A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

Sale had a 2.1 fWAR last year BTW. The second highest fWAR in the Sox 2024 rotation is Crawford at 1.5.

[Old Red]

It’s one thing for blaming Breslow for his lack of action, but blaming him for not predicting an unlikely future gets silly.

 

Two years ago a story broke about Bloom being offered some nobody MuLB talent for Sale and the entire contract, and fans were mad for him turning it down. Damned if you do, I guess…

I don’t think anyone would have been upset two years ago if Bloom would have traded Sale, and the rest of his contract. Now what happened after that depends on what the Red Sox would have done with that money saved from that contract, and if they would have invested in more pitching, or not. What happened this year with Sale after finally trading him that have gotten fans upset is how everything has turned out, which is bad on all fronts for the Red Sox. I keep hearing the damned if you do comment, but the outcome of any move is how something is judged good, or bad.The here, and now first, and then the final outcome. Paying the Braves $17M of Sale’s contract wouldn’t be good to me no matter how everything works out.

Edited August 17, 2024 by Old Red

[notin]

I don’t think anyone would have been upset two years ago if Bloom would have traded Sale, and the rest of his contract. Now what happened after that depends on what the Red Sox would have done with that money saved from that contract, and if they would have invested in more pitching, or not. What happened this year with Sale after finally trading him that have gotten fans upset is how everything has turned out, which is bad on all fronts for the Red Sox. I keep hearing the damned if you do comment, but the outcome of any move is how something is graded. The here, and now first, and then the final outcome.

 

Let’s go with they didn’t spend the money they saved on Sale, because it is a realistic outcome…

[Bellhorn04]

They're damned if they do nothing about the rotation, and damned if they don't do anything!

[notin]

Sale had a 2.1 fWAR last year BTW. The second highest fWAR in the Sox 2024 rotation is Crawford at 1.5.

 

But how much of that was from before a shoulder injury?

 

2.1 fWAR isn’t a good season. He matched Steve Matz, a pitcher none of us would get erect nipples over if the Sox acquired him. And Sale didn’t even get that 2.1 fWAR without injuring his shoulder.

 

Sale did go all of 40 IP at the end of the season without injury. Of course, he did that in 2021 as well and followed it up with 5 IP in 2022.

 

I get why they moved him. They weren’t risking 2022 and the development of a relatively young staff on a pitcher who totaled 150 IP in the last 4 seasons. Sure a healthy Sale had a high ceiling, but how high should the Sox have counted on after 4 off-years and a 35th birthday?

 

Would you be happy with today’s worn out Sox staff if it was Sale instead of Giolito who went down for the season?

[Bellhorn04]

But how much of that was from before a shoulder injury?

 

2.1 fWAR isn’t a good season. He matched Steve Matz, a pitcher none of us would get erect nipples over if the Sox acquired him. And Sale didn’t even get that 2.1 fWAR without injuring his shoulder.

 

Sale did go all of 40 IP at the end of the season without injury. Of course, he did that in 2021 as well and followed it up with 5 IP in 2022.

 

I get why they moved him. They weren’t risking 2022 and the development of a relatively young staff on a pitcher who totaled 150 IP in the last 4 seasons. Sure a healthy Sale had a high ceiling, but how high should the Sox have counted on after 4 off-years and a 35th birthday?

 

Would you be happy with today’s worn out Sox staff if it was Sale instead of Giolito who went down for the season?

 

The only real point is, even a diminished and half-healthy Sale was better than the other crap we have!

 

I hated the Giolito signing too, as you know. I said I'd puke if they did it.

[Bellhorn04]

Furthermore, even if Giolito pitched well, his contract was structured so that he would probably opt out in that case.

 

WTF are they doing? It's anybody's guess at this point.

[notin]

The only real point is, even a diminished and half-healthy Sale was better than the other crap we have!

 

I hated Giolito signing too, as you know. I said I'd puke if they did it.

 

I think the one thing Giolito was good for was IP, which, when you have 3 starters who between them, have never had a season of 160 IP, makes sense. Sale has shown he cannot guarantee is IP…

[Bellhorn04]

I think the one thing Giolito was good for was IP, which, when you have 3 starters who between them, have never had a season of 160 IP, makes sense. Sale has shown he cannot guarantee is IP…

 

Giolito also had a 7 ERA over the last 2 months of 2023.

 

The idea must have been that Bailey would fix him, but Bailey's fix-it powers are starting to look a bit overrated.

[notin]

Furthermore, even if Giolito pitched well, his contract was structured so that he would probably opt out in that case.

 

WTF are they doing? It's anybody's guess at this point.

 

Use him for a year to help Houck, Crawford, Bello and move on.

 

I thought that option was OK. I assumed based on the amount, that it if he turned it down, the Sox knew they could make a Qualifying Offer and it would also be rejected…

[Bellhorn04]

IIRC the pre-season projected WARs for Sale and Giolito were just about identical. If the projections were right (which of course they never are, but at least they're objective), that means Breslow simply did nothing!

 

The kicker is that Grissom was also projected to have a 2 WAR or so. That would have sort of made it a win, but not for the rotation.

 

Just some really strange s*** going on with their thinking IMO.

Edited August 17, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

Giolito also had a 7 ERA over the last 2 months of 2023.

 

The idea must have been that Bailey would fix him, but Bailey's fix-it powers are starting to look a bit overrated.

 

 

The mystery of Giolito’s bad ending to last year might have been solved. It’s very common for a pitcher to struggle once before TJ. Look at Sale’s ending to 2019, for example…

[Bellhorn04]

Use him for a year to help Houck, Crawford, Bello and move on.

 

I thought that option was OK. I assumed based on the amount, that it if he turned it down, the Sox knew they could make a Qualifying Offer and it would also be rejected…

 

So you thought it was just more kicking the can down the road stuff.

[Old Red]

Giolito also had a 7 ERA over the last 2 months of 2023.

 

The idea must have been that Bailey would fix him, but Bailey's fix-it powers are starting to look a bit overrated.

 

I agree 100% on Bailey being overrated philosophy, or results early on. He’s been running a marathon out to the mound just like Busch did with pretty much the same results.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree 100% on Bailey being overrated philosophy, or results early on. He’s been running a marathon out to the mound just like Busch did with pretty much the same results.

 

"We just want you to throw the type of pitches you throw best, son."

 

"But coach, I have been throwing my best pitches, and they've hammering them!"

[Old Red]

"We just want you to throw the type of pitches you throw best, son."

 

"But coach, I have been throwing my best pitches, and they've hammering them!"

 

Going,Going, GONE!

[notin]

So you thought it was just more kicking the can down the road stuff.

 

Not necessarily.

 

I thought the Sox had 3 young pitchers they liked, but knew IP would be an issue. So they paired them with two (Italian?) innings eaters in Giolito and Pivetta, and hoped that formula didn’t lead to counting on the z bullpen for 700 innings or so…

[Bellhorn04]

Not necessarily.

 

I thought the Sox had 3 young pitchers they liked, but knew IP would be an issue. So they paired them with two (Italian?) innings eaters in Giolito and Pivetta, and hoped that formula didn’t lead to counting on the z bullpen for 700 innings or so…

 

But why not sign a pitcher that will be around for more than a year? It's not like we have a bunch of young studs waiting in the wings.

 

Plus it kind of looks like Crawford and Bello just aren't that good.

[notin]

But why not sign a pitcher that will be around for more than a year? It's not like we have a bunch of young studs waiting in the wings.

 

Plus it kind of looks like Crawford and Bello just aren't that good.

 

Do you think teams can try to win without making multi year offers to free agents?

 

The most likely/obvious reason for not signing a player to a multi year deal is they didn’t like the available options. Two of the best pitchers on the market last year were Snell and Montgomery, two pitchers NO TEAM was willing to meet the demands of.

 

And you’re wrong about Bello and Crawford. When they’re not worn down, they’re good. Not great, but good…

[Old Red]

Do you think teams can try to win without making multi year offers to free agents?

 

The most likely/obvious reason for not signing a player to a multi year deal is they didn’t like the available options. Two of the best pitchers on the market last year were Snell and Montgomery, two pitchers NO TEAM was willing to meet the demands of.

 

And you’re wrong about Bello and Crawford. When they’re not worn down, they’re good. Not great, but good…

 

I think the jury is still out on Houck, and Crawford. Houck bounced around before between the BP, and rotation, and lacked consistency. He also had some injuries to do with. Maybe he’s coming in to his own, but I want to see how he finishes out this year, and how he looks next year to judge either way.

[notin]

I think the jury is still out on Houck, and Crawford. Houck bounced around before between the BP, and rotation, and lacked consistency. He also had some injuries to do with. Maybe he’s coming in to his own, but I want to see how he finishes out this year, and how he looks next year to judge either way.

 

Houck has talent. That’s obvious.

 

Ditto Bello and Crawford. To me, it looks like sometimes fans ignore stamina/durability aspect of pitching and always look for other reasons pitchers struggle down the stretch (and in the postseason). “It’s the pitching coach.” “He’s a choker.”

 

The truth is the actions MLB pitchers go through hundreds of times a day are absolute torture on their arms, at least if you pitch from over the top and from 3/4. (Side arm guys are much better to their arms.)

 

I think these 3 pitchers are worn out now, but will be good for the Sox. I’m hoping Priester can join them…

[Bellhorn04]

Do you think teams can try to win without making multi year offers to free agents?

 

The most likely/obvious reason for not signing a player to a multi year deal is they didn’t like the available options. Two of the best pitchers on the market last year were Snell and Montgomery, two pitchers NO TEAM was willing to meet the demands of.

 

And you’re wrong about Bello and Crawford. When they’re not worn down, they’re good. Not great, but good…

 

Very much remains to be seen.

 

There's nothing especially impressive in the numbers for either.

Edited August 17, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[Old Red]

Houck has talent. That’s obvious.

 

Ditto Bello and Crawford. To me, it looks like sometimes fans ignore stamina/durability aspect of pitching and always look for other reasons pitchers struggle down the stretch (and in the postseason). “It’s the pitching coach.” “He’s a choker.”

 

The truth is the actions MLB pitchers go through hundreds of times a day are absolute torture on their arms, at least if you pitch from over the top and from 3/4. (Side arm guys are much better to their arms.)

 

I think these 3 pitchers are worn out now, but will be good for the Sox. I’m hoping Priester can join them…

They just don’t make them like they used to.

[Bellhorn04]

They just don’t make them like they used to.

 

Our pitchers seemed to start wearing down in May.

[mvp 78]

Our pitchers seemed to start wearing down in May.

 

Skill issue.

[moonslav59]

Imanaga is a clear-cut case of how stupid the Sox have become about signing pitchers. The Cubs got him for an EXTREMELY reasonable 4/53 guarantee. The Sox were reportedly very interested but would not go past 2 guaranteed years. It's kind of mind-boggling at this point.

 

Not many poster were high on Imanaga, even after we saw what the Cubs paid him.

 

I'm not bragging, here, because I also like Montgomery, but I was also super high on Imanaga ($53M/4 is a much less AAV than Gio) and Seth Lugo ($45M/3, which is just $7M more than Gio but with an extra year.) I do not recall having many posters agreeing on those two.

 

I also liked Sonny Gray, due to not needing a long term deal ($75M/3) and Wacha $32M/2.) I thought Flaherty at $14M/1 was a low risk, good deal.

 

Depth signings like Lorenzen at $4.5M/1 and others were discussed, as well.

[notin]

Not many poster were high on Imanaga, even after we saw what the Cubs paid him.

 

I'm not bragging, here, because I also like Montgomery, but I was also super high on Imanaga ($53M/4 is a much less AAV than Gio) and Seth Lugo ($45M/3, which is just $7M more than Gio but with an extra year.) I do not recall having many posters agreeing on those two.

 

I also liked Sonny Gray, due to not needing a long term deal ($75M/3) and Wacha $32M/2.) I thought Flaherty at $14M/1 was a low risk, good deal.

 

Depth signings like Lorenzen at $4.5M/1 and others were discussed, as well.

 

Passing on Imanaga because the Sox didn’t want to commit as many years might turn out to be the right choice.

 

But ignoring pitching depth altogether has been the problem. Once Hiolito and Whitlock went down (and how they didn’t even anticipate the possibility of Whitlock going down is another problem), they basically threw up their hands and said “f*** it. Just use the bullpen!”

[moonslav59]

Passing on Imanaga because the Sox didn’t want to commit as many years might turn out to be the right choice.

 

But ignoring pitching depth altogether has been the problem. Once Hiolito and Whitlock went down (and how they didn’t even anticipate the possibility of Whitlock going down is another problem), they basically threw up their hands and said “f*** it. Just use the bullpen!”

 

Oh, I understand why they passed on 4 years for Imanaga, and yes, it may end up being the right choice, as Shota turns 31 in just days, but $13M a year was a good risk-reward number..

 

I also understood the points many made here against the Lugo signing, as his history as a SP'er was short. I saw the lack of tons of IP as a plus, since the guy has excellent stuff. (He may turn out to be a meh signing, as well, but his deal was just 3 years long- one more than Gio's.)

 

The $14M for one year of Flaherty was no chump change, but yes, lower cost depth signings were there for the taking, and not adding any was a gross oversight by Brez or a super cheap greedy demand by JH.... maybe a little of both. Either way, that has to be the most inexplicable mistake made, this winter (in foresight.)

 

The Sale deal was clearly #1 in hindsight.

 

Spending on Gio and not others on my list and other lists is worthy of debate, as well. (I remember much of the talk was Gio vs Stroman.)

[moonslav59]

The schedule to Sept 1st:

 

BOS: 2 @BAL, 3@HOU, 3 ARI, 5 TOR, 3 @DET (then 3@NYM, 3 CWS, 3 BAL)

KCR: 2 @CIN, 3 LAA, 3 PHI, 4 @CLE, 4 @ HOU (then 3 CLE, 3 MIN, 3@NYY)

MIN: 2 @TEX, 3 @SDP, 3 STL, 3 ATL, 3 TOR (then 4@TBR, 3 @KCR, 3 LAA)

 

It looks like we may need to pass KCR by Mid September.

 

Catching MIN could happen closer to the end of the season, as MIN ends with:

4 @ CLE

3 @ BOS

3 MIA

3 BAL

 

(It may take a MIN sweep to do it.)

[Bellhorn04]

Not many poster were high on Imanaga, even after we saw what the Cubs paid him.

 

I'm not bragging, here, because I also like Montgomery, but I was also super high on Imanaga ($53M/4 is a much less AAV than Gio) and Seth Lugo ($45M/3, which is just $7M more than Gio but with an extra year.) I do not recall having many posters agreeing on those two.

 

Personally I don't care that much about what us posters say LOL