A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

He was only 3.5M this year. That's not a big enough chunk of change to worry about moving midseason.

 

Agreed, but only if it doesn't mean we spend much less on pitching.

[jgar658]

At the onset of the season the Red Sox lost many games due to poor defense.

Now they are losing due to a poor bullpen.

The starting pitching got worse, but we continue to lose when the starting pitchers have a good outing.

Hitting is not a problem.

 

This team simply needs a front office that spends money on a quality bullpen. That is less costly than

looking for starters.

 

The defense has gotten much better and will continue to improve as Story comes back. There will be a surplus of hitters coming up from triple A in the next couple of years.

 

Is it possible to know how many games were lost due to errors and how many lost in the last two innings due to a poor bullpen?

 

BTW, last night Cora should have taken Sims out after facing the minimum three batters.

Edited August 20, 2024 by jgar658

[moonslav59]

At the onset of the season the Red Sox lost many games due to poor defense.

Now they are losing due to a poor bullpen.

The starting pitching got worse, but we continue to lose when the starting pitchers have a good outing.

Hitting is not a problem.

 

This team simply needs a front office that spends money on a quality bullpen. That is less costly than

looking for starters.

 

The defense has gotten much better and will continue to improve as Story comes back. There will be a surplus of hitters in the next couple of years.

 

Is it possible to know how many games were lost due to errors and how many lost in the last two innings due to a poor bullpen.

 

BTW, last night Cora should have taken Sims out after facing the minimum three batters.

 

I don't disagree. I will say, we are still losing games due to poor D as well as a poor pen.

 

Brez did try to stock the pen, last winter and at the deadline, but not many did well, and Slaten got hurt.

 

He added these guys and some were supposed to be okay to good:

Slaten

Weissert

I Campbell

Criswell (uses as a SP, a lot)

Hendriks

Booser

Horn

 

Deadline: Garcia & Sims

 

The Martin step back and Slaten injury really hurt, but you need to plan for that. I get it. Brez cam up short, here, too.

[Bellhorn04]

The starting pitching hasn't been that great either.

 

Other than the rotation, bullpen and defense, though, we're in great shape.

[notin]

Cubs released Hector Neris.

 

Neris has been problematic for the Cubs, especially in high leverage situations. But he’s still better than most of the Sox pen has been lately…

[mvp 78]

Cubs released Hector Neris.

 

Neris has been problematic for the Cubs, especially in high leverage situations. But he’s still better than most of the Sox pen has been lately…

 

There have been a few guys that have passed through waivers. Sox seem uninterested in churning through more arms.

[moonslav59]

The starting pitching hasn't been that great either.

 

Other than the rotation, bullpen and defense, though, we're in great shape.

 

I think the pen being so god-awful has forced Cora to stick with the starters longer than maybe he wanted to do.

 

It seems like many of our most recent starts looked good after 4 or 5 IP, then the wheels came off.

 

The D is looking almost as bad as in April.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the pen being so god-awful has forced Cora to stick with the starters longer than maybe he wanted to do.

 

It seems like many of our most recent starts looked good after 4 or 5 IP, then the wheels came off.

 

Which are not good starts.

[mvp 78]

Dom Smith released.

[vegasbob]

Dom Smith released.

 

Bring the Dom-inator back next ST since we need a LH bat to PH, or was it a RH bat ?? You never know with these personnel decisions

[moonslav59]

Which are not good starts.

 

True, but some, even when left in longer, were not all that bad:

 

Crawford

8/18 5.1 IP 3 ER (Horn let his runner score on an HR)

8/13 5.1 IP 4 ER (No hitter through 5 IP, then BOOM, and Booser let his runner score.) Had Crawford been yanked after 5, we'd have said it was a good GS.

 

Bello has had 7 straight okay to decent starts with no more than 3 ERs allowed.40.1 IP 3.57 ERA, but the 4.80 FIP suggests some luck.

 

Houck has gone 6 or more IP in 3 straight starts (2.41 ERA in 18.2 IP)

 

Pivetta has been up and down:

7IP 0ER

6.2 4ER (let up 2B and run in 7th)

6.0 0ER

2.2 7ER

6.2 3ER (2 HRs in the 6th)

4.2 2ER

5.0 3ER (HR in the 5th)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The starting pitching hasn't been that great either.

 

Other than the rotation, bullpen and defense, though, we're in great shape.

 

Yellow shirts still suck, too.

[moonslav59]

It's been fun watching two of MLB's top 11 FWAR players:

7. Duran 5.5

11. Devers 4.5

 

Other players giving us something to cheer for:

66. Abreu 2.5

82. O'Neill 2.2 (when healthy)

120. DHam 1.6 (especially the SBs)

140. Refsnyder 1.4 (not bad for a short side platoon player)

170. Yoshida 1.1

192. Rafaela 0.9 (hurt by the drag of poor SS D)

192. Wong 0.9

 

Our leading pitchers have fallen off a cliff, of late, but here they are:

10. Houck 3.6

90. Crawford & Jansen 1.4

95. Pivetta & Slaten 1.3

117. Bello & Criswell 1.1

175. Martin 0.7

225. Booser 0.5

250. Whit 0.4

275. Bern 0.3

 

[Old Red]

I think the pen being so god-awful has forced Cora to stick with the starters longer than maybe he wanted to do.

 

It seems like many of our most recent starts looked good after 4 or 5 IP, then the wheels came off.

 

The D is looking almost as bad as in April.

 

Interesting too that Brez two pickups for the BP at the trade deadline have pitched worse since coming to Boston than they were before.

[Randy Red Sox]

Grissom 0/5 in AAA tonight and now hitting a robust .226.

[moonslav59]

Grissom 0/5 in AAA tonight and now hitting a robust .226.

 

He won't be one of the two Sept call-ups.

[moonslav59]

This isn't going to be easy. MIN and KCR are both tied at 70-55, and showing no signs of taking their foot off the gas. We all can see they have a tough schedule coming up, and even play each other, at some point, but to get back into this race, we need to take care of our own business. Hopefully, tonight is the start of a run.

 

We are 4.5 GB KCR & MIN (4 in the loss column)

We are 7.5 GB BAL (6 losses)

We are 8.5 GB NYY (7 losses)

 

One game at a time!

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Through 125 team games, Jarren Duran has 153 hits, 68 XBH, and 31 stolen bases.

 

He is the only Red Sox player ever with 30+ steals, 65+ XBH, and 150+ hits through 125 games.

 

The last players to do that were Alfonso Soriano (2002), Alex Rodriguez (1998), and Willie Mays (1957).

 

These kinds of stats can be meaningless sometimes, but this is a little interesting.

[notin]

@SoxNotes

Through 125 team games, Jarren Duran has 153 hits, 68 XBH, and 31 stolen bases.

 

He is the only Red Sox player ever with 30+ steals, 65+ XBH, and 150+ hits through 125 games.

 

The last players to do that were Alfonso Soriano (2002), Alex Rodriguez (1998), and Willie Mays (1957).

 

These kinds of stats can be meaningless sometimes, but this is a little interesting.

 

In company with two (should be?) Hall of Famers…

[mvp 78]

In company with two (should be?) Hall of Famers…

 

I'm not sure Soriano should be in the HOF.

[vegasbob]

@SoxNotes

Through 125 team games, Jarren Duran has 153 hits, 68 XBH, and 31 stolen bases.

 

He is the only Red Sox player ever with 30+ steals, 65+ XBH, and 150+ hits through 125 games.

 

The last players to do that were Alfonso Soriano (2002), Alex Rodriguez (1998), and Willie Mays (1957).

 

These kinds of stats can be meaningless sometimes, but this is a little interesting.

 

It' s meaningful that he is disruptive when he puts the ball in play and gets on base. He sets the table with being RISP often .

[mvp 78]

It' s meaningful that he is disruptive when he puts the ball in play and gets on base. He sets the table with being RISP often .

 

For sure. I just think the player comparisons can be silly sometimes because of the quirkiness of the stats.

[moonslav59]

@SoxNotes

Through 125 team games, Jarren Duran has 153 hits, 68 XBH, and 31 stolen bases.

 

He is the only Red Sox player ever with 30+ steals, 65+ XBH, and 150+ hits through 125 games.

 

The last players to do that were Alfonso Soriano (2002), Alex Rodriguez (1998), and Willie Mays (1957).

 

These kinds of stats can be meaningless sometimes, but this is a little interesting.

 

It took my childhood hero, Tommy Harper, 154 games to hit 31 HRs, 70 XBHs and steal 38 bases back in 1970 (for the Brewers.) Later, he led the AL in SBs with 54 for the Sox in 1973. (He never hit more than 18 HRs or 45 XBHs in any other season.

 

At the time, Harper was just the second AL and 5th MLB player to do it. Now, there are 69 players.

 

Canseco had 42 HRs and 40 SBs in 1988, ARod 42 & 46 in '98 and Barry Bonds had 42 HRs and 40 SBs in 1996

 

Alfonso Soriano had 46-41 in 2006 and Acuna blew everyone away with 41-73 in 2023.

[notin]

I'm not sure Soriano should be in the HOF.

 

You’re only saying that because he has less career bWAR than Coco Crisp…

[mvp 78]

You’re only saying that because he has less career bWAR than Coco Crisp…

 

That's bait!

[Maxbialystock]

For sure. I just think the player comparisons can be silly sometimes because of the quirkiness of the stats.

 

Duran's WAR is now 7.3, 5th best in MLB. He is the driving force on this Sox team. He is the most valuable offensive and most valuable defensive player on the team. Now that he seems to be taking better routes, I think he's absolutely the best choice to play CF because that frees Rafaela to play SS, where I think he is clearly our best choice on defense. Any game in which Duran plays left field, especially left field at Fenway, is an unpardonable waste of talent.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela is a better CFer than Duran and a mediocre SS.

 

KC won a WS by having an OF with 3 CFers.

[moonslav59]

Duran's WAR is now 7.3, 5th best in MLB. He is the driving force on this Sox team. He is the most valuable offensive and most valuable defensive player on the team. Now that he seems to be taking better routes, I think he's absolutely the best choice to play CF because that frees Rafaela to play SS, where I think he is clearly our best choice on defense. Any game in which Duran plays left field, especially left field at Fenway, is an unpardonable waste of talent.

 

How is playing a sub par defensive SS at SS and perhaps the best defensive CF'er at SS not CF not unpardonable?

[Maxbialystock]

Back to 2024, the topic of this thread. I think the last two series, 4 @ Baltimore and 3 and Houston, are very encouraging. The split with the Orioles, tied for best team in the AL, was terrific, and taking 2/3 @ Houston was even better because the Sox bullpen, our biggest weakness, was fantastic last night and again today.

 

The #2 and #3 wild cards, KC and MN, are both playing at a 90 wins pace (.556 x 162 = 90). That's a pretty good standard for getting the wild card, but I think the Sox are capable of that. How so? Consider--

 

The Sox have 5 viable starters in Houck, Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, and Criswell (even though I thought Criswell was lucky as heck today).

 

Just maybe the bullpen is viable. I loved that K by Bernardino to get THE GREAT ALVAREZ with the bases loaded and 2 outs today.

 

The hitting is amazingly good, especially with Casas hitting like he did in April and despite Devers struggling this month. Sox are 4th in MLB in runs score and 3d in team OPS. With a whole bunch of no-names.

 

The fielding is better than earlier this season. In the Houston series, our defense was demonstrably better than theirs.

 

Best manager in MLB and one of the best pitching coaches. Between them they have compensated for an inexperienced CBO (who has done little to help the team) and an owner who no longer wants to underwrite a top 3 payroll.

[moonslav59]

Rafaela is a better CFer than Duran and a mediocre SS.

 

KC won a WS by having an OF with 3 CFers.

 

Agreed.

 

The only reason Rafaela is at SS is that DHam sucks there, and has been okay at 2B. Romy and Sogard are horrible at SS D.

 

I can see the reasoning in an emergency situation, but I hope they plan on Rafaela playing zero innings at SS, next year. That means doing more than counting on Story and Mayer to play a ton of innings: it means slotting someone else behind those two at SS and having DHam as the #2 2Bman behind whoever does not play SS out of Mayer & Story.

 

If there is another injury, they better have someone in the system or get one ASAP.