A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

We already have enough DH's. Why move a pre-ARB Casas there?

[mvp 78]

Also, Devers has never even practiced at 1B. Why would you just throw him out there now and not give him an offseason to figure it out? It doesn't make any sense if you're ACTUALLY going to try him there for really.

[Bellhorn04]

Also, Devers has never even practiced at 1B. Why would you just throw him out there now and not give him an offseason to figure it out? It doesn't make any sense if you're ACTUALLY going to try him there for really.

 

No way in hell they're moving him to 1B right now.

[Old Red]

I think not wanting a backup 1b who can’t hit out field isn’t necessarily a bad thing. If you want to cite Franchy Cordero as a failed 1b, at least remember Dalbec couldn’t beat him out for the starting role…

 

Duran sucked big time that year too.

[Nick]

Problem facing Red Sox

A Pitching

1 Starting pitcher

2 Starting pitcher

3 Starting pitcher

4 Left handed reliever (that's what I am reading)

 

I see Bello as the only sure thing. Next up is Kutter Crawford, based mostly on his durability for most of 2023. The third spot can come from one of Pivetta, Sale and Houck.

 

Catching is not an issue

1B, maybe a right handed back up that can play multiple positions

2B, Reyes and Urias, they can also back up Story

SS, Story

3B, Devers (with a new 10 year deal, he's not moving to 1B anytime soon, get over it.)

OF, Duran, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Abreu, Verdugo

DH, Yoshida (let him play some outfield and rest some of the regulars at DH)

 

Add Duvall and Turner type, both right handed bats that can play all 3 outfield positions (duvall), DH, 1B (Turner)

 

Love to see an upgrade at 2B.

 

As long as our pitching staff gets organized, we can go do everything else. Soto in 2025?

[mvp 78]

Problem facing Red Sox

A Pitching

1 Starting pitcher

2 Starting pitcher

3 Starting pitcher

4 Left handed reliever (that's what I am reading)

 

I see Bello as the only sure thing. Next up is Kutter Crawford, based mostly on his durability for most of 2023. The third spot can come from one of Pivetta, Sale and Houck.

 

Catching is not an issue

1B, maybe a right handed back up that can play multiple positions

2B, Reyes and Urias, they can also back up Story

SS, Story

3B, Devers (with a new 10 year deal, he's not moving to 1B anytime soon, get over it.)

OF, Duran, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Abreu, Verdugo

DH, Yoshida (let him play some outfield and rest some of the regulars at DH)

 

Add Duvall and Turner type, both right handed bats that can play all 3 outfield positions (duvall), DH, 1B (Turner)

 

Love to see an upgrade at 2B.

 

As long as our pitching staff gets organized, we can go do everything else. Soto in 2025?

 

Well, they aren't getting 3 starters that's for sure.

[moonslav59]

Well, they aren't getting 3 starters that's for sure.

 

Two top ones is probably wishful thinking, but we need 2 near aces or 3 solid SP'er, or no GM is going to turn this around,

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We might have to be happy enough if the new regime just stops the practice of acquiring square pegs to fill too many holes on the diamond.

 

It wasn't ever clever -- not with three last place finishes in four years... more like cleaver, as in a Sopranos "clean-up" scene in the back room of Satriale's Pork Store Meat Market.

[dgalehouse]

Congrats to former Sox stalwarts Mookie, J.D. , Kike , Brasier and Joe " Fight Club " Kelly on clinching the N.L. West title.

[notin]

Well, they aren't getting 3 starters that's for sure.

 

Agreed. Two is the limit.

 

Also hopefully the new order believes that Houck and (especially) Whitlock as bullpen arms…

[moonslav59]

Agreed. Two is the limit.

 

Also hopefully the new order believes that Houck and (especially) Whitlock as bullpen arms…

 

If we get two really good SP'er, I'd be content.

 

If we set the budget at just below the second tax line, we'd have enough for 3 via free agency, and enough left over for a LH'd RP'er and maybe Duvall. (We won't, though.)

 

SP1 Acquisition

SP2 Acquisition

SP3 Bello

SP4 Crawford

SP5 Pivetta/Sale

(Gambrell, Wikelman, Perales, Drohan, Hagenman)

 

Closer Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Houck

RP4 Whitlock

RP5 (Pivetta or Sale)

RP6 Schreiber

RP7 Winckowski

RP8 LH RP Acquisition or Joely

(Bernardino, ZKelly, Mills, Murphy, Mata, Walter, Robertson, Guerrero)

 

C Wong, McGuire (Scott/Teel/Joh Garcia)

1B Casas (Dalbec/Jordan)

2B Urias, Reyes (Yorke, EValdez/Bonaci)

SS Story (DHam, Mayer, Zanetello, Romero, Cespedes)

3B Devers (Meidroth, Lugo, Paulino, CCoffey, Anderson)

LF: Duran, Refsnyder (Rosier)

CF: Duvall, Rafaela (Anthony, Bleis)

RF: Dugo, Abreu (Sikes, Castro)

DH: Yoshida (Hickey/Kavadas)

 

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. Two is the limit.

 

Also hopefully the new order believes that Houck and (especially) Whitlock as bullpen arms…

 

Amen to that.

[moonslav59]

Amen to that.

 

I get the sneaky feeling Houck ends up starting in 2024.

 

Whitlock will be in the pen.

 

Crawford and Pivetta are unknown and may depend on how many we sign and how many are healthy.

[notin]

I get the sneaky feeling Houck ends up starting in 2024.

 

Whitlock will be in the pen.

 

Crawford and Pivetta are unknown and may depend on how many we sign and how many are healthy.

 

Crawford took major steps forward this year. I’m optimistic. I pencil him in to the rotation.

 

Pivetta? Long man/emergency starter? He’s not a terrible pitcher. But that does seem like a wasteful role from a guy who probably gets $7-8 mill in arbitration…

[moonslav59]

Crawford took major steps forward this year. I’m optimistic. I pencil him in to the rotation.

 

Pivetta? Long man/emergency starter? He’s not a terrible pitcher. But that does seem like a wasteful role from a guy who probably gets $7-8 mill in arbitration…

 

As up and down as Pivetta has been, and there have been some pretty long ups and some very awful downs, hid final numbers haven't changed much with the Sox:

 

2021: 4.53 ERA (4.28 FIP)

2022: 4.56 ERA (4.42)

2023: 4.48 ERA (4.28)

 

His WHIP improved a lot, as did his K/BB ratio:

'21-'22: 1.345 WHIP and 2.54 K/BB

2023: 1.189 and 3.46

 

In 2021, he had a 9 start streak at 3.81 (3.13 FIP.)

In 2022, he had a 20 start streak at 3.62 (3.73 FIP)

In 2023, he went 2 months with a 1.51 ERA (2.42 FIP) in 15 games and 36 IP

 

[Larry Cook]

Problem facing Red Sox

A Pitching

1 Starting pitcher

2 Starting pitcher

3 Starting pitcher

4 Left handed reliever (that's what I am reading)

 

I see Bello as the only sure thing. Next up is Kutter Crawford, based mostly on his durability for most of 2023. The third spot can come from one of Pivetta, Sale and Houck.

 

Catching is not an issue

1B, maybe a right handed back up that can play multiple positions

2B, Reyes and Urias, they can also back up Story

SS, Story

3B, Devers (with a new 10 year deal, he's not moving to 1B anytime soon, get over it.)

OF, Duran, Rafaela, Refsnyder, Abreu, Verdugo

DH, Yoshida (let him play some outfield and rest some of the regulars at DH)

 

Add Duvall and Turner type, both right handed bats that can play all 3 outfield positions (duvall), DH, 1B (Turner)

 

Love to see an upgrade at 2B.

 

As long as our pitching staff gets organized, we can go do everything else. Soto in 2025?

 

We have 80 million dollars to spend this offseason. Why can’t we sign 3 starters and a lhrp?

[moonslav59]

As up and down as Pivetta has been, and there have been some pretty long ups and some very awful downs, hid final numbers haven't changed much with the Sox:

 

2021: 4.53 ERA (4.28 FIP)

2022: 4.56 ERA (4.42)

2023: 4.48 ERA (4.28)

 

His WHIP improved a lot, as did his K/BB ratio:

'21-'22: 1.345 WHIP and 2.54 K/BB

2023: 1.189 and 3.46

 

In 2021, he had a 9 start streak at 3.81 (3.13 FIP.)

In 2022, he had a 20 start streak at 3.62 (3.73 FIP)

In 2023, he went 2 months with a 1.51 ERA (2.42 FIP) in 15 games and 36 IP

 

 

I meant to add:

Pivetta from May 28 to now: 26 gams and 83.1 IP

3.56 ERA and 3.61 FIP

[moonslav59]

We have 80 million dollars to spend this offseason. Why can’t we sign 3 starters and a lhrp?

 

I have it closer to $70M to stay under the second line, but if we cut some salary, somewhere maybe...

 

Even $70M is...

 

$24M AAV SP

+

$22M AAV SP

+

20M AAV SP

+

4M RP

 

We could trade some arb guys like Pivetta or Urias.

Maybe find a taker for Yoshi plus some cash.

Is Sale still wanted by that deranged GM?

 

[notin]

We have 80 million dollars to spend this offseason. Why can’t we sign 3 starters and a lhrp?

 

You can but they won’t be good starters…

[moonslav59]

You can but they won’t be good starters…

 

I know the "hit rate" on big FA SP'er signings is not great, but I think you should be able to get "good starters" for this:

 

$25M x 7 SP

$25M x 6 SP

$25M x 5 SP

$5M x 3 for LH RP

[Maxbialystock]

I know the "hit rate" on big FA SP'er signings is not great, but I think you should be able to get "good starters" for this:

 

$25M x 7 SP

$25M x 6 SP

$25M x 5 SP

$5M x 3 for LH RP

 

To be honest, I consider your numbers to be authoritative.

 

That said, however, you did use the verb "should," which to me means nothing is certain or guaranteed.

 

And here's the problem with that uncertainty. The Sox management seems incapable of figuring out which pitchers are worth--will deliver on--7 x 25, 6 x 25, or 5 x 25.

 

If you think I'm wrong, please name just one 5 x $25M, 6 x $25M, or 7 x $25M starter the Sox hired who actually delivered on that salary.

 

Go ahead. I dare you. I double-dare you.

[Bellhorn04]

To be honest, I consider your numbers to be authoritative.

 

That said, however, you did use the verb "should," which to me means nothing is certain or guaranteed.

 

And here's the problem with that uncertainty. The Sox management seems incapable of figuring out which pitchers are worth--will deliver on--7 x 25, 6 x 25, or 5 x 25.

 

If you think I'm wrong, please name just one 5 x $25M, 6 x $25M, or 7 x $25M starter the Sox hired who actually delivered on that salary.

 

Go ahead. I dare you. I double-dare you.

 

The only 2 who fall into that category are Price and Sale.

[moonslav59]

The only 2 who fall into that category are Price and Sale.

 

And, Sale was not a FA signing.

 

After Price, our highest paid FA signings of SP'ers have been:

 

$82.5M/5 Lackey (forced a trade)

$26.5M/2 Dempster (retired after 1)

$25.5M/3 Clement (got hurt)

 

Nate was an extension at $68M/4.

 

There is hardly a record to judge by, and none have been very recent.

 

Plus, new GM coming, soon!

[moonslav59]

To be honest, I consider your numbers to be authoritative.

 

That said, however, you did use the verb "should," which to me means nothing is certain or guaranteed.

 

And here's the problem with that uncertainty. The Sox management seems incapable of figuring out which pitchers are worth--will deliver on--7 x 25, 6 x 25, or 5 x 25.

 

If you think I'm wrong, please name just one 5 x $25M, 6 x $25M, or 7 x $25M starter the Sox hired who actually delivered on that salary.

 

Go ahead. I dare you. I double-dare you.

 

It's a bit of a dice roll for all GM who signa big FA SP'er this winter.

[Maxbialystock]

No way in hell they're moving him to 1B right now.

 

Agree with you and mvp 78. Leave Devers at 3b and Casas at 1b--right now the two best Sox infield bats by a wide margin. Their defense ain't great, but it's good enough. It's their bats that count.

 

Speaking of which, I'm surprised there has been so little discussion about Story's terrible bat. His defense, I hasten to add, has been pretty doggone good, but the Sox ain't paying him those big bucks to play freaking defense. Good defensive SS's are a dime a dozen.

[Maxbialystock]

It's a bit of a dice roll for all GM who signa big FA SP'er this winter.

 

Agree, but too often the dice seem to be loaded against the Sox so-called brain trust with DD being just the latest example of over-spending for over-taxed arms.

[harmony]

If we get two really good SP'er, I'd be content.

Most teams will be looking for starting pitchers this upcoming offseason.

 

The Red Sox will score a coup if they land “two really good SP’er” near the top of this list:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2021&season=2023

[Bellhorn04]

Agree with you and mvp 78. Leave Devers at 3b and Casas at 1b--right now the two best Sox infield bats by a wide margin. Their defense ain't great, but it's good enough. It's their bats that count.

 

Speaking of which, I'm surprised there has been so little discussion about Story's terrible bat. His defense, I hasten to add, has been pretty doggone good, but the Sox ain't paying him those big bucks to play freaking defense. Good defensive SS's are a dime a dozen.

 

Rest assured no one has said anything good about Story's hitting this year. But it's not uncommon for hitters to struggle for an extended period after coming back from injury.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And, Sale was not a FA signing.

 

 

Sale was the last blockbuster Red Sox trade that Boston actually won: Dec. 16, 2016.

 

That said, I'd like to place an order from harmony's menu. I'll take a #3 (Burnes), and either an #8 or #12 (Alcantara or Cease).

 

I understand these transactions to be cashless, and shortstop-prospect-only.

[notin]

Sale was the last blockbuster Red Sox trade that Boston actually won: Dec. 16, 2016.

 

That said, I'd like to place an order from harmony's menu. I'll take a #3 (Burnes), and either an #8 or #12 (Alcantara or Cease).

 

I understand these transactions to be cashless, and shortstop-prospect-only.

 

Burnes has one year left. Alcantara and Cease are not available.

 

But (I believe) the Brewers have final arb years from both Burnes and Woodruff. If so, it would not be surprising to see them deal one or both…