Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

Lauer to me is like Plan C.

 

Montgomery is top choice, but I get passing if his demands are crazy or you like next year’s class better. Clevinger is Plan B. Then Lauer. Or do something Bloom always avoided doing - sign a reliever to backfill Houck’s spot in the pen

 

Agreed, and I'd rather sign a guy like Lauer and let Abreu & Rafaela play more OF, than sign Soler or Duvall.

[moonslav59]

Well that brings into question exactly how you define 'overpay'. Compared to what? What's the point of reference? The average Joe would say all these guys are ridiculously overpaid.

 

It's pretty much a different opinion for every person.

 

When compared to arb players, almost all FA are paid more, so I get your point about comparative signings based on past production and projected future value. In that sense, Price got about what "the going rate" was for stars like he was.

 

Was he worth 2.5 x what Porcello got? I could see the justification for that. (It was more like 1.5 x the AAV.)

 

I thought he was overpaid. Maybe you don't.

 

I thought it was worth it. I don't think he was, now.

 

He helped us get a ring, so I am grateful we had enough funds to have him as insurance.

[Bellhorn04]

It's pretty much a different opinion for every person.

 

When compared to arb players, almost all FA are paid more, so I get your point about comparative signings based on past production and projected future value. In that sense, Price got about what "the going rate" was for stars like he was.

 

Was he worth 2.5 x what Porcello got? I could see the justification for that. (It was more like 1.5 x the AAV.)

 

I thought he was overpaid. Maybe you don't.

 

I thought it was worth it. I don't think he was, now.

 

He helped us get a ring, so I am grateful we had enough funds to have him as insurance.

 

I just think you have to compare his contract to others with similar profiles, as contemporaneous as possible, and you've got perfect comps in Scherzer and Greinke. Scherzer outperformed his contract, but that's a whole different matter. That's just the luck of the draw.

[notin]

Michael Wacha is 25-6 over the past two seasons. 88-54 lifetime. But as the more astute posters will tell you, wins and losses do not matter.

 

Over the last two seasons:

 

Blake Snell 22-19

Jordan Montgomery 19-17

Aaron Nola 23-22

Shohei Ohtani 25-14

Sonny Gray 16-13

 

Apparently every team in MLB made some crazy choice by avoiding Wacha to focus on these pitchers.

 

I assume you’ll be putting heavy money on the Royals in 2024, with their staff anchored by Wacha (25-6) and Kyle Wright (22-8), both clearly better than all the pitchers above…

[moonslav59]

I just think you have to compare his contract to others with similar profiles, as contemporaneous as possible, and you've got perfect comps in Scherzer and Greinke. Scherzer outperformed his contract, but that's a whole different matter. That's just the luck of the draw.

 

Comparing to other like pitchers, who signed around the same time is a valid point, but if someone thinks all 3 were overpaid, it doesn't matter all that much.

 

I brought up how Price did not earn his contract. You bring up how Scherzer did, and yes, luck is a big factor.

 

Looking at the signing, when it was made, and I felt Price had about as nice of a record you could ever hope for. No looming injury issues. He was projected to make a major impact on any team that signed him. I was surprised and shocked we signed him, after the Lester and no over 30 issues. I was glad we signed him, but I knew he'd become a drain on the budget, eventually. I did not expect him to give us just 350 innings years 2-4, but that is hindsight.

 

I felt the 7 years would be a problem, but that's what it took to get him, and I was okay with it, despite knowing it was too much for too long.

 

[moonslav59]

Over the last two seasons:

 

Blake Snell 22-19

Jordan Montgomery 19-17

Aaron Nola 23-22

Shohei Ohtani 25-14

Sonny Gray 16-13

 

Apparently every team in MLB made some crazy choice by avoiding Wacha to focus on these pitchers.

 

I assume you’ll be putting heavy money on the Royals in 2024, with their staff anchored by Wacha (25-6) and Kyle Wright (22-8), both clearly better than all the pitchers above…

 

We should have brought ERod back.

 

In his starts the team went...

 

19-4 in '18

26-8 in '19

(0-0 in the COVID season)

19-12 in '21

 

Of course, wins are team numbers, and he went 20-23 w DET in '22-'23.

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Over the last two seasons:

 

Blake Snell 22-19

Jordan Montgomery 19-17

Aaron Nola 23-22

Shohei Ohtani 25-14

Sonny Gray 16-13

 

Apparently every team in MLB made some crazy choice by avoiding Wacha to focus on these pitchers.

 

I assume you’ll be putting heavy money on the Royals in 2024, with their staff anchored by Wacha (25-6) and Kyle Wright (22-8), both clearly better than all the pitchers above…

 

If you were in the Chicago area in 1973, you must have loved Wilbur Wood when he won 24 games!

 

If you were in the Chicago area in 1973, you must have hated Wilbur Wood when he lost 20 games!

 

... of course, Wood only worked 359.1 innings pitched in '73.

 

The year before, he threw 376.2 -- which is more than the Red Sox' top three starters combined in IP, half a century later.

[moonslav59]

If you were in the Chicago area in 1973, you must have loved Wilbur Wood when he won 24 games!

 

If you were in the Chicago area in 1973, you must have hated Wilbur Wood when he lost 20 games!

 

... of course, Wood only worked 359.1 innings pitched in '73.

 

The year before, he threw 376.2 -- which is more than the Red Sox' top three starters combined in IP, half a century later.

 

It's weird how even Price's 230 IP in 2016 has not been topped, since.

 

229 Alcantara '22

223 Verlander '19

221 Scherzer '18

217 deGrom '18

216 Webb '23

215 Kluber '18

214 Sale '17

[notin]

If you were in the Chicago area in 1973, you must have loved Wilbur Wood when he won 24 games!

 

If you were in the Chicago area in 1973, you must have hated Wilbur Wood when he lost 20 games!

 

... of course, Wood only worked 359.1 innings pitched in '73.

 

The year before, he threw 376.2 -- which is more than the Red Sox' top three starters combined in IP, half a century later.

 

I think I’m 1973, half the pitchers on the league had 35 decisions.

 

Fergie Jenkins was 14-16 that year. Tied for 13th in MLB in losses. Tied for 35th (

[notin]

It's weird how even Price's 230 IP in 2016 has not been topped, since.

 

229 Alcantara '22

223 Verlander '19

221 Scherzer '18

217 deGrom '18

216 Webb '23

215 Kluber '18

214 Sale '17

 

That entire list except Scherzer and Webb has had TJ surgery since that season. And Webb’s case, it might only be because he hasn’t had a chance yet…

Edited February 2, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

That entire list except Scherzer and Webb has had TJ surgery since that season. And Webb’s case, it might only be because he hasn’t had a chance yet…

 

I knew many did, but yes.

 

No wonder none get to 230 anymore. Hardly any get to 200.

[a700hitter]

Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. Everyone in the division is getting better except for Breslow’s crew.

[Old Red]

Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. Everyone in the division is getting better except for Breslow’s crew.

 

Great pickup for the O’s, and even if it’s just for the here, and now. New owners might do some spending, and not hold the team back like the old owner did.

[dgalehouse]

Over the last two seasons:

 

Blake Snell 22-19

Jordan Montgomery 19-17

Aaron Nola 23-22

Shohei Ohtani 25-14

Sonny Gray 16-13

 

Apparently every team in MLB made some crazy choice by avoiding Wacha to focus on these pitchers.

 

I assume you’ll be putting heavy money on the Royals in 2024, with their staff anchored by Wacha (25-6) and Kyle Wright (22-8), both clearly better than all the pitchers above…

 

You shouldn't assume anything. But it is something to think about. How much do you want to spend on a pitcher who doesn't win, if you can get one who does for less money ? You do the same thing with saves. Saying they are overrated, bad stat, etc. But a save actually represents a close game that goes into the win column. And that is the whole object of the game.

[dgalehouse]

We should have brought ERod back.

 

In his starts the team went...

 

19-4 in '18

26-8 in '19

(0-0 in the COVID season)

19-12 in '21

 

Of course, wins are team numbers, and he went 20-23 w DET in '22-'23.

 

 

 

You used to use those same numbers to argue in favor of retaining E-Rod. Looks like you have flip-flopped.

[notin]

You shouldn't assume anything. But it is something to think about. How much do you want to spend on a pitcher who doesn't win, if you can get one who does for less money ? You do the same thing with saves. Saying they are overrated, bad stat, etc. But a save actually represents a close game that goes into the win column. And that is the whole object of the game.

 

 

Using wins to evaluate pitchers is like using runs scored to evaluate hitters. I mean, the object is to score runs, right?

 

And saves are massively overrated. Possibly the second most overrated stat in all of sports, behind only Blown Saves. (Also that’s not always what a save represents.)

Edited February 2, 2024 by notin

[notin]

You shouldn't assume anything. But it is something to think about. How much do you want to spend on a pitcher who doesn't win, if you can get one who does for less money ? You do the same thing with saves. Saying they are overrated, bad stat, etc. But a save actually represents a close game that goes into the win column. And that is the whole object of the game.

 

Someone feel free to verify my math.

 

I would argue getting 3 outs without giving up 3 runs doesn’t qualify as a close game. But in the 91 saves awarded in Red Sox games last year (to both Sox and opponent), 9 of them - roughly 10% - were in games decided by 5 or more…

[dgalehouse]

Using wins to evaluate pitchers is like using runs scored to evaluate hitters. I mean, the object is to score runs, right?

 

And saves are massively overrated. Possibly the second most overrated stat in all of sports, behind only Blown Saves. (Also that’s not always what a save represents.)

 

Well, the team with the most wins in the division is in first place. I wonder if anyone has ever matched up the imaginary wins in fwar against the team's actual wins in the standings ? Might be interesting. Anyway, I do think that you are the type of fan who likes to look beyond the actual results and delve deeper into things. And that's okay. You are good at it .

[dgalehouse]

Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. Everyone in the division is getting better except for Breslow’s crew.

 

I see that Cal Ripken is the frontman for the new owners. I wonder if they had discussed making moves like this ?

[Old Red]

I see that Cal Ripken is the frontman for the new owners. I wonder if they had discussed making moves like this ?

 

Great trade for the O’s, and they didn’t even have to give up their best SS prospect to get a good pitcher. Looks like the O’s are getting an A for the trade while the Brewers are getting a C-B.

Edited February 2, 2024 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

You used to use those same numbers to argue in favor of retaining E-Rod. Looks like you have flip-flopped.

 

I was not for bringing back ERod at what he got from DET, so wrong, again.

 

He did help the team win, a lot.

 

He had some rough times, that first year with DET.

[Oscars]

Orioles just traded for an ace, Corbin Burnes

[Bellhorn04]

Comparing to other like pitchers, who signed around the same time is a valid point, but if someone thinks all 3 were overpaid, it doesn't matter all that much.

 

I brought up how Price did not earn his contract. You bring up how Scherzer did, and yes, luck is a big factor.

 

Looking at the signing, when it was made, and I felt Price had about as nice of a record you could ever hope for. No looming injury issues. He was projected to make a major impact on any team that signed him. I was surprised and shocked we signed him, after the Lester and no over 30 issues. I was glad we signed him, but I knew he'd become a drain on the budget, eventually. I did not expect him to give us just 350 innings years 2-4, but that is hindsight.

 

I felt the 7 years would be a problem, but that's what it took to get him, and I was okay with it, despite knowing it was too much for too long.

 

 

Some useless fun with numbers:

 

If the Red Sox hadn't traded Price, they would have ultimately paid him 186 million for 6 years, because he opted out of 2020 completely and thus was not paid a nickel for that year.

 

186/6 would make his contract only 12.7% more than Lester's 165/6.

[Bellhorn04]

Orioles just traded for an ace, Corbin Burnes

 

And the Orioles have new ownership.

 

The hits just keep coming!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, the team with the most wins in the division is in first place. I wonder if anyone has ever matched up the imaginary wins in fwar against the team's actual wins in the standings ? Might be interesting. Anyway, I do think that you are the type of fan who likes to look beyond the actual results and delve deeper into things. And that's okay. You are good at it .

 

According to Tom Werner, the Red Sox lead the division in imaginary wins. One of his front office wizards told him they could've won 10 more games with a normal defense last year.

 

Ten more wins and the Sox are sniffing the postseason... so the plan is finally clear. Why spend big trying to be dominant, when "just normal" can get you a wild card?

[Bellhorn04]

According to Tom Werner, the Red Sox lead the division in imaginary wins. One of his front office wizards told him they could've won 10 more games with a normal defense last year.

 

Ten more wins and the Sox are sniffing the postseason... so the plan is finally clear. Why spend big trying to be dominant, when "just normal" can get you a wild card?

 

Only thing is, the current version of the 2024 Sox looks to have an excellent chance of being even worse than the 2022-2023 teams. The plan might shift to "Fire sale and tank!" before our eyes.

[Hugh2]

I felt the Price signing was a major overpay, but a needed one, at the time.

 

We need one, now.

 

But was it? he just came off a season where he finished 2nd in Cy young voting two years in a row, top 6 for 5 of the last 6 years including a Cy Young, FWars of 4.8, 4.3, 4.0, 5.6, 6.7, 4.4

 

Very similiar numbers to Garrit Cole before he signed his 324 million dollar contract.

 

The market isn't set by us fans. We just have a tendency to think everything is too much.

 

If the Sox end up signing Montgomery and SNell, odds half the board will be upset (to varying degrees) and calling it a gross overpay.

[Bellhorn04]

But was it? he just came off a season where he finished 2nd in Cy young voting two years in a row, top 6 for 5 of the last 6 years including a Cy Young, FWars of 4.8, 4.3, 4.0, 5.6, 6.7, 4.4

 

Very similiar numbers to Garrit Cole before he signed his 324 million dollar contract.

 

The market isn't set by us fans. We just have a tendency to think everything is too much.

 

If the Sox end up signing Montgomery and SNell, odds half the board will be upset (to varying degrees) and calling it a gross overpay.

 

I think moon and I did this to death already. I think I sort of got him to concede it wasn't a major overpay at the time.

[Bellhorn04]

Someone feel free to verify my math.

 

I would argue getting 3 outs without giving up 3 runs doesn’t qualify as a close game. But in the 91 saves awarded in Red Sox games last year (to both Sox and opponent), 9 of them - roughly 10% - were in games decided by 5 or more…

 

I don't see how the 10%/5 runs thing does anything for your argument. You'd have to look at the details of why it was a save.

[Old Red]

And the Orioles have new ownership.

 

The hits just keep coming!

 

What a difference a new owner makes.Think a new one for the Red Sox would do the same?