A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[a700hitter]

Diekman owns a 7.94 ERA (10 earned runs in 11 ⅓ innings) over 13 appearances for Chicago this season. Last March, the veteran lefty signed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Red Sox that included a team option for 2024 but only lasted four months in Boston before the club traded him to the White Sox for catcher Reese McGuire at the trade deadline. That move has paid off for the Red Sox, as McGuire has become one of the club’s primary catchers while hitting a .333 with an .839 OPS in 54 games with the club. Diekman had a 7.04 ERA in 39 games with Chicago.

 

Looks like Bloom dodged a bullet. Diekman cut by the White Sox.

And what about Strahm?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Connor Wong leads the majors in dWAR... for all positions.

 

Last catcher to lead MLB in dWAR was Jody Davis in 1986.

 

Last Red Sox player to lead MLB in dWAR was John Valentin in 1995. He also led in '93.

[jad]

Why aren't fans packing the stadiums to see the 2023 dWAR race? They obviously know nothing about baseball.

I've always liked Wong for some reason. Maybe because his pitchers have less chance of being busted for having sticky stuff on their hands.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why aren't fans packing the stadiums to see the 2023 dWAR race? They obviously know nothing about baseball.

I've always liked Wong for some reason. Maybe because his pitchers have less chance of being busted for having sticky stuff on their hands.

 

Bloom deserves credit for acquiring Wong in trade for the highest-paid pitcher of all time.

 

Youk would say it was synonymous beyond belief: "Incredible, just unbelievable... but not implausible."

 

OB is gonna agree by using the future tense to describe something that just happened. "That's gonna be ball four, and the Red Sox are gonna have a baserunner," he's gonna say, after the batter already walked to first base.

[notin]

And what about Strahm?

 

He wasn’t traded away like the others…

[Hugh2]

He wasn’t traded away like the others…

 

But Strahm will become good starting pitcher and should be resigned.

 

Is what no one on this board said during the off-season.

[Bellhorn04]

But Strahm will become good starting pitcher and should be resigned.

 

Is what no one on this board said during the off-season.

 

Nobody said that, but I don't think there would have been complaining about it either.

 

Strahm has pitched well, but the Phillies pitching overall has been dreadful.

[Hugh2]

Nobody said that, but I don't think there would have been complaining about it either.

 

Strahm has pitched well, but the Phillies pitching overall has been dreadful.

 

I know. That was sarcasm.

 

In my opinion, I don't think that is accurate at all. I think in hindsight it's easy to say that.

 

Strahm last started in 2019 and had an ERA north of 5.00 This team needed serious pitching help and people were looking for "upside" People criticized almost every move made this offseason because it seemingly wasn't "big enough" or at least a lot of people did. I think it's very reasonable to point out that many would have criticized that move. Signing a career relief pitcher who looked horrible as a starter would not have flown over well on this board.

[Bellhorn04]

I know. That was sarcasm.

 

In my opinion, I don't think that is accurate at all. I think in hindsight it's easy to say that.

 

Strahm last started in 2019 and had an ERA north of 5.00 This team needed serious pitching help and people were looking for "upside" People criticized almost every move made this offseason because it seemingly wasn't "big enough" or at least a lot of people did. I think it's very reasonable to point out that many would have criticized that move. Signing a career relief pitcher who looked horrible as a starter would not have flown over well on this board.

 

It's all speculation one way or the other. That is what we do here, of course.

[S5Dewey]

It would appear that we have another "clutch" hitter in the making. If you don't believe it, ask him. If you live for these moments, and you come through, could it be that clutch is for real. lol what have I done?

 

I've said it before and I'll say it now. People who think clutch doesn't exist aren't clutch themselves.

[moonslav59]

I've said it before and I'll say it now. People who think clutch doesn't exist aren't clutch themselves.

 

Everyone believes in clutch- just that it is not a sustainable skill.

 

BTW, I scored more than half my winning team's points in our championship basketball game back in '77.

[Bellhorn04]

Everyone believes in clutch- just that it is not a sustainable skill.

 

If it's not sustainable then it's not an attribute.

[Hugh2]

It's all speculation one way or the other. That is what we do here, of course.

 

Is it?

 

Yoshida criticized by many here

Duval criticized by many here

Turner criticized by many here

 

Mondesi, Chung, Kluber, Jansen, Martin, Joely, and Mills.

 

To varying extents, all of these moves were harshly criticized by many in here. Why on gods green earth would we think Strahm would be any different.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it?

 

Yoshida criticized by many here

Duval criticized by many here

Turner criticized by many here

 

Mondesi, Chung, Kluber, Jansen, Martin, Joely, and Mills.

 

To varying extents, all of these moves were harshly criticized by many in here. Why on gods green earth would we think Strahm would be any different.

 

Some folks complain about just about everything, of course.

[Hugh2]

I've said it before and I'll say it now. People who think clutch doesn't exist aren't clutch themselves.

 

It's not that some people don't believe in "clutch" it' just that some think there's a "reverse clutch" at play.

 

Lets say for example said hitter has a lifetime OPS of .800 and he becomes an .800 OPS guy in the playoffs. Ok status quo, lets say for arguments sake that 25% of the population do not have the mental acuity to control their emotions and often let their anxieties get to them. I think this is reasonable, we've all seen a guy lose the strike zone, or a slumping hitter look lost at the plate. Baseball IS a mental game.

 

What happens to said players' .800 OPS when 25% of the people he's facing in these clutch situations fold? his .800 OPS goes up to .950.

 

Did it go up because he got better? or because the other guy folded?

 

It seems much more plausible to me that "reverse clutch" is a thing, and clutch players are good players who have a high-level ability to control their emotions in those situations. I think that is a REAL skill and perhaps this is just semantics and we can attribute that to a "clutch" factor. But I don' think anyone is getting better. No one is increasing their cognitive ability to pick up a spin rate faster or magically becoming stronger driving the ball further.

 

Maybe in a sense "reverse clutch" and "clutch" are the same thing. If you can continue to be the person you are under circumstances where many other people would fold that's a real skill.

 

It's a debate I've always been fascinated with, but I'm a firm believer that there is a major "reverse clutch" component of clutch hitting.

[Hugh2]

Some folks complain about just about everything, of course.

 

yup. Like me, I will always complain about people complaining.

[Hugh2]

yup. Like me, I will always complain about people complaining.

 

Kind of makes me feel a little hypocritical haha.

[notin]

Some folks complain about just about everything, of course.

 

For some folks, that’s what forums are for. And if it keeps you from drinking heavily or snorting Robitussin or juggling live hamsters, or what never your vice of choice is, I can understand that…

[Bellhorn04]

yup. Like me, I will always complain about people complaining.

 

I complain about people who complain about complaining.

[Hugh2]

I complain about people who complain about complaining.

 

HOW DARE YOU!!!!! lol

[notin]

I complain about people who complain about complaining.

 

So… me?

 

Because it’s especially sad when I do that because I’m many cases I know why they do…

[moonslav59]

If it's not sustainable then it's not an attribute.

 

No, it's not, but there is such a thing as a clutch hit.

[moonslav59]

It's not that some people don't believe in "clutch" it' just that some think there's a "reverse clutch" at play.

 

Lets say for example said hitter has a lifetime OPS of .800 and he becomes an .800 OPS guy in the playoffs. Ok status quo, lets say for arguments sake that 25% of the population do not have the mental acuity to control their emotions and often let their anxieties get to them. I think this is reasonable, we've all seen a guy lose the strike zone, or a slumping hitter look lost at the plate. Baseball IS a mental game.

 

What happens to said players' .800 OPS when 25% of the people he's facing in these clutch situations fold? his .800 OPS goes up to .950.

 

Did it go up because he got better? or because the other guy folded?

 

It seems much more plausible to me that "reverse clutch" is a thing, and clutch players are good players who have a high-level ability to control their emotions in those situations. I think that is a REAL skill and perhaps this is just semantics and we can attribute that to a "clutch" factor. But I don' think anyone is getting better. No one is increasing their cognitive ability to pick up a spin rate faster or magically becoming stronger driving the ball further.

 

Maybe in a sense "reverse clutch" and "clutch" are the same thing. If you can continue to be the person you are under circumstances where many other people would fold that's a real skill.

 

It's a debate I've always been fascinated with, but I'm a firm believer that there is a major "reverse clutch" component of clutch hitting.

 

One could argue, batters in the playoffs are likely to be facing better pitchers, so staying even with their OPS is actually a plus.

 

(Not me. I don't think it is a repeatable skill.)

 

Perhaps the guy we think of as Mr. Clutch would be Papi.

 

.931 career OPS

.956 w BOS

.947 playoffs

 

Career

.870 Late & Close

.943 High Leverage

[Bellhorn04]

No, it's not, but there is such a thing as a clutch hit.

 

That's just a hit in a crucial situation. The word "clutch" adds nothing.

 

(Just trying to start a pointless semantic debate here.)

[Bellhorn04]

One could argue, batters in the playoffs are likely to be facing better pitchers, so staying even with their OPS is actually a plus.

 

(Not me. I don't think it is a repeatable skill.)

 

Perhaps the guy we think of as Mr. Clutch would be Papi.

 

.931 career OPS

.956 w BOS

.947 playoffs

 

Career

.870 Late & Close

.943 High Leverage

 

Schilling is the best argument for clutch IMHO.

[Hugh2]

One could argue, batters in the playoffs are likely to be facing better pitchers, so staying even with their OPS is actually a plus.

 

(Not me. I don't think it is a repeatable skill.)

 

Perhaps the guy we think of as Mr. Clutch would be Papi.

 

.931 career OPS

.956 w BOS

.947 playoffs

 

Career

.870 Late & Close

.943 High Leverage

 

Also wouldn't an .800 OPS late and close be better than a .800 OPS overall?

 

Because "Late and close" often means you're facing elite relievers.

[notin]

That's just a hit in a crucial situation. The word "clutch" adds nothing.

 

(Just trying to start a pointless semantic debate here.)

 

I think “clutch” means succeeding in a crucial situation. The debate was never about that happening vs not happening, but whether or not it was a skill. To me, there was always a strong overlap between players who repeatedly succeeded in crucial situations and players who repeatedly succeeded overall…

[Hugh2]

I think “clutch” means succeeding in a crucial situation. The debate was never about that happening vs not happening, but whether or not it was a skill. To me, there was always a strong overlap between players who repeatedly succeeded in crucial situations and players who repeatedly succeeded overall…

 

To me clutch is real, and it's a skill. But the skill is "maintaining composure" while others fold. This isn't like some kind of anime where they can swallow a pill and magically become much better.

[mvp 78]

Connor Wong leads the majors in dWAR... for all positions.

 

Last catcher to lead MLB in dWAR was Jody Davis in 1986.

 

Last Red Sox player to lead MLB in dWAR was John Valentin in 1995. He also led in '93.

 

How is dWAR calculated for catchers? His framing isn't great (0 Framing Runs). He had that passed ball last night (0 Blocks Above Average). Aside from pop time and caught stealing %, what makes him a great catcher?

[mvp 78]

I've said it before and I'll say it now. People who think clutch doesn't exist aren't clutch themselves.

 

AKA People that need help from a little blue pill.