A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

he might end up being the best player Bloom ever landed.

 

@SoxNotes

Wilyer Abreu:

 

- Leads qualified rookies in OBP (.412) and is 2nd in AVG (.322)

 

- Is slugging 1.048 in his last 5 games (12-for-21, 6 XBH)

 

- Has a go-ahead RBI in each of his last 6 games

 

- Has a .500 OBP during his 12-game on-base streak

 

- Owns a .903 OPS in 48 career games

[moonslav59]

@SoxNotes

Wilyer Abreu:

 

- Leads qualified rookies in OBP (.412) and is 2nd in AVG (.322)

 

- Is slugging 1.048 in his last 5 games (12-for-21, 6 XBH)

 

- Has a go-ahead RBI in each of his last 6 games

 

- Has a .500 OBP during his 12-game on-base streak

 

- Owns a .903 OPS in 48 career games

 

He's really looking good. I remember many eyes were on Valdez, when the trade was made, but a few baseball insiders said Abreu was the real prize of the trade.

 

He may have some difficulties, going forward, and his defense is not great, but it seems okay, for now.

 

48 games is a small sample size, but it's hard to not get excited about his future with the Sox.

[moonslav59]

Sox fWAR Leaders:

 

Pitching:

1.1 Crawford & Houck

0.5 Slaten

0.4 Whitlock & Pivetta

0.3 Bello

0.2 Bernardino & Winkj

0.1 Martin, Jansen, Criswell, Anderson, Kelly

 

Everyday:

0.9 O'Neill

0.8 Abreu & Wong

0.6 Duran

0.5 Casas

0.4 Refsnyder & Devers

0.2 McGuire

 

Team rankings:

T 20th in everyday player team fWAR

Our C and OF are carrying the O...

1st LF 1.8

T3rd RF 1.2

T5 Catcher 0.9

29th CF -0.6

 

T 23rd DH -0.1

 

Our IF is awful...

T12th 1B 0.2

29th SS -0.4

29th 2B -0.6

30th 3B -0.5

 

SP:

2nd at 3.6 (o.8 ahead of 3rd place)

 

RP:

12th at 0.7

 

2nd overall at 4.3 (PHI is 4.4 and WSH is 3rd at 3.6)

Edited April 25, 2024 by moonslav59

[jgar658]

He's really looking good. I remember many eyes were on Valdez, when the trade was made, but a few baseball insiders said Abreu was the real prize of the trade.

 

He may have some difficulties, going forward, and his defense is not great, but it seems okay, for now.

 

48 games is a small sample size, but it's hard to not get excited about his future with the Sox.

 

Abreu could be a perennial monster hitter if he copies Casas with regards to plate discipline. As of now he has a pretty good eye at the plate.

He has power, can run, a good arm, and so far can catch the ball.

He was lost in spring training and when the season started. Hopefully he is coached properly.

 

I don't think Valdez will get better as a hitter, but it seems his defense has improved.

[moonslav59]

Abreu could be a perennial monster hitter if he copies Casas with regards to plate discipline. As of now he has a pretty good eye at the plate.

He has power, can run, a good arm, and so far can catch the ball.

He was lost in spring training and when the season started. Hopefully he is coached properly.

 

I don't think Valdez will get better as a hitter, but it seems his defense has improved.

 

I don't think Valdez is a sub .500 hitter, and I still have hopes he can be a .725+ hitter, but even that is not good enough to offset his D, improved or otherwise.

 

He likely will never hit well enough to be a DH, and platoon DH's are not in high demand.

[mvp 78]

He's really looking good. I remember many eyes were on Valdez, when the trade was made, but a few baseball insiders said Abreu was the real prize of the trade.

 

He may have some difficulties, going forward, and his defense is not great, but it seems okay, for now.

 

48 games is a small sample size, but it's hard to not get excited about his future with the Sox.

 

His defense is ok, but he takes some unnecessary risks and doesn't have a great arm and below average speed for RF (see Booser's first appearance).

[mvp 78]

Abreu could be a perennial monster hitter if he copies Casas with regards to plate discipline. As of now he has a pretty good eye at the plate.

He has power, can run, a good arm, and so far can catch the ball.

He was lost in spring training and when the season started. Hopefully he is coached properly.

 

I don't think Valdez will get better as a hitter, but it seems his defense has improved.

 

Casas is 39th in the league in bb rate, Abreu is 44th.

[mvp 78]

I don't think Valdez is a sub .500 hitter, and I still have hopes he can be a .725+ hitter, but even that is not good enough to offset his D, improved or otherwise.

 

He likely will never hit well enough to be a DH, and platoon DH's are not in high demand.

 

He should just never ever ever face a LHP. 000 OPS this year vs LHP, 237 career.

[moonslav59]

He should just never ever ever face a LHP. 000 OPS this year vs LHP, 237 career.

 

Agreed.

 

I'm also not so sure about the "improved D," but he had a long way to go to just get to barely acceptable.

 

I do know our 2B fWAR has been 29th since the start of 2023.

 

We need Grissom to come back and just be decent.

[notin]

He should just never ever ever face a LHP. 000 OPS this year vs LHP, 237 career.

 

He probably wouldn't have faced any this year, but for a while there were no other options...

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

I'm also not so sure about the "improved D," but he had a long way to go to just get to barely acceptable.

 

I do know our 2B fWAR has been 29th since the start of 2023.

 

We need Grissom to come back and just be decent.

 

His defense sucked this year.

[mvp 78]

Cora's "everyday DH" is once again riding the pine today.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxpayroll

Masa:

 

4/17 DNP

4/18 DNP

4/19 1-for-3 vs PIT

4/20 3-for-4 vs PIT

4/21 DNP

4/22 Day off

4/23 PH HBP

4/24 DNP

4/25 Not in lineup/DNP

[Duran Is The Man]

Cora's "everyday DH" is once again riding the pine today.

 

hopefully, next year, he'll be riding the pine somewhere else.

[Old Red]

Cora's "everyday DH" is once again riding the pine today.

 

An expensive DH is getting replaced by an even more expensive DH.🙈🤭

[mvp 78]

An expensive DH is getting replaced by an even more expensive DH.

 

Until they find an actual replacement for 3B, Raffy's the guy. I wouldn't move Raffy off 3B until Story's contract ends.

[mvp 78]

hopefully, next year, he'll be riding the pine somewhere else.

 

How much money would Henry have to eat? 80%?

[mvp 78]

Masataka Yoshida

Pablo Reyes

$58M

 

for

 

Reid Detmers

Luis Rengifo

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

An expensive DH is getting replaced by an even more expensive DH.🙈🤭

 

Keep shaking that bush, Coolhand Luke.

 

"I'm shaking it, Boss!"

 

(... Baseball Bush, out of which very few bats fall out; but where there's lots of gloves)

[Duran Is The Man]

How much money would Henry have to eat? 80%?

 

probably not that much, but i don't care. he needs gone. don't know which of Henry's nerds wanted him, but if i was JH, i'd want him gone too.

[Duran Is The Man]

Masataka Yoshida

Pablo Reyes

$58M

 

for

 

Reid Detmers

Luis Rengifo

 

i'd do that, but the Angels won't.

[notin]

Masataka Yoshida

Pablo Reyes

$58M

 

for

 

Reid Detmers

Luis Rengifo

 

Think the pitching-starved Angels might be hesitant to take that for the the only good starter they have produced since, well, who was their last one?

 

Want to dump Yoshida?

 

The Astros will probably take him for Jose Abreu. While Abreu is doing absolutely nothing offensively, his EV (87.2) isn't much different than Yoshida's (88.5). The big difference is Yoshida still hits a few line drives, while Abreu is straight up GB/FB. But both players have a similar AAV, and Abreu isonly signed through 2025 while Yoshida is signed through 2027 and then has one arbitration year (which doesn't mean much, as he could easily be non-tendered if he continues to flounder.). With this difference in AAV (Yoshida - $18, Abreu - $19.5), maybe Houston can add a couple million to balance it out.

 

Trade does not work out at all on BTV, as Abreu's surplus value is -29 and Yoshida's is 3.3.

 

Houston has clearly given up on Abreu and might be interested in this deal just to get away from him and clear a patch for James Loperfido at 1B. Yoshida has no clear spot in their lineup, either, but is the much more likely of the two to rebound, given their hitter profiles and recent performances.

 

And the Sox get a struggling (washed up?) 1B one year removed from a 19 HR season. And hey, he is a step up over Dalbec, as the Sox upgrade from Dalbec's -47 wRC to Abreus's -37.

 

Yoshida strikes me as a tough contract to move, but this is one scenario I can see interesting another team...

Edited April 25, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure anyone wants Yoshida, even if we pay all but $2M a year, which is just $1.2M more than min MLB salary.

 

I'd be willing to take back a high contract in return, if we will use the saved money.

 

Abreu did do okay in the second half of '23, but he is likely toast. I think Yoshida has a better chance of improving than he does.

[Old Red]

Think the pitching-starved Angels might be hesitant to take that for the the only good starter they have produced since, well, who was their last one?

 

Want to dump Yoshida?

 

The Astros will probably take him for Jose Abreu. While Abreu is doing absolutely nothing offensively, his EV (87.2) isn't much different than Yoshida's (88.5). The big difference is Yoshida still hits a few line drives, while Abreu is straight up GB/FB. But both players have a similar AAV, and Abreu isonly signed through 2025 while Yoshida is signed through 2027 and then has one arbitration year (which doesn't mean much, as he could easily be non-tendered if he continues to flounder.). With this difference in AAV (Yoshida - $18, Abreu - $19.5), maybe Houston can add a couple million to balance it out.

 

Trade does not work out at all on BTV, as Abreu's surplus value is -29 and Yoshida's is 3.3.

 

Houston has clearly given up on Abreu and might be interested in this deal just to get away from him and clear a patch for James Loperfido at 1B. Yoshida has no clear spot in their lineup, either, but is the much more likely of the two to rebound, given their hitter profiles and recent performances.

 

And the Sox get a struggling (washed up?) 1B one year removed from a 19 HR season. And hey, he is a step up over Dalbec, as the Sox upgrade from Dalbec's -47 wRC to Abreus's -37.

 

Yoshida strikes me as a tough contract to move, but this is one scenario I can see interesting another team...

 

🤭🙈🤮!

[notin]

I'm not sure anyone wants Yoshida, even if we pay all but $2M a year, which is just $1.2M more than min MLB salary.

 

I'd be willing to take back a high contract in return, if we will use the saved money.

 

Abreu did do okay in the second half of '23, but he is likely toast. I think Yoshida has a better chance of improving than he does.

 

The only reason Houston would even think about it is Yoshida looking more salvageable.

 

But ultimately I suspect it’s more likely Abreu gets DFAd before this season ends…

[Larry Cook]

Would the dodgers by interested in taking back Jansen and Martin for pitching prospects wrobleski and Frasso???

[mvp 78]

Would the dodgers by interested in taking back Jansen and Martin for pitching prospects wrobleski and Frasso???

 

Don't think they are moving Ohtani off of DH.

[Duran Is The Man]

I'm not sure anyone wants Yoshida, even if we pay all but $2M a year, which is just $1.2M more than min MLB salary.

 

I'd be willing to take back a high contract in return, if we will use the saved money.

 

Abreu did do okay in the second half of '23, but he is likely toast. I think Yoshida has a better chance of improving than he does.

 

what i was thinking. but i'd still like to get rid of him for someone worth the money.

[notin]

Don't think they are moving Ohtani off of DH.

 

Why would acquiring relief pitchers Jansen and Martin push Ohtani off DH?

[moonslav59]

The only reason Houston would even think about it is Yoshida looking more salvageable.

 

But ultimately I suspect it’s more likely Abreu gets DFAd before this season ends…

 

They really stuck with Abreu a long time, last year, and it kinda worked out. This year, the leash was shorter, but I would not want Abreu for min wage, right now.

 

He's probably got more upside than Dalbec, but we can do better (like Cooper or Cron.)