A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

If the Sox have to trade a top prospect for a top SP it will be a failure since it will cost close to the same to extend the P AND cost us a top prospect. Fact is that Henry has become too cheap to spend for a #1 SP and we have no P in the system able to fill that role. Get ready for another last place finish in 2024

 

You can win by trading for aces, but the need to supplement through free agency will always be a need, as well. Only TBR has shown they can keep winning without one of both.

 

We have lived off trading for aces, but only when we had another one, too. Now, we have none, so I agree, one trade for an ace is not enough. If we traded for one and maybe signed Monty, we might have a shot.

 

That ain't happening, from where I sit.

 

[moonslav59]

Who would that be? Mata? Slaten? Bernardino?

 

To me, our 8-9-10-11 RP'ers is one of the few strengths we have. But they are not so good that they could be traded for something all that great.

 

Another strong area is the 1-7 RP'ers, assuming we add a solid innings eater ace or 2 innings eaters SP'ers.

[moonslav59]

Some perspective: JH could sign 6 Yamo's at $333M each and still pocket $1.25B on a $750M investment.

 

One Yamo at $350 should not have been a pipedream.

 

Gray and Monty, either.

Edited January 8, 2024 by moonslav59

[Duran Is The Man]

Some perspective: JH could sign 6 Yamo's at $333M each and still pocket $1.25B on a $750M investment.

 

One Yamo at $350 should not have been a pipedream.

 

Gray and Monty, either.

 

thanks for giving me another reason to hate the greedy motherf***er.

[dgalehouse]

After just falling short in 2003, the Sox went on to win four championships in the next fifteen years. From the greatest comeback in 2004 to the dominance of 2018, it was quite a run. The value of the franchise grew by leaps and bounds . Fan interest was great and is only now starting to diminish. Despite this much success , over this length of time, ownership decided that it was not sustainable and decided to go in a different direction and basically change their system. So far, it has not worked out too well. If this continues, it will be interesting to see if it has any effect on the value of the franchise. So far, it hasn't seemed to hurt their possible selling price.

[Dipre]

If the Sox have to trade a top prospect for a top SP it will be a failure since it will cost close to the same to extend the P AND cost us a top prospect. Fact is that Henry has become too cheap to spend for a #1 SP and we have no P in the system able to fill that role. Get ready for another last place finish in 2024

 

"The sky is falling"

[Dipre]

2004: Pedro and Schilling

2007: Schiling and Beckett

2013: Jake Peavy

2018: Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi.

 

What do all these pitchers have in common?

 

It doesn't matter what's the payroll, it doesn't matter how they acquire talent. Stop equating the hate for the billionaire owner with spending being the secret sauce for a sustained winmer.

 

They need to spend like they're the Boston f***ing Red Sox, but that doesn't mean they have to spend money like they're the Boston f***ing idiots.

[moonslav59]

After just falling short in 2003, the Sox went on to win four championships in the next fifteen years. From the greatest comeback in 2004 to the dominance of 2018, it was quite a run. The value of the franchise grew by leaps and bounds . Fan interest was great and is only now starting to diminish. Despite this much success , over this length of time, ownership decided that it was not sustainable and decided to go in a different direction and basically change their system. So far, it has not worked out too well. If this continues, it will be interesting to see if it has any effect on the value of the franchise. So far, it hasn't seemed to hurt their possible selling price.

 

The NESN viewer share has dropped from a high of 12 in 2007 to a 3.

[cp176]

The NESN viewer share has dropped from a high of 12 in 2007 to a 3.

 

I've decided to change my mindset. When I was a kid we were lovable losers until things got screwed up in 1967. After that year, we had hope - every year we had hope. Before 67, if I had been able to i could have walked into any Sox home game and enjoyed watching without the crowds. I'm looking forward to those days again. Let's go!

[mvp 78]

It was a good bullpen that would be improved by making Houck and Whitlock full time members.

 

It was worth it to see if Whitlock could turn into a #3. I think we've seen that it just doesn't work and his contract is fine for a bullpen arm.

[mvp 78]

At some point this post season , almost every Sox player has been applauded and wanted back for this coming season. Folks, this team has finished dead last for three out of the last four years. It is not all Barraclough's fault. Some of these guys are not very good . And some have somehow become a bit overrated.

 

The 2020 team and the 2023 team shared:

Verdugo, Raffy, Houck, Dalbec, Arroyo and Pivetta. That's it. Dalbec is in AAA. Pivetta is a 5th starter. Arroyo is gone. Houck is a tweener and most just want him in the pen. Verdugo was traded. Is Raffy the overrated one?

[mvp 78]

FWIW Isaiah Campbell exceeded the rookie limits in 2023 but remains the only prospect-type Seattle has traded this offseason in revamping the Mariner lineup under financial constraints.

 

On Friday the Mariners acquired outfielders Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger, as well as veteran starter Anthony DeSclafani, without adding to the 2024 payroll. Spotrac currently projects Seattle with a $117.4 million payroll in 2024, down from the $131.8 million payroll last year.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/seattle-mariners/payroll/

 

upper righthand corner

 

What front office statement has been more frustrating to fans? Boston's "full throttle" or Seattle's "54 percent" sustainability?

 

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1767619/seattle-mariners-jerry-dipoto-apologizes-clarifies/

 

Why has Seattle ownership put its team under financial constraints? They waited a few decades to get to the playoffs and then just decided to pull the plug?

[Hugh2]

It was worth it to see if Whitlock could turn into a #3. I think we've seen that it just doesn't work and his contract is fine for a bullpen arm.

 

 

Houck too, if he could get better stamina or develop another pitch to get thru an order a third time he could a really good starting pitcher.

 

The time for these two has certainly passed. At the absolute very least one of them should be moved to the bullpen permanently.

[mvp 78]

Duran should be the first asset traded. Especially if the plan is to acquire a right fielder. But even if they don’t, Duran is an offensive weapon with no real position in Boston…

 

He would have the same problem with any other team.

[mvp 78]

Houck too, if he could get better stamina or develop another pitch to get thru an order a third time he could a really good starting pitcher.

 

The time for these two has certainly passed. At the absolute very least one of them should be moved to the bullpen permanently.

 

Houck at least was healthy enough to pitch most of the year in the rotation. His ceiling is still the back end of that rotation and is more of a fill in when needed. He'll be 28 and really won't get much better than what he's already shown. Unfortunately, his stuff hasn't really played up as a reliever because teams can just sub in lefties at the end of the game against him.

[Bellhorn04]

In have a feeling the notion about a player being available “for money only” is not viewed by ownership with the same enthusiasm as it is by fans. I might even go so far as to say they might bite it as a negative thing.

 

Stop cheering for Henry's wallet!

[mvp 78]

Stop cheering for Henry's wallet!

 

notin is getting those kickbacks! Maybe coupons for BOGO Fenway Franks.

[FredLynn]

"The sky is falling"

 

As the team is now constructed every other ALE team is better than we are. Henry may have already given up on this season.

[Dipre]

As the team is now constructed every other ALE team is better than we are. Henry may have already given up on this season.

 

It's January 8th

[FredLynn]

It's January 8th

 

And on January 8 every other ALE team is better than us. I recognize the fact that its not a finished product but clearly we are not off to a good start in terms of acquiring the kind of talent we need to compete in our division.

[mvp 78]

And on January 8 every other ALE team is better than us. I recognize the fact that its not a finished product but clearly we are not off to a good start in terms of acquiring the kind of talent we need to compete in our division.

 

Nothing has really changed in the overall projections though. Yanks got Soto, but the pitching is rough. Rays lost Glasnow. O's added nobody. TOR has done nothing. The only difference is that the Yankees added one year of Soto. Should that really make the Sox wet their pants right now? They were already towards the bottom of the division anyway and haven't added much (Gio and minor trades). If they also signed Yamamoto, would they project to be 4th? 3rd? Not 2nd or 1st for sure.

[Old Red]

Nothing has really changed in the overall projections though. Yanks got Soto, but the pitching is rough. Rays lost Glasnow. O's added nobody. TOR has done nothing. The only difference is that the Yankees added one year of Soto. Should that really make the Sox wet their pants right now? They were already towards the bottom of the division anyway and haven't added much (Gio and minor trades). If they also signed Yamamoto, would they project to be 4th? 3rd? Not 2nd or 1st for sure.

 

Yanks got Soto, and Dugy will help them too. Rays lost Glasgow, but they always manage to come up with pitching. The O’s signed Kimbrel, but I don’t know how much help he will be. What the Red will do as they stand now, or what they will look like on March 28 is anyone’s guess, but outside of the SP, and D getting better I can’t see the Sox getting any better.

[moonslav59]

"The sky is falling"

 

The sky fell, already.

[notin]

Stop cheering for Henry's wallet!

 

Not cheering, just questioning differences in our criteria and theirs…

[notin]

And on January 8 every other ALE team is better than us. I recognize the fact that its not a finished product but clearly we are not off to a good start in terms of acquiring the kind of talent we need to compete in our division.

 

And with that, the Sox have been mathematically eliminated…

[mvp 78]

Yanks got Soto, and Dugy will help them too. Rays lost Glasgow, but they always manage to come up with pitching. The O’s signed Kimbrel, but I don’t know how much help he will be. What the Red will do as they stand now, or what they will look like on March 28 is anyone’s guess, but outside of the SP, and D getting better I can’t see the Sox getting any better.

 

Not waiting until ST anymore to judge the roster then?

[mvp 78]

And with that, the Sox have been mathematically eliminated…

 

The season starts with a 10 game West Coast swing. They were eliminated by the schedule makers.

 

The times for the first 3 games of the year:

 

10:10 PM

9:40 PM

9:40 PM

 

Seven of the first ten games start after 9:30PM. WTH?

[Old Red]

Not waiting until ST anymore to judge the roster then?

 

Yes I am, but I’m just saying if the SP, and D aren’t any better I can’t see the team getting any better. Unless Raffy, and Casas gets better on D, and Story stays healthy at SS then it all comes down to SP.

[mvp 78]

Yes I am, but I’m just saying if the SP, and D aren’t any better I can’t see the team getting any better. Unless Raffy, and Casas gets better on D, and Story stays healthy at SS then it all comes down to SP.

 

Story - SS

Rafaela - CF

O'Neillll - LF

Abreu - RF

 

That makes the defense a lot better IMO. There are questions about 2B still, but Ron Washington and others who know Grissom believe that he'll be at least an average 2B which would be much better than they had last year at 2B.

[moonslav59]

2004: Pedro and Schilling

2007: Schiling and Beckett

2013: Jake Peavy

2018: Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi.

 

What do all these pitchers have in common?

 

It doesn't matter what's the payroll, it doesn't matter how they acquire talent. Stop equating the hate for the billionaire owner with spending being the secret sauce for a sustained winmer.

 

They need to spend like they're the Boston f***ing Red Sox, but that doesn't mean they have to spend money like they're the Boston f***ing idiots.

 

It is interesting to look at this list of SP'ers since 2003, not that this is an indicator of what can or should be done, going forward:

 

IP as SP for Sox

2698 Wakefield FA

1517 Lester HG (Home Grown)

1379 Pedro Trade

1240 Beckett Trade

1141 Buchholtz HG

964 Porcello Trade

848 ERod Trade

702 Lackey FA

670 Sale Trade

670 D Lowe Trade

667 Dice K IFA

651 Schilling Trade

579 Price Trade

445 Eovaldi Trade

430> Pivetta Trade

382 Doubront MiLFA

376 Arroyo Waivers

292 Pomeranz Trade

263 Wright Trade

256 Clement FA

231 Wells FA

218 Kelly Trade

209> Bello HG

198> Houck HG

194 Miley Trade

189 Peavy Trade

171 Fossum HG

171> Crawford HG

169 Dempster FA

162 M Perez FA

153 R Hill FA

132 Penny FA

127 Wacha FA

115 B Johnson HG

110 Richards FA

100 R de la Rosa Trade

Notables under 100

96 Paxton FA

91> Whitlock HG

67> Wink HG

 

Now, by fWAR (pitchers with Sox after 2002, but stats from 1995, if they were here before JH)

52 Pedro Trade

28 Lester HG

26 Wake FA

21 Beckett Trade

21 C Sale Trade

15 Schilling Trade

15 ERod Trade

14 Buchholz HG

13 Porcello Trade

10 D Lowe Trade

10 D Price FA

8.7 Lackey FA

8.5 Eovaldi Trade

7.8 Dice-K IFA

5.7 B Arroyo Waivers

5.0 Pivetta Trade

3.9 Houck HG

3.5 Doubront MiLFA

3.1 Pomeranz Trade

3.0 Wells FA

3.0 Hill FA

2.9 Fossum HG

2.8 Clement FA

2.8 Bello HG

2.7 Miley Trade

2.6 Wright Trade

2.5 Crawford HG

Notables under 2.0

1.5 Wacha FA

1.4 Penny FA

1.3 Whitlock

1.1 Peavy

1.1 J Kelly

1.1 M Perez

1.0 Paxton