A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Duran Is The Man]

And they built their rotation on

 

Bello - young and unproven

Houck - never pitched a full season as a starter

Kutter - never pitched a full season as a starter

Whitlock - injury risk and never pitched a full season as a starter

Pivetta - 5th starter history with mild upside

Giolito - workhorse who pitched like dogshit at the end of last season

 

Without in-season replacements, it was easy to see how this could turn into a house of cards at some point after a hot start.

 

trevor bauer

[moonslav59]

This was our top ten at the deadline in 2022.

 

Tristan Casas

Marcelo Mayer

Bryan Bello

Nick Yorke

Brandon Walter

Bryan Mata

Miguel Bleis

Ceddanne Rafaela

Josh Winckoswski

Chris Murphy

 

 

If they really wanted to, they could had any starting pitcher on the market if they went to a team and said "take any 3 (or4) from that group you want"

 

Weak farm system doesn't mean no farm system. And even weakened farm systems can still have a few blue chip prospects at the top.

 

The top 6-7 is way better now, AND I do not think they felt we were one SP'er away from being a top contender, despite the 2021 results.

 

Just my opinion.

 

I'm thinking the "plan," if we can call a sham a plan, was always about 2025 or maybe even 2026. Why trade for a TOTR SP in 2022, 3-4 years ahead of the window?

 

(Note: I wish we added a top SP'er every year.)

[Hugh2]

The top 6-7 is way better now, AND I do not think they felt we were one SP'er away from being a top contender, despite the 2021 results.

 

Just my opinion.

 

I'm thinking the "plan," if we can call a sham a plan, was always about 2025 or maybe even 2026. Why trade for a TOTR SP in 2022, 3-4 years ahead of the window?

 

(Note: I wish we added a top SP'er every year.)

 

agreed, that’s why they didn’t do it. But even in a weaker system they had the ammunition to pull a trade if they wanted to.

[moonslav59]

agreed, that’s why they didn’t do it. But even in a weaker system they had the ammunition to pull a trade if they wanted to.

 

No doubt.

 

I keep thinking they have intentionally waited for the big splurge, until everything was lined up, just right. Now I'm not so sure.

 

I'll believe it when I see it, but that should not be taken as me thinking it will happen, someday, anytime soon or ever.

 

"How Soon is Now" has been my feeling for a while, now.

 

To me, the team is "lined up," now. We have a solid 13 going into 2025 without even counting the ML ready or near ML top prospects. We are actually overloaded with everyday talent for 2025 and 2016 and should use it.

 

While our pitching looks awful, right now, I do think some pitchers took strides and can be pencilled into some key roles for 2025 and 2026 or beyond. That being said, to me, we clearly have some major holes- and I mean MAJOR!

 

We need an ace.

We'll need a closer and a top set-up man.

We'll need another solid SP'er and more SP'er depth. I'm thinking 4 pitchers is minimum, afterall, we need to replace Jansen, Martin and Pivetta. Adding just 4 barely replaces what we lost. More likely, we need 5 solid pitchers to join what we bring back, and hopefully some of the guys we bring back can be in less important roles.

 

SP 1 ____

SP 2 Houck

SP3 ____

SP4 Giolito

SP5 Crawford

SP6 Bello

SP 7 Criswell/Priester/Wink/Fitts/Dobbins

 

Closer ____

Set Up ____

RP 3 Hendriks

RP 4 Slaten

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Kelly

RP7 Bernardino

RP8 Booser/Fulmer/Mata/Weissert/ICampbell/Horn

 

When you look at the ML and near ML ready prospects, they seem to line-up very well with out expected needs with several players "left over."

 

Refsnyder, our best batter vs LHPs is under control through 2025, and RHB Campbell should be ready by 2026. RHB Jh Garcia should be ready by 2026. The Abreu-Ref platoon looks fine for one OF slot in 2025. Duran and Rafaela cover the other two. Anthony is surplus, or he could fill in, if we trade Abreu or Rafaela.

 

I know many look at how awful our middle IF has been for over 5 years, and I can't disagree: it's been god-awful. This year's numbers don't look great, either, but I see a major improvement coming, and the last 6-8 weeks has already shown an improvement on what we have seen since losing Bogey (and Story to injury.) I know counting on Story is like expecting Sale to have a big year, err... wait!

 

I realize we cannot count on Story for 2025 and certainly not beyond, but he is one of the many that can be used to fill the slots, adequately, if not very well. While I do not think we can afford to trade Mayer, due to the doubts on Story, I do feel a lot better about our depth than before, this year.

 

SS: Story or Mayer, Romy-DHam

2B: Story or Grissom, Romy-DHam (Campbell, Meidroth)

 

I do think if Mayer got us a TOTR pitcher, we could absorb the loss at middle IF.

 

I am not one to think trading the best catching prospect we've had in 50 years is a good idea, even if we were certain Wong can continue like this.

 

Teams want ML ready prospects, nit guys like Cespedes, Arias and Bleis. It has to be Anthony or Mayer to get anything close to what I'm thinking. I hope it doesn't take both. It will likely take something like Anthony, Meidroth, Valdez and Fiits for the type of return I want.

 

 

[moonslav59]

So, ...

 

Casas is rehabbing in AAA and may just be days away from a call-up.

 

O'Neill may return Aug 15th.

 

Slaten has been cleared to throw 120 feet. ESPN lists Aug 16th as Est return, but I doubt that.

 

Hendriks will face live batters on Saturday. His ETA is around Sept 1st.

 

Not sure how much we can count on from these guys, but maybe we catch lightening...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

We need an ace.

We'll need a closer and a top set-up man.

We'll need another solid SP'er and more SP'er depth. I'm thinking 4 pitchers is minimum, afterall, we need to replace Jansen, Martin and Pivetta. Adding just 4 barely replaces what we lost. More likely, we need 5 solid pitchers to join what we bring back, and hopefully some of the guys we bring back can be in less important roles.

 

SP 1 ____

SP 2 Houck

SP3 ____

SP4 Giolito

SP5 Crawford

SP6 Bello

SP 7 Criswell/Priester/Wink/Fitts/Dobbins

 

Closer ____

Set Up ____

RP 3 Hendriks

RP 4 Slaten

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Kelly

RP7 Bernardino

RP8 Booser/Fulmer/Mata/Weissert/ICampbell/Horn

 

 

 

How many realistic forum members and lurkers suspect the front office will just fill in your blanks by merely moving up the names already on these lists?

[Hugh2]

How many realistic forum members and lurkers suspect the front office will just fill in your blanks by merely moving up the names already on these lists?

 

I think you will see some of that, but they're not going sit by and make no moves. Even in the most crappy, worse played off season the Sox went out and got guys......we just didn't like those guys.

 

For the first time in a long time we might be simultaneously coming off of a winning season AND have been under the luxury tax. If they don't spend this offseason they will literally have exhausted every excuse they have.

[Bellhorn04]

I think you will see some of that, but they're not going sit by and make no moves. Even in the most crappy, worse played off season the Sox went out and got guys......we just didn't like those guys.

 

The last two years they went out and got Kluber and Giolito while dealing Sale. Not the greatest outcomes.

[moonslav59]

How many realistic forum members and lurkers suspect the front office will just fill in your blanks by merely moving up the names already on these lists?

 

I doubt more than 1 or 2, if that.

 

I'll be surprised with just 1-2 big names. More likely we sign another Gio type and 2 Criswell-types.

[Hugh2]

The last two years they went out and got Kluber and Giolito while dealing Sale. Not the greatest outcomes.

 

 

Those were still guys they got to fill holes instead of looking within their organization, which was my point. Not whether or not the outcome was good.

[Hugh2]

I doubt more than 1 or 2, if that.

 

I'll be surprised with just 1-2 big names. More likely we sign another Gio type and 2 Criswell-types.

 

Id be surprised with just ONE big name, at the same time part of me feels like this could be the year they finally do something.

[moonslav59]

Id be surprised with just ONE big name, at the same time part of me feels like this could be the year they finally do something.

 

I'm trying to be hopeful, but I'm not setting my expectations and higher than us replacing Pivetta, in kind, and Jansen & Martin with lesser quality replacements- basically 3 "meh" signings for the big league staff.

[moonslav59]

We had yesterday off, despite having 2-3 mre games to play than most MLB teams.

 

While the loss column is very important, we will need to win those "extra" 2-3 games to just keep pace. That being said, only 7 teams in MLB have less losses than us, and we are very close to many of them:

 

Least losses:

46 PHI

47 CLE

48 BAL & NYY

49 LAD & MIL

50 MIN

52 BOS, KCR, SDP

53 ARI

54 NYM & ATL

55 HOU

56 SEA

57 STL

58 SFG

 

The WC Standings:

NYY and BAL are tied for the ALE lead and the top WC slot at 68-48

63-50 MIN

64-52 KCR (-0.5 from MIN)

 

61-62 BOS -1.5 (tied loss column)

60-56 SEA -4.0 (tied for ALW lead)

58-56 TBR -5.0

 

The AL and NL each have 9 teams with winning records and 6 with losing records.

The AL has 6 teams more than 5 games out of the WC or division lead.

The NL has just 3 teams that far out.

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Id be surprised with just ONE big name, at the same time part of me feels like this could be the year they finally do something.

 

We can also easily hear Sam spewing the same old, that they already made moves anticipating next year's holes: Giolito replaces Pivetta, Hendriks replaces Jansen, Slaten and/or Fulmer replace Martin...

 

... it's easy -- all you need is love, love; love is all you need.

[moonslav59]

We can also easily hear Sam spewing the same old, that they already made moves anticipating next year's holes: Giolito replaces Pivetta, Hendriks replaces Jansen, Slaten and/or Fulmer replace Martin...

 

... it's easy -- all you need is love, love; love is all you need.

 

He can try, but it won't work. It didn't really work, last winter, but I do agree that he probably thinks it did, and the more exciting team tis year "proves" he was right (in his own twisted mind.)

 

I remember thinking after 2022 ans 2023, that the success of 2021 probably hurt the team, in the long run. It gave the FO cover to hide their true intentions and kick the sham into overdrive.

[Hugh2]

We can also easily hear Sam spewing the same old, that they already made moves anticipating next year's holes: Giolito replaces Pivetta, Hendriks replaces Jansen, Slaten and/or Fulmer replace Martin...

 

... it's easy -- all you need is love, love; love is all you need.

 

No, I don't think they do that little, they're in a better position to compete now.

 

Plus they always spend the money, just not the way we may like it.

 

Your example requires ZERO payroll added. Last year they added Giolito, the year before Kluber, Yoshida, Turner and Jansen.

 

My point is, even when they've made all the wrong moves or bad moves they've still made moves and spent something. I expect this year to be no different..........but hopefully with different results.

[MADSTORK]

Yorke 10 25

 

Preister 2 IP 8ER 4BB

Simms 4 earned

Garcia 4IP 4H 3ER

 

Post all star break 8 11

 

Priceless!

[moonslav59]

Yorke 10 25

 

Preister 2 IP 8ER 4BB

Simms 4 earned

Garcia 4IP 4H 3ER

 

Post all star break 8 11

 

Priceless!

 

At least you didn't say "facts are facts," because once again, you got your numbers wrong.

 

Yorke is 9 for 25 on the farm, not 10 for 25.

 

The others you listed are playing against the big boys.

 

Better luck, next time.

[Randy Red Sox]

I think you will see some of that, but they're not going sit by and make no moves. Even in the most crappy, worse played off season the Sox went out and got guys......we just didn't like those guys.

 

For the first time in a long time we might be simultaneously coming off of a winning season AND have been under the luxury tax. If they don't spend this offseason they will literally have exhausted every excuse they have.

 

we will be looking again at the Sox grabbing guys on 1-2 year deals on low risk-high reward deals. that has been the modus-operandi since DD was fired

[moonslav59]

we will be looking again at the Sox grabbing guys on 1-2 year deals on low risk-high reward deals. that has been the modus-operandi since DD was fired

 

That is what I am expecting, too. While I have not lost hope things might change, I no longer expect it to happen.

 

It's not impossible to strike gold on these 1-2 year deals, but we have been awful at it. The best of all our attempts were Wacha and Hill, and both missed time, when we need them most. Paxton did okay for a big chunk of his second year, but he missed time, too.

 

You mentioned things changed "since DD was fired," when it actually started during DD's last year, here. We let Kimbrell and Kelly go and added nobody to the staff. Also, his last two big pitchers signings did not do great with their extensions (Sale & Nate.)

 

I know I am hoping against hope that we make a big splash with the staff, this winter. We really need 2-3, minimum, but even one seems beyond my imagination, now.

 

I still think a big trade has more hope of happening. (More than next to nothing is not saying all that much.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

That is what I am expecting, too. While I have not lost hope things might change, I no longer expect it to happen.

 

It's not impossible to strike gold on these 1-2 year deals, but we have been awful at it. The best of all our attempts were Wacha and Hill, and both missed time, when we need them most. Paxton did okay for a big chunk of his second year, but he missed time, too.

 

You mentioned things changed "since DD was fired," when it actually started during DD's last year, here. We let Kimbrell and Kelly go and added nobody to the staff. Also, his last two big pitchers signings did not do great with their extensions (Sale & Nate.)

 

Nate was actually a free agent signing, not an extension.

 

I guess it would be more accurate to say - instead of "since DD was fired" - "since JH let DD know the fun was over."

[Bellhorn04]

ERA by months:

 

2.62

4.12

4.38

4.91

6.05

 

Mr. Bailey?

[Hugh2]

That is what I am expecting, too. While I have not lost hope things might change, I no longer expect it to happen.

 

It's not impossible to strike gold on these 1-2 year deals, but we have been awful at it. The best of all our attempts were Wacha and Hill, and both missed time, when we need them most. Paxton did okay for a big chunk of his second year, but he missed time, too.

 

You mentioned things changed "since DD was fired," when it actually started during DD's last year, here. We let Kimbrell and Kelly go and added nobody to the staff. Also, his last two big pitchers signings did not do great with their extensions (Sale & Nate.)

 

I know I am hoping against hope that we make a big splash with the staff, this winter. We really need 2-3, minimum, but even one seems beyond my imagination, now.

 

I still think a big trade has more hope of happening. (More than next to nothing is not saying all that much.)

 

 

I’d argue they really need one, one good own will do. Then maybe another lesser signing

 

1.Burnes/Fried/Crochet. FA/Trade 1

2. Tanner Houck

3. Lucas Giolito

4. Bryan Bello

5. Kutter Crawford

 

Depth/bullpen/milb depth:

 

FA/trade 2

Whitlock

Criswell

Winckowski

 

Milb depth:

Priester

Fitts

Penrod

++++

[moonslav59]

Nate was actually a free agent signing, not an extension.

 

I guess it would be more accurate to say - instead of "since DD was fired" - "since JH let DD know the fun was over."

 

The actual signing of 1-2 year pitchers did, in fact, start after DD was fired, so that part was accurate. And, DD signed/extended nobody "NEW."

 

Nate's contract started in 2019 and was the last big pitcher signing the Sox made. Sale's extension started in 2020, but was signed earlier.

 

The following SP'er additions were mostly misses, and at these prices, one should not have expected much better results:

 

2020 $6M

Martin Perez I $6M/1

Pivetta (trade for Workman & Hembree)

 

2021 $23M ($23M AAV)

Martin Perez II $5M/1

Garrett Richards $10M/1

Adam Ottavino $8M/1 (trade)

 

2022 $49M ($31M AAV)

Matt Barnes $19M/2 (extension)

James Paxton $10M/2

Michael Wacha $7M/1

Rich Hill $5M/1

Jake Diekman $8M/2

 

2023 $60M ($35M AAV)

Kenley Jansen $32M/2

Chris Martin $18M/2

Corey Kluber $10M/1

 

2024 $49M ($24M AAV)

Lucas Giolito $39M/2

Liam Hendriks $10M/2

 

If you look at just the AAV signed each of the last 4 winters, we spent enough to sign a top pitcher at over $24M x 4 years, but we broke it down and spread it out, instead.)

 

Had we "hit" on more of these signings, it wouldn't look so bad, but you get what you pay for and we got mostly crap.

 

It's weird that perhaps our best season for adding pitchers was 2022 not 2021, so the results have not matched up with the team's success, either.

[moonslav59]

I’d argue they really need one, one good own will do. Then maybe another lesser signing

 

1.Burnes/Fried/Crochet. FA/Trade 1

2. Tanner Houck

3. Lucas Giolito

4. Bryan Bello

5. Kutter Crawford

 

Depth/bullpen/milb depth:

 

FA/trade 2

Whitlock

Criswell

Winckowski

 

Milb depth:

Priester

Fitts

Penrod

++++

 

I'd be thrilled with one TOTR pitcher and another Criswell type or two.

 

I'm not sure that will be enough, though. Why are we expecting full successful seasons from Gio, Houck, Crawford, Bello and Whitlock?

 

While I feel better about most of them than I did in March, all are still question marks for 2025.

 

Plus, no Pivetta, Jansen and Martin is a big hit to the staff.

[Bellhorn04]

Rich Hill just did a throwing session for interested teams, BTW, and you won't be surprised to hear the Sox were one of them.

[moonslav59]

ERA by months:

 

2.62

4.12

4.38

4.91

6.05

 

Mr. Bailey?

 

We all remember "Restgate" in 2019, and there has been some talk about relying on too many pitchers to throw way more than their previous career highs in IP, but I have to think this is part of it.

 

Not adding SP'er depth was the biggest swing and miss, this past winter. Sure, Gio's injury hurt like hell and forced the overuse of what little depth we had, to begin with, but adding just Criswell and Anderson by opening day was a huge blunder.

 

Here are the OPS Against by month:

.613 April

.688 May (still very nice, but actually the biggest drop by month)

.722 June (not bad)

.790 July (uh-oh!)

.843 August (horrific)

[moonslav59]

Rich Hill just did a throwing session for interested teams, BTW, and you won't be surprised to hear the Sox were one of them.

 

Ih he shows half a heartbeat, sign his ass!

[Bellhorn04]

It's weird that perhaps our best season for adding pitchers was 2022 not 2021, so the results have not matched up with the team's success, either.

 

Just about everything about our rotation construction has been weird since JH had his big epiphany about the payroll.

 

One gets tired of going back over and over it.

 

The bottom line is, it's still a big problem. And Andrew Bailey could obviously only improve it a little with the tweaks he made. The value of the tweaks seems to have all worn off.

[Randy Red Sox]

Ih he shows half a heartbeat, sign his ass!

 

If he comes cheap Henry MAY approve the expenditure