A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[mvp 78]

And he continues his practice of finding diverse ways to miss games...

 

If only we had Verdugo sulking and barking!

 

I like O'Neilll, but he's not coming back.

 

794 OPS since May 1. It's fine. He's been solid since the ASB. I think we knew he couldn't hold up for 162.

[mvp 78]

Wait -- they're still married to each other... and still amorous with each other?!?

 

This whole thread should be green.

 

She's a woman of many talents. CEO of the Boston Globe! From her Insta: producer, convener, ideator, adventurer. What can't she do?

[moonslav59]

O'Neilll's glove has been pretty mediocre to bad lately and his arm even worse.

 

We will miss the RHB, but maybe Story can make some of that up. Casas does okay vs RHPs, so he will help, too.

 

Mayer, Anthony and Teel will not help our RHB issue.

 

[mvp 78]

We will miss the RHB, but maybe Story can make some of that up. Casas does okay vs RHPs, so he will help, too.

 

Mayer, Anthony and Teel will not help our RHB issue.

 

 

I don't now if the Red Sox see it as an issue.

 

Devers and Casas don't have issues with splits. Anthony and Teel have been good in MiLB.

 

Duran, Hamilton, Abreu, Yoshida and Mayer have had their issues. Masa was good last year. Duran has been a little bit better than he was in the past. Abreu has a big split and they really avoid playing him against LHP. Mayer may get better, but split issues have been more of a concern as he's progressed in the minors.

[Maxbialystock]

Per Statcast:

 

Feet saved or lost on OF plays due to reaction

 

Duran 1.2 (gets a better jump, but has a -0.8 due to really bad route taking which could be even worse in a huge RF he's never played)

Abreu 0.7

Rafaela 3 (towards the top of the league)

 

Next year, fine, Rafaela in CF.

 

But this year his quickness and arm make him our best defensive SS--see yesterday's out from deep in the hole.

 

When will you ever agree that being fast afoot is actually an asset for a centerfielder? I'm looking at the ESPN listing of MLB centerfielders' DWAR's and Duran's is second best at +1.9.

 

To me it is criminal to put Duran with all that speed in freaking left field, especially at Fenway Park. Think Manny Ramirez or, better still, Ted Williams.

[notin]

Next year, fine, Rafaela in CF.

 

But this year his quickness and arm make him our best defensive SS--see yesterday's out from deep in the hole.

 

When will you ever agree that being fast afoot is actually an asset for a centerfielder? I'm looking at the ESPN listing of MLB centerfielders' DWAR's and Duran's is second best at +1.9.

 

To me it is criminal to put Duran with all that speed in freaking left field, especially at Fenway Park. Think Manny Ramirez or, better still, Ted Williams.

 

As long as we don’t have Adrian Beltre steam rolling him, he’ll be fine…

[mvp 78]

Next year, fine, Rafaela in CF.

 

But this year his quickness and arm make him our best defensive SS--see yesterday's out from deep in the hole.

 

When will you ever agree that being fast afoot is actually an asset for a centerfielder? I'm looking at the ESPN listing of MLB centerfielders' DWAR's and Duran's is second best at +1.9.

 

To me it is criminal to put Duran with all that speed in freaking left field, especially at Fenway Park. Think Manny Ramirez or, better still, Ted Williams.

 

They have 81 games away from Fenway Park to win too.

 

The only change that you could make is put Rafaela in RF leave Duran in CF.

 

Sprint Speed:

 

Duran 29.5, 10th for CFers

 

Rafaela 28.8, 21st for CFers

[moonslav59]

I don't now if the Red Sox see it as an issue.

 

Devers and Casas don't have issues with splits. Anthony and Teel have been good in MiLB.

 

Duran, Hamilton, Abreu, Yoshida and Mayer have had their issues. Masa was good last year. Duran has been a little bit better than he was in the past. Abreu has a big split and they really avoid playing him against LHP. Mayer may get better, but split issues have been more of a concern as he's progressed in the minors.

 

I doubt we add any big bats, this winter. I could see us swapping a LHB like Abreu for his clone who bats RH'd, but even that is a long shot. (Better to trade for pitching, anyway.)

[Maxbialystock]

I doubt we add any big bats, this winter. I could see us swapping a LHB like Abreu for his clone who bats RH'd, but even that is a long shot. (Better to trade for pitching, anyway.)

 

I've been harping all season for righty bats and agree O'Neill is probably gone after this season. But I also agree the Sox need not add any big bats this winter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

She's a woman of many talents. CEO of the Boston Globe! From her Insta: producer, convener, ideator, adventurer. What can't she do?

 

Let CBOs sign enough good pitchers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They have 81 games away from Fenway Park to win too.

 

The only change that you could make is put Rafaela in RF leave Duran in CF.

 

Sprint Speed:

 

Duran 29.5, 10th for CFers

 

Rafaela 28.8, 21st for CFers

 

Speed doesn't go into slumps, and can outrun bad first steps. But for two guys that close in sprint speed, the one with the Jackie Bradley Jumps will always get to more wall balls and gappers, and make more diving grabs.

[moonslav59]

When you look at the league, these days, no team really jumps out as a clear favorite. The top 10 teams all have between 71 and 76 wins.

 

Although the Sox look "middle of the pack," and have the 13th best record in MLB, we only have 7 more losses than the best team in MLB. Think about that... just 7 losses.

 

Just a few breaks here and there, maybe just maybe...

 

I'm not going to whine and cry about injuries or missed opportunities or recent botched trades and signings, right now. I've done some before and may yet, again, but right now, no.

 

When I think about just 7 losses, it makes me think just how close we are and CAN BE, going forward. Every baseball fan with half a brain or more knows what this team needs.

 

The time is here. We need to fix the problem, or at least do everything we can possibly do to try and fix it. We have not seen that since the Price signing and Sale/Nate trades. It's been too long. Way too long.

[Randy Red Sox]

I doubt we add any big bats, this winter. I could see us swapping a LHB like Abreu for his clone who bats RH'd, but even that is a long shot. (Better to trade for pitching, anyway.)

 

sox will look for low cost-short term deals at all positions. this is the way John Henry rolls these days

[moonslav59]

sox will look for low cost-short term deals at all positions. this is the way John Henry rolls these days

 

I'm not sure this will last years and years, but I've given up expecting it will end, anytime soon.

 

(Expectations are different from hopes.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not sure this will last years and years, but I've given up expecting it will end, anytime soon.

 

(Expectations are different from hopes.)

 

John Henry is glad you're coming to his senses.

 

Why would any sports fans rooting for their favorite team ever expect them to try to win?

[moonslav59]

John Henry is glad you're coming to his senses.

 

Why would any sports fans rooting for their favorite team ever expect them to try to win?

 

I actually think they are trying to win... on a lower budget.

 

The guy did just start paying Devers the largest contract in Sox history by over $90M (Price.)

He paid over $100M for Yoshida, the year before and $140M to Story, the year before that.

We actually do spend enough or near enough to win, but we just won't spend on top pitchers.

 

And, when we do, we swing and miss or spend on the pen, not the rotation.

 

Largest pitching contracts since the Sale and Nate deals:

 

$55.0/6 Bello (extension)

$38.5/2 Gio

$36.0/3 Jansen

$18.9/2 Barnes (extension)

$18.8/4 Whitlock (extension)

$17.5/2 Martin

$10.0/1 Kluber

$10.0/1 Richards

$10.0/2 Paxton

$8M/2 Diekman

 

 

Add all these together and barely equal what we paid Story+Yoshi.

[Duran Is The Man]

When you look at the league, these days, no team really jumps out as a clear favorite. The top 10 teams all have between 71 and 76 wins.

 

Although the Sox look "middle of the pack," and have the 13th best record in MLB, we only have 7 more losses than the best team in MLB. Think about that... just 7 losses.

 

Just a few breaks here and there, maybe just maybe...

 

I'm not going to whine and cry about injuries or missed opportunities or recent botched trades and signings, right now. I've done some before and may yet, again, but right now, no.

 

When I think about just 7 losses, it makes me think just how close we are and CAN BE, going forward. Every baseball fan with half a brain or more knows what this team needs.

 

The time is here. We need to fix the problem, or at least do everything we can possibly do to try and fix it. We have not seen that since the Price signing and Sale/Nate trades. It's been too long. Way too long.

 

and i see Sale's 5.1 fWAR and wonder what could have been. :-(

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

and i see Sale's 5.1 fWAR and wonder what could have been. :-(

 

Amazing the turnaround that he has had this year.

[moonslav59]

and i see Sale's 5.1 fWAR and wonder what could have been. :-(

 

That 5.1 might equal all our FA SP'er signings total, over the last 2-4 years.

[jgar658]

When you look at the league, these days, no team really jumps out as a clear favorite. The top 10 teams all have between 71 and 76 wins.

 

Although the Sox look "middle of the pack," and have the 13th best record in MLB, we only have 7 more losses than the best team in MLB. Think about that... just 7 losses.

 

Just a few breaks here and there, maybe just maybe...

 

I'm not going to whine and cry about injuries or missed opportunities or recent botched trades and signings, right now. I've done some before and may yet, again, but right now, no.

 

When I think about just 7 losses, it makes me think just how close we are and CAN BE, going forward. Every baseball fan with half a brain or more knows what this team needs.

 

The time is here. We need to fix the problem, or at least do everything we can possibly do to try and fix it. We have not seen that since the Price signing and Sale/Nate trades. It's been too long. Way too long.

 

We lost more than seven games due to poor defense.

[moonslav59]

We lost more than seven games due to poor defense.

 

Sing to the choir director!

 

I do expect that to be significantly improved, next year, even without any roster additions.

 

Our corner IF and Catcher positions will still be weak, but we should be plus or PLUS at the other 5 positions.

 

Going even further ahead, all of our top 3 prospects plus Meidroth, the next ML-ready prospect are thought to be plus on D.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

 

Just a few breaks here and there, maybe just maybe...

 

I'm not going to whine and cry about injuries or missed opportunities or recent botched trades and signings, right now.

 

 

 

Can't just about every team in sports make the same claims aside from the true cellar dwellers?

[notin]

Amazing the turnaround that he has had this year.

 

Sale has 4.4 bWAR this so far this year. In 4 seasons since 2019, Sale accrued 2.6 bWAR for the Sox. Even when he did pitch for Boston, he simply was nowhere near this good. Last year, in 20 starts, he was worth 1.7 bWAR. This year, his 4.4 bWAR is in only 3 more starts…

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

Sale has 4.4 bWAR this so far this year. In 4 seasons since 2019, Sale accrued 2.6 bWAR for the Sox. Even when he did pitch for Boston, he simply was nowhere near this good. Last year, in 20 starts, he was worth 1.7 bWAR. This year, his 4.4 bWAR is in only 3 more starts…

 

Well, it's health and maybe a better pitching coach?

[Bellhorn04]

Well, it's health and maybe a better pitching coach?

 

Welcome aboard SS. How long have you been a Sox fan?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, it's health and maybe a better pitching coach?

 

Sale also has better weather, home cooking, and is finally stress-free from annual ring expectations of all the unreasonable fans and rabid media in New England.

[moonslav59]

Can't just about every team in sports make the same claims aside from the true cellar dwellers?

 

True. We are 7 more losses away from being bottom tier.

 

I do think we have a top 5 starting 9 line-up and 4 subs going into 2025.

 

Our pitching/defense prevents us from being top 5 overall.

[Randy Red Sox]

True. We are 7 more losses away from being bottom tier.

 

I do think we have a top 5 starting 9 line-up and 4 subs going into 2025.

 

Our pitching/defense prevents us from being top 5 overall.

 

P costs $$ that Henry refuses to part with

[Hugh2]

P costs $$ that Henry refuses to part with

 

What about hitting costs? does Henry refuses to part with money there too?

[moonslav59]

P costs $$ that Henry refuses to part with

 

He has spent a lot of money on non pitchers (Devers, Yoshi, Story) and RP'ers (Jansen, Martin, Barnes,) and very little on SP'ers.