A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[notin]

Grady constantly ignored data that was presented to him. Theo met with him before the game and showed him the data that Pedro lost effectiveness after 105 pitches or so and had to be removed at that point.

 

It's covered in the book "Feeding the Monster" and I have the book, but am too lazy to dig it out right now.

 

I don’t need the proof beyond what you said.

 

Of course, Grady was also in a different status than Cora. Cora agrees with, assuming he flat out isn’t responsible for, the Sox analytical approach. I doubt the Sox have told him to use Cooper Criswell only in long relief mop up roles and instead just force the issue with Houck and Crawford. It’s possible (re:likely) Cora didn’t see Criswell as the solution I am proposing, and maybe he’s right. But that’s a different matter.

 

I can tell you this and I would be shocked if you disagreed - if Cora can recover from his cheating scandal and regain his position in Boston, be offered promotions, and receive the largest managerial extension in team history, he is absolutely not getting fired because he disagreed with Breslow or Bailey on how to use a 27yo minimum wage veteran pitcher in Cooper Criswell. I think it’s a safe bet Cora has some free rein there…

[Bellhorn04]

I can tell you this and I would be shocked if you disagreed - if Cora can recover from his cheating scandal and regain his position in Boston, be offered promotions, and receive the largest managerial extension in team history, he is absolutely not getting fired because he disagreed with Breslow or Bailey on how to use a 27yo minimum wage veteran pitcher in Cooper Criswell. I think it’s a safe bet Cora has some free rein there…

 

I just think "how to use Criswell for the next 2 months" has to have been a group decision thing.

 

He's not being paid much but he is a somewhat important figure in the pitching staff at this point.

[moonslav59]

I think it rather common for managers to do some things maybe the GM might disagree with, and not cause any major issues between the two.

 

Some GMs are probably more hand-off than others, when it comes to specific or even general philosophical suggestions.

 

When I hear comments like, "Cora played ______, to send a message to Brez," I cringe in disbelief.

 

Cora is out to win, but he also has to account for tomorrow's game, along the way. He is also privy to much more information, including health status, than any of us are. I am critical, at times, but I differ to Cora & Co., knowing they know a hell of a lot more than I do.

 

That's not to say mistakes aren't made, and I'm sure Cora (and Brez) would admit they make them. Overall, I think both have done a pretty good job with what they were given to work with.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it rather common for managers to do some things maybe the GM might disagree with, and not cause any major issues between the two.

 

Some GMs are probably more hand-off than others, when it comes to specific or even general philosophical suggestions.

 

When I hear comments like, "Cora played ______, to send a message to Brez," I cringe in disbelief.

 

Cora is out to win, but he also has to account for tomorrow's game, along the way. He is also privy to much more information, including health status, than any of us are. I am critical, at times, but I differ to Cora & Co., knowing they know a hell of a lot more than I do.

 

That's not to say mistakes aren't made, and I'm sure Cora (and Brez) would admit they make them. Overall, I think both have done a pretty good job with what they were given to work with.

 

Agree with all that.

 

What I question is that Cora would be the one solely charged with the decision to put Criswell in the rotation or the pen, to go to a 6 man rotation, stuff that impacts games over a period of weeks or months.

[moonslav59]

Agree with all that.

 

What I question is that Cora would be the one solely charged with the decision to put Criswell in the rotation or the pen, to go to a 6 man rotation, stuff that impacts games over a period of weeks or months.

 

I agree, this was likely a very important group discussion and maybe they came to a consensus decision. It's hard to know, for sure. I guess it is possible that Brez or even Brez & Bailey wanted Criswell to start, and Cora disagreed and decided to make him the "long guy," but who knows.

 

BTW, with this staff, we do need a key long guy (or more.)

[Maxbialystock]

Thanks, everyone, for the discussion on Criswell and Cora.

 

My take is that Cora is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't because right now there just aren't enough good arms to go around--in the rotation or in the bullpen.

 

Since the ASG break, the Sox have played 14 games, of which 2 were well-pitched--the 6-0 win over Colorado with Criswell starting and the 3-2 win over Seattle with Bello starting. We can almost include the 4-1 loss to the Dodgers because Pivetta went 6 scoreless innings and Kelly 1.1 before Bernardino destroyed that game.

 

The decision maker on Criswell must be Cora. He is the manager and therefore accountable for wins and losses. Others--Bailey, Varitek, even Breslow--no doubt provide input.

Edited August 4, 2024 by Maxbialystock

[Larry Cook]

I agree, this was likely a very important group discussion and maybe they came to a consensus decision. It's hard to know, for sure. I guess it is possible that Brez or even Brez & Bailey wanted Criswell to start, and Cora disagreed and decided to make him the "long guy," but who knows.

 

BTW, with this staff, we do need a key long guy (or more.)

 

We lack quality depth and that is Cora’s biggest concern for the rest of 2024. Houk and crawford are approaching their max innings and their stuff is getting soft and lacking bite. Paxton is throwing batting practice. These next two months are a lot of 7-5 and 9-8 games

[moonslav59]

We lack quality depth and that is Cora’s biggest concern for the rest of 2024. Houk and crawford are approaching their max innings and their stuff is getting soft and lacking bite. Paxton is throwing batting practice. These next two months are a lot of 7-5 and 9-8 games

 

No doubt.

[moonslav59]

Under the circumstances handed to Brez, and the grief he has gotten over the Sale trade, I do still applaud his efforts to improve the pitching staff and future of the pitching staff. Should he have done more with depth signings, including minor league deals? Yes, a resounding YES! Does that mean he should be given an F on building up the pitching staff from crap, just because Gio got hurt, Sale shocked the world, and he neglected to add enough rotational depth, this winter? I think not, and here is why. (I'm not saying he deserves an A or even a B.)

 

1. The data supports the claim:

ERA-

92 2024 (a big improvement over the 103 ERA- from '20 to '23)

93 2021

97 2019

100 2023

110 2022

120 2020

 

xFIP-

95 2024 (a big improvement over the 100 xFIP- from 2020-2023)

95 2021

96 2019

99 2023

104 2022

105 2020

 

SIERA

3.84 2024

3.98 2022

4.00 2021

4.10 2023

4.24 2019

4.67 2020

 

2. The improvement of the existing pitchers Brez inherited, thanks in part to the addition of Bailey to the FO team.

 

3. The addition of pitchers to the system, some of whom are still TBD:

Giolito (has 2025 to add some value)

Hendriks (may help in SEP '24 and 2025)

Slaten (looked very good, until his injury)

Criswell (has been a God send)

Weissert (off to a bad start, but has 4 years of control)

I Campbell (same as Weissert)

Booser (has been a successful "dumpster dive.")

Horn: TBD

Priester: TBD

Fulmer: TBD in 2025

Rentals: Paxton, Garcia, Sims & Keller (added in May)

 

Farm:

Sandlin

Fitts

Payton Tolle

Conrad Cason

Brandon Neely

Dalvinson Reyes

Brandon Clarke

Brady Tygart

Judice

 

I like what I see.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We lack quality depth and that is Cora’s biggest concern for the rest of 2024. Houk and crawford are approaching their max innings and their stuff is getting soft and lacking bite. Paxton is throwing batting practice. These next two months are a lot of 7-5 and 9-8 games

 

What a coincidence: this is also the biggest concern for 2025... but only for discerning fans (or is that disconcerting).

 

Sam in the mirror: "We're confident Criswell will be better than any other waiver wire acquisition we could add down the stretch -- not only as a long man out of the pen, but as a starter when Paxton breaks down by the end of the month."

[Randy Red Sox]

Under the circumstances handed to Brez, and the grief he has gotten over the Sale trade, I do still applaud his efforts to improve the pitching staff and future of the pitching staff. Should he have done more with depth signings, including minor league deals? Yes, a resounding YES! Does that mean he should be given an F on building up the pitching staff from crap, just because Gio got hurt, Sale shocked the world, and he neglected to add enough rotational depth, this winter? I think not, and here is why. (I'm not saying he deserves an A or even a B.)

 

1. The data supports the claim:

ERA-

92 2024 (a big improvement over the 103 ERA- from '20 to '23)

93 2021

97 2019

100 2023

110 2022

120 2020

 

xFIP-

95 2024 (a big improvement over the 100 xFIP- from 2020-2023)

95 2021

96 2019

99 2023

104 2022

105 2020

 

SIERA

3.84 2024

3.98 2022

4.00 2021

4.10 2023

4.24 2019

4.67 2020

 

2. The improvement of the existing pitchers Brez inherited, thanks in part to the addition of Bailey to the FO team.

 

3. The addition of pitchers to the system, some of whom are still TBD:

Giolito (has 2025 to add some value)

Hendriks (may help in SEP '24 and 2025)

Slaten (looked very good, until his injury)

Criswell (has been a God send)

Weissert (off to a bad start, but has 4 years of control)

I Campbell (same as Weissert)

Booser (has been a successful "dumpster dive.")

Horn: TBD

Priester: TBD

Fulmer: TBD in 2025

Rentals: Paxton, Garcia, Sims & Keller (added in May)

 

Farm:

Sandlin

Fitts

Payton Tolle

Conrad Cason

Brandon Neely

Dalvinson Reyes

Brandon Clarke

Brady Tygart

Judice

 

I like what I see.

 

 

i dont see any of the those guys becoming more than #4-5 SP

[moonslav59]

i dont see any of the those guys becoming more than #4-5 SP

 

Probably so. That does not mean improvements weren't made for the budget and situation he was placed in.

 

It does look like some help for the pen and rotational depth for 2025 and beyond.

 

We will need some major moves made, this winter, as we lose Pivetta, Jansen, Martin, the rentals and more.

 

I hope we don't look at the returns of Giolito, Whitlock, Hendriks, Fulmer, Murphy and better health or production from Slaten, Weissert, ICampbell & others as major solutions to what we need, going forward.

[notin]

I just think "how to use Criswell for the next 2 months" has to have been a group decision thing.

 

He's not being paid much but he is a somewhat important figure in the pitching staff at this point.

 

But every analytic and tradtional stat would support getting him involved in the rotation in some capacity. The only real argument against using Criswell in either manner I proposed is that it might overwork the now-7 man bullpen.

[moonslav59]

What a coincidence: this is also the biggest concern for 2025... but only for discerning fans (or is that disconcerting).

 

Sam in the mirror: "We're confident Criswell will be better than any other waiver wire acquisition we could add down the stretch -- not only as a long man out of the pen, but as a starter when Paxton breaks down by the end of the month."

 

It has been our major concern, since not bringing back or replacing Kimbrel & Kelly back in 2019. One could argue we needed to add rotational depth in 2019, too, but that looks more like hindsight speculation.

 

It's always about pitching.

[notin]

i dont see any of the those guys becoming more than #4-5 SP

 

A 4-5 would be OK.

[moonslav59]

A 4-5 would be OK.

 

We could sure use 5 SP'ers rated as 4/5's, right now.

[moonslav59]

There are 270 batters with 220+ PAs in 2024 (30 teams x 9 batters per team.)

 

Here are the OPS leaders and where Sox players rank:

 

1.154 Judge

1.027 Ohtani

1.021 Soto

.994 Devers (#4)

14. Refsnyder .909

16. O'Neill .900 (only team with 3 in top 20)

29. Duran .853 (only team with 4 in top 30)

39. Abreu .833

51. Wong .809 (only 37 batters have more PAs and a higher OPS than Wong)

 

[Nick]

It seems the Twins have more difficult schedule than the Royals.

 

They play the Guardians 7 times, the Orioles 3 times, Padres 3 times and the Braves 3 times. We also play them 3 times.

 

We're 1 back in the loss column from the Royals and 3 from the Twins.

[moonslav59]

It seems that many of the best teams in MLB by record are losing more than winning, since July 1st, but the teams we need to lose: KCR, MIN and HOU/SEA are winning more than losing.

[moonslav59]

Remaining Games:

 

BOS: 7 BAL, 4 NYY, 3 MIN, 3 KCR, 3 NYM, 6 HOU, 3 ARI, 6 TBR, 3 TEX, 8 TOR, 3 DET, 3 CHW

 

KCR: 7 CLE, 3 PHI, 3 NYY, 3 ATL, 6 MIN, 3 BOS, 4 HOU, 2 STL,3 SFG, 3 PIT, 3 CIN, 3 LAA, 3 WSH, 3 DET

 

MIN: 8 CLE, 3 BAL, 6 KCR, 3 ATL, 3 BOS, 3 SDP, 3 STL, 3 CHC, 4 TBR, 3 CIN, 3 TOR, 4 TEX, 3 LAA, 3 MIA

 

[moonslav59]

Remaining Games:

 

BOS: 7 BAL, 4 NYY, 3 MIN, 3 KCR, 3 NYM, 6 HOU, 3 ARI, 6 TBR, 3 TEX, 8 TOR, 3 DET, 3 CHW

 

KCR: 7 CLE, 3 PHI, 3 NYY, 3 ATL, 6 MIN, 3 BOS, 4 HOU, 2 STL,3 SFG, 3 PIT, 3 CIN, 3 LAA, 3 WSH, 3 DET

 

MIN: 8 CLE, 3 BAL, 6 KCR, 3 ATL, 3 BOS, 3 SDP, 3 STL, 3 CHC, 4 TBR, 3 CIN, 3 TOR, 4 TEX, 3 LAA, 3 MIA

 

 

The Yanks won, so we gained on nobody, except HOU & SEA.

 

The Red color denotes a top 10 team, while the Blue is 11-20th.

 

The Sox play 17 Red & 18 Blue with 17 Black (bottom third.)

The KCR play 25 Red & 15 Blue with 9 Black.

The MIN play 23 Red & 13 Blue with 13 Black.

 

 

[moonslav59]

It seems like everyday, 2-3 different players see massive jumps in their OPS.

 

Today, DHam got back over .700, making our line-up all over .700, no matter who starts. (Jansen w Sox only.)

 

Duran jumped to .870, and Abreu jumped to .856.

 

Ref dropped to 20th best in MLB OPS (players over 220 PAs.)

Duran moved up to 25th.

Abreu moved up to 30th, making the Sox the only team with 5 players in the top 30.

 

The team also passed the Yanks for second in team OPS at .772, and we are just .002 behind BAL. We are 5th in runs scored, but have played 2-3 less games than the top 4 teams.

 

The Sox place...

 

1st in 2Bs

2nd in TBs

2nd in BA (.002 behind SDP.)

2nd in SLG (.010 behind BAL)

T2nd in 3Bs

5th in OBP (.002 behind ARI.)

6th in SBs (2 behind PHI.)

6th in HRs (2 behind NYM)

[notin]

Remaining Games:

 

BOS: 7 BAL, 4 NYY, 3 MIN, 3 KCR, 3 NYM, 6 HOU, 3 ARI, 6 TBR, 3 TEX, 8 TOR, 3 DET, 3 CHW

 

KCR: 7 CLE, 3 PHI, 3 NYY, 3 ATL, 6 MIN, 3 BOS, 4 HOU, 2 STL,3 SFG, 3 PIT, 3 CIN, 3 LAA, 3 WSH, 3 DET

 

MIN: 8 CLE, 3 BAL, 6 KCR, 3 ATL, 3 BOS, 3 SDP, 3 STL, 3 CHC, 4 TBR, 3 CIN, 3 TOR, 4 TEX, 3 LAA, 3 MIA

 

 

Great. So we get the White Sox when their losing streak reaches 66 games and they’re finally due for a win…

[moonslav59]

Great. So we get the White Sox when their losing streak reaches 66 games and they’re finally due for a win…

 

The big thing we need to do is beat KCR and MIN, 2 out of 3, and then watch them play 6 vs each other.

 

If we just keep winning series, we should be okay.

 

Thanks to that rainout, we play a rare 5 game series vs TOR (in 4 days.)

[Duran Is The Man]

great. So we get the white sox when their losing streak reaches 66 games and they’re finally due for a win…

 

lololololol

[Randy Red Sox]

A 4-5 would be OK.

have enough of those already

 

sewer

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We could sure use 5 SP'ers rated as 4/5's, right now.

 

Five guys rated as high as NUMBER 45?

 

... wait, your slash signifies a fraction... so 4/5 = 80%.

 

Yup, at this point I'd even take five guys that are 80% of Pedro... from the 2004 Curse-Breakers (and I don't mean Astacio).

[notin]

have enough of those already

 

sewer

 

No, we don’t…

[Randy Red Sox]

No, we don’t…

 

every SP save for Houck [who is a #3 IMO} are 4-5 types. what we need is a true #1 and 2 SP

[mvp 78]

every SP save for Houck [who is a #3 IMO} are 4-5 types. what we need is a true #1 and 2 SP

 

Bello has started to turn his season around. I think he's probably a solid #3, but had some outings really get away from him this year and he needs to just figure it out next season. Houck is a 3 that can have stretches where he pitches like an ace. That's basically Nathan Eovaldi IMO. There aren't many true aces hanging around these days that don't have serious injury concerns. Burnes, Fried, Buehler this offseason? It's not like the farm system has a ton of high octane arms marching through the org right now.