A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Old Red]

I'm bummed that Stroman might be our best remaining chance at anything near a decent SP'er.

 

I don't see Bauer as an option.

 

Urias looks even worse.

 

The leftovers are Bloom signing types: Paxton, Clevinger, Ryu, Lorenzen, Manaea, A Wood.

 

Yes, trades are still an option, but why trade away the future to still come up short in 2024?

 

It wouldn’t be trading away any future that you are so worried about if you get some here, and now, and also some future coming back too.

[notin]

I'm bummed that Stroman might be our best remaining chance at anything near a decent SP'er.

 

I don't see Bauer as an option.

 

Urias looks even worse.

 

The leftovers are Bloom signing types: Paxton, Clevinger, Ryu, Lorenzen, Manaea, A Wood.

 

Yes, trades are still an option, but why trade away the future to still come up short in 2024?

 

 

Clevinger isn’t horrible…

[Hitch]

I'm bummed that Stroman might be our best remaining chance at anything near a decent SP'er.

 

I don't see Bauer as an option.

 

Urias looks even worse.

 

The leftovers are Bloom signing types: Paxton, Clevinger, Ryu, Lorenzen, Manaea, A Wood.

 

Yes, trades are still an option, but why trade away the future to still come up short in 2024?

 

 

I suppose one reason is because no prospect is a lock and Teel, Mayer and Antony are hugely coveted right now. If any of them drops off significantly, we'd have wished we pulled the trigger.

 

Also, there's nothing saying we won't trade for two starting pitchers a top of rotation type and a 3/4. Unlikely. But you never know.

 

If you want to go full kool aid, maybe we're doing a Dodgers and keeping our powder dry for Soto ha!

[moonslav59]

Espeically when we likely would not buck up to extend any SP we do trade for

 

If we trade for someone with 3 or more years of control, hopefully 4-5, then it might be worth doing it now, even if the 2024 Red Sox are not meant to be seriously contending team.

[moonslav59]

Clevinger isn’t horrible…

 

Kluber didn't look "horrible."

 

I'm just tired of "not horrible" being our ceiling.

[Old Red]

If we trade for someone with 3 or more years of control, hopefully 4-5, then it might be worth doing it now, even if the 2024 Red Sox are not meant to be seriously contending team.

 

Once again you don’t have to wait to be a contending team to make the team better. The longer you wait the more expensive it gets, and we know how JH likes that.

[Bellhorn04]

Trades can be financially expensive too, folks. So if Henry is getting cheap he may not approve of a trade for a pitcher who's going to be expensive to extend.

[moonslav59]

I suppose one reason is because no prospect is a lock and Teel, Mayer and Antony are hugely coveted right now. If any of them drops off significantly, we'd have wished we pulled the trigger.

 

I get the worry about Story at SS, and who might back him up, if he gets hurt or needs to moves back to 2B, but to me, he seems like the top prospect who might bring back the best return.

 

I do see Story at SS as more of a sure bet than Duran, Rafaela and Abrue in our future OF. That makes Anthony a keeper.

 

Teel's trade value is not all that high, now, but having a top catching prospect is something I feel we need to hang onto.

 

Bleis does not have the trade value, right now to count as a blue-chipper. He needs a full season to get a better feel for his true value.

 

I really like Luzardo or Garrett from MIA, but both might not really be as good as they look to be. Luzardo has 3 years and Garrett 5 years of control.

 

I doubt they take Duran plus Wikelman and Perales or Fitts, so it's going to take Mayer.

[moonslav59]

Trades can be financially expensive too, folks. So if Henry is getting cheap he may not approve of a trade for a pitcher who's going to be expensive to extend.

 

Agreed, so maybe we need to trade for an arb guy or even a pre-arb guy with 3-5 years of control.

[Old Red]

Trades can be financially expensive too, folks. So if Henry is getting cheap he may not approve of a trade for a pitcher who's going to be expensive to extend.

 

I get that, but I’ve said right along to trade top prospects for other teams top pitching prospects, and that Henry could be more inclined to go with since it would be just as cheap as to hang to a Mayer type.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, so maybe we need to trade for an arb guy or even a pre-arb guy with 3-5 years of control.

 

And how many realistic trade targets are there in that category, do you think?

[Old Red]

Agreed, so maybe we need to trade for an arb guy or even a pre-arb guy with 3-5 years of control.

 

Now you’re finally getting it.

[Old Red]

And how many realistic trade targets are there in that category, do you think?

 

That’s what Bres, and all his minions get paid the big bucks for to find.

[Bellhorn04]

I get that, but I’ve said right along to trade top prospects for other teams top pitching prospects, and that Henry could be more inclined to go with since it would be just as cheap as to hang to a Mayer type.

 

Of course there was a story early in the offseason that the Red Sox approached the Mariners about young pitchers and were "rebuffed".

[Old Red]

Of course there was a story early in the offseason that the Red Sox approached the Mariners about young pitchers and were "rebuffed".

 

As I’ve said right along I’ve been gong on the assumption that the Red Sox were not going to sign any of the top high priced FA, so what other options are there except to trade?

[moonslav59]

And how many realistic trade targets are there in that category, do you think?

 

Word is the Yanks are looking at Luzardo or Garrett from MIA. I would think we have better prospects to offer.

 

Cease has just 2 years, so I'd like him better than Burnes, but I'd still look for 3+ years.

 

SEA might be looking to trade a Sp'er, but I'm not sure we match up. According to harmony, there is not a single player on the Sox worthy of the SEA 40 man roster.

 

Many trades work out on BTV, but who knows what MIA, SEA, CLE or anyone else wants for a really good pitcher. I've made countless suggestions on that site for pitchers with 3+ years of control, but you never know.

 

MIA did trade Pablo Lopez. I suggested a few for him, before he was traded.

[notin]

And how many realistic trade targets are there in that category, do you think?

 

I’ve named one repeatedly whose been available to Boston in the past…

[moonslav59]

It's highly doubtful we can match up perfectly with MIA on a trade that looks to work for both sides, but they do need OF help or hope.

 

Here are the BTV values:

 

63.3 Luzardo (3 yrs) 91 value -28M contract

57.7 Garrett (5 yrs) 103 value- 45M contract

25.2 Rogers (3 yrs) 32.7 value-7.5 contract

19.6 Cabrera (5 yrs) 39.4-19.8

 

(I would not trade for Cabrera or Rogers, unless it's for the right return)

 

So, we'd need to come up with values between 55-65 to get Luzardo or Garrett.

 

Mayer is not enough, according to BTV. Here are the Sox numbers.

51 Casas

48 Bello

45 Mayer

42 Anthony

34 Duran (seems high)

24 Crawford

22 Houck

22 Bleis

18 Teel

17 Grissom

13 Yorke

12 Rafaela

10 Schreiber

9 Winckowski & Pivetta

8 Abreu & EValdez

 

So, on paper, Mayer (45) + Crawford (24) OR Houck (22) might land us Luzardo.

 

Mayer (45) + Rafaela (12) OR Schreiber (10) might get us Garrett.

 

I'd love to try and trade Duran (34) + Craw (24) or Houck (22) + Schreiber, Wink or Abreu gets it done on BTV, but not in real life.

 

[moonslav59]

Of course there was a story early in the offseason that the Red Sox approached the Mariners about young pitchers and were "rebuffed".

 

Well, go back and offer more...

[moonslav59]

I’ve named one repeatedly whose been available to Boston in the past…

 

E Cabrera might have a chance at becoming a frontline SP'er, but he is far from one, now.

 

Would you give Rafaela + Wink for him?

[notin]

E Cabrera might have a chance at becoming a frontline SP'er, but he is far from one, now.

 

Would you give Rafaela + Wink for him?

 

I could see a Duran trade. Duran is more valuable on BTV right now, but both he and Cabrera have had wild fluctuations on that site…

[moonslav59]

I could see a Duran trade. Duran is more valuable on BTV right now, but both he and Cabrera have had wild fluctuations on that site…

 

I do think Duran is overrated on BTV, but I'd want more than just a 1 for 1 deal.

 

Maybe Duran and Mata for Cabrera and Puk. (We could then trade Jansen elsewhere.)

 

Or Duran for Cabrera and someone else, maybe Cabrera and Berti is not enough return.

[moonslav59]

Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Sox are considered a “long shot” to get Imanaga.

 

Surprise, surprise.

[Bellhorn04]

I could see a Duran trade. Duran is more valuable on BTV right now, but both he and Cabrera have had wild fluctuations on that site…

 

Goldilocks says Cabrera's K/BB ratio is too low.

[Bellhorn04]

Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Sox are considered a “long shot” to get Imanaga.

 

Surprise, surprise.

 

Too home run prone

Too expensive

[moonslav59]

Too home run prone

Too expensive

 

Like Gio?

[Dipre]

Trades can be financially expensive too, folks. So if Henry is getting cheap he may not approve of a trade for a pitcher who's going to be expensive to extend.

 

He's also going to wipe his ass with his hands because toilet paper is expensive

[Bellhorn04]

He's also going to wipe his ass with his hands because toilet paper is expensive

 

He probably does buy the cheap toilet paper.

[mvp 78]

Like Gio?

 

Gio didn’t want 100M. Gio at least has MLB experience and success.

[moonslav59]

Gio didn’t want 100M. Gio at least has MLB experience and success.

 

True.

 

He also has MLB experience of non success.