A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

Abreu is miles better than Verdugo? Rafaela is miles better than Judge? O'Neill is miles better than Soto? I don't know about that. I have hardly seen those Sox outfielders play. I have seen plenty of the Yankee outfielders. How do you figure ? Metrics? Scouting reports? It just sounds like false bravado to me. And as far as hitting, it is not even comparable. This place is getting ridiculous. Even the simplest, most obvious statements are disputed by the intelligentsia.

 

Soto is a horrific defender. Judge is fine. Verdugo's defense was overrated as hell in RF (career -2 OAA). He was good, but not GG worthy as some people thought.

[mvp 78]

O’Neill-Rafaela-Duvall and nothing touched grass all year…

 

That'd be a good defense. Who knows if O'Neill can stay healthy and how to work Duran in.

[mvp 78]

I always ask myself: WWBTVD? What would BTV do? I wonder what BTV would say about trading O'Neill, Abreu and Rafaela for Judge, Soto and Verdugo. They would probably want the Yanks to throw in Dominguez to even it up. I think some folks here are just bored and going stir crazy. Drifting away from reality.

 

Yes, the Sox can put up a better defensive OF than the Yanks this year. No, they can't compete offensively with their OF.

[notin]

That'd be a good defense. Who knows if O'Neill can stay healthy and how to work Duran in.

 

That’s why I put O’Neill in RF and call up Abreu if/when he gets hurt…

[mvp 78]

The zRed Sox have finished with a losing last place in the Div finish the last two years with Cora at the helm. They’ve won a WS with a loaded team, and they’ve sucked without one. Simple as that.

 

I wouldn't say the 2013 team was loaded, but ok. This team is clearly not going to be loaded in 2024. The owners don't want it to be.

[notin]

I always ask myself: WWBTVD? What would BTV do? I wonder what BTV would say about trading O'Neill, Abreu and Rafaela for Judge, Soto and Verdugo. They would probably want the Yanks to throw in Dominguez to even it up. I think some folks here are just bored and going stir crazy. Drifting away from reality.

 

 

I was just thinking the same thing…

[dgalehouse]

Cardinals hired Bloom as an " advisor".

[notin]

Yes, the Sox can put up a better defensive OF than the Yanks this year. No, they can't compete offensively with their OF.

 

That was a good take. Now can you say it again, but with more panic?

[mvp 78]

It should be assumed that you want a productive outfield. Ideally, you want good hitters who can play defense.

 

And yet they are stuck managing Duran and Masa, two very flawed players in their OF. Maybe Rafaela figures out how to hit and Duran is expendable? Maybe the Sox add an additional RHB for one of the corner OF positions (not Refsnyder because he can't field or hit RHP)? The goal should be to get the OF to be average and then go from there.

[oldtimer]

It doesn't look like we are doing much with the FA path this year so perhaps Breslow will complete advantageous trades. I would like to see some actions in January as of this date we appear to be no better than last year, maybe worse. We have some surplus in the outfield and perhaps Mayer will become trade bait.

[mvp 78]

That was a good take. Now can you say it again, but with more panic?

 

Too tired.

[moonslav59]

I always ask myself: WWBTVD? What would BTV do? I wonder what BTV would say about trading O'Neill, Abreu and Rafaela for Judge, Soto and Verdugo. They would probably want the Yanks to throw in Dominguez to even it up. I think some folks here are just bored and going stir crazy. Drifting away from reality.

 

BTV bases value on production estimate value - contract value:

 

23.8 Soto (1 yr left)

4.8 Verdugo (1 yr left)

2.9 Judge (due to 8 years of massive contract)

 

34.0 Duran (5 yrs of pre-arb and arb)

12.3 Rafaela (6 yrs)

7.8 Abreu (6 yrs)

5.7 O'Neill (1 yr)

3.3 Yoshida (4 yrs) seems like a gift

1.0 Refsynder (2 yrs)

 

Prospects:

41.8 Anthony

21.5 Bleis

 

This is not in anyway saying our OF is better than theirs.

 

BTV values/years:

NYY

323/8 Judge (40.4 per season)

57/1 Soto

14/1 Dugo

Total: 111 for 2024

 

BOS

60/5 Duran (12 per season)

11/1 O'Neill (11 per season)

18/6 Rafaela (3 per season)

25/6 W Abreu (4 per season)

Total of best 3 OF'ers for 2024: 30

 

Way short of the overall Yankees level.

[notin]

And yet they are stuck managing Duran and Masa, two very flawed players in their OF. Maybe Rafaela figures out how to hit and Duran is expendable? Maybe the Sox add an additional RHB for one of the corner OF positions (not Refsnyder because he can't field or hit RHP)? The goal should be to get the OF to be average and then go from there.

 

 

The Sox won 78 games last year with no regular 2b, no one capable of playing CF, the worst SS in the league, and no starting pitchers anyone thinks rate higher than a #3. All while playing in a division where no rival team was even at .500, let alone below.

 

If they bump up that starting pitching, they may have addressed a vast number of these flaws. And yet the consensus is still that they got worse…

[Hugh2]

Abreu is miles better than Verdugo? Rafaela is miles better than Judge? O'Neill is miles better than Soto? I don't know about that. I have hardly seen those Sox outfielders play. I have seen plenty of the Yankee outfielders. How do you figure ? Metrics? Scouting reports? It just sounds like false bravado to me. And as far as hitting, it is not even comparable. This place is getting ridiculous. Even the simplest, most obvious statements are disputed by the intelligentsia.

 

I wouldn't say Abreu is miles ahead of Verdugo because I haven't seen him. But O'Neill and Rafaela pass both the EYE test and the defensive metrics test. O'Neill and Rafaela are good defenders, Rafaela might win a gold glove if he gets the chance to start. MVP gives Judge too much credit, he's not a butcher but I'd call him a below average defender. Or maybe I give him too little because he was good at one point, but his defense has declined.

 

Look I get it, the Yankees outfield is better, NO ONE is disputing that. You have to score at least 1 run to win a game, but on the defensive side of the ball our outfield, or at least THAT outfield would be better.

 

It's entirely possibly to have a s*** team and have something better than someoen else.

Edited January 8, 2024 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[notin]

Soto is a horrific defender. Judge is fine. Verdugo's defense was overrated as hell in RF (career -2 OAA). He was good, but not GG worthy as some people thought.

 

Verdugo did have a good defensive season last year. Players have good and bad seasons with the glove as well as with the bat…

[Hugh2]

Of course, we won't see that alignment, unless Abreu establishes himself as a big leaguer, O'Neill stays healthy, and Rafaella gets the call up and sticks as a starter. But defensively that would be a very good outfield.

[moonslav59]

And yet they are stuck managing Duran and Masa, two very flawed players in their OF. Maybe Rafaela figures out how to hit and Duran is expendable? Maybe the Sox add an additional RHB for one of the corner OF positions (not Refsnyder because he can't field or hit RHP)? The goal should be to get the OF to be average and then go from there.

 

O'Neill might be a plus on O and would be on D, if he played in LF. The problem is, just about all our OF'ers but Rafeala look best in LF or DH (Yoshida, Refsnyder, Duran).

 

Abreu might be plus on O and plus on D, but we don't know.

 

Rafaela in big plus on D and largely unknown on 0. Some might project poor or inconsistent O.

 

Duran might end up okay on D, some year, but likely only in LF. His offense is a coin toss.

 

Yoshida sucks on D, even LF at Fenway. His O may improve, but who knows?

 

Ref sucks on D and can only hit LHPs.

 

We need OF'ers who can both hit and play D. We might have 3 (O'Neill, Abreu & Rafaela,) but that could easily be wishful thinking- not reality.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo did have a good defensive season last year. Players have good and bad seasons with the glove as well as with the bat…

 

He should be fine in Yankee Stadium's short RF, although his metrics might suffer from that.

 

Not counting salary, BTV has Dugo (14) and O'Neill (11) pretty close.

[notin]

It doesn't look like we are doing much with the FA path this year so perhaps Breslow will complete advantageous trades. I would like to see some actions in January as of this date we appear to be no better than last year, maybe worse. We have some surplus in the outfield and perhaps Mayer will become trade bait.

 

Don’t trade Mayer. If Story gets hurt again, he might be needed by July.

 

1. Sign one SP. Imanaga? Stroman? Snell? Montgomery? All still out there.

2. Trade Duran for a SP. Miami and Cleveland are the logical partners.

3. Sign Duvall for RF.

 

I suppose Duran might be movable for a catcher if need be. I like Wong, but is he a 130 game starter?

[Hugh2]

He should be fine in Yankee Stadium's short RF, although his metrics might suffer from that.

 

Not counting salary, BTV has Dugo (14) and O'Neill (11) pretty close.

 

 

The same way Yoshidas metrics suffer in LF at Fenway. Not that he's a great defender anywhere else, but Fenway does punish him. I wonder how he looks year two.

[Hugh2]

Don’t trade Mayer. If Story gets hurt again, he might be needed by July.

 

1. Sign one SP. Imanaga? Stroman? Snell? Montgomery? All still out there.

2. Trade Duran for a SP. Miami and Cleveland are the logical partners.

3. Sign Duvall for RF.

 

I suppose Duran might be movable for a catcher if need be. I like Wong, but is he a 130 game starter?

 

Imagine trading Mayer and Story going down, if anything Grissom makes Yorke expandable, or a SS further away.

[Old Red]

I wouldn't say the 2013 team was loaded, but ok. This team is clearly not going to be loaded in 2024. The owners don't want it to be.

 

Cora wasn’t the Manager in 2013. I was talking about Cora as the manager the Red Sox have finished last the last two years, and won in 2018 with a loaded team. If Cora leaves after this year I don’t see it would make that much difference.

[Old Red]

Don’t trade Mayer. If Story gets hurt again, he might be needed by July.

 

1. Sign one SP. Imanaga? Stroman? Snell? Montgomery? All still out there.

2. Trade Duran for a SP. Miami and Cleveland are the logical partners.

3. Sign Duvall for RF.

 

I suppose Duran might be movable for a catcher if need be. I like Wong, but is he a 130 game starter?

Mayer hasn’t come close to making it out of Portland yet.

[Hitch]

Don’t trade Mayer. If Story gets hurt again, he might be needed by July.

 

1. Sign one SP. Imanaga? Stroman? Snell? Montgomery? All still out there.

2. Trade Duran for a SP. Miami and Cleveland are the logical partners.

3. Sign Duvall for RF.

 

I suppose Duran might be movable for a catcher if need be. I like Wong, but is he a 130 game starter?

 

Imanaga looks set for SF.

A lot of journos tweeting Monty wants to go back to Texas.

Can't see us going near Stroman or Snell.

 

Looks like trade only, is most likely.

 

In terms of trades, Dodgers are coming up in a few people's idea of a good trade partner for Jansen. I wonder what we'd look to get back in that deal.

[Old Red]

Verdugo did have a good defensive season last year. Players have good and bad seasons with the glove as well as with the bat…

 

For the ones who didn’t think Dugy could play RF in Fenway he did a pretty good job last year. I don’t think he was overrated.

[Old Red]

You just asked how the D could be better. I listed a lineup. Like WTH? It's not like the Opening Day lineup is what Cora will run out there for 162. Wasn't Arroyo playing RF on Opening Day one year?

 

I didn’t ask how the D could get better. I said if it doesn’t get better with the SP the team won’t get any better. It’s been discussed many times how the D could get better.

[moonslav59]

Don’t trade Mayer. If Story gets hurt again, he might be needed by July.

 

1. Sign one SP. Imanaga? Stroman? Snell? Montgomery? All still out there.

2. Trade Duran for a SP. Miami and Cleveland are the logical partners.

3. Sign Duvall for RF.

 

I suppose Duran might be movable for a catcher if need be. I like Wong, but is he a 130 game starter?

 

Of course that makes sense, but when has sense had anything to do with what we actually do?

 

Signing Monty, Snell, Imanaga or even Stroman would be a huge step, even if we have to trade Yoshi or Jansen to clear budget space to convince JH to say yes.- I do NOT think it happens.

 

I don't think Duran plus 2 non top 4-5 prospects gets us the type of pitcher we need.

 

Now, if we do get one of those 4 FA pitchers, that sort of trade might get us a complimentary SP that might make us competitive.

 

I'd be fine with Duvall in RF, O'Neill in LF and Rafaela and Abreu fighting it out for CF, although neither can really be counted on as "the man." Having 2 increases the odds one will work, but who knows?

 

I'm fine with not trading Mayer (no way I trade Anthony or Teel, and Bleis needs a full year to gauge more,) but only because I have very little optimism we try to win in 2024. Might as well wait to make a trade like that until we are set up to win.

 

If we want to win in 2024, I think we need to...

Sign Monty, Snell or Imanaga

Trade Mayer for Luzardo or Garrett types

Sign Duvall or trade Duran plus others for someone who can hit and defend RF well.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Imanaga looks set for SF.

A lot of journos tweeting Monty wants to go back to Texas.

Can't see us going near Stroman or Snell.

 

Looks like trade only, is most likely.

 

In terms of trades, Dodgers are coming up in a few people's idea of a good trade partner for Jansen. I wonder what we'd look to get back in that deal.

 

I'm bummed that Stroman might be our best remaining chance at anything near a decent SP'er.

 

I don't see Bauer as an option.

 

Urias looks even worse.

 

The leftovers are Bloom signing types: Paxton, Clevinger, Ryu, Lorenzen, Manaea, A Wood.

 

Yes, trades are still an option, but why trade away the future to still come up short in 2024?

 

[Randy Red Sox]

I'm bummed that Stroman might be our best remaining chance at anything near a decent SP'er.

 

I don't see Bauer as an option.

 

Urias looks even worse.

 

The leftovers are Bloom signing types: Paxton, Clevinger, Ryu, Lorenzen, Manaea, A Wood.

 

Yes, trades are still an option, but why trade away the future to still come up short in 2024?

 

 

Espeically when we likely would not buck up to extend any SP we do trade for

[notin]

Mayer hasn’t come close to making it out of Portland yet.

 

That can change rapidly…