A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[Larry Cook]

I think teel is Boston ready now with the bat!

The defense is already better than wong’s!

 

2025 should be wong and teel behind the plate.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think teel is Boston ready now with the bat!

The defense is already better than wong’s!

 

2025 should be wong and teel behind the plate.

 

Not disagreeing, but if the org is sold on Teel for '25, Breslow may sign Jansen (his acquisition) to be back-up and maximize a return for Wong at peak trade value.

[mvp 78]

I think teel is Boston ready now with the bat!

The defense is already better than wong’s!

 

2025 should be wong and teel behind the plate.

 

He's probably ready, but I am not mad that they'll give him a little extra time to develop further.

[moonslav59]

Haven't seen anyone comment on this but I think the Red Sox have the toughest schedule of any team for the rest of the season.

One of the big reasons the Sox record improved so dramatically before the ASB was they played a number of horrible teams.

 

Well they are going to largely face the whirlwind from here on out.

I just do not think they have the players to finish strong, unless injuries to other teams come into play.

 

Out of the 3 series before the ASB, we took 2 of 3 from NYY and KCR. Not "horrible."

[mvp 78]

Reese McGuire and Yohan Ramirez outrighted to AAA after clearing waivers.

[mvp 78]

Wingenter was claimed by the dumpster diving Cubs.

[moonslav59]

Reese McGuire and Yohan Ramirez outrighted to AAA after clearing waivers.

 

I must have been higher on McGuire than some GMs. (Not the first time.)

[mvp 78]

I must have been higher on McGuire than some GMs. (Not the first time.)

 

His defense has taken a step backwards and his bat is god awful.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Reese McGuire and Yohan Ramirez outrighted to AAA after clearing waivers.

 

In upcoming trades this winter, they can be the battery not included.

[notin]

Wingenter was claimed by the dumpster diving Cubs.

 

Wingenter’s third team in his last 30 days…

[Larry Cook]

Wingenter’s third team in his last 30 days…

 

Why??? He is beyond terrible

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why??? He is beyond terrible

 

Wishful thinking; got Win in his name.

 

The Red Sox once had a pitcher whose first name was actually Win, but they only kept him around for two years.

 

They also had a hurler named Sellers for three years... who wouldn't fit in during the Bloom Era, even in the years Boston finished in the cellars.

[moonslav59]

We do have…

 

Josh WIN ckowski!

[Randy Red Sox]

Not disagreeing, but if the org is sold on Teel for '25, Breslow may sign Jansen (his acquisition) to be back-up and maximize a return for Wong at peak trade value.

 

not a chance. Janzen as a FA will be looking to cash in and will be more expensive in 2025 than Wong. it is ALL about the $$$ with JH

[Bellhorn04]

Wingenter’s third team in his last 30 days…

 

AKA Wingenterprayer...

[moonslav59]

not a chance. Janzen as a FA will be looking to cash in and will be more expensive in 2025 than Wong. it is ALL about the $$$ with JH

 

It has been, since at least the Sale & Nate extensions (and not a Betts one.) I have given up on expecting him to spend really large, again, despite the massive Devers deal that dwarfed even the Price one, and despite semi "large and long" deals given to Story and Yoshida. I'll believe it when I see it has become my mantra, but that does not mean I am certain he will never spend bigly, again.

 

That being said, I think we will keep Wong and Teel for as long as possible. It's hard as hell to find top tier catchers, although Wong's defense is not top tier, except his arm. Wong could end up seeing time at another position, but he'll have to stay near .800 for that. If it ever gets to the point, where we can't find ABs for one of the two, then look to trade, at that point. That might be 2-3 years from now.

 

I understand MVP's desire to trade Mayer, but I'm not sold on the quantity over quality plan at middle infield. Rafaela should not play SS, unless it's an emergency, and by that I mean he should not be placed on any opening day roster about #3 on the MLB SS depth chart list. That narrows the field, significantly. Story cannot be counted on for anything, but he is at least one of the "quality" guys in the "quantity mix." I really like a DHam-Romy or Griffin platoon at 2B, but really as back-ups, and if we need one at SS, it's far to lacking on proven quality. Valdez makes a great platoon partner, but his D is so atrocious, I never want to see him at 2B, again. I've mentioned trading him, because this team has no space for a platoon DH/LF type. I really like Campbell, a lot, but he might be better suited for LF, as well. He may also not ne ML ready until the end of '25 or early '26. We have a bunch of super exciting players that could end up at 2B by 2026 or 2027, but I'm focusing more on now and 2025. Sogard already looks better than Westbrook, but I don't view him as a significant playing time middle infielder. I suppose we could look to free agency for that big RHB middle infielder, but so far nobody has named that guy, and I wonder about JH's willingness to pay him, even if he did exist. I'm not happy going into this depth chart at middle IF, next opening day (assuming we trade Mayer:)

 

SS: Story, DHam-Romy, Sogard (emergency: Rafaela/Grissom)

2B: Story, DHam-Grissom/Romy, Sogard, maybe Campbell (late '25, with emergency back-up Rafaela)

We need Mayer for 2025, and beyond, IMO.

 

That takes me back to OF, as it always does. The OF has come a long way from being one of MLB's worst a few years back, to one of the best and deepest, today. To trade for pitching, we need to give to get. I know fans are hesitant to trade players they like, and trading one is NOT about "giving up on" one or "dumping" from depth by just handing talent away. I'm super high on many of our OF'er, even with some having limited (such as platoon only) roles, going forward. We are so strong and deep at the OF position, right now, looking at 2025 and as far into the future as possible. We even have our best defensive OF'er playing near FT SS, right now, and that is not just about the hole we have at SS, but also so we can play Duran, O'Neill and an Abreu-Ref platoon in the OF and not at DH, where Yoshida has been coming to life. Everyone is back, next year, except O'Neill. Losing his RHB will hurt like hell, and we may try to bring him back, due to the LH'd unbalanced nature of our current OF and our most ML ready farm depth. Let's assume JH keeps the tight budget and disallows an O'Neill return. We'll have to hope Story picks up some of the RHB void, and maybe Rafaela kicks it up a notch. The return of LHB Casas might make up for some of the O'Neill loss, especially the power, but we'll be even more LHB heavy in 2026. I'm not so sure that is a good idea.

 

This sort of begs the question: which talented LHB OF'er do we trade for pitching or a RHB OF'er. (I suppose we could trade Mayer and a LHB OF'er for a power SS, and barely miss a beat in the OF, but I'm trying to keep it simple.) So, as much as mostly all of us love our LHB OF'ers and top prospects, who do we keep and who do we trade. I don't see any more simple solutions.

 

Duran has to be viewed as the most likely to keep. While his arbs will get more and more expensive, he's got 4 years to go, with at least 3 likely to be underpays for the value he is likely to give us.

 

Abreu has shown some great signs of being a true hitter vs RHPs, and we face RH'd SP'ers about 70% of the time. He can PH and play in most of the other 30% of the game, as well. He looks like a true "keeper," but when you look at the promise Anthony brings to the table, I'm not so sure he is the guy to keep. Refsnyder makes for a great platoon with him, but he's gone after 2025. I think the next guy looks like he can hit LHPs and RHPs better than Abreu, but he's not proven anything at the ML level.

 

Anthony looks like the guy that should be kept, but he would likely bring back way more in trade than Abreu, so to me, it comes down to the return and which trade-off helps us the most. We need pitching, badly, so to me, in theory, it looks like trading Anthony makes the most sense.

 

The RHB Rafaela, despite his high error rate in his rookie year, looks like the best defensive OF'er we have that is ML or near ML ready. His bat has shown plus quality in year one, after s low start. He can even steal a base or two. Refsnyder offer a great OF bat vs LHPs, and we may soon see Campbell as another RHB but in LF, only.

 

Let's say we trade Anthony for pitching and do not replace O'Neill, this would be our 2025 OF and beyond look:

 

LF: Duran L (Refsnyder R) Yoshida L in an emergency. (Sogard L/R in AAA)

CF: Rafaela R (Duran L)

RF: Abreu L & Refsnyder R

 

2025 and beyond:

LF: Duran L, Campbell R (Valdez L) (Cespedes?)

CF: Rafaela R, Duran L (Bleis)

RF: Abreu L, Campbell? R or Jh Garcia R

 

I think that still looks pretty solid, even without O'Neill and Anthony.

 

We gotta give to get. There is no room for everyone to play as much as they should. We need pitching, pitching, and when we are done, even more pitching. If JH won't pay for it, this seems like the most logical way to get it.

[moonslav59]

The paths our offense and pitching have been taking couldn't be more of a reverse course than it is, now.

 

Our offense by OPS in cherry-picked sample sizes of chronological stretches:

.707 first 27 games

.723 second 27 games

.790 third 27 games

.853 last 27 games (.900 last 19 games!)

 

 

Our pitching by ERA:

2.73 first 27 games

3.77 second 27 games

4.33 third 27 games (I'd take this, right now!)

4.92 last 27 games

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The paths our offense and pitching have been taking couldn't be more of a reverse course than it is, now.

 

Our offense by OPS in cherry-picked sample sizes of chronological stretches:

.707 first 27 games

.723 second 27 games

.790 third 27 games

.853 last 27 games (.900 last 19 games!)

 

 

Our pitching by ERA:

2.73 first 27 games

3.77 second 27 games

4.33 third 27 games (I'd take this, right now!)

4.92 last 27 games

 

 

Couple reactions...

 

Two old adages: Pitchers are always ahead of hitters in the Spring, and good hitters always heat up in the Summer.

 

But maybe coaching plays more into this season than recent past (or maybe coaching is just more publicized, these days): Has Bailey's emphasis on breaking balls over velo taken a toll on elbows, previously unaccustomed to such strain? Has Fatse's research helped boost the overall batting, such as digging up high school videos of Smith that helped Dom get back to basics?

 

Either way, Red Sox fans should all give thanks to Duran's triples coach this season.

[moonslav59]

We are back to 8 games over .500, and in a balanced league, that places us 10th in MLB (.537 winning %.) For perspective and not as a predictor, that prorates to almost exactly 87 wins (.86.99.)

 

In terms of games behind/ahead, we are actually tied for 9th best with ATL and just ahead of AZ and the streaking NYM, HOU & SDP. 9th BEST! WOW!

 

The 108 game mark is exactly 2/3rds of the season. Although we are just 6 games ahead of #20 and 8.5 games from #1, I think this is pretty amazing. 54 games is a long way to go, so we probably should not be all giddy about our season, so far. Although 12 teams make the playoffs, being 10th best does not mean we get a berth. Right now, we are 2 GB MIN and 2.5 GB KCR for the last slot in the AL. We will likely have to do better than 87 wins to make it, since one of the 6 AL teams to make the playoffs might win the ALWest and have a worse record than us.

 

Some other notes on MLB at the 2/3 mark of the season:

CLE has passed PHI for the best record in MLB (and by 2 games!) That is nearly as shocking as the Sox being 9th or 10th or the Royals being 7th. On the flip side, the Rangers being in the bottom 10 is surprising (22nd best and just ahead of the early season surprise team, the Tiger.)

 

In terms of run differentials:

+115 NYY (Tied for 3rd best record in MLB)

+95 KCR (T7th and an indicator that they are no fluke)

+94 PHI (2)

+92 CLE (1)

+85 LAD (5)

+82 BAL (T3)

+82 MIL (6)

+63 ATL (9)

+49 MIN (T7)

+47 HOU (T14 w SEA)

+46 ARI (T10)

+39 SDP (T12)

+31 BOS (T10)

+30 NYM (T12)

 

Now the AL WC Race:

 

67-42 CLE (should win ALC)

65-46 BAL (T ALE & #1 WC)

65-46 NYY (T ALE & #1WC)

57-52 HOU (T ALW w SEA, but 1.5 behind BOS)

 

62-49 KCR (WC2) Has played 3 more games than BOS & MIN

60-48 MIN (WC3)

 

58-50 BOS -2.0 from MIN and -2.5 KCR (but 1 in loss column)

58-53 SEA -3.5 (-1.5 from BOS and still in WC race, too)

55-54 TBR -5.5 (Never really go away, do they?)

 

TEX is now 9 out.

[moonslav59]

Couple reactions...

 

Two old adages: Pitchers are always ahead of hitters in the Spring, and good hitters always heat up in the Summer.

 

But maybe coaching plays more into this season than recent past (or maybe coaching is just more publicized, these days): Has Bailey's emphasis on breaking balls over velo taken a toll on elbows, previously unaccustomed to such strain? Has Fatse's research helped boost the overall batting, such as digging up high school videos of Smith that helped Dom get back to basics?

 

Either way, Red Sox fans should all give thanks to Duran's triples coach this season.

 

This is reflected in the league-wide numbers, but with the Sox, the rise in OPS and fall in ERA are much more pronounced:

 

MLB OPS by month:

MLB month BOS

.699 April .739 (+.040)

.695 May .683 (-.012)

.721 June .806 (+085)

.735 July .839 (+.104)

 

ERA

MLB month BOS

4.00 April 2.62 (better by 1.38!)

3.90 May 3.80 (better by 0.10)

4.20 June 4.35 (worse by 0.15)

4.29 July 4.95 (worse by 0.36)

[Maxbialystock]

Couple reactions...

 

Two old adages: Pitchers are always ahead of hitters in the Spring, and good hitters always heat up in the Summer.

 

But maybe coaching plays more into this season than recent past (or maybe coaching is just more publicized, these days): Has Bailey's emphasis on breaking balls over velo taken a toll on elbows, previously unaccustomed to such strain? Has Fatse's research helped boost the overall batting, such as digging up high school videos of Smith that helped Dom get back to basics?

 

Either way, Red Sox fans should all give thanks to Duran's triples coach this season.

 

Pretty good reactions.

 

About the coaching. You could be right that breaking balls risk damaging elbows, but these days you gotta throw them, and the more spin the better. My impression of Crawford lately is that his pitches don't break much, thus 12 dingers in his last 3 games--all post-ASG. In his last 3 starts before the ASG he went 7, 7, and 6 IP giving up 1 ER and 1 dinger. Post-ASG has been an absolutely unreal turnaround in the wrong direction.

 

Bello, on the other hand, is about the same before and after the ASG: 18 IP and 9 ER before ASG and 17 IP and 8 ER after. Pivetta is also about the same before and after: 10 ER and 15 IP after the ASG and 9 ER and 17 IP before the ASG. Houck is better post ASG: 22 IP and 7 ER before ASG and 26 IP (4 starts) and 3 ER after ASG.

 

The bullpen, on the other hand, has been mostly awful since the ASG break, and part of that is because of injuries.

 

Interesting comments on the hitting. Breslow did nothing to help it, but they are better. It could be the hitting coach, as you say, but I also think it's Cora's willingness to load the lineup with lefty or righty bats, depending on the opposing starter, and then to bring in other bats when the opposing manager goes from a lefty starter to righty reliever or vice versa.

 

Plus this off the wall comment. The five worst DWAR's on this Sox team belong to Devers, O'Neill, Yoshida, Smith, and Refsnyder, and my impression is that Cora has no hesitation in playing any of them. Yoshida has yet to play in the field, but gets -0.5 DWAR because of it.

[notin]

Pretty good reactions.

 

About the coaching. You could be right that breaking balls risk damaging elbows, but these days you gotta throw them, and the more spin the better. My impression of Crawford lately is that his pitches don't break much, thus 12 dingers in his last 3 games--all post-ASG. In his last 3 starts before the ASG he went 7, 7, and 6 IP giving up 1 ER and 1 dinger. Post-ASG has been an absolutely unreal turnaround in the wrong direction.

 

Bello, on the other hand, is about the same before and after the ASG: 18 IP and 9 ER before ASG and 17 IP and 8 ER after. Pivetta is also about the same before and after: 10 ER and 15 IP after the ASG and 9 ER and 17 IP before the ASG. Houck is better post ASG: 22 IP and 7 ER before ASG and 26 IP (4 starts) and 3 ER after ASG.

 

The bullpen, on the other hand, has been mostly awful since the ASG break, and part of that is because of injuries.

 

Interesting comments on the hitting. Breslow did nothing to help it, but they are better. It could be the hitting coach, as you say, but I also think it's Cora's willingness to load the lineup with lefty or righty bats, depending on the opposing starter, and then to bring in other bats when the opposing manager goes from a lefty starter to righty reliever or vice versa.

 

Plus this off the wall comment. The five worst DWAR's on this Sox team belong to Devers, O'Neill, Yoshida, Smith, and Refsnyder, and my impression is that Cora has no hesitation in playing any of them. Yoshida has yet to play in the field, but gets -0.5 DWAR because of it.

 

Crawford’s fastball velocity is falling but his fastball usage is rising. He’s gassed.

 

Swap him for Criswell for a turn or two in the rotation…

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/pitch-velocity-graphs?position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=279%2C268&legend=1%2C2%2C3&split=base&time=daily&start=2022&end=2024&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

[moonslav59]

Crawford’s fastball velocity is falling but his fastball usage is rising. He’s gassed.

 

Swap him for Criswell for a turn or two in the rotation…

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kutter-crawford/20531/pitch-velocity-graphs?position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=279%2C268&legend=1%2C2%2C3&split=base&time=daily&start=2022&end=2024&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

 

Just keep Criswell in the rotation and alternate days off between Crawford and Houck.

 

I'm not sure we advance far in the playoffs, assuming me make them, if Crawford and Houck are "gassed." (Bello will be at his career high IP, too.)

[moonslav59]

...Interesting comments on the hitting. Breslow did nothing to help it, but they are better. It could be the hitting coach, as you say, but I also think it's Cora's willingness to load the lineup with lefty or righty bats, depending on the opposing starter, and then to bring in other bats when the opposing manager goes from a lefty starter to righty reliever or vice versa....

 

At the start of the season, on Part I and Part II, I discussed losing some big bats from 2023 and how I felt we could match the 2023 numbers by a group effort. While we did lose these OPS from some of most highly played players, we also lost some horrible OPS numbers from a combination of many lowly played players:

 

.800 J Turner (2nd in PAS '23)

.745 Verdugo (3rd)

.834 Duvall (7th)

 

But also...

.599 Kike (9th)

.638 Arroyo (12th and 206 PAs)

.716 Reyes (13th)

.522 Chang (112 PAs)

.698 Urias (109)

.701 Tapia (97)

.368 Alfaro (20)

 

I mentioned we might see less PAs from .570 Dalbec (53)

 

Here were my positional projections, with the obvious 1B (Casas) and 2B (Grissom) off by a long shot.)

 

BOLD RED= 2024 positional OPS

On offense: (2023 Positional OPS> 2024 projected PAs)

C: .673 Wong 400 & McGuire 300> .700 (.770- Nice Gain! Not many had faith at C)

1B: .840 Casas 650, Dalbec 50> .875 (.729)

2B: .663 Grissom 500, Valdez 150, Reyes 50>.725 (.525)

3B: .817 Devers 650, Dalbec 50> .900 (.867)

SS: .636 Story 600, Reyes 100> .775 (.771 wrong names/right guess on OPS)

LF: .799 Duran 450, O'Neill 200, Ref 50> .775 (.890- POW!)

CF: .827 Rafaela 450, Duran 150, Abreu 100> .725 (.714)

RF: .725 O'Neill 400, Abreu 300> .750 (.883- Another POW!)

DH: .755 Yoshida 650, O'Neill 50> .775 (.773)

 

We gained a lot on my projections at Catcher, LF and RF.

We lost some at 1B and a lot at 2B.

We came close at SS, 3B, CF and DH.

 

All in all, we look just as good and more promising, going forward- on O, alone.

[notin]

Just keep Criswell in the rotation and alternate days off between Crawford and Houck.

 

I'm not sure we advance far in the playoffs, assuming me make them, if Crawford and Houck are "gassed." (Bello will be at his career high IP, too.)

 

Let’s get there first…

[moonslav59]

The Sox have 10 players with 210+ PAs and 9 of them are over .708. (10 are over .675.)

1.002 Devers

.901 O'Neill

.860 Duran

.848 Refsnyder

.837 Abreu

.816 Wong (6 players over .815, including two pretty much on a platoon)

.734 Yoshida

.720 Smith

.710 Rafaela

 

.675 DHam (247 PAs) + Romy .778 (111 PAs) as a platoon would come to around .710ish, making it 9 slots over .710 (Abreu+ Ref=1) and (DHam + Romy=1)

 

I'm not sure any other team can boast of this kind of balanced offense by positional slots. (While our seasonal OPS at 2B is bad, a DHam-Romy platoon, there, is much better.)

 

[moonslav59]

Let’s get there first…

 

Agreed, but without Houck and Crawford pitching well, we probably don't make it, so this is not just about what we do, if we make the PO's.

 

I'd maybe rotate a missed start by Crawford, Houck and Bello for close to the rest of the season.

 

There are 54 games left, so about 11 GS per SP'er. Take away 3 from each, and you get:

 

11 Pivetta

11 Paxton (yikes!)

8 Houck

8 Crawford

8 Bello

8 Criswell

 

IMO, we have pretty close to the same chance of winning with Criswell on the mound as a gassed Crawford, Houck and Bello.

 

Criswell has already done better than Bello.

 

Since April 19th, Criswell has 63 IP and:

3.88 ERA

3.65 FIP (.294 BAbip)

 

For the season:

69 IP (Team is 9-4 in his 13 GS)

3.91 ERA

3.76 FIP (.296 BAbip)

 

Houck (129 IP) Team: 13-8 in 21 GS

2.79

2.93 FIP (.282 BAbip)

But in last 8 GS: 44 IP

4.50 ERA

4.26 FIP (.307 BAbip)

 

Crawford (128 IP) Team: 8-14 in 22 GS

3.81 ERA

4.75 FIP

But, last 14 GS (81 IP)

4.98 ERA

5.84 FIP (.233 BAbip) (6.74 FIP in last 8 GS)

 

Bello (107 IP in 20 GS) Team is 13-7 in his GS

5.13 ERA

4.26 FIP (3.25 BAbip)

But last 11 GS:

5.88 ERA

4.51 FIP (.375 BAbip)

 

I never thought I'd say it or believe it, but Criswell gives us an equal or better chance of winning than more than 1 SP'er in our rotation.

 

[vegasbob]

Moon, that is a massive amount of work and thought to say that , finally, there is some chance that organizational depth Position players only) can be used to address the pitching shortfalls. Those shortfalls in terms of capable bodies will only be worsened with the pending FAgency of Pivetta, Paxton, Martin and Jansen. Priester may be some help in '25, Hendriks and Giolito should be throwing, so it's not an empty barrel, but it does require full recoveries for the sore arms, and development of the new arm. That presumes no season long injuries to Houck, Crawford , Criswell and Bello.

 

It's fairly clear that over the off season, Breslow must find at least 2 starters and 2 relievers , with at least average ability, to build the staff up to a point that will match the player position roster. He also needs to work on the LH batter heaviness .

[moonslav59]

Moon, that is a massive amount of work and thought to say that , finally, there is some chance that organizational depth Position players only) can be used to address the pitching shortfalls. Those shortfalls in terms of capable bodies will only be worsened with the pending FAgency of Pivetta, Paxton, Martin and Jansen. Priester may be some help in '25, Hendriks and Giolito should be throwing, so it's not an empty barrel, but it does require full recoveries for the sore arms, and development of the new arm. That presumes no season long injuries to Houck, Crawford , Criswell and Bello.

 

It's fairly clear that over the off season, Breslow must find at least 2 starters and 2 relievers , with at least average ability, to build the staff up to a point that will match the player position roster. He also needs to work on the LH batter heaviness .

 

I'm glad you brought that up. While we lost Turner, Duvall and Verdugo from 2023, we did not miss a beat. Losing O'Neill should be "absorbed", as well, although swapping a LHB for an equal RHB might make sense, as well as using our positional depth to improve our pitching. (Losing Dom Smith & Danny Jansen can be easily fixed.)

 

You are right, losing Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and Paxton will not be easy to replace, in kind. When you consider our weakest area, right now, is pitching and defense, one has to think the need to improve on it becomes even more important, this winter. (There will also be no Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims.)

 

In theory, we will gain some pitching without making any moves:

Whitlock

Giolito

Hendriks

Fulmer

Murphy & Mata

Maybe more time or more productive time from:

Slaten & Kelly

I Campbell & Weissert

 

Perhaps we can expect something of value from:

Fitts

Dobbins

Guerrero

 

I'm thinking, these guys should be viewed as possible depth and not counted on to win and hold down a rotation slot or be our everyday closer or top set-up man. (Maybe Slaten or Hendriks can be the 1st or 2nd set-up man.)

 

IMO, we need an ace or solid #2 type, a closer, and 3-4 pitchers good enough to be expected to make the opening day 13 man staff. At worst, we need a solid #3 SP'er and a decent #4/5 type (like Pivetta), in lieu of a #1/2 type and 2 solid set-up men with the hope that hendriks or Slaten can be the closer and top 3 set up men. Either way, it comes down to 4-5 MLB pitchers.

 

SP1 ____

SP2 Houck

SP3 Giolito

SP4 Crawford

SP5 Bello

SP6 Criswell

SP7 ____ (a new Criswell)

SP8 Priester

SP9 Fitts

SP10 Murphy

 

Closer ____

RP2 Hendriks

RP3 Slaten

RP4 _____

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Kelly

RP7 Winckowski

RP8 Bernardino

RP9 Fulmer

RP10 Weissert/ I Campbell/ Booser/ Horn/ Mills/Guerrero

 

IF JH won't spend bigly, or even if he does spend some, we will likely need to trade from our everyday player strength.

 

Anthony or Abreu

Mayer or Campbell

Plus adding players like Bleis, Cespedes, JH Garcia, Meidroth or others

Maybe sub Teel for one of the top 4 players I listed.

 

It sucks giving up so much potential value, but we need to give to get.

 

 

Edited August 3, 2024 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

Our pitching by ERA:

2.73 first 27 games

3.77 second 27 games

4.33 third 27 games (I'd take this, right now!)

4.92 last 27 games

 

 

The lack of depth has been exposed