including our catchers reaching above average status as a group, especially now with Wong and Jansen.

 

As bad as our middle IF D has been, they have hit better than expected while stealing a lot of bases, along the way.

 

We've seen our OF go from near league worst two years ago to one of the best on O and D. We can even afford to lose O'Neill, who is hitting over .900 and not miss a beat.

 

We even saw D Smith and Romy do a decent job covering 1B during the Casas injury.

 

All-in-all, this has been a very exciting offense to watch, including us being a top 5 SB team. It's been a lot of fun for me to watch.

 

The pitching was fun for a while. The D has been scary bad, at times, with a few glimpses of improvement, here and there, but all-i-all not much fun to watch. Devers seems to have settled down. Rafaela and Duran have been amazing in the OF, while Abreu and O'Neill have had mixed defenses. Wong needs to improve in some areas, but we seem to have the opponents running game under control. These days, that is a very good thing.

 

To me, this team is set up very well, going forward, as long as we address our key weaknesses: pitching and defense.

 

The defense may be "fixed" by having a healthy Story and some farm infusions by Mayer, Anthony and Teel. Keeping rafaela in CF would be a big boost.

 

The pitching needs outside help, and in a big way. That will take spending from JH and better choices by Brez and trades and signings in this area.

[Dipre]

Counting with too many starters with no experience over the threshold of 120 IP in an MLB season was bound to see wear-down on the rotation. But overall, the pitch selection experiment has been a good one and bodes well for the future......if they can get some actual MLB level pitchers.

[Larry Cook]

Counting with too many starters with no experience over the threshold of 120 IP in an MLB season was bound to see wear-down on the rotation. But overall, the pitch selection experiment has been a good one and bodes well for the future......if they can get some actual MLB level pitchers.

 

We have something like 40 million coming off the books this offseason. Will ownership invest in starting pitching?

[Dipre]

We have something like 40 million coming off the books this offseason. Will ownership invest in starting pitching?

 

If they don't, don't expect a playoff berth next season unless the farm provides multiple arms, which isn't likely to happen.

[notin]

We have something like 40 million coming off the books this offseason. Will ownership invest in starting pitching?

 

No. Next question…

[Larry Cook]

No. Next question…

 

Will ownership pocket the cash?

[notin]

Will ownership pocket the cash?

 

They sure as heck aren’t gonna donate it to the Hare Krishnas.

 

They’ll pocket some, and re-invest some in another sports venture, like a professional disc golf league or falconry or roller derby…

[mvp 78]

They sure as heck aren’t gonna donate it to the Hare Krishnas.

 

They’ll pocket some, and re-invest some in another sports venture, like a professional disc golf league or falconry or roller derby…

 

If they rode the T in the 90’s, I’m sure they’d have at least one copy of the Bhagavad Gita like me.

[moonslav59]

We have something like 40 million coming off the books this offseason. Will ownership invest in starting pitching?

 

I still think the odds are better we trade for pitching and not spend more on it.

 

Still, if we just spend equally, the money spent on Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, Paxton, Garcia, Sims and others is enough to get 2-3 nice arms.

[Nick]

According to Cot's, we're $106M under the cap going into the winter.

 

We'll have 3, arbitration I players in Tanner, Kutter and Duran. Our line up will look like, without any additions.

 

CC Wong

1B Casas

2B Hamilton/Grissom

SS Story

3B Devers

LF Duran

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu

DH Yoshida

OF Refsnyder

 

Need a backup catcher, a right handed bat that can play corners/OF/DH, we have plethora of infield utility players.

 

Basically, Duran requires a 'pay raise'. Maybe a veteran right handed bat for

 

We'd have almost $80M to REBUILD THE FREAKIN' PITCHING STAFF IF WE SPEND TO THE CAP;

 

(And that's with Giolito, Whitlock and Liam returning, the players not on the IR right now)

 

So I'm spending $26M for a right handed bat plus giving raises to Duran, Kutter and Houck.

 

Our pitching staff already has in fold, Kutter, Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Criswell, Bernadino, Slaten, Winckowski, etc.

 

I already stated earlier, this is the winter we'll find out Henry's intentions going forward. If they go on the cheap again, then it will always be a hope and a prayer. We'll never get over the hump. Oh, we'll be teased, but not get there.

Edited August 18, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

According to Cot's, we're $106M under the cap going into the winter.

 

We'll have 3, arbitration I players in Tanner, Kutter and Duran. Our line up will look like, without any additions.

 

CC Wong

1B Casas

2B Hamilton/Grissom

SS Story

3B Devers

LF Duran

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu

DH Yoshida

OF Refsnyder

 

Need a backup catcher, a right handed bat that can play corners/OF/DH, we have plethora of infield utility players.

 

Basically, Duran requires a 'pay raise'. Maybe a veteran right handed bat for

 

We'd have almost $80M to REBUILD THE FREAKIN' PITCHING STAFF IF WE SPEND TO THE CAP;

 

We can easily add a guy like Heineman or just go with Teel, but I think we hold off starting his service clock.

 

I think we do NOT add a RHB, unless we trade a LHB for one.

 

We should spend every penny and trade asset on upgrading and replacing pitching.

[mvp 78]

We can easily add a guy like Heineman or just go with Teel, but I think we hold off starting his service clock.

 

I think we do NOT add a RHB, unless we trade a LHB for one.

 

We should spend every penny and trade asset on upgrading and replacing pitching.

 

They already have Gasper up. Why add Heineman?

[moonslav59]

They already have Gasper up. Why add Heineman?

 

We are talking 2025's back-up catcher, and I said a "guy like Heineman," so maybe it will still be Gasper.

 

(BTW, our back-up catcher is really Jansen, now.)

[moonslav59]

It doesn't look like KCR and MIN are going to roll over. Right now, they are pulling away. There are still 37-39 games left for everyone, so there is time for a comeback, but we better start soon.

 

We are 3.5 behind KCR, 4.5 from MIN and 7 from NYY.

 

The 4th place Rays are closer to us than we are the KCR.

 

Time to pull it all together. It looks like the rotation might be coming around, but we need the pen and D to get better.

[vegasbob]

Anyone think the Sox should claim Brent Honeywell from LAD ( DFA'ed) and drop One of our guys, including and up to Luis Garcia ?

[mvp 78]

Hendriks rehab at WOO today: 1IP, 0ER, 0K, 0 WHIP

[mvp 78]

Anyone think the Sox should claim Brent Honeywell from LAD ( DFA'ed) and drop One of our guys, including and up to Luis Garcia ?

 

They need to try anything in that pen.

[notin]

Anyone think the Sox should claim Brent Honeywell from LAD ( DFA'ed) and drop One of our guys, including and up to Luis Garcia ?

 

Why did the Dodgers release him?

 

Brent Honeywell is one of those guys who can injure himself by thinking too hard. Is he hurt again and the Dodgers decided to just drop him? He was pitching pretty well in limited action this year…

[moonslav59]

Sox lead MLB in 2Bs.

4th in 3Bs

1st in 2B+3B

6th in HRs (1 from MIN)

6th in SBs (3 from PHI)

5th OBP (.002 fromLAD, .003 from MIL and .004 from ARI)

2nd in SLG (.010 from PHI)

3rd in OPS (.001 from BAL and .004 from NYY)

 

XBHs

431 BAL

430 BOS

418 MIN

415 LAD

396 NYM

394 ARI & NYY

378 KCR

 

[Duran Is The Man]

Sox lead MLB in 2Bs.

4th in 3Bs

1st in 2B+3B

6th in HRs (1 from MIN)

6th in SBs (3 from PHI)

5th OBP (.002 fromLAD, .003 from MIL and .004 from ARI)

2nd in SLG (.010 from PHI)

3rd in OPS (.001 from BAL and .004 from NYY)

 

XBHs

431 BAL

430 BOS

418 MIN

415 LAD

396 NYM

394 ARI & NYY

378 KCR

 

 

good stuff. there is no doubt we have some bats. now do the pitching staff. LOL.

[Hugh2]

good stuff. there is no doubt we have some bats. now do the pitching staff. LOL.

 

Not going to post it all, but we're effectively in the 18-20th range on a lot of things.

 

What I find interesting is the xFIP where we are 9th.

 

The pitching isn't great, but two things have made it worse. Homeruns, and bad defense. That's what has killed the pitching staff.

[mvp 78]

We can easily add a guy like Heineman or just go with Teel, but I think we hold off starting his service clock.

 

I think we do NOT add a RHB, unless we trade a LHB for one.

 

We should spend every penny and trade asset on upgrading and replacing pitching.

 

Ok, I missed that. I think Heineman is DFA'd this offseason. Not sure he'll be an option for 2025.

[moonslav59]

Ok, I missed that. I think Heineman is DFA'd this offseason. Not sure he'll be an option for 2025.

 

He's arb 1, so maybe we just find a min wage guy like him or go with Gasper, who can also play 1B.

 

I do not think we add Teel to the 40 until midseason or later.

[mvp 78]

He's arb 1, so maybe we just find a min wage guy like him or go with Gasper, who can also play 1B.

 

I do not think we add Teel to the 40 until midseason or later.

 

Gasper hits pretty well and has mediocre utility. Heineman may be ARB 1, but he's a 33 year old journeyman catcher. Neither guy would be a big loss if they left the organization.

 

Breslow brought in loads of catchers last offseason. I bet he does something similar this year. Being a former pitcher, I think he values that position higher than we have in the past.

[moonslav59]

Gasper hits pretty well and has mediocre utility. Heineman may be ARB 1, but he's a 33 year old journeyman catcher. Neither guy would be a big loss if they left the organization.

 

Breslow brought in loads of catchers last offseason. I bet he does something similar this year. Being a former pitcher, I think he values that position higher than we have in the past.

 

Maybe he brings back Danny Jansen on a 1 year deal.

 

I think he'll just sign 1-2 minor league deals with Catchers having MLB experience. No need to even be on the 40, except for who will be Wong's back-up.

[moonslav59]

Games up to Sept 8th:

 

BOS: 3@HOU, 3 v ARI, 5 v TOR, 3@DET, 3@NYM, 2vCWS

KCR: 3vLAA, 3 v PHI, 4@CLE, 4@HOU, 3vCLE. 3 v MIN

MIN: 3@SDP, 3vSTL, 3v ATL, 3v TOR, 4@TBR, 3@KCR

 

It could very well be "now or never."

 

[notin]

Maybe he brings back Danny Jansen on a 1 year deal.

 

I think he'll just sign 1-2 minor league deals with Catchers having MLB experience. No need to even be on the 40, except for who will be Wong's back-up.

 

Guys like Heineman, Alfaro, Joe Hudson, Christian Bethancourt, etc. - 30+ year old minor league catchers - are the MLB equivalent of punters. Year to year, team to team. They keep getting work because it’s baseball’s most specialized position and you need a few extra bodies just in case…

[Maxbialystock]

Guys like Heineman, Alfaro, Joe Hudson, Christian Bethancourt, etc. - 30+ year old minor league catchers - are the MLB equivalent of punters. Year to year, team to team. They keep getting work because it’s baseball’s most specialized position and you need a few extra bodies just in case…

 

Nicely said.

[mvp 78]

Maybe he brings back Danny Jansen on a 1 year deal.

 

I think he'll just sign 1-2 minor league deals with Catchers having MLB experience. No need to even be on the 40, except for who will be Wong's back-up.

 

He was only 3.5M this year. That's not a big enough chunk of change to worry about moving midseason.