A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

While I don't dispute this, every team has hard luck stories that can add up to 3/4 wins.

 

We are where we are, and we deserve to be there.

 

We've certainly had our share of key injuries, maybe more, but yes, every team has some hard luck story or two.

 

I do think this team can turn it around, and get back into the playoff circle. They seem to have more grit than recent teams, 2021 notwithstanding.

 

The pitching, as always, will be the key. Both the rotation and the pen, have fallen off a cliff and need to get back on track. Maybe the arrival of Garcia, Sims and maybe later, Hendriks, Priester and Slaten/Martin will provide the boost we need.

 

Of course, our offense has to keep hitting, and be more consistent, but that is a given. Despite the metrics showing otherwise, our defense looks slightly better to me than it was in April. (O'Neill has not.)

 

If I had to make a prediction, 83-84 wins seems about right.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

August traditionally brings a sense of impending doom to school children across America -- and though it usually feels the same for the Red Sox -- it wasn't always that way.

 

Twenty years ago, a Boston team that had a losing record in June and barely broke .500 in July went 21-7 in August; that season turned out pretty good for the 2004 Sox.

 

The Red Sox also had winning records in August from '07 through '11; those clubs averaged 93 wins for a half decade. After the Bobby Valentine's Year Massacre and a few up-and-down seasons, the Red Sox went on another half decade run of August success, with winning records from '15 through '19; those clubs averaged 91 wins.

 

Then came Covid, Bloom's trade deadlines and Dead Team Playing -- which equated to losing Augusts the past four years, for an overall record of 46-65... and three last place finishes.

 

Hopefully, a new CBO has breathed a Brez of fresh air into the clubhouse.

[Bellhorn04]

While I don't dispute this, every team has hard luck stories that can add up to 3/4 wins.

 

We are where we are, and we deserve to be there.

 

Agreed.

[Bellhorn04]

The 2024 team is still in a pretty strange place.

 

FanGraphs gives us a 37.4% chance of making the playoffs.

 

If they're right, there's a 62.6% chance we miss the playoffs for the third straight year. But we know that even if that happens, the team's mouthpieces are going to be selling 2024 as a success because we had some exciting player developments and we were semi-in-the-hunt for a while. And best of all, we did nothing stupid that would harm the golden future.

[Bellhorn04]

And if the team misses the playoffs by a couple of games, the Sale for Giolito swap is really gonna look costly...

 

(Sorry, I often can't resist the urge to start the day by being a s*** disturber.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The 2024 team is still in a pretty strange place.

 

FanGraphs gives us a 37.4% chance of making the playoffs.

 

If they're right, there's a 62.6% chance we miss the playoffs for the third straight year. But we know that even if that happens, the team's mouthpieces are going to be selling 2024 as a success because we had some exciting player developments and we were semi-in-the-hunt for a while. And best of all, we did nothing stupid that would harm the golden future.

 

Sam will still say they underachieved, because he underachieved, and we all have to do better.

 

And we all have to own it. Except John, because he already does.

[notin]

And if the team misses the playoffs by a couple of games, the Sale for Giolito swap is really gonna look costly...

 

(Sorry, I often can't resist the urge to start the day by being a s*** disturber.)

 

It’s already been costly. No one disagrees with that…

[notin]

The 2024 team is still in a pretty strange place.

 

FanGraphs gives us a 37.4% chance of making the playoffs.

 

If they're right, there's a 62.6% chance we miss the playoffs for the third straight year. But we know that even if that happens, the team's mouthpieces are going to be selling 2024 as a success because we had some exciting player developments and we were semi-in-the-hunt for a while. And best of all, we did nothing stupid that would harm the golden future.

 

Should the Sox have done something stupid? Traded Roman Anthony for maybe 15-20 IP from Tanner Scott?

[moonslav59]

And if the team misses the playoffs by a couple of games, the Sale for Giolito swap is really gonna look costly...

 

(Sorry, I often can't resist the urge to start the day by being a s*** disturber.)

 

We should start a whole thread on this...

 

Oh WAIT!

[moonslav59]

Should the Sox have done something stupid? Traded Roman Anthony for maybe 15-20 IP from Tanner Scott?

 

this might be one thing every poster has the same answer:

 

NO!

 

(I would not have traded Anthony for Flaherty, Scott and Garcia-combined.)

[mvp 78]

August traditionally brings a sense of impending doom to school children across America -- and though it usually feels the same for the Red Sox -- it wasn't always that way.

 

Twenty years ago, a Boston team that had a losing record in June and barely broke .500 in July went 21-7 in August; that season turned out pretty good for the 2004 Sox.

 

The Red Sox also had winning records in August from '07 through '11; those clubs averaged 93 wins for a half decade. After the Bobby Valentine's Year Massacre and a few up-and-down seasons, the Red Sox went on another half decade run of August success, with winning records from '15 through '19; those clubs averaged 91 wins.

 

Then came Covid, Bloom's trade deadlines and Dead Team Playing -- which equated to losing Augusts the past four years, for an overall record of 46-65... and three last place finishes.

 

Hopefully, a new CBO has breathed a Brez of fresh air into the clubhouse.

 

Impending doom? My kids go back to school next week!

[Elktonnick]

Haven't seen anyone comment on this but I think the Red Sox have the toughest schedule of any team for the rest of the season.

One of the big reasons the Sox record improved so dramatically before the ASB was they played a number of horrible teams.

 

Well they are going to largely face the whirlwind from here on out.

I just do not think they have the players to finish strong, unless injuries to other teams come into play.

[mvp 78]

The 2024 team is still in a pretty strange place.

 

FanGraphs gives us a 37.4% chance of making the playoffs.

 

If they're right, there's a 62.6% chance we miss the playoffs for the third straight year. But we know that even if that happens, the team's mouthpieces are going to be selling 2024 as a success because we had some exciting player developments and we were semi-in-the-hunt for a while. And best of all, we did nothing stupid that would harm the golden future.

 

It seems to be following the track of what I thought they'd do: a record similar to PY, but the team would be more interesting/engaging. I'm happier with this season than I was with '22 or '23 even if they miss out on the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

Haven't seen anyone comment on this but I think the Red Sox have the toughest schedule of any team for the rest of the season.

One of the big reasons the Sox record improved so dramatically before the ASB was they played a number of horrible teams.

 

Well they are going to largely face the whirlwind from here on out.

I just do not think they have the players to finish strong, unless injuries to other teams come into play.

 

The record was almost the same as last year?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Impending doom? My kids go back to school next week!

 

They must feel so lucky: new opportunities to use new codes for punctuation symbols and emojis on their phones to incorporate into text messages!

[Bellhorn04]

It’s already been costly. No one disagrees with that…

 

Yes, it’s already been costly. But if the team makes the playoffs they'll be able to say they did enough good things to overcome it.

 

If they miss the playoffs by 1-3 games, they will not be able to say that.

[Elktonnick]

The record was almost the same as last year?

I think the remaining schedule is tougher this year than last.

[Bellhorn04]

Haven't seen anyone comment on this but I think the Red Sox have the toughest schedule of any team for the rest of the season.

One of the big reasons the Sox record improved so dramatically before the ASB was they played a number of horrible teams.

 

Not exactly. Their good run started in mid-June by taking 4 of 6 from the Phils and Yanks. And they took 2 of 3 from the Yanks the next time they played them.

 

They took 2 of 3 from the Royals directly before the break.

 

This team has been wildly inconsistent in just about every way, which is often the way it goes when you're a little better than a .500 team.

[Bellhorn04]

Should the Sox have done something stupid? Traded Roman Anthony for maybe 15-20 IP from Tanner Scott?

 

Don't be ridiculous. They should have traded Teel for Scott.

[notin]

Don't be ridiculous. They should have traded Teel for Scott.

 

Answering not in green for an obvious reason, but Teel actually probably wouldn’t have gotten it done. Miami received a prospect ranked higher for Scott in Snelling, and his ranking was only a little behind Anthony’s.

 

Now Miami may have different evaluations or might prefer getting a catcher. But going solely by BA rankings, Teel isn’t enough.

 

My Faux Trade suggestion was chosen very specifically…

[notin]

Not exactly. Their good run started in mid-June by taking 4 of 6 from the Phils and Yanks. And they took 2 of 3 from the Yanks the next time they played them.

 

They took 2 of 3 from the Royals directly before the break.

 

This team has been wildly inconsistent in just about every way, which is often the way it goes when you're a little better than a .500 team.

 

The Sox record vs the Yankees and Phillies during this run is better than their record against the White Sox and Rockies.

 

The White Sox are truly awful, having lost 17 in a row, and recently became the first American League team ever to have two losing streaks of 14 games or more in the same season…

[Bellhorn04]

Answering not in green for an obvious reason, but Teel actually probably wouldn’t have gotten it done. Miami received a prospect ranked higher for Scott in Snelling, and his ranking was only a little behind Anthony’s.

 

Now Miami may have different evaluations or might prefer getting a catcher. But going solely by BA rankings, Teel isn’t enough.

 

My Faux Trade suggestion was chosen very specifically…

 

Well then, they should have traded Teel for the best rental pitcher they could get for him.

[mvp 78]

They must feel so lucky: new opportunities to use new codes for punctuation symbols and emojis on their phones to incorporate into text messages!

 

Probably really excited their gyats will see the rizzler again no cap skibidi ohio. Is someone finna fanum tax their fire lunch? Negative 1000 aura.

[mvp 78]

Well then, they should have traded Teel for the best rental pitcher they could get for him.

 

Makes sense as teams are restricted on how many players they can now carry and they just drafted 20 players. Need to get rid of some guys.

[Randy Red Sox]

Answering not in green for an obvious reason, but Teel actually probably wouldn’t have gotten it done. Miami received a prospect ranked higher for Scott in Snelling, and his ranking was only a little behind Anthony’s.

 

Now Miami may have different evaluations or might prefer getting a catcher. But going solely by BA rankings, Teel isn’t enough.

 

My Faux Trade suggestion was chosen very specifically…

 

why is everyone on here so keen to trade 1 or more of our top 3 prospects? They should all be in Boston by this time next year and will all offer significant years of cost control which will please John Henry to no end. We could always add to our P through FA but of course we know Henry is against that philosophy. As long as the team sits around 82-88 wins he knows that RSN will be satisfied.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They're not trading Teel, but don't be surprised if Wong or Jansen is flipped in a package for a legitimate pitcher this winter.

 

Jansen, of course, would have to hit for the next two months to raise his stock... but when the Sox got him, I actually envisioned the deal for Teel's backup, because 1). whenever Teel is promoted, he's not going to sit; and 2) Wong is too good to sit, and must have decent trade value... now.

[mvp 78]

why is everyone on here so keen to trade 1 or more of our top 3 prospects? They should all be in Boston by this time next year and will all offer significant years of cost control which will please John Henry to no end. We could always add to our P through FA but of course we know Henry is against that philosophy. As long as the team sits around 82-88 wins he knows that RSN will be satisfied.

 

The green responses are sarcasm, FYI. I think the majority of what you are reading are in jest.

 

Trade Mayer though.

[mvp 78]

They're not trading Teel, but don't be surprised if Wong or Jansen is flipped in a package for a legitimate pitcher this winter.

 

Jansen, of course, would have to hit for the next two months to raise his stock... but when the Sox got him, I actually envisioned the deal for Teel's backup, because 1). whenever Teel is promoted, he's not going to sit; and 2) Wong is too good to sit, and must have decent trade value... now.

 

Jansen is a free agent this offseason, FYI.

 

Wong/Teel is a fine combination for next year.

[mvp 78]

@remartin_34

In games played at the position of catcher this season (min. 60 G)

 

Connor Wong AL Ranks:

.315 AVG - 1st

.379 OBP- 1st

.470 SLG- 3rd

.849 OPS - 1st

135 wRC+ - 1st

.370 wOBA - 1st

 

Too bad Wong's glove is really bad. He'll be fine as a backup.

[notin]

why is everyone on here so keen to trade 1 or more of our top 3 prospects? They should all be in Boston by this time next year and will all offer significant years of cost control which will please John Henry to no end. We could always add to our P through FA but of course we know Henry is against that philosophy. As long as the team sits around 82-88 wins he knows that RSN will be satisfied.

 

No one wanted to trade one. I just pointed out other teams traded equal prospects for minimal return at the deadline…