Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Larry Cook]

I got 70 wins max!

[moonslav59]

I got 70 wins max!

 

I thought I was pessimistic.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

I got 70 wins max!

 

Probably about right. I’m thinking 75 max.

[moonslav59]

I can understand thinking 70 or 75, but not the max part.

[Larry Cook]

I thought I was pessimistic.

 

 

It may seem pessimistic, but I am trying to be realistic

 

I do think that yoshida has a huge second year leap!

 

And I think abreau could be a huge addition

 

But the dumpster fire of a rotation scares me a lot

[notin]

It may seem pessimistic, but I am trying to be realistic

 

I do think that yoshida has a huge second year leap!

 

And I think abreau could be a huge addition

 

But the dumpster fire of a rotation scares me a lot

 

The rotation isn’t a dumpster fire.

 

Bello has looked outstanding so far, and just needs to stretch out a few more IP. Crawford has been an extremely pleasant surprise and is reportedly adding a split-finger fastball for those pesky lefties. I still have faith in Pivetta, especially if he can build on last year. Giolito is certainly a bounce back candidate.

 

That leaves Houck. Houck belongs in the pen, where he can be weaponized. Even if the Sox avoid Montgomery and Snell, at the very least bring in Clevinger or Lauer or Lorenzen. Or someone via trade…

[moonslav59]

It may seem pessimistic, but I am trying to be realistic

 

I do think that yoshida has a huge second year leap!

 

And I think abreau could be a huge addition

 

But the dumpster fire of a rotation scares me a lot

 

The rotation looks about the same as last year- same with the pen.

 

Defense is surely better.

 

Offense is up for debate, but I think our O will improve at SS, 2B, 1B, 3B and maybe C and LF. RF might be about the same. DH might be worse. CF offense should be significantly worse.

 

75 wins is an okay guess, but why say 75 max. We won 78, last year. How many ALE teams got better? 1 maybe 2?

[moonslav59]

The rotation isn’t a dumpster fire.

 

Bello has looked outstanding so far, and just needs to stretch out a few more IP. Crawford has been an extremely pleasant surprise and is reportedly adding a split-finger fastball for those pesky lefties. I still have faith in Pivetta, especially if he can build on last year. Giolito is certainly a bounce back candidate.

 

That leaves Houck. Houck belongs in the pen, where he can be weaponized. Even if the Sox avoid Montgomery and Snell, at the very least bring in Clevinger or Lauer or Lorenzen. Or someone via trade…

 

I'm starting to see a glimmer of hope, but adding a decent SP would be a big step, even if just Clevinger.

 

Adding Houck to the pen would be a big boost.

 

Rotation- about the same.

 

Pen- about the same.

 

Defense- significantly better.

 

Offense- should be better.

[cp176]

I'm starting to see a glimmer of hope, but adding a decent SP would be a big step, even if just Clevinger.

 

Adding Houck to the pen would be a big boost.

 

Rotation- about the same.

 

Pen- about the same.

 

Defense- significantly better.

 

Offense- should be better.

 

i get the attempt to be at least a little optimistic, but I'm not buying that the defense looks significantly better at the outset. The only upgrade for certain will be at short if he can stay on the field.

[notin]

i get the attempt to be at least a little optimistic, but I'm not buying that the defense looks significantly better at the outset. The only upgrade for certain will be at short if he can stay on the field.

 

2b could be better. The Sox didn’t even have a regular 2b last year.

 

If they don’t get another OF and go with Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF, those are both upgrades over Yoshida in LF and Duran in CF.

 

We’ll see if O’Neill (and his two Gold Gloves) is better than Verdugo in RF.

 

There’s a chance the Sox have upgraded the defense everywhere except catcher, 1b and 3b…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm starting to see a glimmer of hope, but adding a decent SP would be a big step, even if just Clevinger.

 

Adding Houck to the pen would be a big boost.

 

Rotation- about the same.

 

Pen- about the same.

 

Defense- significantly better.

 

Offense- should be better.

 

I agree about the defense, mostly because it can't get much worse at the big league level before many of those involved lose their jobs.

 

I want to agree about the bullpen, but doubt that Martin can have another historically near-perfect season. Houck and/or Whitlock and/or a few new guys have the potential to contribute to a unit that is always year-to-year on nearly every team.

 

I can't agree on the starting rotation -- and not because we'll miss Sale trying to recapture his 20s, or Paxton throwing for one month like the best pitcher in baseball. But it is mind-boggling that one of the worst rotations in baseball lost two of its starters this winter -- and only replaced them with one new guy who allowed nearly 5 earned runs per game the past two seasons.

[mvp 78]

It's hard to place a number of value of a player almost all of the speculation nature.

 

Schreiber was a damn good pitcher in '22. He was injured and was much worse in 2023, but one could argue he has proven what his "upside" is.

 

I'm not sure what to think of this trade, just yet. I liked Schreiber. He was not costly, either.

 

I guess we have to build the farm pitching up, so that is the upside of this deal. The draft is a ways away, and the results of our next drafts will not be realized for years. This is one way to try and jump start the process.

 

Brez traded a couple pitching prospects for O'Neill, and lost some to Rule 5, but I'm guessing they were not "his types."

 

He's added a lot of you pitchers and prospects:

 

Fitts

Slaten

Sandin

Campbell

Criswell

Weissert

Oliveras

Benitez

Judice

 

 

Robertson and Santos weren't really great prospects TBH. I don't think they lost much value there.

 

I think Crag trying to acquire guys that can potentially start is important since it's an area that Bloom ignored for 4 years. Fitts and Sandlin may never work out, but they desperately need to address the lack of legitimate starting rotation guys they have. If that means trading their 5th best reliever to do so, fine.

[mvp 78]

Or Winckowski, whom soxprospects has in Worcester.

 

The Sox are hopefully not stops about making Winckowski a starter. The bullpen had the potential to be one of the highlights of this team; why is Breslow trying to dismantle it?

 

I'd swap Murphy and Winckowski. Push Winck to the pen.

[mvp 78]

One thing the Schreiber trade does do is open up a spot on the 40 man, since Sandlin (drafted in 2022) doesn’t need one yet.

 

Another move coming? In the next 7-10 days?

 

Something underwhelming like Duvall?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Robertson and Santos weren't really great prospects TBH. I don't think they lost much value there.

 

I think Crag trying to acquire guys that can potentially start is important since it's an area that Bloom ignored for 4 years. Fitts and Sandlin may never work out, but they desperately need to address the lack of legitimate starting rotation guys they have. If that means trading their 5th best reliever to do so, fine.

 

At this point, I'd consider trading any reliever for starting pitching prospects. Like others here have said, it doesn't matter if you have a good bullpen, if your starters can't hold any leads.

[mvp 78]

What did they see in Sandin that made them think this was a good trade ???? He reminds me of the college arm that looks good in A ball and flames out in double aa ball. If double aa hitters lay off the splitter (or cutter) he will walk more batters than winkleman

 

Wikelman had a high BB/9 going back to A ball. Unless you've actually seen the guy pitch, I'm not sure how you can provide a scouting report like this. A starter that has velo in the mid 90's with a slider/curve/changeup mix can get to AAA if the 4 pitches are average.

 

This is what BA said about him:

 

While he has a four-pitch mix, Sandlin relies most heavily on the mid-90s fastball that touches 97 mph and has above-average ride. Sandlin’s preferred secondary is a mid-80s slider with horizontal break and high spin rates. He also throws a low-80s curveball with two-plane break and bite, and he mixes in a changeup that breaks like a splitter as well. He’s still refining his arsenal--especially his secondaries--so there’s a chance they continue to improve. The fastball and slider are above-average offerings right now, and some believe he may profile best in the bullpen, where he can dominate with those pitches alone.

 

He may end up being a bullpen guy, but saying hitters should lay off his splitter or cutter when he doesn't throw one is wild.

[mvp 78]

Again the trade was to make openings for both Mata and the rule 5 guy.

 

Brez obviously valued those two over Schreiber

 

 

Samdlin is just a bonus.

 

I would still be surprised if Mata makes the Opening Day roster. I don't think he has an MLB arm. This is really like carrying two Rule 5 guys.

[mvp 78]

Does Campbell have better control than mata?

 

Yes.

[mvp 78]

On paper this is a good deal Boston - trading Schreiber for a minor league prospect with some actual pathway to being a (back end but still) starter.

 

Law's writeup (#7 in the Royals system)

 

 

 

He is definitely a candidate to move quick, quicker still if it is the pen.

 

I don't think they make the trade if they believe he's a bullpen arm. They are keeping him as a starter for the next few years.

[mvp 78]

Will we move Duran to San Diego for a similar high A starter with mid rotation starter stuff???

 

Duran's trade value is much higher than Schreiber's. If he's traded for a prospect, it's for a top 5 prospect. A guy who projects as much closer to a ceiling of a TOTR starter, but is either further away or has injury concerns.

[mvp 78]

I think the consensus of all the pre-season projection systems is about 80 wins for us. And it's a perfectly reasonable number. With an error range of about 10% on either side, I assume.

 

Sounds about right to me. 72 wins if it falls apart. 88 wins is the ceiling if everything breaks right.

[mvp 78]

The rotation isn’t a dumpster fire.

 

Bello has looked outstanding so far, and just needs to stretch out a few more IP. Crawford has been an extremely pleasant surprise and is reportedly adding a split-finger fastball for those pesky lefties. I still have faith in Pivetta, especially if he can build on last year. Giolito is certainly a bounce back candidate.

 

That leaves Houck. Houck belongs in the pen, where he can be weaponized. Even if the Sox avoid Montgomery and Snell, at the very least bring in Clevinger or Lauer or Lorenzen. Or someone via trade…

 

I could see Bello taking a jump this year. It's likely he doesn't, but I could see a situation where he figures it out. Same thing with Giolito since we've seen it before with him. Pivetta has pitched well since he started throwing his sweeper. Houck is whatever. Crawford is decent enough. If they stay healthy, that could be a near playoff team depending on how well the defense performs behind them. Adding one more pitcher would make a substantial difference for sure.

[Bellhorn04]

Red Sox sign Liam Hendriks 2 years/$10 million. He'll be back this year some time after ASB.

[notin]

Red Sox sign Liam Hendriks 2 years/$10 million. He'll be back this year some time after ASB.

 

So now go get Brandon Woodruff?

[Hugh2]

I would still be surprised if Mata makes the Opening Day roster. I don't think he has an MLB arm. This is really like carrying two Rule 5 guys.

 

Does he not have a MLB arm? or does he not have the control or ability to stay healthy to stay on a MLB roster. He seems like the kind of guy who can be moved to the pen and just take off. But the Sox should have done that last year.

[mvp 78]

So now go get Brandon Woodruff?

 

Let's go!!!!!

[mvp 78]

Red Sox sign Liam Hendriks 2 years/$10 million. He'll be back this year some time after ASB.

 

I dig it.

[notin]

Red Sox sign Liam Hendriks 2 years/$10 million. He'll be back this year some time after ASB.

 

Of course they just dealt away a healthy and cheaper Schreiber yesterday…

[mvp 78]

Does he not have a MLB arm? or does he not have the control or ability to stay healthy to stay on a MLB roster. He seems like the kind of guy who can be moved to the pen and just take off. But the Sox should have done that last year.

 

Hard to have a bullpen arm when your control is all over the place. He had a 10 bb/9 last year. Not good! He's very inconsistent from game to game and batter to batter. Can't hold his delivery at all.

 

He's Ryan Fernandez with double the bb rate. Ceiling of a middle reliever. I'd just DFA him and not worry about it.

[mvp 78]

Of course they just dealt away a healthy and cheaper Schreiber yesterday…

 

Oh no! Not John Schreiber! How could they do that! He was so awesome for that one season when they should have traded him then!