A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

Realistic View at 2024

 

Not one of you have predicted any of our off season additions.

 

Just tons of BS.

 

Realistic view?

 

SP 1 Bello

SP 2 Giolito

SP 3 Kutter

SP 4 Houck

SP 5 Pivetta

SP 6 Whitlock

Breslow has said that Houck and Whitlock will be stretched in the spring.

 

They also said Winckowski will be stretched out.

[moonslav59]

Hugh, if you agree this current Red Sox roster is even worse than their last two seasons when they were the fifth-best team in the division, then there is nothing wrong with playing the youngsters and giving them the opportunity to develop into full-time big leaguers. This is what bad teams do in a rebuild.

 

Ruining his confidence is overrated. If a player is good enough to excel at various minor league levels and make the majors, then he has earned his chance.

 

Almost all the guys on the MLB-26 have one or two skills that put them above all others in the system. Overall, modern batters swing and miss more than ever before, and fans have grown used to seeing it. But fielders constantly bumbling around on the diamond, misjudging or clanking balls in play, and throwing others away, is must-miss TV.

 

Rafaela's defense alone makes him worth watching.

 

I totally agree with you and Hugh.

 

I'm actually okay with not signing Duvall or trading for a corner OF'er, and giving Abreu a shot in RF (O'Neill in LF.) If Abreu proves he doesn't deserve the position, move O'Neill to RF and let Duran and Ref platoon LF.

 

Mayer may get a late call-up, but he still hasn't shown he can hit AA ball.

 

soxprospects mentioned Teel being more elikely to make the bigs first out of Mayer-Anthony-Teel.

[mvp 78]

And that plan sucks, desperately.

 

And there ain't nuthin' wrong with our bull s***ing anyway.

[moonslav59]

A sham is too expensive for Henry to afford it. It's a sha. It saves a letter.

 

LOL.

 

Ham works, too.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, I never really bought into that either. The only time I think it could really screw with a guy is if they make an insanely aggressive move. Like promoting a guy from A ball to AA, and then straight to the majors after a month. Effectively going from A ball to the majors. Even then, I think the good ones will eventually set them selves right, but that can certainly mess with a kids development.

 

The Angels Way TM.

[mvp 78]

And their hope is that Gio can be traded in July.

 

Damn, they're making me cynical.

 

That's only cause they fired your boy Bloom!

[moonslav59]

Seattle traded 4 guys for Castillo.

 

Then extended him at a reasonable cost- to anyone but JH and the bottom spenders in MLB.

 

I'd trade for Castillo, if SEA would take Duran and others, but I doubt JH likes even his contract. Dumping Yoshida and or Jansen might still not be enough for JH to accept Castillo's deal.

[moonslav59]

Realistic View at 2024

 

Not one of you have predicted any of our off season additions.

 

Just tons of BS.

 

Realistic view?

 

SP 1 Bello

SP 2 Giolito

SP 3 Kutter

SP 4 Houck

SP 5 Pivetta

SP 6 Whitlock

Breslow has said that Houck and Whitlock will be stretched in the spring.

 

I think I heard Wink was going to be stretched out, too.

 

What is it with putting our pitchers through medievil torture?

 

Seriously though, our pen can be a big strength by just keeping as many as these guys in it, as much as possible:

 

Pivetta (OK as the number 4 or 5)

Houck (OK as the number 5, if we can limit him to no more than 18 batter a start.)

Crawford (OK as a number 5, but as a long man in the pen, he looks priceless.)

Whitlock (I would try to never start him, again. Limit him to 1-3 innings per appearance. As much as possible, have him start an inning, freshly)

Winckowski (Fine to stretch him out into a 1-3 innings guy, but don't mess with what worked in '23. KEEP HIM IN THE PEN!)

Murphy, Fitts, Max Castillo, Gambrell and Walter as AAA depth

 

We have a bunch or capable and or promising short guys:

Jansen (if not traded)

Martin (if not traded, now or at deadline)

Schreiber

Bernardino

Slaten & Mata

Campbell & Criswell

Kelly & Weissert as extended depth

Guerrero and others as hopefuls

 

 

[mvp 78]

Then extended him at a reasonable cost- to anyone but JH and the bottom spenders in MLB.

 

I'd trade for Castillo, if SEA would take Duran and others, but I doubt JH likes even his contract. Dumping Yoshida and or Jansen might still not be enough for JH to accept Castillo's deal.

 

They already had Kelenic, why would they want Duran???

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think I heard Wink was going to be stretched out, too.

 

What is it with putting our pitchers through medievil torture?

 

 

 

Great line. They just announced more Fenway renovations -- installation of Iron Maidens in every box seat, so fans can get really locked in watching alleged big league Red Sox pitchers.

 

And they can never leave...

[mvp 78]

Great line. They just announced more Fenway renovations -- installation of Iron Maidens in every box seat, so fans can get really locked in watching alleged big league Red Sox pitchers.

 

And they can never leave...

 

Excellent!!!

[moonslav59]

You guys crack me up!

[notin]

That's what the market bears. Pitching is EXPENSIVE. You pay in cash or in players.

 

You can get by with cheaper SP if you excel with the bullpen and defense. The Sox bullpen is good but too heavy with 2 unknowns at the back end. The defense with Story and Grissom is a lesser grade of atrocious. Throw in Rafaela (if he starts) and it might upgrade to “almost acceptable.” But not enough to overcome the rotation…

[harmony]

They already had Kelenic, why would they want Duran???

The Seattle Mariners have already replaced Jarred Kelenic with Luke Raley.

 

FanGraphs projects Jarren Duran with a 2024 WAR of 1.3 in 125 games, Kelenic with a 2024 WAR of 1.2 in 123 games and Raley with a 2024 WAR of 1.2 in 102 games.

[notin]

The Angels Way TM.

 

Nationals made it work with Soto.

 

The Angels Way is actually to sign a player to a nine figure deal and then immediately cripple him…

[notin]

The Seattle Mariners have already replaced Jarred Kelenic with Luke Raley.

 

FanGraphs projects Jarren Duran with a 2024 WAR of 1.3 in 125 games, Kelenic with a 2024 WAR of 1.2 in 123 games and Raley with a 2024 WAR of 1.2 in 102 games.

 

That’s because Steamer is projecting Duran as a CF and Raley as a LF. If Duran was projected as a LF, his defensive contributions would improve noticeably…

[Hitch]

 

Teel's trade value is not all that high, now, but having a top catching prospect is something I feel we need to hang onto.

 

 

I don't agree at all. Any team would snatch our hand off for him.

[moonslav59]

You can get by with cheaper SP if you excel with the bullpen and defense. The Sox bullpen is good but too heavy with 2 unknowns at the back end. The defense with Story and Grissom is a lesser grade of atrocious. Throw in Rafaela (if he starts) and it might upgrade to “almost acceptable.” But not enough to overcome the rotation…

 

I do think Slaten & Mata are two "unknowns," but it is likely only one breaks camp with the big team, and I think we have much better AAA and even AA depth, than 2023. Hopefully we don't use 28 pitchers in relief, again.

 

Assuming the worst: we add no new SP'ers, our pen could get taxed.

 

Assuming we add 1 innings eating SP'er, our healthy staff might look like this on opening day:

 

SP1 _____

SP2 Bello

SP3 Giolito

SP4 Pivetta

SP5 Houck (maybe Crawford)

 

RP1 Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Winckowski

RP4 Crawford/Houck

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Schreiber

RP7 Bernardino

RP8 Slaten or Mata (neither can be sent to minors)

AAA

Campbell is probably better than Slaten & Mata

Criswell might be better than both

Murphy & Walter should be long men depth, as well as Fitts & Gambrell (spot starts?)

Kelly & Weissert are extended depth

Guerrero, Benitez and Olivares show some promise.

 

To me, these guys all look way better than this:

2023 IP

31 Bleier 5.28

30 Llovera 5.46

27 Jacques 5.06

23 K Ort 6.26

21 Brasier 7.29

18 Garza 7.36

12 Robertson 6.00

11 Joely 6.55

9 Weiss 2.08

8 Bearclaw 12.91

7 Sherriff 2.70

4 Dermody 4.0, Scott 4.91

3 Littell 4.91

2 Faria 22.50, Lament 13.50, Reyes 4.50

 

That's over 200 IP of putricity.

Granted, many of those IP'd were mop ups, but hopefully with the guys I listed, we won't need mop ups as much.

 

Even if 3-4 guys are on the IL, I think we should keep the number of RP'ers needed to 20 or lower- not 28, like 2023.

[Old Red]

That's what the market bears. Pitching is EXPENSIVE. You pay in cash or in players.

 

And does it look like JH is going to pay in cash?

[notin]

And does it look like JH is going to pay in cash?

 

See, I think he’s only looking for players willing to pitch for what he carries in cash…

[moonslav59]

I don't agree at all. Any team would snatch our hand off for him.

 

I agree that his value is higher than BTV gives him. Many teams would give a nice return for his promise.

 

I do not think trading him makes sense.

 

Our catching tandem has promise, but not the ceiling he seems to have.

 

If he Teels fizzles out, we may regret not trading him, but I see hsi value to us and his trade value increasing during and after next this season.

 

I feel Anthony's value rises, too.

 

I'm not sure about Mayer and Bleis.

[mvp 78]

You can get by with cheaper SP if you excel with the bullpen and defense. The Sox bullpen is good but too heavy with 2 unknowns at the back end. The defense with Story and Grissom is a lesser grade of atrocious. Throw in Rafaela (if he starts) and it might upgrade to “almost acceptable.” But not enough to overcome the rotation…

 

You can "get by" but it's not going to get you to do much in the playoffs IMO. On paper, this team could be better than last year just because we could expect an increase in performance as younger players can get better. IDK. I think I said last season was 84 win, this feels like 81-81 at the moment. They need another arm to get them to 84 win territory.

[mvp 78]

Nationals made it work with Soto.

 

The Angels Way is actually to sign a player to a nine figure deal and then immediately cripple him…

 

Yes, it works for one of the greatest players in the league.

[mvp 78]

And does it look like JH is going to pay in cash?

 

There is some sort of budget. 200M? Crag needs to figure out how to pay 26 guys an average of 7.5M. Should be doable.

[mvp 78]

See, I think he’s only looking for players willing to pitch for what he carries in cash…

 

Pitchers aren't willing to pitch for ass or grass anymore.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure about Mayer and Bleis.

 

Bleis is too far away and coming off an injury plagued season. His trade value is low as all get out right now.

 

Mayer's value is about as strong as it will get unless he really mashes this year and marches towards MLB. At that point, Sox would be silly to trade him.

[notin]

Pitchers aren't willing to pitch for ass or grass anymore.

 

There are no more Spacemen…

[notin]

There is some sort of budget. 200M? Crag needs to figure out how to pay 26 guys an average of 7.5M. Should be doable.

 

I’ll play for $2mill if it helps…

[Hitch]

I agree that his value is higher than BTV gives him. Many teams would give a nice return for his promise.

 

I do not think trading him makes sense.

 

Our catching tandem has promise, but not the ceiling he seems to have.

 

If he Teels fizzles out, we may regret not trading him, but I see hsi value to us and his trade value increasing during and after next this season.

 

I feel Anthony's value rises, too.

 

I'm not sure about Mayer and Bleis.

 

Agreed. Out of the big 3, I think Mayer is the one I'd be okay with us trading. I'd rather we kept Antony and Teel.

 

Bleis I'm really excited about, but we need another year to know for sure after his injury.

[moonslav59]

You can "get by" but it's not going to get you to do much in the playoffs IMO. On paper, this team could be better than last year just because we could expect an increase in performance as younger players can get better. IDK. I think I said last season was 84 win, this feels like 81-81 at the moment. They need another arm to get them to 84 win territory.

 

Seems about right.

 

Replacing the O from Turner and Duval might be done with O'Neill more PAs from Story and upticks by some kids, but on paper, I'm thinking it's a stretch to call that even.

 

While Paxton and Sale had their issues, they did give us 39 starts and 200 IP, combined. Gio might get 32-33 starts and the 4.40 ERA those two combined for, but I think our rotation is still worse than 2023's.

 

81 seems about right, although I might give a range of 78-81, but maybe some moves will bring that projection up.