A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

No.

 

But the Sox weren’t out of range to begin with and did improve.

 

I think they are more likely to insist fifth than first, but I also think the most likely outcome is neither place…

 

The most likely outcome according to all projections is 4th or 5th.

 

B-R presently has as with a 2.3% chance to make the postseason - about a 1 in 40 chance.

 

We have to beat the projections.

[mvp 78]

My first impression of Duran call up and his sub .200 average was an ugh. But then I saw his OBP was reasonable helped by 10 walks.

 

Is it time to get rid of BA? We focus on OPS and that's a cobination of OBP and SLUG%.

 

Anyone know what the average OBP is?

 

Dalbec just doesn't fit the need right now. They need up the middle guys. Duran can maybe play CF? They'll at least try it one more time. Dalbec can't play SS. It was foolish to even use it as a fallback. Duran at least has the profile of a CFer and coaches have been working with him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The most likely outcome according to all projections is 4th or 5th.

 

B-R presently has as with a 2.3% chance to make the postseason - about a 1 in 40 chance.

 

We have to beat the projections.

 

We might be better when injuries get better, but we'd always be better acquiring better players, instead of recruiting and waiting for damaged goods to get better.

[mvp 78]

Duran: 353 OBP, 19.6% BB rate, 214 BABIP

 

Maybe if he doesn't go to team Mexico and sit on the bench, he doesn't start in AAA?

 

This pushes Kiké back to IF. They must really not like the Arroyo/Chang duo.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Duran: 353 OBP, 19.6% BB rate, 214 BABIP

 

Maybe if he doesn't go to team Mexico and sit on the bench, he doesn't start in AAA?

 

This pushes Kiké back to IF. They must really not like the Arroyo/Chang duo.

 

Splits show the logic. Arroyo and Kike are batting hundreds of points better vs. righties than Chang.

 

Yu .071... Kike .182... Arroyo .208. Let's GO!

[moonslav59]

While I do think Duran deserves another chance to show he make it in the bigs, I do not have much optimism he can stick.

 

I like seeing Kike in CF, rather than SS, but Chang is such a drag on the O, it's hard to continue with him as our FT SS for another 6+ weeks.

 

It sucks losing Martin, and I hope his shoulder inflammation is not going to be an ongoing issue, but it is worrisome.

 

One step up and two steps back.

[mvp 78]

Splits show the logic. Arroyo and Kike are batting hundreds of points better vs. righties than Chang.

 

Yu .071... Kike .182... Arroyo .208. Let's GO!

 

Chang's 36% k rate is a big problem for him.

 

The hope is that Duran is turning a corner. No harm in finding out.

[moonslav59]

Chang's 36% k rate is a big problem for him.

 

The hope is that Duran is turning a corner. No harm in finding out.

 

Kinda knew he'd get at least one more look in the bigs.

 

I hope, this time, he impresses.

[mvp 78]

While I do think Duran deserves another chance to show he make it in the bigs, I do not have much optimism he can stick.

 

I like seeing Kike in CF, rather than SS, but Chang is such a drag on the O, it's hard to continue with him as our FT SS for another 6+ weeks.

 

It sucks losing Martin, and I hope his shoulder inflammation is not going to be an ongoing issue, but it is worrisome.

 

One step up and two steps back.

 

More gloom and doom from moon. The Garfield of TalkSox. Typical Monday.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Chang's 36% k rate is a big problem for him.

 

The hope is that Duran is turning a corner. No harm in finding out.

 

We need Duran on base, not swinging for the fences, so he can run wild like he's an Oriole playing against the Red Sox.

[a700hitter]

We need Duran on base, not swinging for the fences, so he can run wild like he's an Oriole playing against the Red Sox.

The new rules should make it very difficult to throw him out.

[mvp 78]

We need Duran on base, not swinging for the fences, so he can run wild like he's an Oriole playing against the Red Sox.

 

He's not good at actually stealing bases though. That's more of David Hamilton whose early numbers are smoke and mirrors.

[notin]

The new rules should make it very difficult to throw him out.

 

If he continues to strike out over 30% of the time, this is a non-issue..

[mvp 78]

If he continues to strike out over 30% of the time, this is a non-issue..

 

If he's BB'ing 20% of the other time.

[moonslav59]

More gloom and doom from moon. The Garfield of TalkSox. Typical Monday.

 

Yes, I'm Mr. Gloom & Doom. You sure pay attention.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, I'm Mr. Gloom & Doom. You sure pay attention.

 

I'm worried again about Bloom's defense. On this board. Hopefully the Sox can hang in there until all posters regain their faculties...

 

... or at least have enough mental health to skip a faculty meeting.

[Nick]

I just wished the organization would develop an 'identity'.

 

As a long time fan since 1967 (age 12), I've always felt playing in AL East required teams to hit in order to be successful. More power the better.

 

I can separate offense and defense (pitching). Our pen is good, our starting pitching will get better.

 

But what is Bloom's vision as far as positional players and their ability to play defense?

 

I'm just little confused.

 

As an example, put a defensive first shortstop over offense? If he can hit, that's cherry on top. Despite his efforts, Kike is probably not the answer at ss.

 

What about corner infield and outfielders? Emphasis on power over average? I guess we did get the hint when Renfroe was traded for JBJ. But JBJ hit so poorly that experiment lasted one season.

 

Casas is our 1B until he's not.

 

Arroyo to me is not our full time 2B.

 

Will Story eventually move to short or will he stay at 2B?

 

Duval is a stop gap fix in CF, not a long term solution.

 

Will Verdugo get extended and become part of our next core group?

 

Inquiring minds want to know.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

I just wished the organization would develop an 'identity'.

 

As a long time fan since 1967 (age 12), I've always felt playing in AL East required teams to hit in order to be successful. More power the better.

 

I can separate offense and defense (pitching). Our pen is good, our starting pitching will get better.

 

But what is Bloom's vision as far as positional players and their ability to play defense?

 

I'm just little confused.

 

As an example, put a defensive first shortstop over offense? If he can hit, that's cherry on top. Despite his efforts, Kike is probably not the answer at ss.

 

What about corner infield and outfielders? Emphasis on power over average?

 

Inquiring minds want to know.

 

The Sox organizational philosophy looked pretty darn sound when Epstein was here. After that things started to get wobbly.

 

It may be a case of having an owner who wants to dictate the strategy. And right now a key part of the strategy is obviously keeping the payroll under control.

 

And Bloom thinks he has creative solutions to the deficiencies the reduced spending creates.

[mvp 78]

The Sox organizational philosophy looked pretty darn sound when Epstein was here. After that things started to get wobbly.

 

It may be a case of having an owner who wants to dictate the strategy. And right now a key part of the strategy is obviously keeping the payroll under control.

 

And Bloom thinks he has creative solutions to the deficiencies the reduced spending creates.

 

He just likes the smell of used cars.

[notin]

If he's BB'ing 20% of the other time.

 

It’s nice that he’s been doing that down in Worcester, but against MLB pitching his career is 8%.

 

I’d be more interested in Duran if he at least could defend CF. Has shown any improvement in that area this year?

[jad]

I'm worried again about Bloom's defense. On this board. Hopefully the Sox can hang in there until all posters regain their faculties...

 

... or at least have enough mental health to skip a faculty meeting.

 

Please do not use language like that! I'm retired and any reference to 'fac*lty m**ting' can be triggering.

[moonslav59]

The Sox organizational philosophy looked pretty darn sound when Epstein was here. After that things started to get wobbly.

 

It may be a case of having an owner who wants to dictate the strategy. And right now a key part of the strategy is obviously keeping the payroll under control.

 

And Bloom thinks he has creative solutions to the deficiencies the reduced spending creates.

 

There was a lot of changeover in players under Theo, too. Winning helps people get over those sorts of things.

 

I remember posters complaining about losing so many players from the 2004 team, and that was after several posters complaining about trading Nomar during the 2004 season.

 

The 2013 team bore just about zero resemblance to the 2007 team and even the 2011 and 2012 teams, but that was fun as hell to watch, right?

 

If we start winning again, it will mean players are doing well, and will be liked by fans.

 

We have a lot of players under team control for 3-4 or more years. Once they prove themselves, I think those craving stability will be okay.

 

It has been a whirlwind, for sure.

[mvp 78]

It’s nice that he’s been doing that down in Worcester, but against MLB pitching his career is 8%.

 

I’d be more interested in Duran if he at least could defend CF. Has shown any improvement in that area this year?

 

There hasn't been much in game performance to judge. The coaching staff say he's making strides in practice and in the offseason.

 

It's a big unknown. I don't think he'll ever be an average defender. Maybe he can be coached up to slightly below average?

[moonslav59]

There hasn't been much in game performance to judge. The coaching staff say he's making strides in practice and in the offseason.

 

It's a big unknown. I don't think he'll ever be an average defender. Maybe he can be coached up to slightly below average?

 

Maybe someday he can use his speed to makeup for his shortcomings, but I think you are right: slightly below average might be his ceiling on D, and that might be a couple seasons away.

 

With Duran, his offense needs to carry him.

[Bellhorn04]

There was a lot of changeover in players under Theo, too. Winning helps people get over those sorts of things.

 

I remember posters complaining about losing so many players from the 2004 team, and that was after several posters complaining about trading Nomar during the 2004 season.

 

The 2013 team bore just about zero resemblance to the 2007 team and even the 2011 and 2012 teams, but that was fun as hell to watch, right?

 

If we start winning again, it will mean players are doing well, and will be liked by fans.

 

We have a lot of players under team control for 3-4 or more years. Once they prove themselves, I think those craving stability will be okay.

 

It has been a whirlwind, for sure.

 

There's an awful lot of uncertainty, because so much depends on Bloom, and if the team's record stinks again this year, we don't even know if Henry will stay with him.

[jacksonianmarch]

3 errors in a row. Wow

[moonslav59]

3 errors in a row. Wow

 

Somehow avoiding a run scored.

[jacksonianmarch]

Somehow avoiding a run scored.

 

The Angels are a bad team. You can survive mistakes against them.

 

Sox have faced Detroit, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Anaheim. You got a 4 game whooping with the Rays. But you got a soft start and are 8-8. After this game, the only "reprieve" you have prior to seeing the Angels again on May 22 is the Orioles next week. Sox mettle will be tested

[mvp 78]

The Angels are a bad team. You can survive mistakes against them.

 

Sox have faced Detroit, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Anaheim. You got a 4 game whooping with the Rays. But you got a soft start and are 8-8. After this game, the only "reprieve" you have prior to seeing the Angels again on May 22 is the Orioles next week. Sox mettle will be tested

 

Orioles are 9-7.

 

On the Sox schedule between now and May 22:

Twins 10-6 (must be good because they can beat the Yankees)

Guardians 9-7 (same record as lowly O's)

Mariners 8-8 (.500 team!)

Braves 12-4 (yes, good)

Phillies 6-10 (bad team!)

Brewers 11-5 (probably good)

Cardinals 7-9 (below .500!)

Pads 7-9 (below .500!)

 

That's 4 series against teams with .500 records or below, plus the Guardians that have the same record as those horrible, no good Orioles!

[Nick]

Orioles are 9-7.

 

On the Sox schedule between now and May 22:

Twins 10-6 (must be good because they can beat the Yankees)

Guardians 9-7 (same record as lowly O's)

Mariners 8-8 (.500 team!)

Braves 12-4 (yes, good)

Phillies 6-10 (bad team!)

Brewers 11-5 (probably good)

Cardinals 7-9 (below .500!)

Pads 7-9 (below .500!)

 

That's 4 series against teams with .500 records or below, plus the Guardians that have the same record as those horrible, no good Orioles!

 

We can be bad against bad teams so opposition record matters not.

 

I don't know how we ended up last year but we seem to play the Yankees pretty well.