A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

Defense is not that much different, and we've wanted to get Avreu playing time, all spring. With Duran and O'Neill being two of our best O guys, playing Rafaela at SS some games, seems like a logical choice- as is keeping him at one position: CF.

 

You don't think there's a difference between misplaying a ball in Scranton and misplaying a ball in the Bronx?

[Bellhorn04]

What a strange team, these 2024 Red Sox. The starting pitching has been vastly better than expected, elsewhere there are a ton of issues.

 

Personally I don't think this offense is going to get much better than it looks right now.

[Bellhorn04]

notin's idea about extending O'Neill may not be that crazy. We need some freaking RH hitting, no?

[Old Red]

You don't think there's a difference between misplaying a ball in Scranton and misplaying a ball in the Bronx?

 

Big difference just like when Cora was just saying the other day that the team was playing good D in ST. BIG difference.

[moonslav59]

You don't think there's a difference between misplaying a ball in Scranton and misplaying a ball in the Bronx?

 

That's not about being "faster."

[moonslav59]

notin's idea about extending O'Neill may not be that crazy. We need some freaking RH hitting, no?

 

It could just be a 1-2 year extension with bonuses based on playing time.

[Bellhorn04]

It could just be a 1-2 year extension with bonuses based on playing time.

 

I'd like that.

[Old Red]

notin's idea about extending O'Neill may not be that crazy. We need some freaking RH hitting, no?

 

They’ve had no problem getting RHB producing OF the last 3 years. Renfroe, Duvall, and short sample O’Neill. Let’s see how he ends up at the end of the season.

[Bellhorn04]

The speed of the game (batted ball, quickness of players, decision making time), not the length of the game.

 

I'm hoping this is a point that's not actually in dispute...

[mvp 78]

That's not about being "faster."

 

There isn't a difference between playing SS vs the RailRiders or Soto/Judge? Which ball is going to get to you first? They are the #1 team in the AL, so I referenced them.

[mvp 78]

What a strange team, these 2024 Red Sox. The starting pitching has been vastly better than expected, elsewhere there are a ton of issues.

 

Personally I don't think this offense is going to get much better than it looks right now.

 

Breslow focused on fixing the starters and short term results look good. The bullpen is hit or miss and you kind of get that with bullpens.

[Bellhorn04]

They’ve had no problem getting RHB producing OF the last 3 years. Renfroe, Duvall, and short sample O’Neill. Let’s see how he ends up at the end of the season.

 

O'Neill is a much better fielder than Renfroe and much younger than Duvall.

 

Plus I'm desperate to come up with something to talk about with this team.

[jad]

O'Neill is a much better fielder than Renfroe and much younger than Duvall.

 

Plus I'm desperate to come up with something to talk about with this team.

 

As Mrs. Robinson aptly said: "Let's talk about art."

[Old Red]

O'Neill is a much better fielder than Renfroe and much younger than Duvall.

 

Plus I'm desperate to come up with something to talk about with this team.

 

No dispute that O’Neill is a better OF, and if he can match Renfroe’s production that one year then great, but O’Neill has only played 100 games once in his career, so I would wait to see how this season plays out.

[Old Red]

Breslow focused on fixing the starters and short term results look good. The bullpen is hit or miss and you kind of get that with bullpens.

 

The rotation has been better than advertised no doubt, but the BP will most likely not make the season on the innings, and pitches thrown so far pace. Martin is already sore.

[Hugh2]

You don't think there's a difference between misplaying a ball in Scranton and misplaying a ball in the Bronx?

 

The difference is a few hundred miles. I just don't believe a guy can field baseball in multiple positions plus to better defense and then all of a sudden get mixed up by it at the MLB level. I'm also not convinced the bat is ever really there for Rafaela, positional versatility helps his value. I'm 100% for seeing if he can be the full time CF long term, but right now he makes all the sense in the world at SS.

[moonslav59]

There isn't a difference between playing SS vs the RailRiders or Soto/Judge? Which ball is going to get to you first? They are the #1 team in the AL, so I referenced them.

 

Teeny tiny difference in "fast."

 

Other factors, yes.

[mvp 78]

The rotation has been better than advertised no doubt, but the BP will most likely not make the season on the innings, and pitches thrown so far pace. Martin is already sore.

 

The bullpen is 10th in IP. It's not great, but it's not the end of the world now that they carry an extra arm out there. The org has ok depth at reliever too.

[mvp 78]

Teeny tiny difference in "fast."

 

Other factors, yes.

 

You just like being disagreeable I think.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Story was never a good choice for a #3 hitter in the batting order at this point in his career -- or for those of you who think baseball managers at all levels were wrong for over a hundred years making out their line-ups, then Story is an even worse choice as #2 or #5 batter. Low batting averages and high K rates don't keep the line moving.

 

Portland's been going #1-2-3 LHHs Anthony-Mayer-Teel with another LHH Paulino in the mix (RHH Yorke and Jordan clean up... or just follow the top prospects to get them more ABs). In Worcester, the middle of the order bat with the most promise belongs to Hickey, another LHH.

 

If Porland's Big Three do make it down to Boston in a year, no matter who is skipper, the Sox better sign a couple O'Neills or Turners, because there's no way they're batting five lefties in a row, including Duran and Devers, at the top of the order.

 

Southpaw relievers are already carving us up in late innings this year, and sticking Pablo Reyes types in between lefty sticks doesn't seem to affect opposing pitching for some reason.

[notin]

Story was never a good choice for a #3 hitter in the batting order at this point in his career -- or for those of you who think baseball managers at all levels were wrong for over a hundred years making out their line-ups, then Story is an even worse choice as #2 or #5 batter. Low batting averages and high K rates don't keep the line moving.

 

Portland's been going #1-2-3 LHHs Anthony-Mayer-Teel with another LHH Paulino in the mix (RHH Yorke and Jordan clean up... or just follow the top prospects to get them more ABs). In Worcester, the middle of the order bat with the most promise belongs to Hickey, another LHH.

 

If Porland's Big Three do make it down to Boston in a year, no matter who is skipper, the Sox better sign a couple O'Neills or Turners, because there's no way they're batting five lefties in a row, including Duran and Devers, at the top of the order.

 

Southpaw relievers are already carving us up in late innings this year, and sticking Pablo Reyes types in between lefty sticks doesn't seem to affect opposing pitching for some reason.

 

Story may not be a prototypical number 3 hitter even with the new philosophy on batting order, but "that's how it's always been done" is almost always a poor counterargument.

 

The argument for a hitter like him in the spot is he does represent RHH power, and the #3 hitter is the hitter who comes up the most often with no one on base and two outs. The argument against is, that hitter will be third on the team in plate appearances. Story has not done much since coming to Boston, mostly due to being severely limited with playing time, but he was a career .272 hitter with Colorado.

 

For this Sox team, I'm not sure who is a better option, especially after LHH Devers. Yoshida is one guy who might be able to take that role despite hitting left-handed, but he would have to return to being the hitter he was last year between April 23 and July 25 when his OPS was around .940. That's a good prolonged stretch of offensive success. Of course can he do it again and for longer? TBD. He's not off to a great start. Of course, on last April 18, his OPS cratered to .560. So hopefully he is due for another good stretch. Beyond him, not sure who else...

[notin]

There isn't a difference between playing SS vs the RailRiders or Soto/Judge? Which ball is going to get to you first? They are the #1 team in the AL, so I referenced them.

 

Do minor league infields get the same level of care and maintenance as MLB infields? That can make a big difference. I don't know if it is done anymore, but MLB grounds crews used to tailor their infields to meet the capabilities of the infielders. I remember when Detroit had Whitaker and Trammell up the middle, and neither was a bastion of solid range, so there were numerous stories about how the grass on the infield was grown more densely and thickly so as to slow down ground balls. And the infield dirt was not as packed down.

 

I have no idea if any team bothers to pay this level of attention any more. Or if this was all just some legend spread around the league...

[notin]

notin's idea about extending O'Neill may not be that crazy. We need some freaking RH hitting, no?

 

Obviously there is a limit, but if you think this guy can stay close to healthy, extend him before he prices himself out of Henry's comfort zone.

 

I'm thinking 3 year $48mill as a starting point. He's making about $5.75mill now, but has only put up 7.5 bWAR over the past 3 seasons, largely carried by his 6.1 bWAR in 2021. Teoscar Hernandez is a good comp with 8 bWAR in the past 3 seasons, and he got $23.5mill for one year. O'Neill's injury history should affect his AAV, but Hernandez is definitely be his ceiling. If O'Neill prefers years over money, he might go for a multiyear deal now rather than risk being derailed again and taking less than the much more durable Hernandez.

 

But maybe I am not being realistic. mvp comes up with some extension ideas that are probably more realistic, leaving the debate on them only on the minutiae of the offers.

[Bellhorn04]

Teeny tiny difference in "fast."

 

Other factors, yes.

 

It doesn't take much of a noticeable difference to be much more demanding and difficult. Just ask Bobby Dalbec.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Story may not be a prototypical number 3 hitter even with the new philosophy on batting order, but "that's how it's always been done" is almost always a poor counterargument.

 

The argument for a hitter like him in the spot is he does represent RHH power, and the #3 hitter is the hitter who comes up the most often with no one on base and two outs. The argument against is, that hitter will be third on the team in plate appearances. Story has not done much since coming to Boston, mostly due to being severely limited with playing time, but he was a career .272 hitter with Colorado.

 

For this Sox team, I'm not sure who is a better option, especially after LHH Devers. Yoshida is one guy who might be able to take that role despite hitting left-handed, but he would have to return to being the hitter he was last year between April 23 and July 25 when his OPS was around .940. That's a good prolonged stretch of offensive success. Of course can he do it again and for longer? TBD. He's not off to a great start. Of course, on last April 18, his OPS cratered to .560. So hopefully he is due for another good stretch. Beyond him, not sure who else...

 

Just wondering if there's data that explains that #3 hitter statement? If clubs want their best hitters to bat most often, then why would the #3 hit with no one on base and two outs more than anyone else? If teams bat their best hitters as much as possible, compared to where they bat their worst ('03 batting champ Bill Mueller as the exception), it doesn't make sense.

 

Is it because all the #2 Aaron Judges clean up the bases before #3 has a chance, or because they're putting Luis Aparicio and sub-.300 ON BASE % types at the top because they can run (like Boston did)?

 

I've said this before, but if I'm CBO, I make it a priority of getting a RHH power bat to protect Devers, no matter where he bats. Sure there are many more immediate needs for the franchise, but the Red Sox also have to protect their most expensive longterm investment...

 

... if Raffy feels he has to hit 5-run homers for the next five years, his shoulder and back won't last much longer. But Boston will still have to pay him kajillions, either way.

[notin]

]Just wondering if there's data that explains that #3 hitter statement? If clubs want their best hitters to bat most often, then why would the #3 hit with no one on base and two outs more than anyone else?[/b] If teams bat their best hitters as much as possible, compared to where they bat their worst ('03 batting champ Bill Mueller as the exception), it doesn't make sense.

 

Is it because all the #2 Aaron Judges clean up the bases before #3 has a chance, or because they're putting Luis Aparicio and sub-.300 ON BASE % types at the top because they can run (like Boston did)?

 

I've said this before, but if I'm CBO, I make it a priority of getting a RHH power bat to protect Devers, no matter where he bats. Sure there are many more immediate needs for the franchise, but the Red Sox also have to protect their most expensive longterm investment...

 

... if Raffy feels he has to hit 5-run homers for the next five years, his shoulder and back won't last much longer. But Boston will still have to pay him kajillions, either way.

 

THe data points get skewed towards the first inning, the only inning with a known part of the order cming up even before the game starts. And even the best hitters make outs over 55% of the time, the chances of the #3 hitter coming up with no one on and two outs stands as being a minimum 30% in the first inning alone. (And that's if the top two hitters both have OBPs of .450. It gets higher with worse hitters.

 

After the first inning, the hitters due up are not completely random, but they do trend that way as the game goes along.

 

Granted, the hitters in front of the #3 hitter are typically better at OBP than those in front of the #1 hitter. But because he has that chance right away, it skews the data towards #3. But you never have a guaranteed opportunity for the #1 hitter to bat third in any inning.

 

It's also one of the reason leadoff hitters rarely get RBI - they leadoff more innings. And in a season of 600 plate appearances, we know right away they will have 162 plate appearances leading off an inning before any games get played...

[notin]

It doesn't take much of a noticeable difference to be much more demanding and difficult. Just ask Bobby Dalbec.

 

I'll ask him when he busses my table

[Bellhorn04]

THe data points get skewed towards the first inning, the only inning with a known part of the order cming up even before the game starts. And even the best hitters make outs over 55% of the time, the chances of the #3 hitter coming up with no one on and two outs stands as being a minimum 30% in the first inning alone. (And that's if the top two hitters both have OBPs of .450. It gets higher with worse hitters.

 

After the first inning, the hitters due up are not completely random, but they do trend that way as the game goes along.

 

Granted, the hitters in front of the #3 hitter are typically better at OBP than those in front of the #1 hitter. But because he has that chance right away, it skews the data towards #3. But you never have a guaranteed opportunity for the #1 hitter to bat third in any inning.

 

It's also one of the reason leadoff hitters rarely get RBI - they leadoff more innings. And in a season of 600 plate appearances, we know right away they will have 162 plate appearances leading off an inning before any games get played...

 

Yeah, the whole thing about the #3 hitter is perfectly logical yet counter-intuitive at the same time.

[moonslav59]

You just like being disagreeable I think.

 

I can't agree with this.

[moonslav59]

It doesn't take much of a noticeable difference to be much more demanding and difficult. Just ask Bobby Dalbec.

 

Never said it wasn't.