A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

The race for the Sox OPS leader has been all over the map, over the last few weeks. It is still not decided, but Devers has taken over the lead, among players with 300+ PAs:

 

.865 Devrs

.859 Duvall (310 PAsin DNQ for MLB)

.856 Casas

.828 Duran (362 PAs)

.827 Turner

.793 Yoshida

.774 Verdugo

.715 Wong

 

Under 300 PAs

1.032 Rafaela (40 PAs)

.947 Abreu (55)

.740 Reyes (163)

.709 EValdez (127)

.708 Urias (90)

.704 McGuire (166)

.675 Refsnyder (228)

.535 Story (117)

 

OPS Against (175+ PAs Against)

.571 Martin

.693 Jansen

.696 Crawford

.07 Schreiber

.729 Pivetta

.734 Houck

.735 Winckowski

.737 Bernardino

.744 Sale

.765 Paxton

.773 Murphy

.835 Whitlock

 

 

[moonslav59]

So my call on Turner passing JD in OPS by season's end looks like yet another wrong call, by me.

 

While Turner did bring his OPS up by a lot, he kinds leveled off since September 1st. I had expected JD to drop off more as the season went on, but he missed a lot of time, so that never really happened.

 

As it stands, now...

 

.865 JD (370 PAs)

 

.831 Turner (510 PAs)

 

JD was at

.931 May 31

.881 June 30 (hit .793 in June)

.872 July 30 (hit .839)

.856 Aug 31 (played in 7 games at .604)

.865 Sep 15 (5 games at 1.014)

 

JT was at...

.755 May 31 (.792 in May)

.792 June 30 (.865 in June)

.837 July 31 (.986 in July)

.845 Aug 31 (.890 in Aug)

.827 Sep 15 (.647 in 12 games)

 

I still really liked watching JT play for us, and miss the great games JD gave us for so many years.

 

 

[Old Red]

Now that Bloom is gone are the Red Sox still underdogs, or heading for just under 500 again.

[moonslav59]

Turner has met all his PA targets and will earn the full $1M bonus.

[Nick]

I would trade Verdugo and see what we can get this winter before committing to extending him.

 

Our goal is to be in the playoffs annually starting in 2024. He should be replaced. I don't see much more upside from him to warrant a big contract.

[Nick]

Possible starting lineup?

 

CF Duran/Rafaela

3B Devers

DH Turner/Yoshida

1B Casas/Turner

RF Abreu/Rafaela

LF Yoshida/Refsnyder

SS Story/Reyes

CC Wong/McGuire

2B Rafaela (this was brought up by Cora, not me)/Reyes/Urias

 

OK, that's 14

Edited September 17, 2023 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Now that Bloom is gone are the Red Sox still underdogs, or heading for just under 500 again.��

 

Currently under the holes where the dogs buried their bones.

[Nick]

How much more can Turner get with another club? He's 38, ready to break down at any moment.

 

Nothing worse than being bad and collecting paycheck. I don't think that's Turner's MO.

 

He loves Boston. I think he'll opt in.

[oldtimer]

How much more can Turner get with another club? He's 38, ready to break down at any moment.

 

Nothing worse than being bad and collecting paycheck. I don't think that's Turner's MO.

 

He loves Boston. I think he'll opt in.

 

Turner has been a very effective player for Boston in 2023 and the experienced player and right hand bat we will need in 2024. I hope the Sox extend him, he's earned it.

[oldtimer]

Possible starting lineup?

 

CF Duran/Rafaela

3B Devers

DH Turner/Yoshida

1B Casas/Turner

RF Abreu/Rafaela

LF Yoshida/Refsnyder

SS Story/Reyes

CC Wong/McGuire

2B Rafaela (this was brought up by Cora, not me)/Reyes/Urias

 

OK, that's 14

 

I am wondering if Teel will make the squad instead of McGuire for the start of the season. Let him play winter ball to gain experience. Both Teel and McGuire bat from the left side.

[Nick]

I am wondering if Teel will make the squad instead of McGuire for the start of the season. Let him play winter ball to gain experience. Both Teel and McGuire bat from the left side.

 

Anything is possible but it's hard for me to imagine a player that was drafted in the summer of 2023 to make the team on April 2024.

 

I expect him to be a September call up at best.

[Nick]

Turner has been a very effective player for Boston in 2023 and the experienced player and right hand bat we will need in 2024. I hope the Sox extend him, he's earned it.

 

I don't see him effective in 2025. We'll have Yoshida to DH. So essentially you want to pay him $25M+ for one year of service?

[notin]

How much more can Turner get with another club? He's 38, ready to break down at any moment.

 

Nothing worse than being bad and collecting paycheck. I don't think that's Turner's MO.

 

He loves Boston. I think he'll opt in.

 

 

He’s opting out. You’re rationalizing.

 

And not very well…

[notin]

I am wondering if Teel will make the squad instead of McGuire for the start of the season. Let him play winter ball to gain experience. Both Teel and McGuire bat from the left side.

 

Teel was playing college ball 5 months ago. No reason to rush him…

[notin]

Anything is possible but it's hard for me to imagine a player that was drafted in the summer of 2023 to make the team on April 2024.

 

I expect him to be a September call up at best.

 

 

 

It’s very rare for position players. But Ryan Zimmerman was drafted in June of 2005 and made his MLB debut September 1, 2005.

 

But this is probably not the level of expectation we should be going for…

[moonslav59]

Possible starting lineup?

 

CF Duran/Rafaela

3B Devers

DH Turner/Yoshida

1B Casas/Turner

RF Abreu/Rafaela

LF Yoshida/Refsnyder

SS Story/Reyes

CC Wong/McGuire

2B Rafaela (this was brought up by Cora, not me)/Reyes/Urias

 

OK, that's 14

 

Scary D.

 

I'd keep Duran in LF.

I'd keep Rafaela in CF.

I'm not sold on Abreu's D, so replacing Dugo with Wilyer in RF may bite us in the ass.

 

I'd send Casas to 1B defense school over the winter.

 

As much as I love Turner, Yoshida looks like a FT DH.

His D sucks.

He seems to have run out of steam, so being a FT DH might solve that, if it is indeed an issue.

 

A healthy Story, alone, will greatly improve the D.

 

I like Reyes and Urias at 2B and would use Rafaela there, only if the both flop or get hurt, of the OF'ers all do so well, we have to find room for them all.

[moonslav59]

I am wondering if Teel will make the squad instead of McGuire for the start of the season. Let him play winter ball to gain experience. Both Teel and McGuire bat from the left side.

 

Not to start the season, IMO.

 

I'm thinking September, at the earlies.

[moonslav59]

How much more can Turner get with another club? He's 38, ready to break down at any moment.

 

Nothing worse than being bad and collecting paycheck. I don't think that's Turner's MO.

 

He loves Boston. I think he'll opt in.

 

He might make double the option.

 

The Sox might get him back at $10M for 2024 and an $8M team option for '25 win a $2M buy out- essentially $12M/1 or $18M/2.

 

He'd get more than that elsewhere. He's still a decent defender at 1B, and his ability to back up 3B makes him valuable to many teams.

 

I hope you are right, though. At that money, YES! (Imagine him taking the option and we trade him! Yikes!)

 

[moonslav59]

It’s very rare for position players. But Ryan Zimmerman was drafted in June of 2005 and made his MLB debut September 1, 2005.

 

But this is probably not the level of expectation we should be going for…

 

I'd say being a catcher usually takes longer than most positions.

 

They won't call him up to DH, although he might hit .800.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Teel was playing college ball 5 months ago. No reason to rush him…

 

Yeah, the old regime was conventionally conservative with prospects, who usually just aren't good enough to promote (before they can order a drink at a bar). But Teel's top collegiate experiences vaulted him to Double A quickly.

 

And who knows what a radical new CBO might want to do to immediately change the culture -- especially concerning the shoddy D, which is the most embarrassing (and potentially fatal) flaw on bad teams with fans clutching remotes.

 

Teel probably doesn't break camp and go north with the Sox, but if he continues to rake and keeps his pop time better than anyone in the majors, a call-up before mid-season shouldn't be a shocker.

[moonslav59]

It kind of shocked me to see Bobby Dee in the line-up.

 

Shopping for a trade?

[notin]

I'd say being a catcher usually takes longer than most positions.

 

They won't call him up to DH, although he might hit .800.

 

 

And Zimmerman isn’t the bat anyone needs to reach…

[Larry Cook]

Can we move story to second base and sign a really good defensive short stop???? Our infielder leaks more than a 60 year old prostitute

[moonslav59]

Can we move story to second base and sign a really good defensive short stop???? Our infielder leaks more than a 60 year old prostitute

 

Story is an excellent SS.

 

Why do we keep moving people off their best position and refuse to move some failures at one position to another?

 

Reyes and Urias should be enough at 2B, and their D is not bad.

 

Keep Rafaela in CF, and our D up the middle is night and day better than 2023's.

[Old Red]

Can we move story to second base and sign a really good defensive short stop???? Our infielder leaks more than a 60 year old prostitute

 

Story was signed to be the SS. Now if you want to get a better2B than Reyes, or Urias I’m all for it. After the rotation is fixed of course.

[moonslav59]

Story was signed to be the SS. Now if you want to get a better2B than Reyes, or Urias I’m all for it. After the rotation is fixed of course.

 

To me, Reyes and Urias are about average. I'd focus all our resources and SP and maybe a little on LH RP'er and RH'd bat for the OF.

 

2B is too low on my priority list.

[Larry Cook]

Story is an excellent SS.

 

Why do we keep moving people off their best position and refuse to move some failures at one position to another?

 

Reyes and Urias should be enough at 2B, and their D is not bad.

 

Keep Rafaela in CF, and our D up the middle is night and day better than 2023's.

 

Is story adequate enough defensively to stay at short stop? I tend to think he has lost a step or three and has a pop gun arm!

I think could be better defensively at 2nd base for us.

[moonslav59]

Is story adequate enough defensively to stay at short stop? I tend to think he has lost a step or three and has a pop gun arm!

I think could be better defensively at 2nd base for us.

 

He'd be a great defensive 2Bman, for sure, and was in 2022.

 

It's hard and costly to find great SSs who can play better D than Story.

 

He already has a 5+ DRS, which projects to about a league leading +20 over a season. His 10.5 UZR.150 is second to Gunnar Henderson, this year.

 

We have a few in our system that may win the job from him, eventually, so maybe just keeping Story at SS, until that day makes the most sense.

 

Mayer

Zanetello

Cespedes

Romero

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

Story was signed to be the SS. Now if you want to get a better2B than Reyes, or Urias I’m all for it. After the rotation is fixed of course.

 

 

… by a guy who is no longer with the organization. So it’s irrelevant.

[Old Red]

… by a guy who is no longer with the organization. So it’s irrelevant.

 

Who signed him is the irrelevant part.