A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

LOL! But you aren’t sick of finishing last. That’s weird.

 

Another off base assumption based on squat.

 

One can be unhappy and not feel the need to lash out with endless blame cycles.

 

One can be unhappy and not share your same opinion on where to assign blame or how much one single person deserves.

 

What is weird is how you and others make so many false assumptions, despite being called out on it over and over.

 

You persist.

[moonslav59]

But the Red Sox might be better in 2026. At least that is what the hope is, but that might never happen.

 

No doubt. We could be way worse, since there is a pretty wide margin between a .500 team and the Royals and A's.

 

If you want to deny that the outlook seems better, that's fine. (I'm not saying you are, but the amount of time you spend raining on others' optimism makes me wonder.)

 

I've said many times, the future is speculation, but that doesn't mean you don't try to improve the odds on good results, and to me, Bloom has surely improved the 26 and 40 man foundation from when he took over. We had about 18-20 slots in need of great improvement prior to 2020. Last winter we had about 5-7, and Bloom bumbles or avoided improving the most important 2-3 slots.

 

This winter, I see 3 major slots (SP1, SP2, SP4) and maybe 2 moderate needs (LH's RP & Big RH'd bat.) To me, the trend seems to be less and less major needs, but until we fill them all or maybe all but one, we won't be seeing teh results we all hope for.

[mvp 78]

Cora has proven that he can manage effectively and win when he has the right players. So far, Bloom has proven nothing.

 

He can draft hitters.

[mvp 78]

The organization needs an enema.

 

I’d prefer a firing squad, comrade.

[Old Red]

No doubt. We could be way worse, since there is a pretty wide margin between a .500 team and the Royals and A's.

 

If you want to deny that the outlook seems better, that's fine. (I'm not saying you are, but the amount of time you spend raining on others' optimism makes me wonder.)

 

I've said many times, the future is speculation, but that doesn't mean you don't try to improve the odds on good results, and to me, Bloom has surely improved the 26 and 40 man foundation from when he took over. We had about 18-20 slots in need of great improvement prior to 2020. Last winter we had about 5-7, and Bloom bumbles or avoided improving the most important 2-3 slots.

 

This winter, I see 3 major slots (SP1, SP2, SP4) and maybe 2 moderate needs (LH's RP & Big RH'd bat.) To me, the trend seems to be less and less major needs, but until we fill them all or maybe all but one, we won't be seeing teh results we all hope for.

3 out of the last 4 years has rained on my optimism. Just because the farm system has a higher ranking doesn’t necessarily mean the big league club will be so successful. Mookie, Raffy, Bogey, JBJ, Beny, and Vaz won a championship, but that doesn’t mean Casas, Bello, Raf Man, Mayer, and Anthony will, and in the meantime last place in the Div, and not making the postseason is totally unacceptable to many. You shouldn’t have to finish in last place to make the farm system better, but that’s what has happened in 3 out of 4 years with Bloom.

[moonslav59]

3 out of the last 4 years has rained on my optimism. Just because the farm system has a higher ranking doesn’t necessarily mean the big league club will be so successful. Mookie, Raffy, Bogey, JBJ, Beny, and Vaz won a championship, but that doesn’t mean Casas, Bello, Raf Man, Mayer, and Anthony will, and in the meantime last place in the Div, and not making the postseason is totally unacceptable to many. You shouldn’t have to finish in last place to make the farm system better, but that’s what has happened in 3 out of 4 years with Bloom.

 

I've agreed the farm value is speculative. I'm not sure why you keep feeling the need to repeat it to me over and over. We agree. That's a rare things, so let it be.

 

I've never said you have to finish in last to build up the farm or the future. I expected better in 2022 and better in 2023. It did not happen.

 

The budget was part of the issue for a while, but to me, not really since the Story signing, although some claim our fall in the budget rankings is a sign of a change in priority from now to the future (or to JH's wallet.)

 

I'm not just talking about the farm, here. I'm talking about tangible changes to the MLB foundation. The W-L records important, and it bugs me, too, we haven't seen dramatic improvemnt, there, but I'll repost this ....

 

 

Judge for yourself: this was the roster at the end of 2019: (Remember: a team that did not make the playoffs and had already shed Kimbrell & Kelly without replacing them the winter before 2019.)

 

Not brought back from 2019:

Porcello- played some with NYM in 2020, then never pitched again.

Betts & Price- famously traded for Dugo, Wong and Downs.

Holt- played sparingly on 2 teams in 2 years then gone from MLB.

 

Brought back:

ERod- out for all 2020 with COVID

Sale- out for so long, I forgot who he was.

Nate- missed a lot of time and had one somewhat off season when he did pitch.

Brian Johnson

Workman & Hembree (traded by Bloom for Pivetta- they both sucked afterwards)

Josh Taylor- out hurt for a long time

DHern- lol

Cashner, Lakins, Velazquez, Weber, Shawaryn, Brewer, Poyner, T Kelley, Chacin

(You guys act like Bloom took over the 2018 team in full health.)

Vaz and Leon

Moreland and Sam Travis

Marco Hernandez and Chris Owings

Bogey

Devers

Beni (later traded for Wink & Gambrell plus Franchy and others)

JBJ (left via FA after 2020 only to return in a blunder trade)

Gorkys Hernandez

JD

 

That was THE FOUNDATION!

 

Be honest. Look closely at that roster above. Now, look at the foundation for 2024's team. Yup, the rotation is in shambles, but what about the rest?

 

Sure, we don't know how good Casas, Wong and many others will be, but we thought we knew how good Bogey, JD, Nate, Sale, ERod and others would be after 2019, and that turned out to be not as expected.

[moonslav59]

He can draft hitters.

 

...and add a few:

 

Turner

Duvall

Renfroe

[a700hitter]

Another off base assumption based on squat.

 

One can be unhappy and not feel the need to lash out with endless blame cycles.

 

One can be unhappy and not share your same opinion on where to assign blame or how much one single person deserves.

 

What is weird is how you and others make so many false assumptions, despite being called out on it over and over.

 

You persist.

But you aren’t lashing out? You crack me up!

[a700hitter]

I’d prefer a firing squad, comrade.

That’s a bit harsh… and bloody too.

[moonslav59]

But you aren’t lashing out? You crack me up!

 

I don’t claim I never lash out.

 

Not sure why you ask. I’m not making continued false assumptions about your position or thoughts.

 

My point was about a seemingly endless blame cycle that often goes off track in a frenzied bash fest.

[Randy Red Sox]

No doubt. We could be way worse, since there is a pretty wide margin between a .500 team and the Royals and A's.

 

If you want to deny that the outlook seems better, that's fine. (I'm not saying you are, but the amount of time you spend raining on others' optimism makes me wonder.)

 

I've said many times, the future is speculation, but that doesn't mean you don't try to improve the odds on good results, and to me, Bloom has surely improved the 26 and 40 man foundation from when he took over. We had about 18-20 slots in need of great improvement prior to 2020. Last winter we had about 5-7, and Bloom bumbles or avoided improving the most important 2-3 slots.

 

This winter, I see 3 major slots (SP1, SP2, SP4) and maybe 2 moderate needs (LH's RP & Big RH'd bat.) To me, the trend seems to be less and less major needs, but until we fill them all or maybe all but one, we won't be seeing teh results we all hope for.

 

You consider the need for 3 SP as less major needs?

[a700hitter]

I don’t claim I never lash out.

 

Not sure why you ask. I’m not making continued false assumptions about your position or thoughts.

 

My point was about a seemingly endless blame cycle that often goes off track in a frenzied bash fest.

That is your perception.

[Hugh2]

3 out of the last 4 years has rained on my optimism. Just because the farm system has a higher ranking doesn’t necessarily mean the big league club will be so successful. Mookie, Raffy, Bogey, JBJ, Beny, and Vaz won a championship, but that doesn’t mean Casas, Bello, Raf Man, Mayer, and Anthony will, and in the meantime last place in the Div, and not making the postseason is totally unacceptable to many. You shouldn’t have to finish in last place to make the farm system better, but that’s what has happened in 3 out of 4 years with Bloom.

 

In terms of “farm building”

 

There’s a difference between finishing last and getting a top 5 pick, then finishing last and getting the 19th pick.

 

I agree a strong farm alone does you nothing, but the Mets have shown us you just can’t throw money at the problem either.

 

We should not dismiss the strength of this farm and its implications on the future potential of this team. You have to develop players if you want MLB success, you absolutely HAVE too.

 

Now with that said, you have to make good investments at the MLB level as well. The Sox have failed here, Henry and Bloom can share the blame. They need to make better decisions and not be afraid to spend a little money to buy premium players to plug up positions of need.

[Hugh2]

A realistic view of the 2023 season is it’s over for the Sox. Shut guys down, and start holding tryouts for next years team.

[Bellhorn04]

You consider the need for 3 SP as less major needs?

 

Yeah, it's pretty major.

 

How could a team that finishes under .500 2 years in a row* not have major needs?

 

*TBD

[Bellhorn04]

Now with that said, you have to make good investments at the MLB level as well. The Sox have failed here, Henry and Bloom can share the blame. They need to make better decisions and not be afraid to spend a little money to buy premium players to plug up positions of need.

 

Henry might argue that $550 million on Devers, Story and Yoshida is real money spent.

[Bellhorn04]

Cora has proven that he can manage effectively and win when he has the right players. So far, Bloom has proven nothing.

 

Pretty hard to judge Cora's work this year. We all agree that the rotation was ragtag and the defense was lousy. How much of that can be pinned on the manager, how much on the guy who put the roster together.

 

Posters like iortiz say, just to be on the safe side, fire everyone.

[moonslav59]

You consider the need for 3 SP as less major needs?

 

We also needed 3 SP'ers or more SP'ers prior to 2020, 2021 and 2023 plus 3-4 other major needs last winter, 5-7 more in '21 and 8-10 more in 2020.

[moonslav59]

That is your perception.

 

No. It's a fact. I have admitted I lash out and apologized, often, when needed.

 

It's your misconception I claim or think I don't.

 

I suppose you feel you have alternative facts.

 

I say...

 

Yes, of you and the whole naysayer posse.

 

The sky is falling!

 

Blame _____!

 

Blame ____!

 

Blame _____!

 

Rinse and repeat.

LOL!

 

You assume this...

 

But you aren’t sick of finishing last. That’s weird.

 

You still pretend to know what I think and claim my thoughts are just "perceptions." It's your MO.

 

I am sick of finishing last. You can pretend I'm not, but that's your perception, not mine.

Edited September 14, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it's pretty major.

 

How could a team that finishes under .500 2 years in a row* not have major needs?

 

*TBD

 

Tell me what other major needs we have besides...

 

SP 1

SP 2

SP 3

 

Moderate needs:

 

LH RP

RH power bat

 

Sure, we could use some more depth at MI, and improve on RF or CF beyond the RH'd bat I mentioned, but I see 3 major and 2 moderate, and we can be serious contenders.

 

Without Sale

Without certain pitchers in the rotation but in the pen, instead.

Without more than the expected amount of injuries.

 

The 2023 looked to be close, until those 3 major slots took its toll on the team.

 

Yes, we also need improved timely hitting.

 

Yes, our D needs to improve, but it should, anyway, even without any major additions.

 

SS: Story

2B: Urias & Reyes

C & 1B: young players improving

OF: Rafaela (Abreu> Refsnyder/Duran/Yoshi)/ Yoshi to SH

 

Same: 3B, RF

 

How many "major needs" do you see? (I can go along with 5, which is still less than the past 3 winters.)

[Hugh2]

Henry might argue that $550 million on Devers, Story and Yoshida is real money spent.

 

Yes, but the Sox have had an affinity to "spread the money around" which is fine, but sometimes you gotta go big.....and they have not done that. Or at the very least, they have done a s*** poor job of building the rotation. The rotation is just a mix of injury concern, unproven younger talent, and BOTR guys. They have 4 guys on the roster that I think could be fine #4 #5 starters, and that's great because you push 2-3 of those guys to the pen where they can be elite. But having all of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford/Pivetta in the rotation is just a recipee for disaster.

 

If I was emperor of the Red Sox, I'm getting two premium starting pitchers this offseason. Or at the very least ONE top teir guy and someone in that close 2nd teir like Sonny Gray.

 

I would not Hate Gray/SNell

[Hugh2]

Needing Starting pitchers 1,2,3 is a pretty freaking major.

 

I don't think we need that, I think we need 1 and 3. Bello is your #2.

 

If Sale is healthy you have an elite rotation, but you can't bank on that, you take it as a bonus if it happens and go out and get yourself two starting pitchers this offseason.

[moonslav59]

Needing Starting pitchers 1,2,3 is a pretty freaking major.

 

I don't think we need that, I think we need 1 and 3. Bello is your #2.

 

If Sale is healthy you have an elite rotation, but you can't bank on that, you take it as a bonus if it happens and go out and get yourself two starting pitchers this offseason.

 

Should I say "Freaking major?" That does seem closer to the truth. My point was: we have had less and less major needs, every winter since 2019-2020. (Every winter, we needed 3 SP'er or more.)

 

Sorry, I can never count on Sale for even 1 IP, anymore. He can be "depth," of if he is healthy and doing well, than it would help the pen to move my 5th starter (Pivetta or Crawford) to the pen.

 

I'd love to see us have one of the best and deepest pens in MLB, with several 2-3 or even 4 IP guys>

 

8 Man Pen:

Houck, Whitlock & Pivetta or Crawford (which ever is not our #5.)

Wink, Bernardino & Schreiber (7th & 8th)

Martin & Jansen (8th & 9th)

[moonslav59]

Yes, but the Sox have had an affinity to "spread the money around" which is fine, but sometimes you gotta go big.....and they have not done that. Or at the very least, they have done a s*** poor job of building the rotation. The rotation is just a mix of injury concern, unproven younger talent, and BOTR guys. They have 4 guys on the roster that I think could be fine #4 #5 starters, and that's great because you push 2-3 of those guys to the pen where they can be elite. But having all of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford/Pivetta in the rotation is just a recipee for disaster.

 

If I was emperor of the Red Sox, I'm getting two premium starting pitchers this offseason. Or at the very least ONE top teir guy and someone in that close 2nd teir like Sonny Gray.

 

I would not Hate Gray/SNell

 

It's a big step in the right direction, but with injuries and unexpected declines by a SP'er or two (or three,) we'd still end up 2-3 from Houck, Pivetta, Crawford and Whitlock starting significant games in 2024.

 

30 Gray

30 Snell

30 Bello

25 Pivetta

22 Houck

 

25 from whom?

Sale? LOL

It's going to be Crawford or Whitlock or maybe Wikelman by the end of the year.

 

Then, we have Murphy and Walter in the pen, instead of Crawford or Whitlock (or Houck and Pivetta.)

 

We need to plan on zero from Sale, and as few starts as possible from 3 of those 4 guys. (I'd put Pivetta at #5, and use Houck or Crawford as the #6- not both, if possible.)

 

I would not start Whitlock, again, unless as an opener.

[Bellhorn04]

Tell me what other major needs we have besides...

 

SP 1

SP 2

SP 3

 

Moderate needs:

 

LH RP

RH power bat

 

Sure, we could use some more depth at MI, and improve on RF or CF beyond the RH'd bat I mentioned, but I see 3 major and 2 moderate, and we can be serious contenders.

 

Without Sale

Without certain pitchers in the rotation but in the pen, instead.

Without more than the expected amount of injuries.

 

The 2023 looked to be close, until those 3 major slots took its toll on the team.

 

Yes, we also need improved timely hitting.

 

Yes, our D needs to improve, but it should, anyway, even without any major additions.

 

SS: Story

2B: Urias & Reyes

C & 1B: young players improving

OF: Rafaela (Abreu> Refsnyder/Duran/Yoshi)/ Yoshi to SH

 

Same: 3B, RF

 

How many "major needs" do you see? (I can go along with 5, which is still less than the past 3 winters.)

 

Some would argue the problem is we don't have a single star player. Devers has the highest fWAR at 2.8. His defense is a drag on his value. Story's offense has been a drag on his value. And so on.

 

Maybe building for 2025-2026 really is the sensible approach.

[mvp 78]

Pretty hard to judge Cora's work this year. We all agree that the rotation was ragtag and the defense was lousy. How much of that can be pinned on the manager, how much on the guy who put the roster together.

 

Posters like iortiz say, just to be on the safe side, fire everyone.

 

Cora is a decent manager and I don't know what kind of miracles we expected out of him when that's the rotation he was given. The bullpen was 3rd in innings pitched and overall compares favorably to Tampa Bay's.

[mvp 78]

Some would argue the problem is we don't have a single star player. Devers has the highest fWAR at 2.8. His defense is a drag on his value. Story's offense has been a drag on his value. And so on.

 

Maybe building for 2025-2026 really is the sensible approach.

Are people already punting on 2024?

[Old Red]

Are people already punting on 2024?

 

Yea why don’t we just waste away some more of Raffy’s prime years not to mention why signed Yoshida, or Story. Nothing like a 7 year rebuild to appease the fans along the way.

[mvp 78]

Yea why don’t we just waste away some more of Raffy’s prime years not to mention why signed Yoshida, or Story. Nothing like a 7 year rebuild to appease the fans along the way.

 

Shouldn't signing a #1 SP, a #3 SP and simply having Story SS/Rafaela CF/ Abreu LF provide much better defense make them much closer to being contenders???

 

Did I take my crazy pills today?

 

Yamamoto

Bello

Montgomery

Crawford

Sale

 

That should be a good enough rotation.

 

Wong C

Casas 1B

Reyes 2B

Story SS

Devers 3B

Abreu LF

Rafaela CF

Verdugo RF

Yoshida DH

 

That's a much stronger defensive unit, especially up the middle.

 

How long is this f***ing bridge? With a good rotation and a defensive SS, they should have been able to compete this year. Why can't they be better after tweaking the roster this offseason? Are people just assuming Bloom can't do it? Or are people assuming the Sox won't do it?

[Old Red]

Shouldn't signing a #1 SP, a #3 SP and simply having Story SS/Rafaela CF/ Abreu LF provide much better defense make them much closer to being contenders???

 

Did I take my crazy pills today?

 

Yamamoto

Bello

Montgomery

Crawford

Sale

 

That should be a good enough rotation.

 

Wong C

Casas 1B

Reyes 2B

Story SS

Devers 3B

Abreu LF

Rafaela CF

Verdugo RF

Yoshida DH

 

That's a much stronger defensive unit, especially up the middle.

 

How long is this f***ing bridge? With a good rotation and a defensive SS, they should have been able to compete this year. Why can't they be better after tweaking the roster this offseason? Are people just assuming Bloom can't do it? Or are people assuming the Sox won't do it?

I’ll believe Bloom adds good pieces to the rotation when I see it, and not until then. He might wait to get out from under Sale’s contract. A crazy pill would be counting on anything from Frail again in the rotation though.