A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

The lack of depth has been exposed

 

Some felt Houck was the 6th starter, and Criswell was maybe the 7th or 8th SP'er on the SP'er depth chart. If this is true, our top 5 failed more than out depth.

 

Gio: out

Bello: worst SP'er, this year

Pivetta: inconsistent

Crawford: pretty good

Whitlock: 4 starts then out for year

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder is sure proving he belongs!

 

This is the third year in a row, he has been excellent vs LHPs.

 

Only 15 batter in all of MLB have more PAs in the last 3 years v LHPs and a higher OPS. (And this was before tonight!)

[moonslav59]

Injury update (per MLB.com):

 

Hendriks: expected to throw three live batting practice sessions, the first of which is scheduled for Tuesday in either Kansas City or at Triple-A Worcester. If he makes it through those three sessions without any setbacks, Hendriks will then start a Minor League rehab assignment with hopes of being in Boston's bullpen at some point in September.

 

O'Neill: was not in the lineup on Saturday against Cody Bradford due to an illness that could keep him out of the lineup until Wednesday's finale of a three-game series against the Royals.

 

Martin: Martin threw a 35-pitch bullpen session on Aug. 3, and is expected to make a Minor League rehab appearance on Aug. 7, which should position him for a return to the active roster on Aug. 9.

 

Slaten: will extend his long toss progression to 120 feet on Aug. 5. "He turned the corner this week," said Red Sox manager Alex Cora.

 

Grissom: continued his Minor League rehab assignment on Aug. 3, driving in two runs for Triple-A Worcester. His assignment expires on Aug. 8, at which time he will either be activated by the Red Sox or optioned to Worcester.

 

Casas: looked strong in his return to action on Aug. 3, drilling a double as part of a three-RBI performance. It remains to be seen how long Casas will need for his rehab assignment.

 

Story: Alex Cora was recently encouraged when he watched Story hit soft toss, and hasn't ruled out the possibility of the shortstop returning late in the season.

 

Mata" placed on 60 Day IL. Once Mata is healthy, the Red Sox will have to activate him or designate him for assignment.

 

Whitlock: Whitlock will not pitch again until some point in 2025 after he had his UCL repaired by Dr. Jeffrey Dugas in Birmingham, Ala., on May 30. On the bright side, the righty avoided Tommy John surgery and instead underwent an internal brace repair, a procedure that has become more frequent for pitchers with UCL injuries.

 

Murphy: underwent successful reconstruction of the left ulnar collateral ligament (elbow). Dr. Keith Meister performed the surgery at Texas Metroplex Institute for Sports Medicine & Orthopedic Surgery in Arlington.

 

Giolito: was moved to the 60-day injured list on March 24. He underwent surgery to repair his right elbow ulnar collateral ligament on March 12 after two Grapefruit League starts (4 1/3 innings).

 

Looks like we might start getting some help, soon and later this month into September.

 

When Casas is ready, it's a no-brainer. He becomes the starting 1Bman, and My guess is Romy is demoted or Smith DFA'd.

 

When Martin returns, he will likely work his way up to high leverage situations as soon as he shows he can do it. (Slaten, too.) Hendriks will likely need time to work into an important 2024 role, and I'm not sure there is enough. Surely, he will get a chance, if there are no setbacks.

 

The Grissom situation is hard to predict. He has options, so we don't need to call him up, when he is ready, but my guess is he will, as long as he looks healthy.

 

Assuming Casas, Martin, Slaten, Hendriks and Grissom all get healthy, could this be our 26 man roster by September?

 

SP: Houck, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello, Crawford

RP: Jansen, Martin, Garcia, Slaten, Sims, Criswell, Wink, Hendriks

(to AAA: Kelly, Bernardino, Booser)

 

C: Wong & Jansen

1B: Casas & Smith

2B: DHam-Grissom

3B: Devers

SS: Rafaela (& DHam)

LF: O'Neill-Refsnyder

CF: Duran (Rafaela)

RF: Abreu-O'Neill

DH: Yoshida

 

Line up:

v RHP

1. L Duran CF

2. L Abreu RF

3. R O'Neill LF

4. L Devers 3B

5. L Casas 1B

6. L Yoshida DH

7. R Wong C

8. L DHam 2B

9. R Rafaela SS

 

vs LHPs

1. L Duran CF

2. R Refsnyder LF

3. R O'Neill RF

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Wong C

6. L Casas 1B

7. L Yoshida DH

8. R Grissom 2B

9. R Rafaela SS

 

(Romy & Sogard to AAA)

 

Edited August 4, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Leaders:

.996 Devers (424 is second most PAs on team)

.909 Refsnyder (224 is 10th most)

.901 O'Neill (342 is 4th most on team)

 

.857 Casas (90)

.854 Duran 509 is the most on team)

.830 Abreu (287 is 6th most on team)

.809 Wong (325 is 5th most on team)

 

.756 Romy (114)

.722 Yoshida (243)

.720 Smith (247)

.712 Rafaela (407 is 3rd most)

 

.678 DHam (247)

(1.083 Jansen w Sox in 12 PAs)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Injury update (per MLB.com):

 

Grissom: continued his Minor League rehab assignment on Aug. 3, driving in two runs for Triple-A Worcester. His assignment expires on Aug. 8, at which time he will either be activated by the Red Sox or optioned to Worcester.

 

Casas: looked strong in his return to action on Aug. 3, drilling a double as part of a three-RBI performance. It remains to be seen how long Casas will need for his rehab assignment.

 

 

Was at Saturday's Woo game, sat behind home plate, watched these guys carefully.

 

Both took deliberate approaches in their at bats. DH Casas and second baseman Grissom, batting second and third (behind Meidroth), each struck out swinging in their first looks vs. ex-big leaguer Aaron Sanchez. Then they adjusted. Griz drilled two opposite-field line drives that were caught, one just in front of the 370-foot mark at the wall. Later in a key AB, he challenged a 1-0 strike call and won; with the count now 2-0 in his favor, Griz bounced a two-run single up the middle. He also stole second, and when the throw got away, sprinted safely to third with a head-first slide. He also made routine plays in the field, including starting a 4-6-3 DP.

 

Casas had an RBI-single up the middle to the right of the bag, flew out to left field, and then blasted a bases-loaded double off the fence in left-center.

 

Grissom looks ready for Boston. With Casas, it remains to be seen; he didn't pull a pitch all day, and it's unclear if his oppo swings were in preparation for aiming at the Green Monster or easing the pain of a tender core. Even if it's both, that's not a bad thing... as long as he and the org are honest with each other.

[Bellhorn04]

In a stunning development, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford really look tired...

[Bellhorn04]

The offseason chickens (not doing enough about the rotation) are coming home to roost.

[Bellhorn04]

It's impossible for this team to have any momentum now, because Weaver was right (as he generally was) when he said momentum is the next day's starting pitcher.

[Old Red]

The offseason chickens (not doing enough about the rotation) are coming home to roost.

 

It just took a while to get there.

[notin]

In a stunning development, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford really look tired...

 

They need to work Criswell into the rotation. Either as a sixth starter or as the occasional replacement for Houck and Crawford…

[Bellhorn04]

They need to work Criswell into the rotation. Either as a sixth starter or as the occasional replacement for Houck and Crawford…

 

I don't disagree, but at this point it sounds a little like moving to a different deck chair on the Titanic.

 

We don't know if Houck or Crawford are going to benefit from extra days off or not. They're in uncharted territory either way.

 

As Criswell keeps putting up zeroes, though, it does seem weird not to give him some more starts.

[Bellhorn04]

Seems like they decided they desperately needed a reliever that could pitch 3 inning stints, and Criswell is that guy.

[notin]

I don't disagree, but at this point it sounds a little like moving to a different deck chair on the Titanic.

 

We don't know if Houck or Crawford are going to benefit from extra days off or not. They're in uncharted territory either way.

 

As Criswell keeps putting up zeroes, though, it does seem weird not to give him some more starts.

 

 

Not knowing the solution isn’t the same thing as “re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.” If the pitchers are tired, more rest is good; the only question is whether or not it’s sufficient.

 

They have Criswell to help solve/mitigate this problem. They need to use him. And if they don’t do anything but plow forward as if there is no concern, then Cora’s judgment should be seriously questioned here…

[notin]

Seems like they decided they desperately needed a reliever that could pitch 3 inning stints, and Criswell is that guy.

 

You keep saying “they.” The use of Criswell largely rests on the decisions made by one guy.

 

If they keep using Criswell as a mop up reliever and let the rotation plow forward as is, that actually isn’t on Henry…

[Bellhorn04]

You keep saying “they.” The use of Criswell largely rests on the decisions made by one guy.

 

If they keep using Criswell as a mop up reliever and let the rotation plow forward as is, that actually isn’t on Henry…

 

In this case "they" was supposed to refer to the PBT (Pitching Brain Trust) - Bailey, Cora, Breslow, whoever else is involved in these decisions.

 

Henry is never just an innocent bystander, though.

[notin]

In this case "they" was supposed to refer to the PBT (Pitching Brain Trust) - Bailey, Cora, Breslow, whoever else is involved in these decisions.

 

Henry is never just an innocent bystander, though.

 

I think how Criswell gets used ultimately comes down to Cora and Cora alone…

[Old Red]

In this case "they" was supposed to refer to the PBT (Pitching Brain Trust) - Bailey, Cora, Breslow, whoever else is involved in these decisions.

 

Henry is never just an innocent bystander, though.

 

I agree. Who sent Wink down to Woo? Who sent Criswell back to Woo? I don’t think those moves was just a Cora decision at all.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree. Who sent Wink down to Woo? Who sent Criswell back to Woo? I don’t think those moves was just a Cora decision at all.

 

Yeah, I have to think Bailey and Breslow also have a lot of say in these moves.

[notin]

Yeah, I have to think Bailey and Breslow also have a lot of say in these moves.

 

I think Bailey offers advice. It’s up to Cora to evaluate said advice and act accordingly.

 

If Cora wanted Criswell in the rotation, he’d be in the rotation regardless of Bailey’s opinion.

 

Also who thought using Criswell in the rotation would be the Hot August Topic back when Cooper’s original signing failed to impress anyone?

[notin]

Yeah, I have to think Bailey and Breslow also have a lot of say in these moves.

 

Breslow makes those decisions, presumably with input from Cora and Bailey and possibly others. But in-game usage of a player? Especially a non-investment like Cooper Criswell? I think Cora has full autonomy there…

[Bellhorn04]

Breslow makes those decisions, presumably with input from Cora and Bailey and possibly others. But in-game usage of a player? Especially a non-investment like Cooper Criswell? I think Cora has full autonomy there…

 

But this is about in-game usage over a period of weeks or months. It's about what they think is the best way to utilize Criswell the rest of the way, game in and game out. It's about a plan, not a decision in one game.

Edited August 4, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[Old Red]

Yeah, I have to think Bailey and Breslow also have a lot of say in these moves.

 

If the Red Sox thought Criswell was the answer they wouldn’t have sent him back to Woo, and added Paxton after Criswell came back. I don’t know if Paxton is much of an improvement at this late point of the season though.

[Bellhorn04]

What happens to Sox managers who ignore directives from above and make in-game decisions based on their own hunches?

 

See Little, Grady.

[moonslav59]

It's impossible for this team to have any momentum now, because Weaver was right (as he generally was) when he said momentum is the next day's starting pitcher.

 

Another popular (non-Weaver) saying is that "a SP'er is only as good as his last start." That is scary as hell!

[Bellhorn04]

Another popular (non-Weaver) saying is that "a SP'er is only as good as his last start." That is scary as hell!

 

That one is pretty questionable LOL

[notin]

What happens to Sox managers who ignore directives from above and make in-game decisions based on their own hunches?

 

See Little, Grady.

 

Elaborate. What “directive from above” did Grady Little ignore?

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I have to think Bailey and Breslow also have a lot of say in these moves.

 

Criswell was hurt and rehabbed at Woo.

 

Wink was apparently not following the coaches plan and was demoted for it, but I'm not so sure this was the reason or only reason.

 

We have Martin, Slaten and Hendriks due back, soon, unless they have a setback. This may or may not help. One has to think, they can't be much worse than what we have, now, but when you consider we added Paxton, Garcia and Sims, this totals 6 pitchers on a 13 man pitching staff. Their additions could be a big help, a minor help or more of the same.

 

On paper, they look better than ...

Anderson

Weissert

Keller, Horn, Wingenter, YRam and others.

 

It's hard to imagine that 3-4 or more of these 6 additions cannot do better than this:

Last 28 Days' Numbers (listed in order of most IP)

4.97 Bello

4.97 Crawford

5.09 Houck

5.73 Pivetta

5.00 Kelly

6.75 Jansen

5.14 Wink

4.50 Anderson

10.13 Bernardino

11.81 Horn

27.00 Wingenter

13.50 Y Ramirez

 

Not listed (IP rank)

5. Criswell 2.84

6. Weissert 3.86 (demoted)

10. Booser 1.50

[moonslav59]

That one is pretty questionable LOL

 

Unless a pitcher has been lights out all year and has one bad game, usually a real bad game does make me worry about the next start, and vice versa: a really good last game often brings hope a pitcher is "getting it together," except of course, with Pivetta.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Veteran left-hander Lucas Luetge has opted out of his minor league deal with the Red Sox and become a free agent

[Bellhorn04]

Elaborate. What “directive from above” did Grady Little ignore?

 

Grady constantly ignored data that was presented to him. Theo met with him before that game and showed him the data that Pedro lost effectiveness after 105 pitches or so and had to be removed at that point no matter what the game siutuation.

 

It's covered in the book "Feeding the Monster" and I have the book, but am too lazy to dig it out right now.