A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[jgar658]

What happens to Do Smith after Casas comes back?

 

Smith is playing quite well and is probably a better defender than Casas.

I suspect that Casas will struggle if he comes back too soon as he has been inactive for a long time.

 

Should Casas take a long rehab in Worcester before coming back?

What are the options for Smith?

[jgar658]

Cora is managing to win every game. I love it. f*** the starters if they can't finish the magical 5 innings marker. Yeah, I'm talking to you, Mr. Pivetta.

 

I think the players like to play for Cora and that is huge.

 

According to Dustin Pedroia Cora was a massive help when he first came up as a rookie. At the time Cora was still an active player.

[moonslav59]

What happens to Do Smith after Casas comes back?

 

Smith is playing quite well and is probably a better defender than Casas.

I suspect that Casas will struggle if he comes back too soon as he has been inactive for a long time.

 

Should Casas take a long rehab in Worcester before coming back?

What are the options for Smith?

 

I'm not sure we keep Smith much longer, after Casas returns, unless they want to give him days off. Romy can play 1B.

 

The way DHam is struggling, maybe he gets sent down, but we also have Grissom close to ready, if we think he's worth a shot, right now.

[mvp 78]

What happens to Do Smith after Casas comes back?

 

Smith is playing quite well and is probably a better defender than Casas.

I suspect that Casas will struggle if he comes back too soon as he has been inactive for a long time.

 

Should Casas take a long rehab in Worcester before coming back?

What are the options for Smith?

 

@redsoxstats

Casas is 105 and 106 mph off the bat to start the game today. He has 6 hits, 4 doubles, 3 walks, and a 50% hard hit rate in 23 PA to start his rehab. He's supposed to play in Syracuse again tomorrow, but I wonder if we just see him Friday night at Fenway.

 

Keep Smith on the bench for the vibes and insurance (Casas may have setbacks and could need days off). Option Hamilton.

[Maxbialystock]

@redsoxstats

Casas is 105 and 106 mph off the bat to start the game today. He has 6 hits, 4 doubles, 3 walks, and a 50% hard hit rate in 23 PA to start his rehab. He's supposed to play in Syracuse again tomorrow, but I wonder if we just see him Friday night at Fenway.

 

Keep Smith on the bench for the vibes and insurance (Casas may have setbacks and could need days off). Option Hamilton.

 

Great stats on Casas, thanks. But let's not forget that his injury was caused by swinging the bat at a pitched ball--3 1/2 months ago.

 

I completely agree that, if Casas is deemed ready this week, he should be the first choice at 1b because he has hit the ball well. He is good at catching throws to 1b, and not so good at fielding grounders.

[moonslav59]

Here are the SP'er Rankings of SP'ers with 100+ IP since June 3rd of 2023. That was when Crawford joined the rotation.

 

141 SP'ers with 100+ IP

 

SIERA

2.70 Crochet

2.86 Skubal

2.97 Glasnow

2.99 Sale

3.06 Pivetta

12. Imanaga 3.45

13. Flaherty 3.47

15. Cease 3.48

16. S Gray 3.48

17. Kikuchi 3.48

22. Garrett 3.55

23. G Cole 3.55

26. Eflin 3.60

33. Burnes 3.71

38. gausman 3.81

44. Houck 3.87

48. Luzardo 3.90

53. S Lugo 3.97

54. Eovaldi 3.97

55. Crawford 3.98

67. Bello 4.13

76. Giolito 4.21

81. Taillon 4.26

96. Wacha 4.40

103. Montgomery 4.53

118. Stroman 4.76

123. T Rogers 4.83

125. Paxton 4.87

133. Lorenzen 5.02

136. Flexen 5.15

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here are the SP'er Rankings of SP'ers with 100+ IP since June 3rd of 2023. That was when Crawford joined the rotation.

 

141 SP'ers with 100+ IP

 

SIERA

2.70 Crochet

2.86 Skubal

2.97 Glasnow

2.99 Sale

3.06 Pivetta

12. Imanaga 3.45

13. Flaherty 3.47

15. Cease 3.48

16. S Gray 3.48

17. Kikuchi 3.48

22. Garrett 3.55

23. G Cole 3.55

26. Eflin 3.60

33. Burnes 3.71

38. gausman 3.81

44. Houck 3.87

48. Luzardo 3.90

53. S Lugo 3.97

54. Eovaldi 3.97

55. Crawford 3.98

67. Bello 4.13

76. Giolito 4.21

81. Taillon 4.26

96. Wacha 4.40

103. Montgomery 4.53

118. Stroman 4.76

123. T Rogers 4.83

125. Paxton 4.87

133. Lorenzen 5.02

136. Flexen 5.15

 

 

The best time to invest in longterm starting pitching is always now -- and since Boston's farm system doesn't look to graduate any arms for the big league rotation soon, many upgrades and depth additions are needed asap to supplement the impending ascendancy of our positional core.

 

Without trading the future for guys at the top of this list, who are the best candidates to pursue this winter? I'll take one from each of the next three options...

 

1. If the best ability is availability, signing Burnes would be priority #1. Gausman, having a down year, may also be had from the rebuilding Jays, if the Sox will absorb the last two years of his contract (and isn't it time they start doing big market things like that again?).

 

2. Fragile younger guys seemingly poised to break out that might be worth prospect capital in a trade include Miami's Garrett and Luzardo. Which one would Bailey prefer? Both? Neither?

 

3. Also, two free agents sure to generate interest are Max Fried and Walker Buehler. Both recently returned from major IL time. Fried looks better so far. Can Breslow convince Henry to outbid the Braves, Dodgers and usual suspects for either?

[Hugh2]

Great stats on Casas, thanks. But let's not forget that his injury was caused by swinging the bat at a pitched ball--3 1/2 months ago.

 

I completely agree that, if Casas is deemed ready this week, he should be the first choice at 1b because he has hit the ball well. He is good at catching throws to 1b, and not so good at fielding grounders.

 

When I got divorced, I hit the gym. About 6 months in and 30 lbs down I suffered a back injury and herniated a disc in my back. It caused me to re-evaulate and completely overhaul how I train my core. 1 year later not only was a fully healed but I was back in the gym, stronger than ever, and literally deadlfting DOUBLE the weight I threw my back out on with no problem.

 

Casas strikes me as the type of guy to learn from his mistakes, and to tweak his routines accordingly. He strikes me as the type of guy to do the research, and listen to the athletic trainers on what to do to strengthen up the area where things went wrong. It's also sort of a "freakish" injury as well.

 

You can't prevent all injuries, I'd wager that he never suffers this injury again from swinging a bat.

[moonslav59]

The best time to invest in longterm starting pitching is always now -- and since Boston's farm system doesn't look to graduate any arms for the big league rotation soon, many upgrades and depth additions are needed asap to supplement the impending ascendancy of our positional core.

 

Without trading the future for guys at the top of this list, who are the best candidates to pursue this winter? I'll take one from each of the next three options...

 

1. If the best ability is availability, signing Burnes would be priority #1. Gausman, having a down year, may also be had from the rebuilding Jays, if the Sox will absorb the last two years of his contract (and isn't it time they start doing big market things like that again?).

 

2. Fragile younger guys seemingly poised to break out that might be worth prospect capital in a trade include Miami's Garrett and Luzardo. Which one would Bailey prefer? Both? Neither?

 

3. Also, two free agents sure to generate interest are Max Fried and Walker Buehler. Both recently returned from major IL time. Fried looks better so far. Can Breslow convince Henry to outbid the Braves, Dodgers and usual suspects for either?

 

I'd love to see us sign a big FA guy, like Burnes, but I've given up thinking it might happen. That is why I have been on my big trade a top prospect plus some mid tier ones for a solid SP'er with 3+ years of control. It seems like the most realistic way it might happen.

 

We may swing and miss, no matter which road we take, and I won't be shocked if we add nobody more highly regarded than Gio was, last year. Sad but pretty likely, IMO.

[Hugh2]

The best time to invest in longterm starting pitching is always now

 

 

I don't disagree with this statement, but I'd add that HOW you add to the starting pitching is about timing. You can buy it, trade for it, and develop it. I certainly have no problem doing all three, but for example, if we were the Chicago White Sox right now the last thing I'd ever want to do is trade for front line starting pitching.....at that point I'd want to invest in developing it. Sox seem to be on the up, my hope is they do a little bit of the other two, trade for a guy and sign a guy. Fried or Burnes would look awfully good in Red next year.

[Bellhorn04]

Fried looks very risky right now. His payday is shrinking.

[Hugh2]

Fried looks very risky right now. His payday is shrinking.

 

Give me Burnes or give me death

[Bellhorn04]

Crawford looks dreadful. And they said Pivetta's next start is going to be skipped because his velocity is down.

 

We've got everything going for us but the starting rotation. The area they failed to address.

[Bellhorn04]

Burnes looks like the best FA starter for sure. But I don't know if the Sox have the appetite for risk to go after him. He's about to turn 30.

 

It's the same old deal - he'll be getting paid for what he's done. And the risk of him being yet another big dollar bust will be large.

[Hugh2]

Burnes looks like the best FA starter for sure. But I don't know if the Sox have the appetite for risk to go after him. He's about to turn 30.

 

It's the same old deal - he'll be getting paid for what he's done. And the risk of him being yet another big dollar bust will be large.

 

You know, I get why people always say "the Red Sox won't spend the money on big time free agent starters"

 

Well......

 

Isn't there just as much evidence in recent years that they won't spend the prospect capital on trading for them either?

 

I think most of us would be happy with either avenue if they could just bring in top tier talent.

[Bellhorn04]

Our big addition for 2025 will probably be Giolito.

[mvp 78]

Those BIG MARKET Red Sox amirite?

[notin]

Crawford looks dreadful. And they said Pivetta's next start is going to be skipped because his velocity is down.

 

We've got everything going for us but the starting rotation. The area they failed to address.

 

Well… Paxton.

 

It’s probably not enough, but I’d rather have him than not right now….

[Bellhorn04]

We might be seeing a fair number of bullpen games down the stretch...

[notin]

We might be seeing a fair number of bullpen games down the stretch...

 

Or tap into Worcester.

 

The possibilities are not exciting, but they do exist.

 

Priester and Keller are already on the 40 man. Jason Alexander filled in for this exact type of role in Milwaukee a couple years ago, and really only gets signed for this type of thing at this point in his career. Zach Penrod is available, but a long shot in my opinion…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Our big addition for 2025 will probably be Giolito.

 

You talked to Sam?

 

Dr. Reattache and the Breslow and Bailey Circus guarantee that Giolito will be better than any ace we can possibly sign for what he'll earn for the full length of his contract: $58 million dollars!

[mvp 78]

Or tap into Worcester.

 

The possibilities are not exciting, but they do exist.

 

Priester and Keller are already on the 40 man. Jason Alexander filled in for this exact type of role in Milwaukee a couple years ago, and really only gets signed for this type of thing at this point in his career. Zach Penrod is available, but a long shot in my opinion…

 

Penrod is struggling to get through 3 innings. He's been a piggyback guy at best since his injury. Priester may get a shot in September if they can really work on him. Keller is the most likely guy to call up. Maybe Criswell to a starter role? Try Winck again? Not really any great options. Lots of white flag type ones. I've heard some people asking for Fitts, but he'd get absolutely rocked IMO.

[notin]

Penrod is struggling to get through 3 innings. He's been a piggyback guy at best since his injury. Priester may get a shot in September if they can really work on him. Keller is the most likely guy to call up. Maybe Criswell to a starter role? Try Winck again? Not really any great options. Lots of white flag type ones. I've heard some people asking for Fitts, but he'd get absolutely rocked IMO.

 

If Penrod has issues, that’s fine. My initial search was not exactly deep. “Hey, this guy exists” kind of thing.

 

Keller got rocked last time up, but his 5.40 ERA looks pretty tempting compared to what Crawford has been doing lately. And his 3.71 FIP looks even better.

 

I hope they don’t wait on Priester solely for control reasons. I’m fine with him not being ready or not pitching well yet or whatever excuse they’ll probably actually use. But if the 2024 ship is sinking, don’t watch it go down so that 2029 looks brighter…

[mvp 78]

If Penrod has issues, that’s fine. My initial search was not exactly deep. “Hey, this guy exists” kind of thing.

 

Keller got rocked last time up, but his 5.40 ERA looks pretty tempting compared to what Crawford has been doing lately. And his 3.71 FIP looks even better.

 

I hope they don’t wait on Priester solely for control reasons. I’m fine with him not being ready or not pitching well yet or whatever excuse they’ll probably actually use. But if the 2024 ship is sinking, don’t watch it go down so that 2029 looks brighter…

 

Aside from what you mentioned, there aren't any other viable options at the moment that I can think of. I don't think Penrod being added to the 40 is out of question, but it'd be more in a bulk relief role IMO. They need to make a decision on him this year as he's a FA unless added to the 40.

[notin]

You talked to Sam?

 

Dr. Reattache and the Breslow and Bailey Circus guarantee that Giolito will be better than any ace we can possibly sign for what he'll earn for the full length of his contract: $58 million dollars!

 

I think they’ll go the Japanese route. Imanaga is making teams that didn’t go all in look like morons. The Asian pitchers are often cheaper and never have draft pick compensation attached. Granted, the superstars like Yamamoto and this coming off-season’s version Sasaki are going to be bank breakers. But there is quality in that second tier on occasion.

 

One name that’s been flirting with coming to the US is Kona Takahashi. He’s 27 (28 in Feb) and been pitching for the Seibu Lions (Daisuke’s old team). Apparently he’s good friends with Yusei Kikuchi and is very intrigued by MLB.

 

I could see someone like that interesting Boston without exceeding the budget…

[notin]

Aside from what you mentioned, there aren't any other viable options at the moment that I can think of. I don't think Penrod being added to the 40 is out of question, but it'd be more in a bulk relief role IMO. They need to make a decision on him this year as he's a FA unless added to the 40.

 

As unexciting as he is, at some point in think Jason Alexander will get the call. This is the type of guy you sign to a minor league deal so that he can be late season depth. He’s already over 30. Not like he was signed to be part of the future.

 

He made some spot starts in August and September, 2022 for Milwaukee. “Emergency starter” is his ceiling…

[Old Red]

Penrod is struggling to get through 3 innings. He's been a piggyback guy at best since his injury. Priester may get a shot in September if they can really work on him. Keller is the most likely guy to call up. Maybe Criswell to a starter role? Try Winck again? Not really any great options. Lots of white flag type ones. I've heard some people asking for Fitts, but he'd get absolutely rocked IMO.

 

Criswell will probably be first man up, and then Wink. If it gets to have to be more than that then it’s on to 2025. It’s a bad time to be resting the starters now, but the way some have been pitching it looks like no other choice.

[mvp 78]

As unexciting as he is, at some point in think Jason Alexander will get the call. This is the type of guy you sign to a minor league deal so that he can be late season depth. He’s already over 30. Not like he was signed to be part of the future.

 

He made some spot starts in August and September, 2022 for Milwaukee. “Emergency starter” is his ceiling…

 

They also needed to sign AAA starters just to fill out that rotation. If there's an emergency that calls for Jason Alexander, the Sox need to score a lot of runs and are probably in a really bad place.

[mvp 78]

Criswell will probably be first man up, and then Wink. If it gets to have to be more than that then it’s on to 2025. It’s a bad time to be resting the starters now, but the way some have been pitching it looks like no other choice.

 

There should be other guys passing through the waiver wire over the next month and a half. Not guys you'd be worried about keeping for the playoffs anyway. Churn and burn I guess.

[moonslav59]

You know, I get why people always say "the Red Sox won't spend the money on big time free agent starters"

 

Well......

 

Isn't there just as much evidence in recent years that they won't spend the prospect capital on trading for them either?

 

I think most of us would be happy with either avenue if they could just bring in top tier talent.

 

I don't think we had this sort of high prospect value, recently, and not the bottleneck situation we have, now.

 

I also think the unspoken plan was to build for 5 years (starting with mid season 2019.) That 5 years is up.

 

This is a new management team, but JH is the still here. I will no longer predict or expect him to spend heavily on a SP'er again. I think it's easier to envision him deciding to trade prospects for a lower cost TOTR pitcher, despite that not happening since Sale,