A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

if Cal Ripken Jr. had played for the Sox, he would have spent most of career on the IL.

 

LOL. It looks that way!

[notin]

Why?? Dalbec is hitting a robust .031

 

Up thirty one points from a week ago!

[mvp 78]

CJ Cron? At least should be better than Bobby D. Now we’ll see if Brez does more than Bloom did about 1B.

 

Cron hasn't caught on anywhere. No real Spring Training. Would probably need a few weeks in AAA to get up to speed.

[mvp 78]

I'd guess 8-9 weeks plus 20 days rehab, say late June, early July.

 

As Red says, it is time to see what Breslow will do in this case. Dalbec regrettably is not the answer for 2 months. Where is Swihart nowadays?

 

While he's only 32, he last played Indy ball in 2022 and has done zip since.

[mvp 78]

For the second straight game, Ceddanne Rafaela — and not Jarren Duran — is leading off for the Red Sox. He’s at shortstop with Bobby Dalbec at first base and Pablo Reyes playing third. Duran is the center fielder.

 

I really didn't understand why Dalbec was on 3rd and Reyes on 1st the last game. I do think size matters a little bit playing 1st base.

 

Dalbec isn't a great 1B. Reyes isn't a great 3B. Dalbec is an adequate 3B. I can't evaluate Reyes at 1B.

[notin]

Remember when Travis Shaw started the year 0 for 19 with only 7 strikeouts, and that was enough to DFA him despite the only other 1b on the Sox roster having a .457 OPS at the time?

 

Just DFA Dalbec and claim Cooper. Or better yet, complete a trade for Cooper, as he is likely to generate some interest on the waiver wire…

Edited April 24, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

The injury bug is really biting the Sox.

 

60% of the rotation:

Giolito

Pivetta

Whitlock

 

56% of the line-up, including the entire infield:

Devers 3B

Story SS

Grissom 2B

Casas 1B

O'Neill RF

 

Plus, our best sub, Refsnyder missed time.

Our back-up SS (Romy G) is out, just like Chang in '23.

Our 3rd string Catcher (Heineman) is out.

Some pen arms have missed time (Mata, Campbell.)

 

Being 13-11 with all these guys missing time is rather remarkable.

 

We will get some back, soon. (Today)

[notin]

Cron hasn't caught on anywhere. No real Spring Training. Would probably need a few weeks in AAA to get up to speed.

 

He opted out on his own, didn’t he?

 

That may not have worked out so well…

[Bellhorn04]

The injury bug is really biting the Sox.

 

60% of the rotation:

Giolito

Pivetta

Whitlock

 

I think it's really 50% of the rotation, since we still have Bello, Houck and Crawford. Obviously if all were healthy someone would be in the pen.

[Bellhorn04]

He opted out on his own, didn’t he?

 

That may not have worked out so well…

 

But he'll probably get a job anyway.

[notin]

But he'll probably get a job anyway.

 

Had he not opted out, he might have started in MLB last night…

[notin]

I think it's really 50% of the rotation, since we still have Bello, Houck and Crawford. Obviously if all were healthy someone would be in the pen.

 

60% of the Sox projected opening day rotation is injured. Just because the replacement has been healthy doesn’t change this.

[Bellhorn04]

60% of the Sox projected opening day rotation is injured. Just because the replacement has been healthy doesn’t change this.

 

Was Whitlock always projected to be in the rotation ahead of Houck and Crawford?

 

I don't recall that being reported. I think they were all in the mix. Giolito going down simplified matters.

[moonslav59]

Was Whitlock always projected to be in the rotation ahead of Houck and Crawford?

 

I don't recall that being reported. I think they were all in the mix. Giolito going down simplified matters.

 

Either way:

 

We missed or are missing 3 of 5 or 3 of 6 scheduled rotation arms AND 5 of 9 everyday starters. That is or was over half of the starters.

 

On top of that, we had Martin and Jansen, our top 2 RP'ers, miss a lot of ST'ing, and it seems to have affected their numbers out of the gate.

 

Ref was sorely missed.

 

Romy is probably better than DHam, and the Sox mst have thought so. He's out, too.

 

We are having a year like the Yankees.

[Bellhorn04]

Either way:

 

We missed or are missing 3 of 5 or 3 of 6 scheduled rotation arms AND 5 of 9 everyday starters. That is or was over half of the starters.

 

On top of that, we had Martin and Jansen, our top 2 RP'ers, miss a lot of ST'ing, and it seems to have affected their numbers out of the gate.

 

Ref was sorely missed.

 

Romy is probably better than DHam, and the Sox mst have thought so. He's out, too.

 

We are having a year like the Yankees.

 

Yes, it's been brutal. The only positive is that as far as we know everyone except Giolito, Story and Casas should be back fairly soon.

[Old Red]

Was Whitlock always projected to be in the rotation ahead of Houck and Crawford?

 

I don't recall that being reported. I think they were all in the mix. Giolito going down simplified matters.

 

Cora had already said 4 spots for the rotation was already set in ST, and the 5th spot was between Houck, Whit, and Wink. I believe Houck would have gotten that spot, and Whit got in when Gio went down, or would have gotten in when Pivetta went down.

[mvp 78]

He opted out on his own, didn’t he?

 

That may not have worked out so well…

 

He blew the call.

[mvp 78]

Was Whitlock always projected to be in the rotation ahead of Houck and Crawford?

 

I don't recall that being reported. I think they were all in the mix. Giolito going down simplified matters.

 

To me, the last spot was initially between Whitlock and Houck with Crawford as the #4. I think Whitlock showed an improved pitch mix in Spring Training that bumped him over Houck, but we know Whitlock's inability to stay healthy. With Houck's newfound control, he gets the definite edge when factoring in health. Houck has still not pitched 300 career innings in MLB for various reasons (health, effectiveness, pitch mix).

[Old Red]

To me, the last spot was initially between Whitlock and Houck with Crawford as the #4. I think Whitlock showed an improved pitch mix in Spring Training that bumped him over Houck, but we know Whitlock's inability to stay healthy. With Houck's newfound control, he gets the definite edge when factoring in health. Houck has still not pitched 300 career innings in MLB for various reasons (health, effectiveness, pitch mix).

 

I believe Houck has always been ahead of Whit of going into the rotation. It was that way two years ago when Sale went down before the season started, and Whit only got into the rotation, because Houck wasn’t vaxed. Whit said he would rather be the Swiss Army knife, and IMO I think that’s what Cora had in store for him, but injuries changed all of that anyway.

[moonslav59]

Yes, it's been brutal. The only positive is that as far as we know everyone except Giolito, Story and Casas should be back fairly soon.

 

I would say being 13-11 through all this is a second positive.

[moonslav59]

Cancel that. It's much more fun if we ignore that the Sox so far are having a winning season. At 13-11, if they keep that up, they finish with 88 wins as opposed to the top dollar Sox payroll in 2019 when the Sox finished with 84 wins with Mookie, Beni, Bogey, JDM, Devers, Moreland, Price, Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, et al.

 

I think that was the year John Henry fired David Dombrowski, who only needed to add another $50M or more to the top payroll in MLB to get into the 2019 postseason. JH just wanted to be cheap. If you don't want to spend $50M/year more than any other team in MLB, you have no business owning the BoSox.

 

I am happy to give full credit to DD for building the 2018 Sox, almost certainly the best Sox team ever. But that same team disintegrated the next year, going from 108 wins to 84 wins, with basically the same players and same payroll.

 

As for this year's Sox, it's too early to claim anything other than what a surprise the starting pitching has been. The Sox still have the unprecedented lowest ERA in MLB. Meanwhile the hitting is so-so (15th in team OP), the defense stinks (but maybe not lately), as does the baserunning, and sometimes so does the bullpen.

 

I disagree that a Sox GM needs to spend as much as every GM, and certainly not $50M more.

 

There are a few crazy spenders in MLB. Nobody should be expected to match them.

 

That being said, I do think he should spend up to the tax line, every year, at minimum. Going over, when it looks like you just need 2-3 key pieces makes a lot of sense, at least from time to time. Reset, when before you get to year 3 is fine with me.

[dgalehouse]

Another day. Another pitcher on the I.L.

[moonslav59]

Sox looking into CJ Cron

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/red-sox-considering-c-j-cron.html

[Old Red]

Last Man Standing. Now Bello on the IL. What is Bailey doing to all these pitchers? Houck, and the Kut Man is all that’s left of the regular rotation, and the are not even out of April yet.

[redsoxrules]

Well, Bailey is having them throw a lot more off speed pitches. Isn't doing that more prone to injuries?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Last Man Standing. Now Bello on the IL. What is Bailey doing to all these pitchers? Houck, and the Kut Man is all that’s left of the regular rotation, and the are not even out of April yet.

 

Like I said yesterday, we need an entire season of the new pitching strategies to assess how effective it is to the overall fortunes and misfortunes of the team.

 

When Billy Martin managed the A's -- after all their world championship stars were gone because of free agency -- he took over a club that lost 108 and finished dead last in 7th place. The next year Oakland had a winning record, and in two seasons the A's had the best record in baseball. Martin landed on the cover of magazines for his famous style of Billyball...

 

... but part of that was to force all his starting pitchers to throw complete games, and almost all of them burned out too soon.

[dgalehouse]

Occam's Razor would suggest that there might be a connection between the pitch clock and the rash of pitching injuries. It's at least worth looking into.

[notin]

Bello to the IL. Starting rotation catches up to the infield.

 

MLBTR thinks Sox will move Crawford up a day, since they recalled Zack Kelly, who isn’t a starter.

 

Not sure why they’re bumping Crawford up a day, unless they think he’s getting lonely what with all his starter friends on the IL…

[Bellhorn04]

Occam's Razor would suggest that there might be a connection between the pitch clock and the rash of pitching injuries. It's at least worth looking into.

 

It can't be ruled out, but Pedro Martinez and Justin Verlander don't think it's the pitch clock that's the issue. It's that everyone is throwing with maximum velocity and spin on every pitch.

[dgalehouse]

It can't be ruled out, but Pedro Martinez and Justin Verlander don't think it's the pitch clock that's the issue. It's that everyone is throwing with maximum velocity and spin on every pitch.

 

That could be the problem. But the pitch clock is a recent innovation. It should not be dismissed as a cause.